is there a crisis for our watches???

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

The value retention and profit potential is a big concern to many people who otherwise would never lay 10K for an item fully disposable. That being said, those people will experience anguish as the market prices drop steeply until the market stabilizes. If the shutdowns continue and it appears they will, short term, most Rolex watches will be available for a discount to MSRP. Supply will be down but demand will be down much more so in the short term. The market had turned on watches last summer and the decline in buyers of anything was already apparent in declining aftermarket prices. Daytona held up until now.

X100 thanks for also pointing out what many people aren’t, the market was already in decline prior to world events and economies crashing

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by epicurus

Dont view a watch as an asset.....but as a tool that will last you a lifetime and there wont be a problem.

Exactly. There is a “Y factor” that should clear up any confusion. Isn’t a watch purchased for the owner??? At the time of purchase, the watch must have been good enough for the owner to pay whatever that amount was. How is there any conflict unless you suddenly fall out of love with the watch because the world around values the watch less???? If you really love the watch, why do you care what the world now values the watch at any given moment????? You already paid for it so anything beyond that is a mute point of concern.

[ninjin]

Anyone who bought a current release model (not vintage) from a grey in the past 36months is going to lose money if they decide to sell, PERIOD.

Anyone who bought a hot model at Retail price will not loose much, worst case 10% but majority will still be up. Some like a SS Daytona will always be up, maybe not at the craziness before Covid19 but up none the less.

BUT.... If someone bought a watch within their means and has no intention of selling it, then what it is worth at purchase or in the future, really has nothing to do with it.

People used to buy watches because they liked it and could afford it. With the advent of social media platforms and 'flexing', many buyers have over stretched themselves financially to buy a Rolex, albeit with the false sense of security of the value on Chrono24/Watchfinder.

Those who are able to afford a Rolex within their means are not going to be losing any sleep over their Rolex.

The world will not be the same after this Pandemic, whether socially or financially. It's the Earth hitting 'clean junk and hidden files' button. Priorities will change, finances will change. Many people will be in financial hardship during and after Covid19... This is at all levels, Poor, Working class or the Rich.


Overall, you can't buy good health, wish you all to stay safe.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by epicurus

Dont view a watch as an asset.....but as a tool that will last you a lifetime and there wont be a problem.

I don’t have a problem.

I’m just asking fine folks such as yourself to see viewpoints other than your own.

Because the reality of the situation is that by definition, a watch worth 10k is an asset.

And even if you don’t agree with someone seeing it that way, it’s reasonable that someone else does.

That’s my only ask. That we all have empathy for each other and realize our viewpoint is not the only one. And also not the only correct one.

[thomaspp]

On another thread someone is reporting bobs watches is only paying $12k for 116500 black and $14.2k for 116500 white....


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[Pam673]

Never expect a mass produced watch to be an investment...unless it's a Rolex

That's how a lot of people were bought on board to the brand. Buying a Rolex becomes one of their asset diversification strategy, believe it or not.

Rolex has the awesomeness of guarantee liquidity in any market turbulence, right?

This pearl of wisdom will get tested the whole hog in the next couple of months.

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by Pam673

Never expect a mass produced watch to be an investment...unless it's a Rolex

That's how a lot of people were bought on board to the brand. Buying a Rolex becomes one of their asset diversification strategy, believe it or not.

Rolex has the awesomeness of guarantee liquidity in any market turbulence, right?

This pearl of wisdom will get tested the whole hog in the next couple of months.

We laughed at the sales pitch that was used for decades of Rolex currency getting you out of a 3rd world bind. We also use to gage your readiness to make a Rolex purchase if you could flush the amount for the watch down the toilet and it shouldn’t affect your daily life or quality of living. This was common forum advise give long before you had to pay msrp to purchase a Rolex. Nothing has changed 10 years later. In the end it’s just a luxury watch.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Mystro

We laughed at the sales pitch that was used for decades of Rolex currency getting you out of a 3rd world bind. We also use to gage your readiness to make a Rolex purchase if you could flush the amount for the watch down the toilet and it shouldn’t affect your daily life or quality of living. This was common forum advise give long before you had to pay msrp to purchase a Rolex. Nothing has changed 10 years later. In the end it’s just a luxury watch.

must agree. unless its simply a tool for telling time, I have been disagreeing for years that these are tool watches.

if it is a tool, it is a really bad and very expensive one. especially when the phone in your pockets has 100x the time telling functionality.

it is quite simply a luxury watch.

