Prices slump by up to 50% for discontinued Rolex watches (Watchpro)

[DJ4]

Originally Posted by soicanbefree

Full golds seems to be cratering. Seen some bigggggggggggggg drops here this week.

Steel falling slowly. No dramatic or interesting moves this week. Flat to slightly down.

Pepsi are the most stable obviously
Waiting for 16k to buy

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by soicanbefree

Full golds seems to be cratering. Seen some bigggggggggggggg drops here this week.

Steel falling slowly. No dramatic or interesting moves this week. Flat to slightly down.

SS ROs dropping significantly actually.

[Bstewart]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

SS ROs dropping significantly actually.

Yeah, APs dropping a ton week by week. What was $80k in March can be had for about half that now.

[soicanbefree]

Originally Posted by Bstewart

Yeah, APs dropping a ton week by week. What was $80k in March can be had for about half that now.

Only commenting on Rolex.

Never paid attention to AP so no reference point for me.

[mdubya]

Any recent price points for 15202? I see a couple around 100k ask.

[messikens]

Originally Posted by Bstewart

Yeah, APs dropping a ton week by week. What was $80k in March can be had for about half that now.

Would you mind outlining which ones you're seeing like that?


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[Turbo Racer]

Have been reading all the comments here and I really have learned a lot and am seeing the same thing as well with prices continuing to drop. It’s interesting to see how the Dow jones and bitcoin has correlated with watch price offerings. A few thoughts on what’s been going on:

1. I believe that we’ve seen a massive bear market rally over the last month. If stocks continue to tick upward, I might have to change my thoughts on this though. I personally think that the rally just popped. Time will tell.
2. Housing market is correcting hard and despite’s rates still remaining low, I think the trend will continue and not let up for quite a while.
3. If the fed is to be believed, and get back some credibility, then rate hikes will continue. Recent blockbuster jobs reports and the stock market rally gives them plenty of ammunition to hike.
4. QT is a big unknown but if it results in reduced liquidity, money is going to get a lot tighter and that will be hard on the economy.
5. Rate hikes can take 6-9 months for their effect to take place. May be why we saw the massive stock market and crypto rally. Everything looks ok right now, but I’m worried.
6. The velocity of these rate hikes is unprecedented. I saw a financial person state that there has never been a more rapid increase in interest rates. Ever!
7. Internationally, there are big problems. Germany has no fuel. Russia closed the pipeline again. Also massive drought and river shipping on the verge of breaking. War in Ukraine continues with massive hits to international farming as Russia and Ukraine produce so much grain and food for the world. China’s economy is most likely in recession pboc actually lowered interest rates. Real estate is facing huge headwinds (ala evergrande); I believe most Chinese put their money into their homes or apartments. Italy and Greece are facing financial crises and there are serious questions about the ability of the European to bail them out. UK has massive inflation and is still trying to find its footing post brexit. There are many other countries facing significant obstacles.

With this backdrop of troubling goings on, I don’t see the watch market going anywhere but down. On this site, there are a number of trusted sellers that do a really good job in offering some of the nicest second had watches available. They also seem to charge some of the highest prices I’ve seen anywhere. So, for me, they aren’t a very good barometer for current market rate. That said, if I wasn’t going to quibble about price, I’d give one of those folks a call and receive a fedex the next day with exactly what I want.

That said, there are a number of lesser known dealers, at least on trf, that have very competitive prices that continue to drop; sometimes weekly.

I think that there will be a significant downturn over the autumn and winter. I believe most models will be available at below msrp including SS sport watches and that ad will have plenty of stock on the shelves by the end of the year. Wishful thinking? Maybe but based on what’s going on with our world right now, I wouldn’t be surprised.

[AbeFroman]

Originally Posted by Turbo Racer

6. The velocity of these rate hikes is unprecedented. I saw a financial person state that there has never been a more rapid increase in interest rates. Ever!

I’m in the field and whoever the finance person you’re referring to is mistaken. We had 20% interest rates in the 1970s by Fed chairman Volcker. We are still quite off from that currently.

[Turbo Racer]

Originally Posted by AbeFroman

I’m in the field and whoever the finance person you’re referring to is mistaken. We had 20% interest rates in the 1970s by Fed chairman Volcker. We are still quite off from that currently.

