Talking Stocks 2.0

[7sins]

I was working DOUBLE OVERTIME for all of us on Sunday supporting SOFI and HZAC/VIVID. Hell of an experience, must be why SOFIW is positive 15% today lol

[logo]

Nice! Rolling Stones put on a great show, had the chance to see them almost 20 years ago now in Toronto with AC/DC, Rush, for the whole SARS-stock thing at the time.

Was actually looking at RHCP tickets for LA and was baffled that floor seats were already going for $500+ already. I'll watch and wait..... buy high is what they say right?

[7sins]

Originally Posted by chsu74

@7sins Following the TSM rabbit hole here and I like ASML so looking for your thoughts on a potential play.

ASML is the only manufacturer of equipment size of buses to print etchings on these 5 nm chips. Listen to minute 15:30. Maybe LRCX is going to get in on it as well.

https://youtu.be/GU87SH5e0eI

It appears that the world if going to build 55 new fabs in the world over the next 4 years. US maybe doubling their new fabs over the next 10 years. I think their order book is gonna be lengthy. ASML and LRCX both report their qtrs on Thu?

I've posted about ASML here on A LOT, it is one of my favorite companies, my only issue is it is VERY expensive and IV is absurd for options. I think the move here is to play covered calls. My research showed ~36 month backlog for ASML which really means the majority of their revenue is accounted for not leaving significant growth as the machines are very time consuming to make. They are THE leader in the space with an incredibly wide MOAT and high barriers to entry. I wouldn't chase them here, I would buy on any dips and know they are essentially the backbone to the chip industry. I'm not too familiar with LRCX, looked more into AMAT and MRVL but I am looking more for dislocations in the space and a few other off the wall ideas.

Originally Posted by logo

Nice! Rolling Stones put on a great show, had the chance to see them almost 20 years ago now in Toronto with AC/DC, Rush, for the whole SARS-stock thing at the time.

Was actually looking at RHCP tickets for LA and was baffled that floor seats were already going for $500+ already. I'll watch and wait..... buy high is what they say right?

I saw RHCP here in LA 3 years ago, I am a HUGE RHCP fan but the concert IMO was pretty disappointing and they only jammed for less than 90 minutes. Maybe an unfair comparison to Bruce Springsteen who played for over 4 hours, that was a great concert. DEFINITELY could see the toll of decades of drug abuse haha but being such a fan growing up it was a little disappointing. If you go, make sure you buy the tix on vivid haha! SUPPORT THE CAUSE BOYS.

LMK if you make it out to LA, drinks of me!

[7sins]

More good news for SOFI today, entered partnership with Pagaya, busting through $20, hope some of you got in when we were discussing sub $16! I am keeping most of my position, trimmed about 10% of my warrants at $20sp for nice gains and add to cash position.

SoFi enters into partnership with Pagaya to expand financial services
Oct. 18, 2021 11:03 AM ETSoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI)By: Preeti Singh, SA News Editor3 Comments
SoFi Technologies (SOFI +5.4%), a financial services company, has entered into a partnership with Pagaya Technologies, a financial technology company.
Under the partnership, SoFi will be able to expand financial products offered to its members, adding Pagaya's proprietary artificial intelligence, technology and infrastructure.
Pagaya allows fintech companies, banks and other loan providers to access more financial products outside conventional credit models.
This latest partnership is the largest deployment of Pagaya's technology so far in the fintech marketplace.
SoFi's Chief Executive Officer Anthony Noto said: "We are excited to leverage SoFi’s sophisticated tech platform, strong brand, and consumer appeal to originate loans through Pagaya’s AI network, extending its business to a broader audience, so more people can access credit and achieve their financial goals."
SOFI shares raised over 25% in over a month.
Last month, in a bullish analysis, Leo Imasuen stated that future catalysts and continued operational momentum should see SOFI shares recover.

[logo]

Originally Posted by 7sins

I saw RHCP here in LA 3 years ago, I am a HUGE RHCP fan but the concert IMO was pretty disappointing and they only jammed for less than 90 minutes. Maybe an unfair comparison to Bruce Springsteen who played for over 4 hours, that was a great concert. DEFINITELY could see the toll of decades of drug abuse haha but being such a fan growing up it was a little disappointing. If you go, make sure you buy the tix on vivid haha! SUPPORT THE CAUSE BOYS.

