Talking Stocks 2.0

[Andy0331]

Originally Posted by huncho

SST hit $17 earlier, waiting for warrants to start catching up though. not sure if they even moved since it was like 12 right? haven't followed them too much

Yep. Somewhat surprising the warrants haven't been staying relatively in line, but the value is certainly there (currently anyway).

[7sins]

Originally Posted by huncho

SST hit $17 earlier, waiting for warrants to start catching up though. not sure if they even moved since it was like 12 right? haven't followed them too much

Originally Posted by Andy0331

Yep. Somewhat surprising the warrants haven't been staying relatively in line, but the value is certainly there (currently anyway).

Few things here. SST closed at 15.35, that would put intrinsic value of warrants at $3.85 given the strike of $11.50. They closed at $1.20 today. This is for two reasons, one there is a good amount of warrants available 25M where the float is 750k on the underlying. The reason you see a massive discount on the warrants is investors are pricing the stock will fall once the S1 is effective. Once the S1 is effective, that means the warrants can then be called. It also means that the float becomes much larger, which means how much selling pressure would we see? Management and Cannae own the majority of the outstanding float, if there is no selling pressure, the warrants will immediately gap to intrinsic value. If you get future acquisitions and a great ER (they have constantly revised outlook historically) that should place a premium into the value of the warrants (look at seatw). So you have a tremendous arbitrage opportunity depending on selling post S1. Albeit there are plenty of opportunities widely spread through the market ATM.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Few things here. SST closed at 15.35, that would put intrinsic value of warrants at $3.85 given the strike of $11.50. They closed at $1.20 today. This is for two reasons, one there is a good amount of warrants available 25M where the float is 750k on the underlying. The reason you see a massive discount on the warrants is investors are pricing the stock will fall once the S1 is effective. Once the S1 is effective, that means the warrants can then be called. It also means that the float becomes much larger, which means how much selling pressure would we see? Management and Cannae own the majority of the outstanding float, if there is no selling pressure, the warrants will immediately gap to intrinsic value. If you get future acquisitions and a great ER (they have constantly revised outlook historically) that should place a premium into the value of the warrants (look at seatw). So you have a tremendous arbitrage opportunity depending on selling post S1. Albeit there are plenty of opportunities widely spread through the market ATM.

you eyeing anything in particular these days?

[7sins]

Originally Posted by huncho

you eyeing anything in particular these days?

A heart attack

Usual suspects, Coty is back to sub $7.50 I need to see what their RUS exposure is. I like EXPE sub $150 and of course SABR now back below $8, VERY happy I made that trade and posted here to trim at $11, I still have a good chunkthough which is underwater and I am dropping my CB. Look at tsa travel throughput, travel demand isn't going anywhere in fact the numbers are compelling. Added more to AUPH when it dropped to $10 and SOFI at these levels is a steal.

Ones I haven't mentioned on here are CIEN, buying sub $55 and is a unique story. ESTA I started a small position in the high 50s, I did a writeup for this on a client I can share if anyone wants. Looking to build position in ASML, options are too pricey but 2 year backlog and there is no where else to buy chip manufacturing machines. ASO makes no sense trading at this low of a level at 4 forward p/e almost 20%/share in cash and 0.4 P/S. I noted on here a bunch about TBT and trimming when the 10yr ran to 2%, I will look to add if 10yr drops back to 1.50 depending on what the 2-10 spreads look like.

There is no where to hide ex commodities, a lot of people panicking which is when I back the truck up. All my put positions are now off and putting all of my cash to work to further DCA.

Just my .02, not financial advice!

[MrGoat]

Buy in gloom, sell in boom. One of you magnificent bastards said that and it resonated with me. I’m just wondering how far the gloom goes before jumping back in.


Sent from my Apple privacy invasion product

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 7sins

A heart attack

lol i hear you. these last 4 months have made me erase "it can't get worse" from my vocabulary

Originally Posted by MrGoat

Buy in gloom, sell in boom. One of you magnificent bastards said that and it resonated with me. I’m just wondering how far the gloom goes before jumping back in.


Sent from my Apple privacy invasion product

i wonder the same every day

[denmanproject]

Originally Posted by 7sins

SOFI at these levels is a steal.

Agree! I picked up some more this afternoon

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Few things here. SST closed at 15.35, that would put intrinsic value of warrants at $3.85 given the strike of $11.50. They closed at $1.20 today. This is for two reasons, one there is a good amount of warrants available 25M where the float is 750k on the underlying. The reason you see a massive discount on the warrants is investors are pricing the stock will fall once the S1 is effective. Once the S1 is effective, that means the warrants can then be called. It also means that the float becomes much larger, which means how much selling pressure would we see? Management and Cannae own the majority of the outstanding float, if there is no selling pressure, the warrants will immediately gap to intrinsic value. If you get future acquisitions and a great ER (they have constantly revised outlook historically) that should place a premium into the value of the warrants (look at seatw). So you have a tremendous arbitrage opportunity depending on selling post S1. Albeit there are plenty of opportunities widely spread through the market ATM.

