Supply, Demand, & COVID-19

[ras47]

OMG, the Apple Stores are closed until the 27th! NOW I'm taking this to panic mode!!

[F1polesitter]

Originally Posted by ras47

"Oh no, it's SARS!!"



"Oh no, it's the Bird Flu!!"



"Oh no, it's Swine Flu!!'



"Oh, no, it's ebola!!"



**Yawn**

You’re right... except none of those caused entire countries to shut down, and cancellation of all professional sports.

Yup, it’s all a hoax. Keep holding that opinion.


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[gxd905]

Not a hoax, but waaaaay waaaaaay overblown. Hysteria with this thing is completely absurd compared to other previous "pandemics".

[NachoNeal]

Originally Posted by ras47

OMG, the Apple Stores are closed until the 27th! NOW I'm taking this to panic mode!!

That gave me a good chuckle.

[jvb.nc]

i read something today that sat with me. i’m paraphrasing, but it went sort of like this:

“anything we do today, before a pandemic, will be seen as alarmist.
anything we do after the pandemic will be seen as ineffectual.”

[gxd905]

Same. Nike and Converse retail outlets closed until the 27th! My feet will suffer! Funny thing is, probably low on inventory since their supply chain is yep you guessed it, China. They need a couple weeks to replenish stock? Oh, and I forgot their public statement was that they are worried about the health of their employees for the next 2 weeks!

[ras47]

Originally Posted by F1polesitter

You’re right... except none of those caused entire countries to shut down, and cancellation of all professional sports.

Yup, it’s all a hoax. Keep holding that opinion.


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It's not a hoax and it (like all others) needs to be handled with diligence and caution. But the media hype is out of control. People are going all Mad Max survivalist when washing your hands often is still the best defense.

Supermarkets are loving the panic. Produce shelves are empty. I don't know what percentage of their produce gets thrown out regularly, but that's not a problem now. Milk and eggs are gone too. I think the run on toilet paper is pretty funny. It amazes me what folks think is a must-have for the impending apocalypse. :)

[logo]

Originally Posted by gxd905

Not a hoax, but waaaaay waaaaaay overblown. Hysteria with this thing is completely absurd compared to other previous "pandemics".

While everyone gets an opinion, thankfully some are always wrong. Here’s one of them.

I urge everyone here to stay home as much as possible, social distancing is absolutely necessary.

[jvb.nc]

Originally Posted by logo

While everyone gets an opinion, thankfully some are always wrong. Here’s one of them.

I urge everyone here to stay home as much as possible, social distancing is absolutely necessary.

i hate to agree with you. but i do.

[illiguy]

Originally Posted by ss oyster

why is this in the “rolex” section?


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+1

[JCZ5]

Originally Posted by jvb.nc

i read something today that sat with me. i’m paraphrasing, but it went sort of like this:

“anything we do today, before a pandemic, will be seen as alarmist.
anything we do after the pandemic will be seen as ineffectual.”

Ah thanks for posting! I read that a few days ago and was trying to find the verbiage again.


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[djgallo]

Originally Posted by c41006

Wouldn't it be hilarious if all of this caused prices to shoot up even higher

It could happen.....anything is possible....

Originally Posted by gxd905

Not a hoax, but waaaaay waaaaaay overblown. Hysteria with this thing is completely absurd compared to other previous "pandemics".

Unless you have a crystal ball (i know you don’t) .....let’s wait to see.....

[petenyc]

Originally Posted by SS Oyster

I think it might be better to wish a safe, healthy and speedy return for all of us.


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[Yess]

Why don't businesses say they have shut-down indefinitely? Does it sound to final?
I feel like saying you're reopening on the 27th seems like you think it will just blow over/you know something the rest of us don't.
Why not the 28th? Or the 26th? Or something equally arbitrary?

[richpuer]

In light of this pandemic, I called my local AD to inform her that i was ready and willing to purchase a Daytona should someone cancel or if one came in she can just run my card right away. She said ok and I asked what came in anyway and she said they only got in a few djs, ym, and tt subs. I’m hoping I get the call soon.


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[Chaching]

Well once the DOW goes to 10k this week ... ya’ll will be liquidating those over priced $25k Daytonas for Retail! I predict a major fall in pricing .... liquidity is going away folks!

