Now that things are opening up I feel the grey market demand will drop.

[Mrngrz46]

Time to time I like to repost a very illuminating post from a user active on patek section.

This explain why market is like this and because it will not change.

Good reading for all “who not have-> market will go down”

Originally Posted by mwireless
Here is where you are wrong my friend. Patek has directly engineered the hype and will not let up because they are directly benefiting from it. AP and Rolex are following suit. Let me explain how and why.


Patek most certainly benefits from this hype and is also profiting directly way more than any gray market dealer ever could. If a 5711 is listed for 30k but the market price is 100k , there is a 70k difference right? Gray market dealers may grab some pieces at 80-90k and sell them for 95-100k making about 10-15k. They aren't grabbing them at 30k because nobody is stupid enough to sell them at 30k.

But the list is 30k right? Well in order for you to get one at list you need to spend 200k-300k and the Authorized dealers are telling you, Hey if you buy an annual calendar or calatrava or a watch for your wife or whatever other watch, you will have a better chance of getting your grail and instead of blowing 70k in the aftermarket atleast with us you will get something else for it. Most people buy into this and spend on other watches and guess who directly benefits 100% on that spread? Patek Philippe. In fact you end up spending probably wayyyy more than just that 70k difference.

While this wasn't the case even 5 years ago, it is the case today. What changed? Well PP began to incorporate the Hermes style of selling, It's coming down from the head of the company. This is the marketing technique that Hermes uses to sell Birkins... You need high dollar purchase history to be offered the chance to buy a Birkin bag. If you aren't familiar with this then it's hard to explain how well it works because it has been working for the better part of 50 years.

Also, Rolex and AP have basically kicked out any AD's that were discounting their watches in the past 2-3 years and have tightened up their supply as well. 3 Years ago if you wanted a royal oak chrono u could walk in and get one with a 10-15% discount. Now it's a 3 year waitlist. Walk into your rolex boutique and tell me you don't see empty watch showcases. All manipulation coming from the brand.

Did the whole world suddenly start buying watches like they were going to run out? Yes and No. Demand is certainly up but supply has been tightened as well. Why you ask? Why not just sell as many watches as possible? Well that's what they used to do and they had to discount watches. But you know what works better than discounting watches? Telling the buyer he can't have the watch he wants. The minute you tell someone you CAN'T get this, guess what happens. They do whatever it takes to get it. It's the cool club effect. Everyone wants to get into the club with the line outside that's hard to get into. Exclusivity sells.

So while you think gray market dealers are making off with 70k on these deals through some sort of price run up they are orchestrating the real game is being played by PP, AP and Rolex by tightening supply. Your next question should be well if they're tightening supply aren't they selling less watches? No, in fact they are selling more watches because they have tightened supply on only their best selling timepieces and in order to get them you need to buy their other watches which raises the brand awareness.

Why did the offshore take off and then popularity die off? It was limited in the beginning and then Too easily accessible. This is why TS discontinued the 5711. It's market manipulation but not by gray market dealers... Honestly have you talked to some of these guys? You give them way too much credit if you think they're able to manipulate the market LOL. I know so many dealers who have almost completely missed the run up on some of these watches because they couldn't understand what was happening. It's the brand itself that is doing it and benefitting wholly and directly from it. And it is the New Normal. If you think they days of getting popular watches at list is coming back anytime soon you are going to be waiting forever because this is not a market anomaly, it's a complete shift in selling strategy that is being taught and directed at the highest level down to the dealers.

This keeps the demand hot by limiting their best pieces (daytonas, nautilus, royal oak) and sales remain high at the same time because you are buying their other pieces to move up higher in line to get the best ones. I can't explain it any better. The brands are playing Chess, while everyone else is playing checkers.

[Seddyspaghetti]

Originally Posted by Mrngrz46

Time to time I like to repost a very illuminating post from a user active on patek section.

This explain why market is like this and because it will not change.

Good reading for all “who not have-> market will go down”

Originally Posted by mwireless
Here is where you are wrong my friend. Patek has directly engineered the hype and will not let up because they are directly benefiting from it. AP and Rolex are following suit. Let me explain how and why.


Patek most certainly benefits from this hype and is also profiting directly way more than any gray market dealer ever could. If a 5711 is listed for 30k but the market price is 100k , there is a 70k difference right? Gray market dealers may grab some pieces at 80-90k and sell them for 95-100k making about 10-15k. They aren't grabbing them at 30k because nobody is stupid enough to sell them at 30k.

But the list is 30k right? Well in order for you to get one at list you need to spend 200k-300k and the Authorized dealers are telling you, Hey if you buy an annual calendar or calatrava or a watch for your wife or whatever other watch, you will have a better chance of getting your grail and instead of blowing 70k in the aftermarket atleast with us you will get something else for it. Most people buy into this and spend on other watches and guess who directly benefits 100% on that spread? Patek Philippe. In fact you end up spending probably wayyyy more than just that 70k difference.