[helloworldies]

Watchfinder in the UK refused to take in a BLNR in trade. They have so many
in stock they can't sell. In the end they took it but under duress.
The bought my 5164a just before the start of all this, and did all they could to pull out of the purchase..
I sold off the more hyped watches out of my collection in January when you could see this starting to take hold and am quite relieved.
If anything it makes you appreciate other brands and less hyped models.
If you have these watches now don't try and sell unless you really have to.

[dtwer]

Originally Posted by Bladeshot

These watches are luxury items. Luxury items are not investments. Stocks, mutual funds, real estate; those are investments. Enjoy your watches. When the value bounces back, sell them if you don’t love them, and put your money in a real investment.

If you buy watches based on “what other people tell you”, you are at risk, in my opinion. Luxury items are the first thing that gets cut in a crunch. Tour le meilleur.

I think by the time everything bounces back it would be a bit on the late side for buying investments. now is the time to invest.

[Rolexatlast]

Originally Posted by Anton911

It’s the same old nay slayers posting these threads.People who are desperately hoping Rolex will drop like a stone so they can afford to buy.
This forum is full of these sad threads and sad people.

[DayTona78]

Issue is, prob 90% of the buyers aren't the right ones. One needs only ask those buyers to intelligently talk about the watch they own, its movement, history and why it is different or better from the rest of the models from same watchmaker or others etc etc.

I'd be curious on the answer. :)
You're unlikely to get more than something the long the lines of..."it's a beautiful watch, everybody wants it, almost no one can get it, it's an investment, people think you're somebody once they see you wearing it... blah blah blah."

Basically, herd mentality...hence all the price speculating in most watch forums.

I had no idea what greys were 2 months ago...until i got here. Had to google it because everyone kept talking about it/them here. LOL

Originally Posted by Mystro

Exactly. There is a “Y factor” that should clear up any confusion. Isn’t a watch purchased for the owner??? At the time of purchase, the watch must have been good enough for the owner to pay whatever that amount was. How is there any conflict unless you suddenly fall out of love with the watch because the world around values the watch less???? If you really love the watch, why do you care what the world now values the watch at any given moment????? You already paid for it so anything beyond that is a mute point of concern.

[JRique]

Watches are not a real investment, when you buy a stock you look what is the intrinsic value of the business, the revenue, profitability and so. When you buy a Daytona that has a MSRP of $12k for $25k you are doing it for all reasons, but not as a investment.

I can't say for sure but I don't see a Daytona costing more than $2k to be manufactured, the luxury market has a insane markup, not only watches, but everything, and now that we have a world collapsing this big bubble will simply burst.

The supply was being artificially controlled by Grey Dealers that now are sitting on watches that they can't sell, even in MSRP, AD's will be closed for months and has high operation costs.

Hope that I am wrong, but I see the watches industry suffering for 2 years at least.

[toomuchtalk]

Smell the coffee.

There are more important things happening on the planet now than whether to worry about the price of a mass production watch.

I have a Rolex collection. And thats ok.

Am i bothered about it right now? No way.

Im worried about my friends working in the NHS.

Its a watch.

[johnjm]

Originally Posted by JRique

Watches are not a real investment, when you buy a stock you look what is the intrinsic value of the business, the revenue, profitability and so. When you buy a Daytona that has a MSRP of $12k for $25k you are doing it for all reasons, but not as a investment.

I can't say for sure but I don't see a Daytona costing more than $2k to be manufactured, the luxury market has a insane markup, not only watches, but everything, and now that we have a world collapsing this big bubble will simply burst.

The supply was being artificially controlled by Grey Dealers that now are sitting on watches that they can't sell, even in MSRP, AD's will be closed for months and has high operation costs.

Hope that I am wrong, but I see the watches industry suffering for 2 years at least.

It could be argued that the watches themselves are similar to a market share in Rolex : chuckle:

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[uhren917]

[QUOTE=JRique;10512996]Watches are not a real investment, when you buy a stock you look what is the intrinsic value of the business, the revenue, profitability and so. /QUOTE]

Your genius explanation doesnt explain Paintings for instance which ARE considered investments in some circles.

If I have learned one thing, it is not to come to TRF to become educated.

[superdog]

[QUOTE=uhren917;10513055]

Originally Posted by JRique

Watches are not a real investment, when you buy a stock you look what is the intrinsic value of the business, the revenue, profitability and so. /QUOTE]

Your genius explanation doesnt explain Paintings for instance which ARE considered investments in some circles.

If I have learned one thing, it is not to come to TRF to become educated.

That last line is where you went wrong, imho.

Lots of incredible information here. Similarly lots of bad info.

Just like every other gathering/community/situation on the planet.

But as with any community you will have a lot of viewpoints. Some worth more than others. Mine is that it’s always a mistake to generalize.

