Has Rolex Peaked - An Interesting Conversation at the local AD

[lmcgbaj]

White or Silver DJs with flutted bezels are the best-looking Datejusts period.

Blue and Green are just the current hype.

[Dave O]

Originally Posted by drrd

It’s like arguing over altruism, it will always come down to definitions and scope.

You can say you don’t care if your watches are worth absolutely nothing, but they aren’t. You can say you don’t care one bit what others think of your watches, but that doesn’t change the reality that people will have an opinion.

The situation where you appreciate your watches outside any context of material worth or public opinion doesn’t exist.

What a load of nonsensical crap. Your exact quote was:

Everyone cares about ‘resale’ but just call it different things.

I, and many others in this thread have stated we could care less about value retention with our watches as well as many other items we purchase. I love Corvettes, just as much as I love my watches. I've owned three over the past 20 years, the last two losing half of their value when I sold them just 5-7 years after purchase. Guess what, I DON"T CARE. I wanted the cars because I love them, and love to drive them, and cared less what I sold them for. Just as I buy my watches because I love them, and love looking at them when on my wrist. My Breitling and Omega's went down in value the second I walked out of the AD. I DON"T CARE. I wanted them because I love them, and how they make ME feel when wearing them.

You also seem to think that us watch enthusiasts (not investors) care about what others think. You say it doesn't exist. Another load of crap. I could absolutely care less what others think. My wife thinks I'm crazy with regards to my watch obsession, but I DON"T CARE - just as I don't care about her obsession with crafting where as I think she too is crazy. To each their own, and who am I to judge what others like in life. I may have an opinion, but it shouldn't matter one bit to what someone else might like. Just like the posts that state "what watch should I get". Get what YOU like! It matters not what I or others like.

So please get off of your high horse presuming that many of us pure watch enthusiasts give a damn about value retention and what others think of our watches. Rant off.

[majidessa]

Congrats on the watch it is amazing

On another note, Rolex was always known as one of best wwtch brands that hold their value, according to model of course. This is not something new, the only difference was in the past few years when the perception of Rolex shifted from retain value to trade over msrp.

Any assets might go up or down in value based on several factors that can be either temporary or permanent. Personally, I think the concept of value retention of high value items is important to some degree as some of us spend alot of money collecting watches espically expensive ones, it is good to know that your collection worth something, same goes for Art and Cars ... erc as these hobbies are often expensive.

Having said that, I don't hink that watches are investments 99.9% of time, and I always try to buy what I love and chose wisely after long research.

[drrd]

Originally Posted by Dave O

What a load of nonsensical crap.
Rant off.

Happy to debate with you. Not happy to read your cursing and shouting.

Thumbs up doesn’t make it ok btw.

[Dave O]

Originally Posted by drrd

Happy to debate with you. Not happy to read your cursing and shouting.

Thumbs up doesn’t make it ok btw.

I'm sorry you feel that way. But I have a hard time debating with someone when they make statements such as you did that make absolutely no sense. So yes, it upsets me, and I get riled up with posts such as yours. I give you the following:

You state "you can say you don’t care if your watches are worth absolutely nothing, but they aren’t". What difference does it make if a watch is worth something? I said I don't care, and many others as well. The fact that it is worth something doesn't change the fact that I don't care if it does or doesn't.

I and others say we don't care what others think about the watches we own. You state "You can say you don’t care one bit what others think of your watches, but that doesn’t change the reality that people will have an opinion". As I stated in my previous post, I don't care what others think. I don't care if they have an opinion on a particular watch that is different than mine, and if they do, what difference does it make? I buy the watches I love, not what others give me an opinion on that I should love. What is hard to understand about this?

Your statement "The situation where you appreciate your watches outside any context of material worth or public opinion doesn’t exist" is just nonsense. There are things in life I love just as much as my watches which have no value what so ever and I could care less what peoples opinions are about them. You statement makes no sense.

