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Old 26 August 2022, 07:23 AM   #61
77T
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I tend to agree with those who opined the Rolex sellers in China are doing the logical thing.

That is, sell at the top or just after the top of the market. They don’t necessarily need to spend the cash - maybe just putting the gains into a hedge to outlast a future slump.

I did that late last year with my Platona. Since then, the market has come down a bit.
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Old 26 August 2022, 08:21 AM   #62
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covid lockdowns affecting their outlook??
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Old 26 August 2022, 08:53 AM   #63
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There are selling while the getting’s good; they think prices will fall further.

You may get out of that Sub you got at retail without taking a loss.
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Old 26 August 2022, 02:01 PM   #64
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A Rolex is a Chinese Automatic Teller Machine. Cash at the ready.
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Old 26 August 2022, 11:52 PM   #65
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I didn't see any differences between the US and China. All of the pre-owned market drops a lot now. And will drop more in the future.
If we keep buying watches in AD only, the grey market would drop even faster.
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Old 27 August 2022, 12:23 AM   #66
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"Hanging on in quiet desperation is the Chinese way
The time is gone, the song is over, thought I'd something more to say"


I think, the hype is over. Out there, in the age of lockdowns and online meetings, no one needs these luxury watches anymore. IMO they never had enthaustical feelings to these watches, they just bought them because they could. Now that they don't see any point in owning these, maybe they simply sell these unnecessary things without heartache.
I agree. I haven't worn a watch in 2+ years now despite having a drawer full. Actually I no longer look to buy.
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Old 27 August 2022, 01:58 AM   #67
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I agree. I haven't worn a watch in 2+ years now despite having a drawer full. Actually I no longer look to buy.
What?! What kind of watch fan are you!

These "lockdowns" weren't really lockdowns around here, mostly suggestions. It didn't my life changed at all, other than some restaurants offering food to-go only during the height of the panic. I continued to go out daily, even if only to run errands or get some some air.

And I'm still WFH for the most part - yet still enjoy wearing a watch. Must ask yourself: Am I wearing that watch to impress others?
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Old 27 August 2022, 02:16 AM   #68
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Old 27 August 2022, 02:46 AM   #69
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Why are the Americans rob a supermarket? 🧐

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Old 27 August 2022, 03:00 AM   #70
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What?! What kind of watch fan are you!

These "lockdowns" weren't really lockdowns around here, mostly suggestions. It didn't my life changed at all, other than some restaurants offering food to-go only during the height of the panic. I continued to go out daily, even if only to run errands or get some some air.

And I'm still WFH for the most part - yet still enjoy wearing a watch. Must ask yourself: Am I wearing that watch to impress others?
Same. I've always been WFH and my job became far busier since the pandemic. As for the watches, I wear them for myself. I can't stop looking at mine when I wear any of them.
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Old 27 August 2022, 03:10 AM   #71
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What?! What kind of watch fan are you!

These "lockdowns" weren't really lockdowns around here, mostly suggestions. It didn't my life changed at all, other than some restaurants offering food to-go only during the height of the panic. I continued to go out daily, even if only to run errands or get some some air.

And I'm still WFH for the most part - yet still enjoy wearing a watch. Must ask yourself: Am I wearing that watch to impress others?
As the old saying goes

"Buy a Rolex to impress others, buy a Grand Seiko to impress yourself":
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Old 27 August 2022, 06:09 AM   #72
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As the old saying goes

"Buy a Rolex to impress others, buy a Grand Seiko to impress yourself":
Well, that's the wrong saying, only applicable to nouveau riche people.

I believe here everyone will agree to disagree!

I can't stop looking at my rolex(s) and this has been happening since my father gave me his 6538/0, it was for my 16th bday, too long ago.