LMK if you make it out to LA, drinks of me!

Yeah they are my all time favorite - John is my favorite guitar player ever. I've seen them live in a few places, and every time kinda the same - lots of Flea/Chad energy, Anthony jams in his own world without much crowd interaction which is kind of a downer, and the concert as a whole entirely hinges on whether John is there. The last ones with Josh were ok as a fill-in, but it's not a true RHCP concert unless there are a few 20 minute jams between flea/chad/John and you forget what universe you are in. Glad he' back.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 7sins

More good news for SOFI today, entered partnership with Pagaya, busting through $20, hope some of you got in when we were discussing sub $16! I am keeping most of my position, trimmed about 10% of my warrants at $20sp for nice gains and add to cash position.

SoFi enters into partnership with Pagaya to expand financial services
Oct. 18, 2021 11:03 AM ETSoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI)By: Preeti Singh, SA News Editor3 Comments
SoFi Technologies (SOFI +5.4%), a financial services company, has entered into a partnership with Pagaya Technologies, a financial technology company.
Under the partnership, SoFi will be able to expand financial products offered to its members, adding Pagaya's proprietary artificial intelligence, technology and infrastructure.
Pagaya allows fintech companies, banks and other loan providers to access more financial products outside conventional credit models.
This latest partnership is the largest deployment of Pagaya's technology so far in the fintech marketplace.
SoFi's Chief Executive Officer Anthony Noto said: "We are excited to leverage SoFi’s sophisticated tech platform, strong brand, and consumer appeal to originate loans through Pagaya’s AI network, extending its business to a broader audience, so more people can access credit and achieve their financial goals."
SOFI shares raised over 25% in over a month.
Last month, in a bullish analysis, Leo Imasuen stated that future catalysts and continued operational momentum should see SOFI shares recover.

my biggest position now. i sold my jan 22 calls last week in case there was a pullback, even though i felt like it still had some more room and i initially bought them to play the bank charter news but i've been burned too many times from not selling 100%+ gains, so i'm ready to add. gave up on baba also and took that fat L and stuck it all in sofi at around 16 so slowly making those losses back lol

[7sins]

Originally Posted by huncho

my biggest position now. i sold my jan 22 calls last week in case there was a pullback, even though i felt like it still had some more room and i initially bought them to play the bank charter news but i've been burned too many times from not selling 100%+ gains, so i'm ready to add. gave up on baba also and took that fat L and stuck it all in sofi at around 16 so slowly making those losses back lol

Lol good for you brother, this was an absolute home run and congrats on the trade. I don't think any of us anticipated the magnitude of this momentum. I took some gains here and will at 22.5 and 25 because I know if I don't it will be down 30% next day

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by huncho

my biggest position now. i sold my jan 22 calls last week in case there was a pullback, even though i felt like it still had some more room and i initially bought them to play the bank charter news but i've been burned too many times from not selling 100%+ gains, so i'm ready to add. gave up on baba also and took that fat L and stuck it all in sofi at around 16 so slowly making those losses back lol

Congrats! My SOFI got called away at $18 so left money on the table. LCID is making a run here with delivery date being announced soon so it don’t hurt so bad..

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Lol good for you brother, this was an absolute home run and congrats on the trade. I don't think any of us anticipated the magnitude of this momentum. I took some gains here and will at 22.5 and 25 because I know if I don't it will be down 30% next day

Originally Posted by chsu74

Congrats! My SOFI got called away at $18 so left money on the table. LCID is making a run here with delivery date being announced soon so it don’t hurt so bad..

yeah i think it was hard to expect it to break 20 this quick and especially in this market where all gains seem to get erased. regardless though i can now just sit comfy on all the 2023/2024s i have and if there's a dip i'll add some more short term calls. still think the bank charter pushes it to 25+ upon announcement and don't really see what else is worth buying right now anyway

i wanted to buy coin leaps last week at the 240s but i wanted to hold the sofi calls 1 more day and ended up being 1 day too late, 240 to 295 in 3 trading days lol, those leaps would be up like 75% now

now just gonna watch bbig get manipulated all week and be disappointed

[huncho]

Originally Posted by chsu74

Congrats! My SOFI got called away at $18 so left money on the table. LCID is making a run here with delivery date being announced soon so it don’t hurt so bad..

all your sofi or you still have some?