And lastly, the one that I have the problem with the most is the usage of the word "everyone". You state that "everyone" cares about resale, when this simply is not the case. You can argue that the majority, 50% etc. might care, but it's not "everyone".

Sorry to the OP for hijacking this thread. I think we can move on. (and yes, a thumbs up).

[ErichKeane]

Originally Posted by Dave O

I'm sorry you feel that way. But I have a hard time debating with someone when they make statements such as you did that make absolutely no sense. So yes, it upsets me, and I get riled up with posts such as yours. I give you the following:

You state "you can say you don’t care if your watches are worth absolutely nothing, but they aren’t". What difference does it make if a watch is worth something? I said I don't care, and many others as well. The fact that it is worth something doesn't change the fact that I don't care if it does or doesn't.

I and others say we don't care what others think about the watches we own. You state "You can say you don’t care one bit what others think of your watches, but that doesn’t change the reality that people will have an opinion". As I stated in my previous post, I don't care what others think. I don't care if they have an opinion on a particular watch that is different than mine, and if they do, what difference does it make? I buy the watches I love, not what others give me an opinion on that I should love. What is hard to understand about this?

Your statement "The situation where you appreciate your watches outside any context of material worth or public opinion doesn’t exist" is just nonsense. There are things in life I love just as much as my watches which have no value what so ever and I could care less what peoples opinions are about them. You statement makes no sense.

And lastly, the one that I have the problem with the most is the usage of the word "everyone". You state that "everyone" cares about resale, when this simply is not the case. You can argue that the majority, 50% etc. might care, but it's not "everyone".

Sorry to the OP for hijacking this thread. I think we can move on. (and yes, a thumbs up).

I'm with you on this: I intend to kill every one of my watches. I don't really care if they lose 100% of their value the instant they run my card; I'm paying to enjoy the watch, not because it'll still be worth anything someday.

[alllexandru]

Long story short, OP congratulations for your DJ, looking very good.

Move on and enjoy life, time will tell who was right in the back of your AD office.

[lencap]

Today is Thanksgiving Day, a time for being grateful for many things, such as being able to discuss and own expensive watches that are beyond the means of most people.

In that light, I respectfully ask everyone to be graceful and courteous with our comments, and to consider all viewpoints and perspectives with magnanimity.

[nocaps]

i’ve had this white dial datejust 36 since 1992. still love it. the only opinion that really matters is yours.


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[Car32]

Originally Posted by nocaps

i’ve had this white dial datejust 36 since 1992. still love it. the only opinion that really matters is yours.


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Beautiful! But my opinion is it can use a a cleaning!

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by lencap

Greetings -



If they are indeed planning higher volumes, revised distribution and delivery, and viewing this from a worldwide perspective it seems other manufacturers will be forced to do the same.





As an aside, one of the "high roller" clients took me aside after the conversation broke up, and noticed my new DJ. He indicated that the watch I just bought is a nice watch, but added "You should have waited for the blue dial - your watch will be underwater in the resale market before the year is out, and after you paid sales tax it's underwater now."

I'm not concerned about resale, but I was surprised that he was. That suggested to me that maybe at least some of the high end buyers view their watch collection as an alternative investment category, with the potential to generate a profit. That makes perfect sense over 2020-2022 when short term interest rates were near zero. Back then buying a $30K watch didn't have a penalty since having that money in the bank/brokerage account would earn essentially nothing in interest. But in a market where CDs and money market funds yield 5%, a $30K "investment" in a watch forgoes a $1,500 interest return. Again, not to conflate collecting with investing, but it seems that perhaps some astute watch buyers may indeed be rethinking how they view their watch collection.

.

The majority of the "other brands" already make far too many watches, both in number of references and numbers produced. I don't think they need to make any more..