[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by Sailaway

Do I care? Not one bit right now..... Day to day life is the challenge now and for the foreseeable future in large European countries, including Switzerland.... Just my view from Spain. Good luck to all those affected by this virus.

Scary stuff best wishes to you!

I wasn't even tracking issues in Switzerland there could be an offsetting impact to production unless they already have vaults full of these things.

[YGRLX]

Originally Posted by Chaching

Well once the DOW goes to 10k this week ... ya’ll will be liquidating those over priced $25k Daytonas for Retail!

+1 but maybe lower

[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by YGRLX

+1 but maybe lower

I don't even want to look this week...

[F1polesitter]

Originally Posted by ras47

It's not a hoax and it (like all others) needs to be handled with diligence and caution. But the media hype is out of control. People are going all Mad Max survivalist when washing your hands often is still the best defense.



Supermarkets are loving the panic. Produce shelves are empty. I don't know what percentage of their produce gets thrown out regularly, but that's not a problem now. Milk and eggs are gone too. I think the run on toilet paper is pretty funny. It amazes me what folks think is a must-have for the impending apocalypse. :)

I agree that it does seem a bit overblown. And the toilet paper thing really baffles me. But i guess it is what it is. Countries that have taken the self-isolation route has slowed the rate of spread. So when this thing blows over, if these actions seem alarmist, it was likely effective.

Time will tell.


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[gxd905]

djgallo: no one has that crystal ball of course but....literally shutting down the number 1 economy in the world over less than 50 deaths since it started in China in November? Cmon man, really? I am sympathetic to anyone dying for any reason, but again, the numbers just don't add up here. Incomprehensible.

[djgallo]

Originally Posted by gxd905

djgallo: no one has that crystal ball of course but....literally shutting down the number 1 economy in the world over less than 50 deaths since it started in China in November? Cmon man, really? I am sympathetic to anyone dying for any reason, but again, the numbers just don't add up here. Incomprehensible.

Do yourself a favor and educate yourself on this topic here: https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=721835

[Special-K7]

This is all bogus. All the while people on this forum are listing watches at a high premium.

[psv]

AD in the US will close within 1-3 weeks. It is just a matter of time before news about the real situation gets known.

[soxfan39]

Originally Posted by F1polesitter

I agree that it does seem a bit overblown. And the toilet paper thing really baffles me. But i guess it is what it is. Countries that have taken the self-isolation route has slowed the rate of spread. So when this thing blows over, if these actions seem alarmist, it was likely effective.

Time will tell.


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I don't understand why no one "gets" stockpiling of toilet paper. If you're quarantined or stuck in your house for 3-4 weeks or longer you want enough toilet paper to wipe your ass. Duh. :-)

[gxd905]

djgallo: Thanks for the tip. I stand by my opinion based only on the facts (coming from the CDC and WHO) as we know them today. Do yourself a favor and consider the facts I laid out. Let's hope I'm right.

[CFR]

Originally Posted by gxd905

djgallo: Thanks for the tip. I stand by my opinion based only on the facts (coming from the CDC and WHO) as we know them today. Do yourself a favor and consider the facts I laid out. Let's hope I'm right.

The CDC recommends no gatherings of >50 people for the next 8 weeks throughout the US. How, if at all, does that influence your opinion?

[10klakes]

Tbh- who cares about flippers or their appetite to buy or exploit this community?

They don’t have a place in the collector/enthusiast world, and IMO take away from the enjoyment.

I doubt Rolex is shipping any watches, heck- they couldn’t if they wanted (interruption to the shipping processes). I bet they are shutting down manufacturing, not shipping anything, and ADs will see nothing for a while.

Enjoy your watches, take care of your family, and I wish you all the best. Happy to be here and enjoy this as a brief distraction from reality.

[gxd905]

djgallo: it doesn't. That is the CDC opinion, not the facts. Fauci, the CDC virologist also suggested today he would like to see a 14 day "national shutdown". His opinion and he is entitled to it. Again, doesn't change the facts one bit nor my opinion. I've been wrong many times before, but on this one, I sure hope I'm right for a change for the good of all of us! That said, I wouldn't be surprised to see some kind of formal national shutdown. Again, just my opinion that the threat far outweighs any real damage. Stay safe and healthy!

OP: To your original question, again I think Supply over the next several weeks remains fairly consistent to our current state. Demand may slide a bit from all of the uncertainty but should pick up again after this dust storm settles.

[Equity]

PBI yesterday.


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