Agreed. But I was referring to the rate of change in interest rates (velocity). Not the absolute interest rates.

[GoWarriors]

Originally Posted by Turbo Racer

Agreed. But I was referring to the rate of change in interest rates (velocity). Not the absolute interest rates.

I'm afraid that their comment on the velocity of rate changes appears mistaken as well.

Here is a list of all Fed fund rate changes following Fed meetings from 1970 through July 2022: https://www.thebalance.com/fed-funds...s-lows-3306135

1973: 5% increase (inflation was 6.2%)
1978: 3.25% increase (inflation was 7.6%)
1979: 3.75% increase (inflation was 11.3%)
1980: wild year! 5% increase, but rates went from 15% to 20% in one meeting, March. Then down 8.5% to 11.5% in May! By Dec of 1980, rates were back to 20%! (inflation was 13.5%)

2022 so far: 2.25% increase so far (inflation 8.5% right now)

Please feel free to double check my math and everything, I'm just eyeballing all of this.

[Incroyable12]

Originally Posted by AbeFroman

I’m in the field and whoever the finance person you’re referring to is mistaken. We had 20% interest rates in the 1970s by Fed chairman Volcker. We are still quite off from that currently.

Given the massive stagflation in the '70s I wonder who was buying all those bejeweled gold watches that the '70s had.

[1665fan]

Buy the dip!!!!!

[soicanbefree]

Originally Posted by GoWarriors

I'm afraid that their comment on the velocity of rate changes appears mistaken as well.

Here is a list of all Fed fund rate changes following Fed meetings from 1970 through July 2022: https://www.thebalance.com/fed-funds...s-lows-3306135

1973: 5% increase (inflation was 6.2%)
1978: 3.25% increase (inflation was 7.6%)
1979: 3.75% increase (inflation was 11.3%)
1980: wild year! 5% increase, but rates went from 15% to 20% in one meeting, March. Then down 8.5% to 11.5% in May! By Dec of 1980, rates were back to 20%! (inflation was 13.5%)

2022 so far: 2.25% increase so far (inflation 8.5% right now)

Please feel free to double check my math and everything, I'm just eyeballing all of this.

I looked at it a few months ago and I am way too lazy to look again.

The difference, for me, is what the base rate was at the time of the change.

I'm just going to quote 30 yr mortgages because that what matters to me in terms of having an impact on the common man.

For example let's say we were sitting around 3.0-3.25 from Aug 21-Dec 21. It hit 4% by Feb. 5% by April. 6% by June.

That is a 100%! increase in 6 months. That is a much more dramatic increase in terms of interest expense and has a more dramatic impact on valuations than going from say 6% to 11% Fed Fund rates by the end of 1973.

@ Turbo Racer. I agree with everything you said.

Bear market rally.. but if it breaks out higher from here than that might just be it. Sounds stupid but we are in no mans land at the moment.

The market is basically betting/playing chicken with Fed. It is saying we think this is it. You are in a recession or pathway to recession now. We don't think you will go much higher after the next 1-2 rounds of increases and will actually cut in 2023.

You can see the probability of increases at the next meeting based on how the market is betting using the CMEGroup FOMC tool.

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/int...n-to-fomc.html

I actually pretty much agree with all your points/commentary. I sold all my accounts to cash last Wed after CPI when QQQ hit 325 and I am now just sitting/waiting. I'll buy if it goes lower. I'll also rebuy if it goes higher. Happy to be flat at the moment.

My one comment is that we as humans tend to be excessively negative and the market is forward looking and I know that I have that bias. We sometimes have trouble seeing what those new positive developments will be that propel us all forward.

Back to watch commentary. I think there is nowhere but down for 1-1.5 years minimum as a time target. As an even target I want to see capitulation and disinterest from buyers. I want to see watches in the case at the AD and I want to see liquidation of at least 1 major gray dealer. I'd like to buy a few new modern/vintage but see no reason to step in front of it yet.

[soicanbefree]

Originally Posted by Incroyable12

Given the massive stagflation in the '70s I wonder who was buying all those bejeweled gold watches that the '70s had.