Lets not forget that there is a 130% short on SST so the float increase will help short covering before seeing price pressure..

[huncho]

saw this yesterday - really puts things into perspective, although it's a bit cherry picked since it starts with jan 1

[7sins]

A much needed reprieve today boys, had to refresh my screens multiple times to make sure it wasn’t an error. Nice to see GREEN EVERYWHERE. For those riding tbt out with me, keep a close eye the next few days on the 10yr, if we surpass 2% I will look to finishing exiting this trade and take those gains to cash. Also fantastic conference call on AUPH today, amazing how he now defends the stock after he manipulated the price down to grant exec options.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 7sins

A much needed reprieve today boys, had to refresh my screens multiple times to make sure it wasn’t an error. Nice to see GREEN EVERYWHERE. For those riding tbt out with me, keep a close eye the next few days on the 10yr, if we surpass 2% I will look to finishing exiting this trade and take those gains to cash. Also fantastic conference call on AUPH today, amazing how he now defends the stock after he manipulated the price down to grant exec options.

cpi report tomorrow, might be time to take some screenshots of all the green in case we forget what it looks like again

[GeoffEff]

Originally Posted by 7sins

A much needed reprieve today boys, had to refresh my screens multiple times to make sure it wasn’t an error. Nice to see GREEN EVERYWHERE. For those riding tbt out with me, keep a close eye the next few days on the 10yr, if we surpass 2% I will look to finishing exiting this trade and take those gains to cash. Also fantastic conference call on AUPH today, amazing how he now defends the stock after he manipulated the price down to grant exec options.

This is encouraging!

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Also fantastic conference call on AUPH today, amazing how he now defends the stock after he manipulated the price down to grant exec options.

Would like to add the conference call mentioned that their 3 year quad blind study will be published in an industry journal and give Drs confidence to prescribe the medicine. Original A1 was published here and the full 3 year follow up study will probably stay with the same publication.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...lltext?rss=yes

[Moondoggy]

Originally Posted by MrGoat

Buy in gloom, sell in boom. One of you magnificent bastards said that and it resonated with me. I’m just wondering how far the gloom goes before jumping back in.


Sent from my Apple privacy invasion product

It is so simple, when things tank, people unload it just doesn't make any sense, the trick is to not buy on the way down but at the bottom.

[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by Moondoggy

It is so simple, when things tank, people unload it just doesn't make any sense, the trick is to not buy on the way down but at the bottom.

Ohhhh, now it all makes sense. Thanks for this, so easy, off to make $$$!

[Moondoggy]

Originally Posted by vipereaper30

Ohhhh, now it all makes sense. Thanks for this, so easy, off to make $$$!

it's free too.

[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by Moondoggy

it's free too.

Free money?? This is just getting better

[Kowaco]

Originally Posted by huncho

cpi report tomorrow, might be time to take some screenshots of all the green in case we forget what it looks like again

I wouldn’t be surprised if it went down


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[Moondoggy]

Originally Posted by vipereaper30

Free money?? This is just getting better

Sir/Madam I was only referring to my advice, I am a simple man if you require the coefficient of determination reach out to me and I will put you in touch with the relevant department at a modest cost.

Better luck with your studies in the future.

[m j b]

I'm putting this out there as a favor to all of my TRF friends - you can be the first!

Yes, it's the new mjb inverse hedge fund. It will buy mostly USA stocks with some ADRs thrown in there for balance. Occasionally jumping into leveraged market ETFs and S&P 500 options, this fund will attempt to maximize return on short-term risky and thoughtless positions.

The basis, the trading strategy, will be handled by a single fund manager to be named later. This individual will have tracking software and a direct line of contact with me. Everything I do, every position I buy, every time I sell, the fund will do the exact opposite.

When I think the market has peaked and sell, the fund will buy. When I think that the stock has hit bottom, or is a good investment and I buy, the fund will sell or sell short.

This methodology, although unproven with actual trades, has 35+ years of trading history to prove that it would have provided magnificent returns 90% of the time if one simply did the opposite of what I did.

Stand by for official prospectus and investing guidelines and participant requirements. This security has not yet been approved by the SEC and this is not a solicitation for funds.

[330ci]

Originally Posted by m j b

I'm putting this out there as a favor to all of my TRF friends - you can be the first!

Yes, it's the new mjb inverse hedge fund. It will buy mostly USA stocks with some ADRs thrown in there for balance. Occasionally jumping into leveraged market ETFs and S&P 500 options, this fund will attempt to maximize return on short-term risky and thoughtless positions.

The basis, the trading strategy, will be handled by a single fund manager to be named later. This individual will have tracking software and a direct line of contact with me. Everything I do, every position I buy, every time I sell, the fund will do the exact opposite.

When I think the market has peaked and sell, the fund will buy. When I think that the stock has hit bottom, or is a good investment and I buy, the fund will sell or sell short.

