Prices slump by up to 50% for discontinued Rolex watches (Watchpro)

[psm11]

26331 black dial for 35.9k. Granted it’s watch only and missing links and could use a polish. But damn, that was like 90k beginning of the year.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by Mathematoxic

The watch market is dead… AD games are nonsense considering we have a BNIB watch for sale every other day. They are simply selling back door to flippers and greys. An AD told me they received 0 116508(any dial) over the past 2 years. I smiled at the SA and left

LOL. They’ll be coming hat in hand very shortly. Tables are turning and reverting to the mean. Market is so out of sync and liquidity has dried up.

[Etschell]

vc meh. not shocked. they put all their stock in china. good for them. now they'll get owned for it.

[Crown & Shield]

Originally Posted by Mathematoxic

The watch market is dead… AD games are nonsense considering we have a BNIB watch for sale every other day. They are simply selling back door to flippers and greys. An AD told me they received 0 116508(any dial) over the past 2 years. I smiled at the SA and left

Some ADs would probably rather sell at a discount to greys in order to keep the "scarcity" myth alive, because without that BS argument their entire business model crumbles.

[shaunylw]

Originally Posted by Mathematoxic

The watch market is dead… AD games are nonsense considering we have a BNIB watch for sale every other day. They are simply selling back door to flippers and greys. An AD told me they received 0 116508(any dial) over the past 2 years. I smiled at the SA and left

People put way too much weight into this back door grey stuff yes it’s happening, but not like it used to. People are literally getting on lists, waiting until they get called and immediately flipping. That’s the majority of the BNIB watches we see from greys. The ADs have no reason to continue selling to greys. All of the watches they were sitting on, the smaller ladies pieces, the smaller DJs and OPs, they are all being sold. So the sales to greys in bulk don’t make sense right now. If they are doing it, it’s unessasary risk. It was a good deal for both parties previously, it’s not a great deal for the ADs now days. Especially considering how many ADs are losing their Rolex accounts. If everything tanks again, greys are selling under retail, the back door selling will make sense.


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[Vince_76]

15710st box & papers good condition - 22.5k

15450 blue dial still under warranty, and extra 1.5 link - 33.5k

Both sitting.

Yeah… royal oaks ain’t coming back anytime soon

[Mathematoxic]

Originally Posted by shaunylw

People put way too much weight into this back door grey stuff yes it’s happening, but not like it used to. People are literally getting on lists, waiting until they get called and immediately flipping. That’s the majority of the BNIB watches we see from greys. The ADs have no reason to continue selling to greys. All of the watches they were sitting on, the smaller ladies pieces, the smaller DJs and OPs, they are all being sold. So the sales to greys in bulk don’t make sense right now. If they are doing it, it’s unessasary risk. It was a good deal for both parties previously, it’s not a great deal for the ADs now days. Especially considering how many ADs are losing their Rolex accounts. If everything tanks again, greys are selling under retail, the back door selling will make sense.


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I get what you mean. I think it’s slightly different now. These smaller DJs and OPs or those less wanted pieces are being allocated slowly to consumers. It’s those hyped pieces being sold back door with additional profits. How would an AD not receive a single piece of 116508 in 2 years.. Anyway good luck to them.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by Mathematoxic

I get what you mean. I think it’s slightly different now. These smaller DJs and OPs or those less wanted pieces are being allocated slowly to consumers. It’s those hyped pieces being sold back door with additional profits. How would an AD not receive a single piece of 116508 in 2 years.. Anyway good luck to them.

they're getting them and selling them to VIPs, they're just lying to people because it's easier than saying you're not worth a call

[Vince M.]

Originally Posted by huncho

they're getting them and selling them to VIPs, they're just lying to people because it's easier than saying you're not worth a call

Watches always came in and watches always went to VIP's. MORE watches came in 2021 and 2022 than in any other time in Rolex history.

[Etschell]

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/m...140000256.html

[Fedpete]

Have any of you guys seen a green dial anniversary RO come through on Moda and if so what is that trending at?


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[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by Fedpete

Have any of you guys seen a green dial anniversary RO come through on Moda and if so what is that trending at?