Funny enough I'd love a 36MM Day Date Rainbow or vintage Oyster Quartz Rainbow but have no clue where I could possibly wear it without looking like a tit. LOL

[HAL330]

Originally Posted by Turbo Racer

Have been reading all the comments here and I really have learned a lot and am seeing the same thing as well with prices continuing to drop. It’s interesting to see how the Dow jones and bitcoin has correlated with watch price offerings. A few thoughts on what’s been going on:

1. I believe that we’ve seen a massive bear market rally over the last month. If stocks continue to tick upward, I might have to change my thoughts on this though. I personally think that the rally just popped. Time will tell.
2. Housing market is correcting hard and despite’s rates still remaining low, I think the trend will continue and not let up for quite a while.
3. If the fed is to be believed, and get back some credibility, then rate hikes will continue. Recent blockbuster jobs reports and the stock market rally gives them plenty of ammunition to hike.
4. QT is a big unknown but if it results in reduced liquidity, money is going to get a lot tighter and that will be hard on the economy.
5. Rate hikes can take 6-9 months for their effect to take place. May be why we saw the massive stock market and crypto rally. Everything looks ok right now, but I’m worried.
6. The velocity of these rate hikes is unprecedented. I saw a financial person state that there has never been a more rapid increase in interest rates. Ever!
7. Internationally, there are big problems. Germany has no fuel. Russia closed the pipeline again. Also massive drought and river shipping on the verge of breaking. War in Ukraine continues with massive hits to international farming as Russia and Ukraine produce so much grain and food for the world. China’s economy is most likely in recession pboc actually lowered interest rates. Real estate is facing huge headwinds (ala evergrande); I believe most Chinese put their money into their homes or apartments. Italy and Greece are facing financial crises and there are serious questions about the ability of the European to bail them out. UK has massive inflation and is still trying to find its footing post brexit. There are many other countries facing significant obstacles.

With this backdrop of troubling goings on, I don’t see the watch market going anywhere but down. On this site, there are a number of trusted sellers that do a really good job in offering some of the nicest second had watches available. They also seem to charge some of the highest prices I’ve seen anywhere. So, for me, they aren’t a very good barometer for current market rate. That said, if I wasn’t going to quibble about price, I’d give one of those folks a call and receive a fedex the next day with exactly what I want.

That said, there are a number of lesser known dealers, at least on trf, that have very competitive prices that continue to drop; sometimes weekly.

I think that there will be a significant downturn over the autumn and winter. I believe most models will be available at below msrp including SS sport watches and that ad will have plenty of stock on the shelves by the end of the year. Wishful thinking? Maybe but based on what’s going on with our world right now, I wouldn’t be surprised.

Very well written and explained theory ... I can see it go that way, or I can see the soft landing which I am still hopeful for occurring, with the US driving back the rebound in the world, as we start to shift our supply chain more inward, and rely less on China... As I said in a post above, I think this might begin with the mid-term elections and gridlock, followed by a business friendly executive in two years... but yes, it will be slow times for a while.. how much slower? and how much lower will assets go? nobody knows.

[Turbo Racer]

Originally Posted by soicanbefree

I looked at it a few months ago and I am way too lazy to look again.

The difference, for me, is what the base rate was at the time of the change.

I'm just going to quote 30 yr mortgages because that what matters to me in terms of having an impact on the common man.

For example let's say we were sitting around 3.0-3.25 from Aug 21-Dec 21. It hit 4% by Feb. 5% by April. 6% by June.

That is a 100%! increase in 6 months. That is a much more dramatic increase in terms of interest expense and has a more dramatic impact on valuations than going from say 6% to 11% Fed Fund rates by the end of 1973.

@ Turbo Racer. I agree with everything you said.

Bear market rally.. but if it breaks out higher from here than that might just be it. Sounds stupid but we are in no mans land at the moment.

The market is basically betting/playing chicken with Fed. It is saying we think this is it. You are in a recession or pathway to recession now. We don't think you will go much higher after the next 1-2 rounds of increases and will actually cut in 2023.

You can see the probability of increases at the next meeting based on how the market is betting using the CMEGroup FOMC tool.

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/int...n-to-fomc.html

I actually pretty much agree with all your points/commentary. I sold all my accounts to cash last Wed after CPI when QQQ hit 325 and I am now just sitting/waiting. I'll buy if it goes lower. I'll also rebuy if it goes higher. Happy to be flat at the moment.

My one comment is that we as humans tend to be excessively negative and the market is forward looking and I know that I have that bias. We sometimes have trouble seeing what those new positive developments will be that propel us all forward.

