Talking Stocks 2.0

[KokPingBalzac]

Most of the quality names have run up to a level that I consider to be above fair value and at a level where I'll likely hold. If earnings come through strong this week for HD and LOW I think this rally has more gas in it- maybe another 10% for the SPY.

Fortunately i have managed my cash levels well through the first half of the year and in the downturn I was able to pick up some shares of what I consider to be S-Tier very high quality companies at reasonable prices. Those were AVGO, TXN, ARE, NVDA, AMD, TSM, CQP, LVMUY, DEO, and ABNB. I'm already up nicely on many of these positions. I don't think I got an insane deal- maybe had a 10-20% margin of safety down in the worst days of June on most of those names.

If the rally does want to continue- I expect quality cash flowing mid and small caps to continue their rally- they are far cheaper on average than US large caps are atm. I will swing trade part of my positions in IVOO and VIOO to get exposure to this (these two ETFs are core holdings of mine, however). International equities may also have more gas in the tank- but really dependent on country and their current circumstances.

Some lower quality names are also showing bullish tendencies in their charts and haven't ran like the rest of the market has- I opened a position in DAL and F in the past week. From everything I've read the airlines are kicking butt right now, and I think DAL could have a shot to run up another 30-40% if their margins get back in line- the revenues are already almost back to where they were in 2019- which was a great year for them. F is kicking butt as well right now- their margin expansion in Q2 was astonishing, I think something like 600 basis points. They're focusing on cleaning up their balance sheet right now paying down big debt and huge backlog of F150 and Mustang Mach E sales. I think their near term future is very bright- they make a good car.

[beshannon]

Processed 10 trades this morning, market is over bought and looking tired here.

[RBradleigh]

Random pat on the back.
Its cliche that we remember our bad beats more than celebrate our Wins. Out of curiosity I pulled up Fastly today and see it’s at $12/share.
I smile that I pulled out on this one

Bought at ~ $80

Remember to celebrate your wins ladies and gentlemen!


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[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by RBradleigh

Random pat on the back.

Great message and congrats on this one!

[beshannon]

The consumer remains resilient, HD and WMT both reported good earnings and solid guidance.

I am watching hoising starts and building permits. The market is overbought however I believe we will simply churn here for a bit.

[jaisonline]

I trimmed 3 more positions yesterday to increase my cash position after DCA down since May. Profit is a profit. Riskier / (I call these the “crap assets” in my portfolio : RBLX, DKNG, and GENI.

I’m bet big on online gambling stocks that offer Daily Fantasy Sports games. I’ll begin rebuy DKNG when it falls below $15 again. I’ve lived through recessions, high inflation, and other disasters since the 1980s and 1 thing is certain. People will still bet on sports regardless of what’s going around them. Just wish Flutter wasn’t OTC in the U.S.

The market is more than inflated again. Seems recently released 13F show more institutions are selling. Layoffs are starting. Rolling Debt is increasing. P/E forward guidance is still getting lowered. Inflation still rising (toys, food, services). Still waiting for the Fed to start QT. I’m still seeing the fallout from Bitcoin decline (haven’t seen so many Daytona and 5711s available (currently at late 2020 / early 2021 prices) and still declining.

Honestly wish I could go 75% cash right now. I’m not even a “doom and gloom” person. Just think the current market is built on only “hope”.

[xeal]

For those that are relatively liquid at this period, would you hold off before getting back in?
It's proving very tricky to know how to invest in this period.
I happen to find myself in a position where I'm extremely liquid.

I had sold alot of my crypto in Jan, and a huge chunk of my stocks. I was preparing to buy a property, even sold some watches I had owned for a long time, and I happened to dodge a lot of the damage that incurred shortly after. All by shear luck. I of course took a hit on some others, and intend to hold.
Meanwhile as real estate seems to start cracking which lead me to remain a little more patient before diving in, stock market seems to still be shaky, where do the folks that are liquid plan to go from here..