[boogiebot]

Agree with superdog

[Harry-57]

Originally Posted by superdog

Because the reality of the situation is that by definition, a watch worth 10k is an asset.

Indeed. Even if you paid more for it than it is currently wort, it's still an asset. Assuming that you own it. If it was worth $1 and you could realise that amount by selling it, it's an asset.

But an investment? Not in my world. Way to flaky and susceptible to big swings. Just like stocks, which are also not investments. No form of gambling ever is.

That's just my opinion. Wouldn't the world be dull if we all thought and did the same? And I'll wager it wouldn't make any more sense or be any more predictable. That's people for you.

[Xerxes77]

Originally Posted by charlykane

hi
there is a friend of mine saying that my hulk and my sky dweller complications , are going down for this period , and rolex watches too btw..
i don't think it's true , because when i see the websites that are selling rolex , don't see any differences so far

is there something true in this?

Your Hulk and SkyDweller like my SkyDweller will be on MRSP price.

I think it’s ok to be like this...

What I will enjoy will be AD sellers who will change their arrogance into a more kindness persons.

[mml4]

I used to think that grey market meant goods not produced for the domestic market as is seen in the camera world. These grey market items sell for less than those produced for the domestic market of the various countries. There is no warranty support from the manufacturer/importer as well. I can see the grey watch market being forced back into that business model with msrp being the benchmark price against which the grey market watch is discounted.I believe the day of the 2xmsrp Daytona is over.

The financial repercussions of this pandemic is going to be around for a long time after the virus is defeated.

[bin31z]

I knew prices were getting crazy when I saw some app that was essentially trading hot watches like EFTs. You'd buy a 100 dollar share of a pool that holds a ceramic daytona. Same thing in the whisky world I think. These are luxury goods, eventually someone has to wear the watch or drink the whisky and it just doesn't make sense that people are hoarding these $10k watches or $10k bottles of Macallan.

[Bladeshot]

Originally Posted by dtwer

I think by the time everything bounces back it would be a bit on the late side for buying investments. now is the time to invest.

Agreed. I jumped in across the last 2 weeks.

[carl5]

Originally Posted by aw9nineteen

Grey Market Prices Coming Down (daily tracker)
https://r.tapatalk.com/shareLink/top...ink_source=app

The ultimate thread


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Thanks for sharing and all should stay safe ..

[carl5]

No crisis of any such.. and i still enjoy my watches

[Rushhour]

Originally Posted by dchernikoff

Very well put, thanks for posting that!

To the OP, there are much better investments than luxury watches (unless you're a grey, I guess!). Buy it, wear it, enjoy it. To me the value of my Rolexes (and TRF) lately are that they take my mind off the stress and worry of COVID-19, family safety, and being sheltered-in-place for so long. Right now that temporary respite is priceless, to me!

-Dan

Very true.

After my shower every morning I put my Milgauss Z on. Just something about having it on my wrist just brings a small smile on my face when I look at it.

It is gonna be a well worn in watch by the end of this craziness.

Resale value to me right now - priceless.

Everyone stay safe.


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[GovernorsGovernor]

Originally Posted by toomuchtalk

Smell the coffee.

There are more important things happening on the planet now than whether to worry about the price of a mass production watch.

I have a Rolex collection. And thats ok.

Am i bothered about it right now? No way.

Im worried about my friends working in the NHS.

Its a watch.

Agreed. But this is a watch site, so we talk about watches. If you're MORE concerned about what's happening in the world today, then why are YOU here? You have more important things to worry about than policing others on a watch forum, right???

[kneedeep]

Not unless you have your own crisis going on.

[Fallranger]

Originally Posted by Dan Pierce

Yep, that's the difference between buying for profit vs buying for enjoyment. While the market value might go down the enjoyment value can continue to reap benefits.
dP

This. If you bought it to enjoy it a health scare across the globe can’t stifle that. I enjoy my pieces even more now as I know they are something special and unique to me in the midst of a bit of chaos.


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[outdoors_guy]

Originally Posted by Nairn1980

Yeh market is down a bit for sure.
It’ll come back but it could take a while

Or it might not, at least not for the specific watches that are hot now.

Let’s say it is a seller’s market again in 2025. There is no reason to assume that someone’s specific 5-15 year old rolex at that point will be a hot model once again. Maybe in a few years the Cellini will be the hot new thing and the hulk will be just one more Rolex. Maybe, the circa 2019 Air King will be the hot model that everyone will want to claim that they always loved when the rest of the world called it ugly. Maybe people will finally wake up and realize that there is something ironic (and not in a good way) about having a haute horologie sports watch (ie a watch that is supposed to be knocked around from a brand that gives such attention is given to finishing).