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Haven’t been looking closely. One just went at auction for 61.7k BNIB full set

They are trending lower

[Fedpete]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Haven’t been looking closely. One just went at auction for 61.7k BNIB full set

They are trending lower

Thanks Vince for your diligent service to all of us with pricing.


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[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by Fedpete

Thanks Vince for your diligent service to all of us with pricing.


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Of course. Just keeping it real ahead of the haters saying “prices are rebounding”, “to the moon” and all that BS.

Datejust 126300 & GMT BLNR oyster set for $22.5k. Seems like a two for one deal from yesterday’s pricing. It’s going to get much worse lol. It’s very clear prices are reverting to their historic mean.

[Benzsiam]

I am still waiting for AP ROC 26331OR/26240OR with full bracelet (blue dial) to comes down, but it doesn't seems coming down much at all.

[ThatOtherGuy7]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Of course. Just keeping it real ahead of the haters saying “prices are rebounding”, “to the moon” and all that BS.

Datejust 126300 & GMT BLNR oyster set for $22.5k. Seems like a two for one deal from yesterday’s pricing. It’s going to get much worse lol. It’s very clear prices are reverting to their historic mean.

So from US MSRP of $8K for DJ and $10.7K for Batman, the $22.5K is essentially $1,500-2,000 profit over MSRP+tax (9-10%). That means BLNR is going for almost MSRP?!

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by ThatOtherGuy7

So from US MSRP of $8K for DJ and $10.7K for Batman, the $22.5K is essentially $1,500-2,000 profit over MSRP+tax (9-10%). That means BLNR is going for almost MSRP?!

This seller is definitely in trouble… but yes - they are definitely trending towards MSRP

[911AP]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Of course. Just keeping it real ahead of the haters saying “prices are rebounding”, “to the moon” and all that BS.

Datejust 126300 & GMT BLNR oyster set for $22.5k. Seems like a two for one deal from yesterday’s pricing. It’s going to get much worse lol. It’s very clear prices are reverting to their historic mean.

This seems like a massively speculative exercise that everyone is drinking the koolaid on.

Who are buying these watches? Watches are still being sold by ADs, boutiques, and greys. The big greys are still doing business as usual moving inventory. So these moda prices that keep getting posted here....who is buying these watches? If in fact "no one is buying" the market would collapse below retail.

There is this image being painted in this thread that no one is buying, and I think everyone is ignoring the simple fact that if that were true... the market would be FAR WORSE. So can someone actually buy one of these moda watches or know anyone who has?

[N3VO]

I think there's a few members that have, I will say I personally think some of the sales on there seem fake, for example someone posted a BLNR new earlier for 17k earlier then marked it sold not too much later, that seems very high.

[ColoradoTime]

Originally Posted by 911AP

This seems like a massively speculative exercise that everyone is drinking the koolaid on.

Who are buying these watches? Watches are still being sold by ADs, boutiques, and greys. The big greys are still doing business as usual moving inventory. So these moda prices that keep getting posted here....who is buying these watches? If in fact "no one is buying" the market would collapse below retail.

There is this image being painted in this thread that no one is buying, and I think everyone is ignoring the simple fact that if that were true... the market would be FAR WORSE. So can someone actually buy one of these moda watches or know anyone who has?

No question that people are buying and selling right now. I think that demand has waned and there is downward pressure on prices - so inventory sits longer and there is more negotiation on prices than you have seen recently. Really no different than a falling stock market with people picking up pieces at prices they think are attractive. I suspect that this trend will continue - but who knows.

[Vince_76]

BLNR with card and tag for $13.8k. Small chip on sapphire but could replace that for a couple hundred from Rolex.

Another full set for 14.9k

Another full set with 10.5 links for 14.9k

AP RO Chrono 26331 panda full set BNIB 2022 went at auction for 44.5k. New low and mind you, auctions provide inflated pricing.

Lol at anyone thinking anything is stabilizing.

[messikens]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

BLNR with card and tag for $13.8k. Small chip on sapphire but could replace that for a couple hundred from Rolex.

Another full set for 14.9k

Another full set with 10.5 links for 14.9k

AP RO Chrono 26331 panda full set BNIB 2022 went at auction for 44.5k. New low and mind you, auctions provide inflated pricing.