Some of the market was not only concerned with value retention for an investment side, but the perception came about that watches that lost their value are essentially dog@$% and are undesirable rubbish. It became an overall quality concern...why is that worth less than the asking price? What's wrong with it? Rolex doesn't do that? I'll just buy Rolex, it's better...etc

As for Rolex new factory coming online, I'm sure that's solely to build many more SS Daytona, Pepsi GMT and other hawt professional references so people can get the one Rolex they really want and not buy any more....

[Devildog]

Originally Posted by Dave O

What a load of nonsensical crap. Your exact quote was:

Everyone cares about ‘resale’ but just call it different things.

I, and many others in this thread have stated we could care less about value retention with our watches as well as many other items we purchase. I love Corvettes, just as much as I love my watches. I've owned three over the past 20 years, the last two losing half of their value when I sold them just 5-7 years after purchase. Guess what, I DON"T CARE. I wanted the cars because I love them, and love to drive them, and cared less what I sold them for. Just as I buy my watches because I love them, and love looking at them when on my wrist. My Breitling and Omega's went down in value the second I walked out of the AD. I DON"T CARE. I wanted them because I love them, and how they make ME feel when wearing them.

You also seem to think that us watch enthusiasts (not investors) care about what others think. You say it doesn't exist. Another load of crap. I could absolutely care less what others think. My wife thinks I'm crazy with regards to my watch obsession, but I DON"T CARE - just as I don't care about her obsession with crafting where as I think she too is crazy. To each their own, and who am I to judge what others like in life. I may have an opinion, but it shouldn't matter one bit to what someone else might like. Just like the posts that state "what watch should I get". Get what YOU like! It matters not what I or others like.

So please get off of your high horse presuming that many of us pure watch enthusiasts give a damn about value retention and what others think of our watches. Rant off.

If you are going to have a rant (and I agree with you 100% (although I suspect drrd is looking at this from a general perspective where you (and I and others) are speaking personally) then for the sake of clarity and correctness, the phrase is

"couldn't care less" or "could not care less"

To say that you "could care less" means there is less caring available and so you do care to some degree.

Sorry, please continue

[Leeh]

OP, wear it in good health. White dial with batons is classic without a doubt.

[drrd]

Originally Posted by Devildog

If you are going to have a rant (and I agree with you 100% (although I suspect drrd is looking at this from a general perspective where you (and I and others) are speaking personally) then for the sake of clarity and correctness, the phrase is

"couldn't care less" or "could not care less"

To say that you "could care less" means there is less caring available and so you do care to some degree.

Sorry, please continue

I can accept that ‘could care less’ when read with a sarcastic tone (as I hear it’s intended to be) manages to convey essentially the same meaning, albeit with its own twist.

My view is as already stated. Generally, pure anything is nonsense. ‘Pure watch enthusiast’ is also nonsense.

[stickbenz]

Originally Posted by omar-rye

That was a nice read. I have nothing to add, but can we see a wrist shot of your DJ?

+1

[Speedbird-1]

Wow! Some members have the cork in rather tight today.

[BroncoOne]

Originally Posted by lencap

Thanks for the replies, but his comments didn't bother me at all. I buy my watches for personal reasons, and what someone else things about it doesn't affect me. That being said, I do recognize that having a Rolex causes some people to make assumptions/have opinions solely based on their reaction to the brand name.

And, truth be told, when I bought my first Rolex all those years ago, there was a certain "message" in my ownership that many in the investment industry where I worked noticed immediately, for good or bad. Did I buy a Rolex for that reason? No, not entirely, but I was aware that it was "expected" by a certain type of client, and as such a "necessary", or at least beneficial, accessory.

What did interest me was the "high roller" watch buyer immediately shifted his perspective from collecting/ownership to investment potential. That suggested to me that, at least from his perspective, the collection was not only for personal enjoyment, but also an investment. That interested me since an investor will make decisions based on profit potential, and if that was part of the reason for creating the collection, it may be a reason to shift his collection in response to market pricing swings.

I. Sure that the guy was just talking watches and perhaps incorrectly assumed that you were interested in resale value. Whatever. You got a great watch to wear in good health.