[MrGoat]

Originally Posted by xeal

For those that are relatively liquid at this period, would you hold off before getting back in?
It's proving very tricky to know how to invest in this period.
I happen to find myself in a position where I'm extremely liquid.

I had sold alot of my crypto in Jan, and a huge chunk of my stocks. I was preparing to buy a property, even sold some watches I had owned for a long time, and I happened to dodge a lot of the damage that incurred shortly after. All by shear luck. I of course took a hit on some others, and intend to hold.
Meanwhile as real estate seems to start cracking which lead me to remain a little more patient before diving in, stock market seems to still be shaky, where do the folks that are liquid plan to go from here..

I’ve been pretty liquid since September ish. Holding a small position in some play stocks.

Sitting on cash waiting for the housing market to collapse and then buy up some more rentals.

I predict it to be fairly devastating in my area as most of the jobs are residential construction related (including a majority of my primary job) so I will hold (hopefully) enough cash to float when the inevitable happens until reconstruction begins, then start building reserves again.


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[beshannon]

Originally Posted by xeal

For those that are relatively liquid at this period, would you hold off before getting back in?
It's proving very tricky to know how to invest in this period.
I happen to find myself in a position where I'm extremely liquid.

I had sold alot of my crypto in Jan, and a huge chunk of my stocks. I was preparing to buy a property, even sold some watches I had owned for a long time, and I happened to dodge a lot of the damage that incurred shortly after. All by shear luck. I of course took a hit on some others, and intend to hold.
Meanwhile as real estate seems to start cracking which lead me to remain a little more patient before diving in, stock market seems to still be shaky, where do the folks that are liquid plan to go from here..

What are your goals?
How long are your investments going to be held?
Why did you sell?

It seems you are looking for a timing answer

[xeal]

Originally Posted by MrGoat

I’ve been pretty liquid since September ish. Holding a small position in some play stocks.

Sitting on cash waiting for the housing market to collapse and then buy up some more rentals.

I predict it to be fairly devastating in my area as most of the jobs are residential construction related (including a majority of my primary job) so I will hold (hopefully) enough cash to float when the inevitable happens until reconstruction begins, then start building reserves again.


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Fair enough! Hope it works out well for you

Originally Posted by beshannon

What are your goals?
How long are your investments going to be held?
Why did you sell?

It seems you are looking for a timing answer

Not looking for a timing answer whatsoever, I dont believe anyone has that.
Goal is long term for sure, gladly hold 15+ years.
I didn't sell everything, but admittedly I also dont understand crypto that well. I bought in as alot of my colleagues and close friends believe in crypto, and I sold because I wanted to buy a property.
I only ever purchased the safer "blue chip" stocks, and still have a chunk in the stock market. I did not sell everything, but I'm also not the guy that plays in the stock market on a daily.
I've been buying very gradually over the years and it has served me well.

I'm relatively young, have a decent job, and for the first time in my life have a decent amount of liquidity which leaves me with an itch that I certainly dont want to make an expensive mistake with.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by xeal

Goal is long term for sure, gladly hold 15+ years.

The markets will go up and down many times in fifteen years.

I would be buying high quality growth either as individual equities or in funds and dollar cost average.

[HHIslander]

SPX RSI is hitting 75 and approaching the 200 day MA. Volume dropping. Vol getting under 20. Short term, this market is looking like it wants to turn around. Fed minutes may be the catalyst. I'm getting long some vol. YMMV.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by HHIslander

SPX RSI is hitting 75 and approaching the 200 day MA. Volume dropping. Vol getting under 20. Short term, this market is looking like it wants to turn around. Fed minutes may be the catalyst. I'm getting long some vol. YMMV.

i think everyone was expecting the same with spx at 4300 so everyone's stops got ran lol. even with the close it seems too obvious. agree though, but think it will come when we least expect. vix was down today too, so who even knows anymore

[MrGoat]

The halt was lifted and BBIG up 55% today. If it hits $5 I’m dumping it all and only holding my TYDE.