Look it up, I'm sure you have no clue whatsoever what a 6538/0 is.
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Old 27 August 2022, 10:04 AM   #73
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As the old saying goes

"Buy a Rolex to impress others, buy a Grand Seiko to impress yourself":
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Old 27 August 2022, 10:51 AM   #74
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Look it up, I'm sure you have no clue whatsoever what a 6538/0 is.
I had no idea. Glad Google images could help me. Very cool
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Old 27 August 2022, 02:02 PM   #75
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Things are bad in China, and they will get worse before they enter a long period of stagnation. China is in the same place Japan was in the 1980s in terms of high personal/corporate debt and a rapidly aging population.
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Old 27 August 2022, 06:33 PM   #76
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to buy Pateks and APs ;)
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Old 27 August 2022, 11:22 PM   #77
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Originally Posted by RichardBartlett View Post
As the old saying goes

"Buy a Rolex to impress others, buy a Grand Seiko to impress yourself":

It's funny because I feel like GS hype is stronger than Rolex hype at this point. And sadly for GS fans, GS is raising prices at a much higher rate than Rolex. I've been a long term Seiko fan, and owner, but I've never had as much of a horological letdown as I did the first time I made it to a GS AD. I walked in ready to buy an Omiwatari and walked out thinking I'd dodged a bullet since I'd almost ordered online. Every other watch I own I feel like the pictures don't do them justice. In real life they are more intricate and beautiful. The GS was the opposite. I was like, "This is the dial everyone loses their minds over? This?!". Even the spring drive sweep was barely noticeable in real life, unlike the macro photography videos I'd watched again and again. Had to jump off the hype train then and there, couldn't wait until the next station ;)


But back on track here... if Zeihan is even 25% correct in his predictions, the Chinese are headed for a cliff and selling off luxury watches is soooo far from their biggest problem. The ironic thing might be that such items could potentially be their best assets, given their global market. The value of Chinese currency or property may plummet in coming years, but those watches should at least stay constant.
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Old 27 August 2022, 11:50 PM   #78
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I feel like a lot of people on TRF (and especially social media platforms) make comments with *certainty* about China (and other countries) without ever even stepping foot in said country, possibly even the entire continent. It's pretty wild what people at times conclude, when in reality, they haven't a clue.

Comes across like the guy who wants to give travel advice since he's an 'extensive traveler', but his resume consists of a multiple US states and 5 cruises to the Caribbean
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Old 28 August 2022, 12:03 AM   #79
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Originally Posted by amh View Post
These "lockdowns" weren't really lockdowns around here, mostly suggestions. It didn't my life changed at all, other than some restaurants offering food to-go only during the height of the panic. I continued to go out daily, even if only to run errands or get some some air.

Must ask yourself: Am I wearing that watch to impress others?[/B]

+1

Been wearing a Rolex watch since I was 18. Now 51, I wear it daily regardless of where I am or what I am doing or who I am seeing or not seeing.
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Old 28 August 2022, 10:21 AM   #80
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Can't eat a Rolex...Can sell a Rolex, buy rice & eat!
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Old 28 August 2022, 10:39 AM   #81
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It's funny because I feel like GS hype is stronger than Rolex hype at this point. And sadly for GS fans, GS is raising prices at a much higher rate than Rolex. I've been a long term Seiko fan, and owner, but I've never had as much of a horological letdown as I did the first time I made it to a GS AD. I walked in ready to buy an Omiwatari and walked out thinking I'd dodged a bullet since I'd almost ordered online. Every other watch I own I feel like the pictures don't do them justice. In real life they are more intricate and beautiful. The GS was the opposite. I was like, "This is the dial everyone loses their minds over? This?!". Even the spring drive sweep was barely noticeable in real life, unlike the macro photography videos I'd watched again and again. Had to jump off the hype train then and there, couldn't wait until the next station ;)


But back on track here... if Zeihan is even 25% correct in his predictions, the Chinese are headed for a cliff and selling off luxury watches is soooo far from their biggest problem. The ironic thing might be that such items could potentially be their best assets, given their global market. The value of Chinese currency or property may plummet in coming years, but those watches should at least stay constant.
I've always found the Grand Seiko designs slightly incoherent and busy looking.

They remind me of the top of the range watches that mid tier brands like Omega, IWC, Universal used to have where they overcompensated on design elements to show how luxurious it was.
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Old 28 August 2022, 10:53 AM   #82
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I've always found the Grand Seiko designs slightly incoherent and busy looking.

They remind me of the top of the range watches that mid tier brands like Omega, IWC, Universal used to have where they overcompensated on design elements to show how luxurious it was.
I've always thought this as well - but it's seemingly Verboten to say anything bad about Grand Seiko.

