Talking Stocks 2.0

[ELLimon]

All I can say is wow!!! I’m hurting. I’m 70,000 down.

[scarlet knight]

It’s always darkest before the dawn.

[Xelorpepsi]

Originally Posted by huncho

yeah the march drop was much more severe % wise but rsi was 26.98 in march at its lowest and 27.0 earlier this morning which was a bit of a shock to me, judging by the fact that we've gotten a big bounce every time it was in the 30s. agree with the rest of your post too, i want to think this is just an overreaction to rate hikes, which should not actually be a big deal, and other political factors, but at this point it's a bit worrisome with how much everything is dumping. so many good tech companies have erased all pandemic gains. i have some hopes that maybe earnings season will reverse that though

i guess we'll see during the next fomc meeting (next week i believe?). i generally try to stay optimistic but at this point the damage has been so severe it hurts to think about lol

Multiples have been expanding pretty much non stop since the mini Tech crash in March 2014. What happened in 2020-2021 was fuelled by the FED intervention (QE, cheap money) and was an anomaly. Valuations remain out of touch with fundamentals and I would expect way more pain over the next one or two quarters as the new normal sets in (i.e. Higher inflation, lower growth, massive deleveraging needed) and this excludes any potential black swan event. Let's hope I am wrong, but in a way it might be a good thing to see the bubble finally pop now rather than much further down the line.

[330ci]

Things are getting ugly

[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by Xelorpepsi

Let's hope I am wrong, but in a way it might be a good thing to see the bubble finally pop now rather than much further down the line.

Xelor I'm with you here, unfortunately. Things have been too good for so long I'm worried there could be a way to go on the downside. And stagflation won't be good for the markets imo.

But, the longer we continue to artificially prop and inflate, the risk of unintended consequences and inevitable correction increases. I tend to not agree with the Keynesian approach in this case. Let the markets and economies self-correct, hopefully sooner rather than later.

[RidingDonkeys]

Originally Posted by 330ci

Today sucked, but as i went through purging my portfolio, there were only 2 I sold and reinvested the money into other stocks that took 10%+ hits today. The only thing I really messed up on was rivian. And idk if theres any recovering it, but I can't bring myself to sell where my position sits.


My precious metals are fairing well this week atleast.

I got in Rivian on the IPO. Timed it all wrong. Knew it was overvalued, but rode the wave and got out at $115. Missed out on a bunch of money, but seeing what happened this week, it could have been worse. I don't think they're done dropping.

Sent from the voices in my head and transcribed by their drinking buddy.

[Andad]

Stripe?

[m j b]

Don't forget, many of today's younger investors have never lived through a correction.

[RidingDonkeys]

Amen to that. But a correction can be a great opportunity for a young investor. 2008 might have been the best thing that ever happened to me. I was in the Army, newly married to a gainfully employed bride, with no kids or debt. We didn't have much, but I poured everything I had into the market and came out of that shitstorm smelling like roses.

Unfortunately, this is not going to be the year for a repeat performance. We've got an overseas move ahead of us and all the capital that entails. But, for the investor in the right position, this could be a golden opportunity.

Sent from the voices in my head and transcribed by their drinking buddy.

[Letsgodiving]

A funny take on the current market.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=de...soRtRKew&t=92s

[chsu74]

Lets be mindful of the two main reasons behind corrections.

Economic events in 2008 and March 2020 resulting in QE with an injection of money supply and interest rate decrease.

This current correction is due to expected increase in interest rate and lowering supply of money hence the repricing of equities.

[avidflyer]

Net at $80???

[superdog]

another ugly day on the horizon.

but I am in the camp of let it rip. it is time and it was bound to happen.

[Bearxj86]

Just go play with the watches and come back before Q1 earnings :)

[m j b]

Well, it's 10:00 here and the markets are down 2-2.5% (depending on which index you look at). We had a head fake a few minutes ago when the S&P started to recover, bringing in the suckers who then got flushed down the toilet.

I'm waiting for a buying opportunity but I've got other things to do today (like work) so I can't watch the tape all day. Which is probably for the best, since that head fake almost got me.

[SackLVG]

i keep getting alerts nonstop on my phone, my watched stocks must be hitting all time lows today. still not buying, riding out the wave and putting my money in juan soto cards.

[huncho]

this is just disgusting

[avidflyer]

Originally Posted by huncho

this is just disgusting

I know nothing but I think in a perfect world, it has at least another 5 - 10 percent to go to make any sense of how high it got….that said and restated my opinion…

[FLGatorM5]

Originally Posted by m j b

Well, it's 10:00 here and the markets are down 2-2.5% (depending on which index you look at). We had a head fake a few minutes ago when the S&P started to recover, bringing in the suckers who then got flushed down the toilet.