While this wasn't the case even 5 years ago, it is the case today. What changed? Well PP began to incorporate the Hermes style of selling, It's coming down from the head of the company. This is the marketing technique that Hermes uses to sell Birkins... You need high dollar purchase history to be offered the chance to buy a Birkin bag. If you aren't familiar with this then it's hard to explain how well it works because it has been working for the better part of 50 years.

Also, Rolex and AP have basically kicked out any AD's that were discounting their watches in the past 2-3 years and have tightened up their supply as well. 3 Years ago if you wanted a royal oak chrono u could walk in and get one with a 10-15% discount. Now it's a 3 year waitlist. Walk into your rolex boutique and tell me you don't see empty watch showcases. All manipulation coming from the brand.

Did the whole world suddenly start buying watches like they were going to run out? Yes and No. Demand is certainly up but supply has been tightened as well. Why you ask? Why not just sell as many watches as possible? Well that's what they used to do and they had to discount watches. But you know what works better than discounting watches? Telling the buyer he can't have the watch he wants. The minute you tell someone you CAN'T get this, guess what happens. They do whatever it takes to get it. It's the cool club effect. Everyone wants to get into the club with the line outside that's hard to get into. Exclusivity sells.

So while you think gray market dealers are making off with 70k on these deals through some sort of price run up they are orchestrating the real game is being played by PP, AP and Rolex by tightening supply. Your next question should be well if they're tightening supply aren't they selling less watches? No, in fact they are selling more watches because they have tightened supply on only their best selling timepieces and in order to get them you need to buy their other watches which raises the brand awareness.

Why did the offshore take off and then popularity die off? It was limited in the beginning and then Too easily accessible. This is why TS discontinued the 5711. It's market manipulation but not by gray market dealers... Honestly have you talked to some of these guys? You give them way too much credit if you think they're able to manipulate the market LOL. I know so many dealers who have almost completely missed the run up on some of these watches because they couldn't understand what was happening. It's the brand itself that is doing it and benefitting wholly and directly from it. And it is the New Normal. If you think they days of getting popular watches at list is coming back anytime soon you are going to be waiting forever because this is not a market anomaly, it's a complete shift in selling strategy that is being taught and directed at the highest level down to the dealers.

This keeps the demand hot by limiting their best pieces (daytonas, nautilus, royal oak) and sales remain high at the same time because you are buying their other pieces to move up higher in line to get the best ones. I can't explain it any better. The brands are playing Chess, while everyone else is playing checkers.

Nice explanation of the AD games

[SLWoodster]

These conversations are always so pointless and not about watches, just market watching.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by SLWoodster

These conversations are always so pointless and not about watches, just market watching.

It's very polarizing as there are many on TRF who have absolutely no difficulty obtaining their watches from AD without any bother...so what's all the fuss?

Others will never see a watch thry want from an AD and want to vent...

[SLWoodster]

It's a really dumb conversation because it's really about relativity. It's a relative feeling or idea about whether they subjectively believe it's "worth it" or not based on what prices they have seen before and what they think other people are paying.

Buy it at market price and enjoy it or keep buying stuff you don't want until you're offered one.

It's that simple. Plenty of people win lotto tickets. This is not that different.

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

It's very polarizing as there are many on TRF who have absolutely no difficulty obtaining their watches from AD without any bother...so what's all the fuss?

Others will never see a watch thry want from an AD and want to vent...

[donq]

WIS’s plan and Rolex laughs…

[Nikrnic]

The bubble will burst you say.. Hmm we'll see. The Supply and Demand factor seems to be growing apart more everyday. I hope your right to some extent. I never did or will buy a new Rolex from a grey dealer so that part doesn't matter to me at all. My AD has gotten me any piece I've wanted and has ordered for me as well. However when I visited yesterday he told me couldn't order a a black Milgauss but give him time and he'll pull through. I have no worries but that told me nothing can be ordered right now so I don't see prices softening or demand. If you want to talk bubble though just look at the 5711 or YG green Daytona.


Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[gerry100]

Gotta believe that the huge increase in purchasing power in China and Asia that has ramped up in the last 20 yrs is the major cause of higher prices on luxury goods

[Francist]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

It's very polarizing as there are many on TRF who have absolutely no difficulty obtaining their watches from AD without any bother...so what's all the fuss?

Others will never see a watch thry want from an AD and want to vent...

Yeap. I think most people here have also realized that.
Those who r talking prices down neither have the watch nor the means to get one.
Grey has more stocks, so what?!?! Do people think they gonna starve to death if they r not selling? Have u fkg see their cars / yachts?