This methodology, although unproven with actual trades, has 35+ years of trading history to prove that it would have provided magnificent returns 90% of the time if one simply did the opposite of what I did.

Stand by for official prospectus and investing guidelines and participant requirements. This security has not yet been approved by the SEC and this is not a solicitation for funds.

Someone did this with ARKs portfolio and made a killing

[Magnum75]

Originally Posted by 330ci

Someone did this with ARKs portfolio and made a killing

Tuttle Capital's Short Innovation ETF (SARK).

So we should be on the lookout for a SMJB ticker? ;-)

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by 330ci

Someone did this with ARKs portfolio and made a killing

I've been in it since inception. Wish I would have put more in... damn watches.

I prefer SARK to betting against the major indexes like spxu and others.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 330ci

Someone did this with ARKs portfolio and made a killing

cathie had a good run but was mostly due to tesla and square i believe, it's sad that she's bagholding all these stocks now but then again her horizon is 5+ years so it's hard to judge for now

the tech meltdown has been insane to watch though, i would've never imagined big tech companies being down 60-70% without us even being in a recession (shopify literally down 60% ytd!). and the smaller ones are mind blowing, i didn't even notice til yesterday that fastly is down to $15 from 140ish lol. meanwhile the SEC is going after crypto for being too risky for investors when they're letting trash companies like robinhood go public and end up going from $85 to $10 in months, admitted that retail orders go through dark pools and allow short exploitations. it's basically 2001 except that the major indexes are hiding the actual damage being done. i think retail will be done for a while after this quarter

[austinp]

Originally Posted by m j b

I'm putting this out there as a favor to all of my TRF friends - you can be the first!

Yes, it's the new mjb inverse hedge fund. It will buy mostly USA stocks with some ADRs thrown in there for balance. Occasionally jumping into leveraged market ETFs and S&P 500 options, this fund will attempt to maximize return on short-term risky and thoughtless positions.

The basis, the trading strategy, will be handled by a single fund manager to be named later. This individual will have tracking software and a direct line of contact with me. Everything I do, every position I buy, every time I sell, the fund will do the exact opposite.

When I think the market has peaked and sell, the fund will buy. When I think that the stock has hit bottom, or is a good investment and I buy, the fund will sell or sell short.

This methodology, although unproven with actual trades, has 35+ years of trading history to prove that it would have provided magnificent returns 90% of the time if one simply did the opposite of what I did.

Stand by for official prospectus and investing guidelines and participant requirements. This security has not yet been approved by the SEC and this is not a solicitation for funds.

Lol. Great post. I’m right there with you.


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[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by huncho

cathie had a good run but was mostly due to tesla and square i believe, it's sad that she's bagholding all these stocks now but then again her horizon is 5+ years so it's hard to judge for now

the tech meltdown has been insane to watch though, i would've never imagined big tech companies being down 60-70% without us even being in a recession (shopify literally down 60% ytd!). and the smaller ones are mind blowing, i didn't even notice til yesterday that fastly is down to $15 from 140ish lol. meanwhile the SEC is going after crypto for being too risky for investors when they're letting trash companies like robinhood go public and end up going from $85 to $10 in months, admitted that retail orders go through dark pools and allow short exploitations. it's basically 2001 except that the major indexes are hiding the actual damage being done. i think retail will be done for a while after this quarter

The late 1990’s = when taxi drivers start giving out stock tips, uh oh moment happened a few months later.

2021 version = when Rolex SA starts talking about latest killing they made in tech stocks and crypto (While not selling me a watch!), uh oh moment happened a few months later.

For me will be interesting to see if A) a giant like Alibaba returns back to sub 19 x value, and B) what other growth companies will fold and start to fork out cash.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

The late 1990’s = when taxi drivers start giving out stock tips, uh oh moment happened a few months later.

2021 version = when Rolex SA starts talking about latest killing they made in tech stocks and crypto (While not selling me a watch!), uh oh moment happened a few months later.

For me will be interesting to see if A) a giant like Alibaba returns back to sub 19 x value, and B) what other growth companies will fold and start to fork out cash.

baba is an interesting case because it would be a $2-300 stock if not for it being a political target. a lot of tech companies are now at their pre pandemic valuations as well, and i'm just referring to the ones that are and have been profitable (unlike the ones that had negative net income and were trading at 10-20x revenue)

i think people will make a killing on the inevitable reversal, at least the ones that survive this lol

[huncho]

SST made its way to wsb... hope the warrants can go up so we can get out before the usual dump that follows this lol

https://reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/...t_makers_fear/

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by huncho

SST made its way to wsb... hope the warrants can go up so we can get out before the usual dump that follows this lol

https://reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/...t_makers_fear/

I took some profits today. Hope it continues its run tomorrow..

[RidingDonkeys]

Watching SOFI this low is hard. Just took advantage to average down a bit. Looking at doing the same with some other holdings, but trying not to be impulsive.

Sent from the voices in my head and transcribed by their drinking buddy.