I'm waiting for a buying opportunity but I've got other things to do today (like work) so I can't watch the tape all day. Which is probably for the best, since that head fake almost got me.

Don’t call me a sucker. Eventually I’ll be right.

Like a broken clock.

[m j b]

One of the newsletters that I get plays the market using leveraged ETFs, and he's big on setting stops. I don't usually do that (stop-loss orders) because I'm stupid and naïve and I don't do leveraged ETFs because I always lose money on those things.

This morning I thought I'd give it a shot. When the S&P started going up the second time, I bought some SPXL. After watching it continue to rise, I put in a stop order and about 2 seconds after I clicked "confirm" it was executed. LOL, did I do it wrong?

No, the index turned around and started down again. I made enough money to buy me lunch and fill up the car.

I'm out. Too stressful for me.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by m j b

I made enough money to buy me lunch and fill up the car.

I wasn't trying to brag. I meant a sandwich for lunch and regular for the car.

[Laszlo]

I think there are 4 key things happening in order:

1. Crypto: EO by Biden by Feb, heavy regulations. FED announcement for US digital dollar with real backing.
2. Tech stocks: Simple correction that’s far overdue. Healthy.
3. Ukraine: Possible hot war with NATO/US.
4. Taiwan: China’s opportunity for an invasion hinders on what happens with Ukraine. If number 3 happens it’s their best shot due to stretched US resources.

One and 2 are here to stay, the other two would be catastrophic but highly unlikely to happen.

[logo]

My (non-professional) assessment:

Nasdaq well below supports, next stop is 13,000 for minor support but I think more realistically 12,000 will be it, reflecting the prior resistance from Sept-Nov 2020. So a 1.5 year (25%) reset.

S&P and DJI are sitting at minor support right now it seems. S&P is at level from just 3 months ago while DJI is at a level it’s hit several times over the past year. Can’t imagine a strong dissociation between these and Nasdaq, so would expect some further selling but not sure where it lands. My preliminary guess is Nasdaq 12,000, DJI 31,000, S&P 4000.

[logo]

Double post

[huncho]

Originally Posted by logo

My (non-professional) assessment:

Nasdaq well below supports, next stop is 13,000 for minor support but I think more realistically 12,000 will be it, reflecting the prior resistance from Sept-Nov 2020. So a 1.5 year (25%) reset.

S&P and DJI are sitting at minor support right now it seems. S&P is at level from just 3 months ago while DJI is at a level it’s hit several times over the past year. Can’t imagine a strong dissociation between these and Nasdaq, so would expect some further selling but not sure where it lands. My preliminary guess is Nasdaq 12,000, DJI 31,000, S&P 4000.

guessing this puts a huge amount of pressure on the fed, will be anxiously waiting for weds for now i guess

[logo]

Originally Posted by huncho

guessing this puts a huge amount of pressure on the fed, will be anxiously waiting for weds for now i guess

On the one hand it does, on the other they basically have their hands tied - deferring anything now just because the market isn’t happy will only prolong or worsen the pain IMO. The market is pricing the worst already, and I think long term best thing is that they just get it over with so we can bottom out quickly rather than a slow bleed with months of fake rally’s. But, I’m sure Wall Street would love to collect on all those OTM options that expire worthless with a prolonged bleed rather than leaving time for share prices to bounce back.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by logo

On the one hand it does, on the other they basically have their hands tied - deferring anything now just because the market isn’t happy will only prolong or worsen the pain IMO. The market is pricing the worst already, and I think long term best thing is that they just get it over with so we can bottom out quickly rather than a slow bleed with months of fake rally’s. But, I’m sure Wall Street would love to collect on all those OTM options that expire worthless with a prolonged bleed rather than leaving time for share prices to bounce back.

tough spot for sure. long term it's best for a flush like this but at the same time the people running the show are near retirement and seeing their 401ks evaporate, as well as there being mid terms this year. i don't think they will change course entirely, but i feel like the market is pricing in more rate hikes than announced so even some kind of reassurance could cause a bounce

[vipereaper30]

Kind of an ugly day so far. Free markets don't go straight up and pain is good.

Waiting for increased hand-wringing and calls on the Fed to "do something" to fix the correction.

Tow the line and stay the course please (by that I mean let off the gas, enough already!), tyvm.

[superdog]

I put a bunch into Microsoft and Apple on Friday. Likely should have waited. But I’m long term anyway.

In a bit of physical pain right now. But I too expect it to get worse before it gets better.

[SDGT3]

This is a pretty quick drop over a week's period. Pricing in the rate hikes is painful, but had to be done and should have been done earlier in 2021.

NASDAQ is near bear territory and think there's still some room to go down. Honestly don't know about support levels at this point.

Seriously makes sense to think about ROTH conversions at some point with the market down this far.