As to the investment vehicle aspect, the way that I look at it is that a watch collection can be given to the next generation mostly outside of your taxable estate. You won’t realize any gain other than the gifting to your kids or grandkids and they avoid paying the estate tax on beautiful watches that will have great sentimental value and emotional attachment.

Some of my friends observe that if they get into a jam, they can easily turn Rolex collections into cash. Hopefully it never comes to that!

[Hollie_Rollie]

Day after thanksgiving and we’re kicking off the holiday shopping season. I wonder how many of our used watch dealers are banking on things picking up over the next 2 months ? Everyone knows the summer months are the slowest or maybe this time around something is different. Maybe the hype and demand is dead, maybe. I guess we’ll see hope our used watch dealers hang in there ☕️


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[powerfunk]

We're literally 2 years past peak already imho

[jb335]

lol at “high-end” client saying you should have waited for a blue dial. Was he speaking from 2018?

Everything you heard and wrote is nothing but conjecture. Just liken everything stated in this thread and including my post.

And more lols at this whale of a client knowing Rolex production output in 2025. lol


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[lencap]

Thanks for the comments and suggestions. Much appreciated. The conversation was interesting, and I look forward to what comes next.

[enjoythemusic]

some say the trend is your friend.

chart from https://hypebeast.com/brands/ranking and be sure to choose 1 Year chart.
incidentally, Hype is getting re-hyped far less than during its peak.

Web capture_24-11-2023_13173_hypebeast_edited.jpg

[Tzachi]

Congrats on the DJ.

As for the "informed" high end clients. they know NOTHING. so are the sales people. The new factory is not intended to double the production. It will increase production by not more than 5% and not immediately.

[TheVision]

The FACT is that outside Rolex, NO one, I mean, no one really knows how Rolex operates and their global plans. It's just everyone trys to act like "oh..im a rolex insider" and just spews out stuff sourced from fake youtubers and grey sellers.

I was in Las VEgas boutique back in 2011 and subs/gmt were in stock any given day and hey, even a 3% discount was possible. The watch market only went up post covid and now it's self-correcting itself and most of this happened due to global shortages and youtubers hyping up the brand cos every 13 yr old tictoker was flexing a daytona on his wrist.

It's not Rolex makes watches with "investment" in their minds..it's just a watch company just like Omega/Breitling etc. Watches were NEVER a investment (with some slight cases). Investment is real estate, stocks, ira bonds etc.

Though I'm really glad the watch market is now softening cos that means, I can safely wear my sub out in public without anyone trying to mug me cos it's worth 40% more at the local pawn shop down the street.

PS: Got my sub date in just 7 weeks with zero purchase history from a high profile AD so yeah, the market is certainly softening up.

[Shadow Play]

Just a thought, but is there a possibility that the new factory is for a new watch brand that Rolex are planning? Do any Rolex historians here know if Hans Wilsdorf every contemplated a third watch brand?

[Laostuh]

I don't really think of resale value when it comes to buying a particular watch. I only follow resale to make sure I'm not getting absolutely clocked over the head in pricing. Most of my watches have been sourced from grey market because I don't want to play AD games. I welcome the day we are able to walk into a random AD and buy whatever watch we wanted except for maybe a stainless Daytona. Last time that happened for me was in 2017 on my black GMT. $7500 out the door.

[Marcjvr]

But is it safe to visit the new Rolex factory wearing a Rolex

[amh]

The peak happened about a year ago. Now we should be talking about the rock bottom. Hopefully in another year ADs will once again realize who is in charge : The Customer

[offrdmania]

I love the jab by the client telling the OP to wait for the blue dial. I personally like white dials more and take a look at the discontinued OP39 line, the white dial is consistently trading at about 25% more than the blue dial.

[kowon]

Congrats. Buy what you like. It is your money. I bought my silver DJ36 used, because I like the hidden clasp.