Lol at anyone thinking anything is stabilizing.

Thanks for all the pricing updates Vince! With dmash AFK it's now all you :-).
Don't forget about my APs...

[GGGMT]

Thinking We might hit rock bottom tomorrow. Not a sure bet, just a maybe.


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[onyourbikes]

Originally Posted by GGGMT

Thinking We might hit rock bottom tomorrow. Not a sure bet, just a maybe.


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Rock bottom tomorrow? They have a long way to drop yet, but it's coming,and fast. The last gasps of Christmas saving the market are fading, credit card bills for December rolling in soon. Rate hike coming soon.

All point toward availability at retail and grey market below MSRP on most models.

The lunacy has ended, the dealers are just trying to hide from reality.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by GGGMT

Thinking We might hit rock bottom tomorrow. Not a sure bet, just a maybe.


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All my data points to this Friday as the day we hit bottom.

[norcalgt3]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

BLNR with card and tag for $13.8k. Small chip on sapphire but could replace that for a couple hundred from Rolex.

Another full set for 14.9k

Another full set with 10.5 links for 14.9k

AP RO Chrono 26331 panda full set BNIB 2022 went at auction for 44.5k. New low and mind you, auctions provide inflated pricing.

Lol at anyone thinking anything is stabilizing.

Might want to caveat those are old BLNRs (without the new movement) and have been at that price for a while. New batgirls at 17k still selling.

For every low sale, I can point to counter ones in the same group selling higher. Until you can walk into an AD and get a Pepsi or BLNR (which were in cases before) at retail in case, things are still not bottoming but normalizing and higher than precovid.

For others who expect stainless steel pieces to be below retail, will you have a job in that scenario? It's like people who claimed they would buy as much bitcoin as they could sub30k. Few backed up their words.

[MILGAUSS88]

Originally Posted by shaunylw

People put way too much weight into this back door grey stuff yes it’s happening, but not like it used to. People are literally getting on lists, waiting until they get called and immediately flipping. That’s the majority of the BNIB watches we see from greys. The ADs have no reason to continue selling to greys. All of the watches they were sitting on, the smaller ladies pieces, the smaller DJs and OPs, they are all being sold. So the sales to greys in bulk don’t make sense right now. If they are doing it, it’s unessasary risk. It was a good deal for both parties previously, it’s not a great deal for the ADs now days. Especially considering how many ADs are losing their Rolex accounts. If everything tanks again, greys are selling under retail, the back door selling will make sense.


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It makes sense for the AD, to sell hot models to gray dealers at more than retail.
Pretty sure that's what's been going on the last few years.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by norcalgt3

Might want to caveat those are old BLNRs (without the new movement) and have been at that price for a while. New batgirls at 17k still selling.

For every low sale, I can point to counter ones in the same group selling higher. Until you can walk into an AD and get a Pepsi or BLNR (which were in cases before) at retail in case, things are still not bottoming but normalizing and higher than precovid.

For others who expect stainless steel pieces to be below retail, will you have a job in that scenario? It's like people who claimed they would buy as much bitcoin as they could sub30k. Few backed up their words.

Thanks for chiming in. I did not know that the older GMTs had a different movement.

Regarding pricing - yes I am aware where new batgirls are trading. But I will know that there is only about a 12% difference when you compare those brand new pieces to the older stock.

And yes I am very confident and thankful that I will have a job. You can’t conflate a downturn in the secondary watch market with widespread economic hardship. They are mutually exclusive. Doesn’t mean that they can’t both happen at the same time. I’m of the opinion that the economy will get worse before it gets better, and that the watch market will get a lot worse.

Many here have short memories and don’t remember that we were in the midst of one of the longest bull runs in US history with pieces still trading below retail (see 2016-2018).

[yachty 1]

^^^^ the good old days. 25 percent off my AP! APs would just be readily available.

[Wuls]

Well I have tried buying, on two occasions, a holy trinity steel watch from two different traders - one Middle East based, one US based. On both occasions, the watches were priced well, so perhaps that's all the explanation needed but on both occasions they first reply was quick and the second reply to close the deal was ' sorry already sold'. I am thus a little suspicious of what's really going on at Moda.