[chsu74]

Evergrande is to formally enter into default Oct 23

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...rce=reddit.com

Asia & Pacific
As Evergrande collapse looms, other Chinese developers warn of default
By Eva Dou
October 12, 2021 at 4:55 a.m. EDT

A growing number of Chinese property developers are saying they can’t pay their debts, raising concerns of financial contagion as troubled property developer Evergrande Group missed another interest payment to bondholders on Tuesday.

Several Chinese real estate developers have warned of defaults on bonds in recent days, including Modern Land and Sinic Holdings, which said Monday it probably would be unable to repay a $250 million bond by the Oct 18 due date.
Evergrande, the world’s most indebted property developer, is set to formally enter default on Oct. 23, when the grace period ends for its first missed bond payment. On Tuesday, the company missed a third round of payments, bondholders confirmed to the ­Reuters news agency, intensifying investor jitters.

Fears over an Evergrande collapse have caused Chinese property developers’ bonds to slump, as investors pull their money to safer quarters. The company’s troubles have made it harder for its peers to raise new funds or refinance, prompting some to announce they cannot meet their payments.
China’s ‘controlled demolition’ plan for Evergrande marks the end of its housing boom
Modern Land, a Beijing-based property developer, asked investors on Monday to allow it to delay repayment of a $250 million bond for three months “to avoid any potential payment default.”
Last week, Shenzhen-based developer Fantasia Holdings Group failed to pay back a $206 million bond, citing the effects of the pandemic, industry regulations and the economy.
The sum of Chinese real estate companies’ bond defaults more than doubled this year, to $7.2 billion as of Sept. 27, from $2.8 billion a year earlier, according to property research center CRIC.

The crisis has revived memories of Lehman Brothers’ collapse in 2008, which sparked a global financial crisis. Economists so far have played down the comparison, saying that while Beijing may let Evergrande and certain other companies fail as a warning to others, the government is unlikely to allow widespread economic fallout.
“Its spillover impact appears largely manageable,” investment bank UBS said in a research note Monday, noting that there were signs from Chinese authorities that they would help limit the fallout.

In China, apportionment of blame has begun. After online allegations that he was among those at fault, Ren Zeping, Evergrande’s former chief economist, declared that he had warned the company about its risks.

Ren wrote on the Chinese social media platform WeChat on Monday that not long after joining Evergrande, he had called for the company to reduce its level of debt and tighten its focus, but that he had received internal criticism from other executives.
“I planned to make a difference, but I encountered a setback,” he wrote. “It was a big blow to me.”
Evergrande and Ren did not respond to requests for comment on Tuesday.
China’s Evergrande veers toward default — and a $300 billion global shock
Although Evergrande’s collapse is unlikely to snowball into a global financial crisis, it will be a blow to China’s economy because of the outsize role of the real estate sector. Other countries will feel knock-on effects of an economic slowdown in China.

Last month, Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for China’s economic growth in 2021 to 7.8 percent from 8.2 percent, citing uncertainty over Evergrande, as well as energy shortages.
Evergrande’s $305 billion in debt is around 2 percent of China’s gross domestic product. The property sector drives about 25 percent of China’s economy, directly or indirectly, according to UBS.
The Evergrande crisis has come at a time when China’s leadership has turned against the country’s corporate giants, cracking down on business titans including Alibaba founder Jack Ma. The campaign has fueled uncertainty, as it is unclear how much pain Beijing will be prepared to inflict to teach property developers a lesson, before it steps in to limit contagion.
Story continues below advertisement
Analysts say Beijing is unlikely to bail out Evergrande, with UBS calling a restructuring of the company “inevitable.”

Christian Shepherd and Alicia Chen in Taipei, Taiwan, contributed to this report

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by huncho

all your sofi or you still have some?

All gone. Had left 1K shares long after selling my original batch of $17.5 calls but decided to avg up my $17.5C premium up to $0.50.. Cryin in the corner.