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[beshannon]

Fading this into the weekend, retail sales were a non event. Jackson Hole next week, indicators look tired as we are overbought here. I will hold my positions and cash until the picture changes

[BBL]

Well, just another day, another dollar.....
Powell just sunk the market, promised pain ahead............
"(Our) overarching focus is to bring inflation back down to our 2% goal. While higher interest rates will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses. These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation."

[huncho]

everyone knew a rate hike was still coming in sept and he said the % will depend entirely on data. i have no idea how that warrants a -3% drop in the market but algos run the show now so it is what it is

[jaisonline]

I’m still waiting for the Fed to unload their MBS assets. Actually, I believe that $ # increased each month since June last time I checked

[SDGT3]

Today was ugly, but the market got out ahead of itself and the pundits talked themselves into believing that the Fed was going to pivot. We're not even close to a pivot and may not be until mid 2023. Inflation is still at 8.6% and the Fed is way behind the curve. The run up in July and August was on very low volume as well.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by SDGT3

Today was ugly, but the market got out ahead of itself and the pundits talked themselves into believing that the Fed was going to pivot. We're not even close to a pivot and may not be until mid 2023. Inflation is still at 8.6% and the Fed is way behind the curve. The run up in July and August was on very low volume as well.

the fed changes their mind more than a teenage girl. i believe they said last month that they got the rates to where they originally wanted and now will go strictly off data (correct me if i'm wrong?). so that did sound like a possible pivot could happen, and if inflation starts coming in much lower in the coming months i bet they do pivot. so far we haven't had any data for august and it sounds like they're possibly changing their minds again

with that said, i don't think it will come in drastically lower though (or lower enough to pivot) any time soon judging by rent and food prices and even oil creeping back up. i also feel like they keep jacking up rates without seeing if it does anything, for example if you raise rates by 75 bps two months in a row, how long does it take for those changes to reflect? seems weird to give it 3-4 weeks and then drastically raise again

[SDGT3]

Originally Posted by huncho

the fed changes their mind more than a teenage girl. i believe they said last month that they got the rates to where they originally wanted and now will go strictly off data (correct me if i'm wrong?). so that did sound like a possible pivot could happen, and if inflation starts coming in much lower in the coming months i bet they do pivot. so far we haven't had any data for august and it sounds like they're possibly changing their minds again

with that said, i don't think it will come in drastically lower though (or lower enough to pivot) judging by rent and food prices and even oil creeping back up any time soon. i also feel like they keep jacking up rates without seeing if it does anything, for example if you raise rates by 75 bps two months in a row, how long does it take for those changes to reflect? seems weird to give it 3-4 weeks and then raise again

Personally, I never seen anything that could have been interpreted as a pivot. We did get data in August and the ONLY good news was that inflation went from 9.1% to 8.6% - not enough to make a dent in inflation, but it's a start. The other data point we got in August was the jobs numbers and those were better than expected so another sign the Fed should raise.

IMO, it's the financial reporters that talked themselves and others into believing that a pivot was on it's way given the lower inflation numbers and Biden saying they have 0% inflation now (not political but rather a quote). Reporters need to write something everyday and people want to be optimistic, but all the data has should is that there is a LONG way to go coupled with the Fed govenors who are most dovish are actually talking about .75% next month.

Are there signs of a slowing economy? Sure, look at housing starts, sales and inventory. All down, but prices haven't gone down enough given the run up even in the most affected areas like Las Vegas, Phoenix, Boise, Austin etc.

To your point, just as oil and gas prices were starting to go down, last week a Saudi prince said there's a disconnect in the oil markets and said Opec+ may have to cut production. As a result, oil touched $100 again.

Food prices are through the roof in every area even with the drop in gas/diesel. If only we could find a way to not eat, we may be able to cut down on that, but alas, it's no possible.

Let's finish this post up with more govt spending. Just last week Biden spent $.75T on a bill and another $300B+ on unilaterally forgiving student loans by executive order for a total of $1.1 Trillion dollars in just 1 week of spending! That is all inflationary and has been confirmed by a UPenn Wharton School of Business study.

