Talking Stocks 2.0

[locutus49]

When Cramer on CNBC panics and says sell, it is the time to buy. He gave that signal in 2008/9.

[Patton250]

Since the interest rates have gone down so much is this a great time to refinance your home?

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by locutus49

When Cramer on CNBC panics and says sell, it is the time to buy. He gave that signal in 2008/9.

Yes very true

[beshannon]

Solid bounce since 10, VIX dropped to 44, 10 year yield up to .773%

Will have to see after Europe closes and then 2 pm margin calls

[Dubshack]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Since the interest rates have gone down so much is this a great time to refinance your home?

Yes. Doing mine now and shortening amortization.


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[mgsooner]

Originally Posted by locutus49

When Cramer on CNBC panics and says sell, it is the time to buy. He gave that signal in 2008/9.

They know nothing?

[SMD]

Originally Posted by locutus49

When Cramer on CNBC panics and says sell, it is the time to buy. He gave that signal in 2008/9.

He gave his epic rant in the summer of 2007....

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by Dubshack

Yes. Doing mine now and shortening amortization.


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Thank you. I will definitely look into it

[beshannon]

10 year back down, equities back down VIX back up

My guess is that this will be an ugly close today

[austinp]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Since the interest rates have gone down so much is this a great time to refinance your home?

Doing mine now as well. 2 1/8% with 1 point for a 15yr. Going to do the rentals as well.

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[Patton250]

Originally Posted by austinp

Doing mine now as well. 2 1/8% with 1 point for a 15yr. Going to do the rentals as well.

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Can you recommend a mortgage guy? I made one phone call yesterday and they were still at 2.8%. Thanks

[beshannon]

VIX at 49 Dow down 800 S&P well below 2940

I would really like to see a capitulation close here

Opinion: A watershed moment is on the way if stocks can’t hold this level

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-...vel-2020-03-06

It is high time for investors to bring some sophistication to their investments other than just either sending the money to funds or buying when the stock market dips.

Hope is not a strategy

Investors who are still stubbornly refusing to bring sophistication to their investing are clinging to the hope that the next 10 years in the stock market will be the same as the last 10 years are depending on hope and luck.

Hope is not a good strategy.

[Letsgodiving]

Well, after a crazy week with all this volatility the S&P 500 ends the week up 0.6%.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Letsgodiving

Well, after a crazy week with all this volatility the S&P 500 ends the week up 0.6%.

Yes crazy close that was a massive short covering rally on the back of the clinical trial announcement from Moderna.

Not good and not encouraging for next week.

[superdog]

What a week.

[scarlet knight]

I use the George Costanza theory on Cramer. Whatever he says, I do the opposite.

[Golden Ellipse]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Yes crazy close that was a massive short covering rally on the back of the clinical trial announcement from Moderna.

Not good and not encouraging for next week.

Fundamentals are fundamentals. Dollar cost averaging at the big lows on the way down. This would be a terrible strategy if the fundamentals had changed...but they haven’t.

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Yes crazy close that was a massive short covering rally on the back of the clinical trial announcement from Moderna.



Not good and not encouraging for next week.

Curious why you feel that it was a bad close? I feel like we held support with the Vix at a decade high.


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[razzz]

I placed a boredom trade today and speculated on the VIX by buying puts with a 20 strike that expire in September.

On a serious note, I bought some more Adyen today. It's my biggest holding at 19%. I believe this thing is going to turn into a monster. If Shopify can maintain a 40x sales multiple then ADYYF is undervalued. I love payment processors that offer an all encompassing product.

I also entered a protective put for my Hexcel position(aerospace composite manufacture), but it didn't get filled. The premiums where quite high. I don't know how much the lack of passenger air travel will hurt airplane manufacturing. 737 Max is still a short-term concern as well. HXL is currently at 18x forward earnings, which I wouldn't consider expensive considering the barriers to entry etc.