Thought about buying some this morning at $19.25 then got distracted. Will wait for a pull back I guess. My list of letting tickers go early is matching the level growing disappointment in myself...

[huncho]

Originally Posted by chsu74

All gone. Had left 1K shares long after selling my original batch of $17.5 calls but decided to avg up my $17.5C premium up to $0.50.. Cryin in the corner.

Thought about buying some this morning at $19.25 then got distracted. Will wait for a pull back I guess. My list of letting tickers go early is matching the level growing disappointment in myself...

lol i'm the complete opposite. hold on to gains for too long and then get burned. trying to get better at it but unfortunately the only way to learn here is the hard way

[Spartacus]

Anyone else riding the Afrm rollercoaster ?

[hkuo]

Originally Posted by Spartacus

Anyone else riding the Afrm rollercoaster ?

I sold out of my AFRM Nov 19 2021 $150c today. I’ve been watching TSLA calls for the past week and it’s been crazy to see how much that’s been going up almost on a daily basis.

[MrGoat]

Anybody know what is going on with BBIG?


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[chsu74]

Originally Posted by 7sins

I was working DOUBLE OVERTIME for all of us on Sunday supporting SOFI and HZAC/VIVID. Hell of an experience, must be why SOFIW is positive 15% today lol

Sweet! Saw them at the Carrier Dome in Syracuse in the early 90s. Mick puts on a great show. The 70s Stones remain one of my favorites. Must have bought Exile on Main St close to 10 times as they grow legs or get scratched..

[huncho]

Originally Posted by MrGoat

Anybody know what is going on with BBIG?


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i think everyone is waiting for the details of the spinoff/dividends. supposed to come any day now because the record date is friday, but with their management and PR who knows

[spurwar]

Originally Posted by 7sins

I was working DOUBLE OVERTIME for all of us on Sunday supporting SOFI and HZAC/VIVID. Hell of an experience, must be why SOFIW is positive 15% today lol

Not sure if you brought your SO to the concert but you could potentially have a trifecta with COTY! Appreciate you doing your part :)

[jaisonline]

Nice day for HZA… errr I mean SEAT warrants.

I did trim some positions in my portfolio (PENN, TMRC, DOCS, WEBR, & DKNG). Profits are profits.

[huncho]

bbig down 25% after hours

[MrGoat]

Originally Posted by huncho

bbig down 25% after hours

Oops. Prolly shouldn’t have bought back in on the run a few days ago. Did they release news or something?


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[huncho]

Originally Posted by MrGoat

Oops. Prolly shouldn’t have bought back in on the run a few days ago. Did they release news or something?


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spinoff record date moved from 10/22 to 12/27

[logo]

Originally Posted by huncho

spinoff record date moved from 10/22 to 12/27

[MrGoat]

Originally Posted by huncho

spinoff record date moved from 10/22 to 12/27

So what’s you guys plan, holding till the end of the year?


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[logo]

Originally Posted by MrGoat

So what’s you guys plan, holding till the end of the year?


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Planning to hold, hoping it moons to 15 somehow and I sell lol.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by MrGoat

So what’s you guys plan, holding till the end of the year?


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nothing has changed for me, think it's a huge overreaction because everything still remains as is in terms of valuations. just a bummer that every week is such a back and forth and gotta have that capital locked up for a while

i do feel like there have been a lot of red flags from the company so far though, just don't wanna sell at a low when we've been over 9+ so many times

[logo]

So did anyone ride those DWAC warrants for 2000% gain today lol? I did not.

[jaisonline]

Originally Posted by logo

So did anyone ride those DWAC warrants for 2000% gain today lol? I did not.

I first noticed the DWAC and DWAC warrants volume and Twitter buzz at 6:30am. Didn’t buy a single share because thought it was overpriced at $15. Friends of mine bought in at $20. Too bad they don’t trade warrants.

Wow. What a gain for those who bought it.

On the flip side, I’m still holding my SEAT warrants that cost on avg $1.58 :)

[AshCashEmAll]

Originally Posted by logo

So did anyone ride those DWAC warrants for 2000% gain today lol? I did not.

I did. Only $700 worth cause I didn’t feel like getting burned again


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