[austinp]

Originally Posted by SDGT3

Personally, I never seen anything that could have been interpreted as a pivot. We did get data in August and the ONLY good news was that inflation went from 9.1% to 8.6% - not enough to make a dent in inflation, but it's a start. The other data point we got in August was the jobs numbers and those were better than expected so another sign the Fed should raise.

IMO, it's the financial reporters that talked themselves and others into believing that a pivot was on it's way given the lower inflation numbers and Biden saying they have 0% inflation now (not political but rather a quote). Reporters need to write something everyday and people want to be optimistic, but all the data has should is that there is a LONG way to go coupled with the Fed govenors who are most dovish are actually talking about .75% next month.

Are there signs of a slowing economy? Sure, look at housing starts, sales and inventory. All down, but prices haven't gone down enough given the run up even in the most affected areas like Las Vegas, Phoenix, Boise, Austin etc.

To your point, just as oil and gas prices were starting to go down, last week a Saudi prince said there's a disconnect in the oil markets and said Opec+ may have to cut production. As a result, oil touched $100 again.

Food prices are through the roof in every area even with the drop in gas/diesel. If only we could find a way to not eat, we may be able to cut down on that, but alas, it's no possible.

Let's finish this post up with more govt spending. Just last week Biden spent $.75T on a bill and another $300B+ on unilaterally forgiving student loans by executive order for a total of $1.1 Trillion dollars in just 1 week of spending! That is all inflationary and has been confirmed by a UPenn Wharton School of Business study.

Do you think we go back to the June lows? Or even lower?


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[superdog]

Originally Posted by austinp

Do you think we go back to the June lows? Or even lower?


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Lower.

[SDGT3]

Originally Posted by austinp

Do you think we go back to the June lows? Or even lower?


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No one knows for sure, but I think we'll test the lows. It's going to be a rough road going forward into autumn but there's no way the Fed is going to get to their target before the end of 2022 so I'm not going to fight the Fed.

[jaisonline]

Originally Posted by superdog

Lower.

Agreed. Historically, stocks have fallen in the early Fall. Then factor in fear and uncertainty concerns of 2022 : inflation, European energy, Russia - Ukraine, rate hikes, margin calls, escalated forward P/E, QT especially when MBS selling kicks in, etc…

[thedak]

Originally Posted by superdog

Lower.

Lower

[INC]

I've been an absolute skeptic and outsider to the crypto-tulip hype since the beginning, yet these days I wonder what will happen if BTC breaks $20,000 and starts to fall?

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by INC

I've been an absolute skeptic and outsider to the crypto-tulip hype since the beginning, yet these days I wonder what will happen if BTC breaks $20,000 and starts to fall?

I also believe it is riskier because IMHO it is based on nothing. Even if collapsed totally, it would not take the entire stock market with it. But it wouldn’t help and it would be a net negative.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by INC

I've been an absolute skeptic and outsider to the crypto-tulip hype since the beginning, yet these days I wonder what will happen if BTC breaks $20,000 and starts to fall?

it hit 17.5k in june due to mass liquidations so there's your answer. theoretically the next support would sit around 12k and everyone and their mother is expecting that to happen, but so far it survived a market sell of 130k btc (~$3-4b depending on when sold) in one month and sat around 18-20k for a month before coming back above

are you actually charting a google search result chart? lol. also theoretically the image you posted is a bullish pattern

[huncho]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

I also believe it is riskier because IMHO it is based on nothing. Even if collapsed totally, it would not take the entire stock market with it. But it wouldn’t help and it would be a net negative.

it's basically a mirror of the nasdaq/s&p these days. capitulation already happened in the crypto market in may and june so there's no real catalyst to push things down significantly further unless the ethereum merge blows up. the only people left standing are the ones that have been in from previous cycles and the only ones buying it today are the big players and algos on wall street. if it were to collapse further into the low teens then i think it'd be because we're visiting new lows in stocks and not the other way around. i don't think retail is touching it these days because they're too scared. tbh i'm surprised we only stopped at 17.5 in june and that there were that many buyers to absorb that big of a domino liquidation of billion dollar firms