What a crazy market!

[austinp]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Can you recommend a mortgage guy? I made one phone call yesterday and they were still at 2.8%. Thanks

NFCU

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[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Golden Ellipse

Fundamentals are fundamentals. Dollar cost averaging at the big lows on the way down. This would be a terrible strategy if the fundamentals had changed...but they haven’t.

Agreed

Originally Posted by RyanO

Curious why you feel that it was a bad close? I feel like we held support with the Vix at a decade high.


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Because there will still be new cases and deaths next week, the bond market is still taking in money in a massive risk off trade. The reason for the close was more technical than fundamental. If we cannot retest the lows then this will not hold and we are still going lower.

I would rather have had the markets down 1500 to flush everything.

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Agreed







Because there will still be new cases and deaths next week, the bond market is still taking in money in a massive risk off trade. The reason for the close was more technical than fundamental. If we cannot retest the lows then this will not hold and we are still going lower.



I would rather have had the markets down 1500 to flush everything.

We haven’t seen these levels of panic and fear since the financial crisis. IMO it’s overdone, and eventually people will realize they don’t stop living their life because of concerns over getting a bad case of the flu. From what I’ve read, China’s situation is already improving unless that has changed?




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[JasoninDenver]

Originally Posted by RyanO

We haven’t seen these levels of panic and fear since the financial crisis. IMO it’s overdone, and eventually people will realize they don’t stop living their life because of concerns over getting a bad case of the flu. From what I’ve read, China’s situation is already improving unless that has changed?




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The only problem with this analysis is that China had to effectively shut down major cities with a population of over 56 million under home sequestration. How do you think our economy would fare if New York and LA were both locked down for a month? Not saying that will happen here, but the uncertainty is what is whipsawing the market now. If it does happen, watch out.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by RyanO

IMO it’s overdone

It is not overdone enough, that is my point

[scarlet knight]

I don’t trust government numbers. China or USA. I also think that the US has slow walked tests to keep the number of cases down.

[beshannon]

Stressed stock market may need to retest its lows before finding its footing in the coronavirus crisis

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/07/stre...us-crisis.html

Watch this level in tech—it could predict the next pullback, trader says
PUBLISHED FRI, MAR 6 202010:34 AM EST

If you are a trader, stay sharp. If you are a longer term investor, don't look.

[Bryant Park]

Originally Posted by SMD

One macro thing I have not yet seen is the impact on state and local public sector pension funds. This is going to have huge knock on effects locally, cutting spending or raising taxes. Think of how underfunded Chicago and Illinois were, for example, when the markets were at all time highs and how they couldn’t fund the shortfalls. Unless there is a miracle v shaped recover before they have to fund the shortfalls, it’s going to be ugly.

To your point...

https://seekingalpha.com/article/408...tneys-analysis

A bit dated but the groundwork for the scenario you suggest. Also local Coronavirus associated costs (EMS, lower worker productivity, increased sanitation costs, etc) will likely have an impact.

[SpeedyTuomas]

Originally Posted by RyanO

We haven’t seen these levels of panic and fear since the financial crisis. IMO it’s overdone, and eventually people will realize they don’t stop living their life because of concerns over getting a bad case of the flu. From what I’ve read, China’s situation is already improving unless that has changed?




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Well not sure about that, I remember some nasty weeks from 2011 and December 2018..

I might be wrong, but am buying small amounts of dividend stocks..mostly European.

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by SpeedyTuomas

Well not sure about that, I remember some nasty weeks from 2011 and December 2018..



I might be wrong, but am buying small amounts of dividend stocks..mostly European.

I’m specifically referring to the VIX, which hit 54 on Friday and hasn’t gotten anywhere near that level since the financial crisis. Even when we were entering bear market territory in December of 18, the VIX wasn’t near that level.


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[maximus1]

With the oil futures being down 25% nearing $30 a barrel we may start to see some panic selling.