What you're supposed to think:

- If you're a real WIS, you must have a GS in your collection
- They have great movements, therefore they're better
- No one in the real world knows about GS so it's a great "under the radar brand"
- The finishing is top-notch

That might all be true but I've never warmed up to any of their watches. I've tried them on. Cold fish. Sorry, GS fans. (There must be a reason why there's never anyone browsing the GS cabinet.)
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Old 28 August 2022, 11:01 AM   #83
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I've always thought this as well - but it's seemingly Verboten to say anything bad about Grand Seiko.

What you're supposed to think:

- If you're a real WIS, you must have a GS in your collection
- They have great movements, therefore they're better
- No one in the real world knows about GS so it's a great "under the radar brand"
- The finishing is top-notch

That might all be true but I've never warmed up to any of their watches. I've tried them on. Cold fish. Sorry, GS fans. (There must be a reason why there's never anyone browsing the GS cabinet.)
I feel like it was the Hodinkee crowd that really started the GS hype.
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Old 28 August 2022, 11:55 AM   #84
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It's funny because I feel like GS hype is stronger than Rolex hype at this point. And sadly for GS fans, GS is raising prices at a much higher rate than Rolex. I've been a long term Seiko fan, and owner, but I've never had as much of a horological letdown as I did the first time I made it to a GS AD. I walked in ready to buy an Omiwatari and walked out thinking I'd dodged a bullet since I'd almost ordered online. Every other watch I own I feel like the pictures don't do them justice. In real life they are more intricate and beautiful. The GS was the opposite. I was like, "This is the dial everyone loses their minds over? This?!". Even the spring drive sweep was barely noticeable in real life, unlike the macro photography videos I'd watched again and again. Had to jump off the hype train then and there, couldn't wait until the next station ;)


But back on track here... if Zeihan is even 25% correct in his predictions, the Chinese are headed for a cliff and selling off luxury watches is soooo far from their biggest problem. The ironic thing might be that such items could potentially be their best assets, given their global market. The value of Chinese currency or property may plummet in coming years, but those watches should at least stay constant.

Have to agree on the GS price rises. It’s ridiculous and their market positioning still isn’t there yet.

That’s not to say that they don’t make a great watch. I still love GS, but will probably only go pre-owned from now on.


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Old 28 August 2022, 10:42 PM   #85
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I've always thought this as well - but it's seemingly Verboten to say anything bad about Grand Seiko.

What you're supposed to think:

- If you're a real WIS, you must have a GS in your collection
- They have great movements, therefore they're better
- No one in the real world knows about GS so it's a great "under the radar brand"
- The finishing is top-notch

That might all be true but I've never warmed up to any of their watches. I've tried them on. Cold fish. Sorry, GS fans. (There must be a reason why there's never anyone browsing the GS cabinet.)

GS has become a WIS calling card - the only people I have seen wear them in the wild have turned out to be watch enthusiasts.

The only outstanding thing about GS is the polishing of the hands and hour markers. The overall designs are usually a bit off and I am yet to experience a mechanical movement by GS that runs within COSC spec. Spring Drive and quartz are accurate of course. Dial textures are often over the top and movement finishing is machine only like a nice ETA. Every model is thicker than the equivalent Rolex.

With prices of new models now in the 9k bracket I think GS is way too ambitious.
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Old 28 August 2022, 10:48 PM   #86
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GS has become a WIS calling card - the only people I have seen wear them in the wild have turned out to be watch enthusiasts.

The only outstanding thing about GS is the polishing of the hands and hour markers. The overall designs are usually a bit off and I am yet to experience a mechanical movement by GS that runs within COSC spec. Spring Drive and quartz are accurate of course. Dial textures are often over the top and movement finishing is machine only like a nice ETA. Every model is thicker than the equivalent Rolex.

With prices of new models now in the 9k bracket I think GS is way too ambitious.

Very good insights. The thickness of the cases is a complete dial breaker for me. As you note, something always seems “off” with the design.


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Old 28 August 2022, 11:15 PM   #87
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Why are the Americans rob a supermarket? ��

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It is mainly due to societal decline along cultural lines because the liberals convinced everyone that “diversity is strength”, when in reality, it is leading to tribalism and balkanization.

Hey England, how is all of that diversity working out for you all?
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