Back to watch commentary. I think there is nowhere but down for 1-1.5 years minimum as a time target. As an even target I want to see capitulation and disinterest from buyers. I want to see watches in the case at the AD and I want to see liquidation of at least 1 major gray dealer. I'd like to buy a few new modern/vintage but see no reason to step in front of it yet.

Thanks for your comments! You did a much better job at explaining what I meant. I also agree with what you are saying here. I believe that in time, if there is no QE or rate drops, we will see things begin to break. A lot will depend on who’s leveraged and as you pointed out, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a hitherto stellar gray, get caught up. That said, I think it’s worth pointing out that I have no I’ll will to any sellers out there whatsoever and I hate to see good people get hurt. I just see the stock market as having a mind of its own and it can be very unforgiving. Cheers!

[Turbo Racer]

Originally Posted by HAL330

Very well written and explained theory ... I can see it go that way, or I can see the soft landing which I am still hopeful for occurring, with the US driving back the rebound in the world, as we start to shift our supply chain more inward, and rely less on China... As I said in a post above, I think this might begin with the mid-term elections and gridlock, followed by a business friendly executive in two years... but yes, it will be slow times for a while.. how much slower? and how much lower will assets go? nobody knows.

Thank you for your kind comments. I have read many of your posts here and I very much enjoy your bullish perspective! It helps balance things out. I personally am hoping for a soft landing and frankly just some stability, especially in the stock market. I relish the thought of gridlock in the government for this very reason. Whatever ends up happening, I agree that the USA will lead the world out of this.

[GoWarriors]

Great WSJ article today which echoes many of your points, Turbo Racer.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/stocks-...d=hp_lead_pos2

[EEpro]

Spotted this fake / dial swap on there a little under market price. Buyer beware.

[WBuffettJr]

Originally Posted by EEpro

Spotted this fake / dial swap on there a little under market price. Buyer beware.

Where is “there”?

[soicanbefree]

Originally Posted by WBuffettJr

Where is “there”?

MODA which is a Facebook watch trading group that we are using as our best "market" barometer for true transaction prices.

[AbeFroman]

Originally Posted by EEpro

Spotted this fake / dial swap on there a little under market price. Buyer beware.

Those sub dials are terrible.

[HAL330]

Originally Posted by soicanbefree

MODA which is a Facebook watch trading group that we are using as our best "market" barometer for true transaction prices.

From what I say before I left that group, 90% of what's on there is suspicious at best... not as in fake, but as in misrepresented or over represented ..

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by AbeFroman

Those sub dials are terrible.

Correct. At first glance the watch is flat and ugly. Upon closer inspection the meteorite is the incorrect material. The sub dials have multiple issues.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by HAL330

From what I say before I left that group, 90% of what's on there is suspicious at best... not as in fake, but as in misrepresented or over represented ..

Unfortunately I feel that’s the case with the grey market in general. If you don’t know your sh*t then it’s easy to get burned.

[HAL330]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Unfortunately I feel that’s the case with the grey market in general. If you don’t know your sh*t then it’s easy to get burned.

I buy from the likes of WatchBox, Watch Eric, and Roman.... I trust any of them more than I trust an AD..

[eijiboy]

Bnib wg sub cookie monster 39.5. Thats below msrp


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[HAL330]

Originally Posted by eijiboy

Bnib wg sub cookie monster 39.5. Thats below msrp


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unless it was bought before the recent price hike, that's close to $2K below (never mind sales tax that 99% of Rolex AD's must charge)... which begs the question, who's losing money on this one?

[eijiboy]

Originally Posted by HAL330

unless it was bought before the recent price hike, that's close to $2K below (never mind sales tax that 99% of Rolex AD's must charge)... which begs the question, who's losing money on this one?

It was 2021. People buy it to gain history and hopefully to get watches like gmt or daytona


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[HAL330]

Originally Posted by eijiboy

It was 2021. People buy it to gain history and hopefully to get watches like gmt or daytona


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I can tell you for sure that in 2021, that watch wasn't a "gain history" watch sitting around at a dealer ... It was about $10K above MSRP on the gray.

It was likely bought, worn for a year or two... lightly refinished and being sold "As new" by a less than reputable dealer on MODA (surprise surprise)...