Talking Stocks 2.0

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by beshannon

If a lot of things go right . . .

I still think we are higher 12-18 months from now even if we sell off again

Agreed. Some ugly price action there into the close. I was thinking we might close above major resistance but it looks like that level may have been rejected, at least for now. Any thoughts on the close?


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[cornerstore]

Originally Posted by Tha Baron

Well, the news it out. He’s got the same info everyone else does.

He’s smart for leaving so he can exercise his options.

I worked for a public company and it’s not always easy to exercise/sell when you’d like due to blackout dates etc. also, the appearance of hindsight that you “should have known something” even though you didn’t is tricky.

All this antiviral and vaccine stuff just wreaks of bullshit. Look at GILD... they are back to mid 70s after their two pump and dump news cycles

As was suspected yesterday Moderna appears to have been overly optimistic at best with the news yesterday. How serendipitous for option holders, This is penny stock juicing tactics and the type of thing that destroys overall market confidence.

“On Monday, a trifecta of good news powered the Dow and S&P 500 Index to their best day in over a month. Yet stocks took a leg lower on Tuesday after a report late in the trading day questioned the significance of the data Moderna (MRNA provided.”

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by RyanO

Agreed. Some ugly price action there into the close. I was thinking we might close above major resistance but it looks like that level may have been rejected, at least for now. Any thoughts on the close?


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Not really, profit taking and getting whipsawed by news.

Futures up +300 this morning.

[Uggi]

Involuntarily, I've been really inactive for the last 7 days or so - bought nothing, taken some profit here and there, nothing major.
Hard (for me) to find a move in this sideways market. I now have about 30% cash.
Anyone else experiencing the same or am I just missing all the moves?

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Uggi

Involuntarily, I've been really inactive for the last 7 days or so - bought nothing, taken some profit here and there, nothing major.
Hard (for me) to find a move in this sideways market. I now have about 30% cash.
Anyone else experiencing the same or am I just missing all the moves?

I have cash, nothing wrong with being patient.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/19/jim-...ey-hurdle.html

Range bound trading and if we break up it could be big.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by Uggi

Involuntarily, I've been really inactive for the last 7 days or so - bought nothing, taken some profit here and there, nothing major.
Hard (for me) to find a move in this sideways market. I now have about 30% cash.
Anyone else experiencing the same or am I just missing all the moves?

We're sitting on 10% cash. If I sense a heavy downward move, we can always sell out of some positions to get back to cash. We're not fighting the tape at this point.

We've been strengthening positions (e.g. MSFT) and have invested in a few smaller but up and coming cloud companies like FSLY and DDOG, as their products are the wave of the very near future.

Because of uncertainties in travel and retail, I've taken profits there and will not reenter until we know more, save for DIS and NKE. Still in the industrials like HON and RTX, as well as financials, to include V, C, and JPM.

Sitting on 23 positions right now and I'm pretty content on where we are; not looking to add more positions but always watching (a bit too closely if you ask my wife).

Probably won't touch the 10% we have left until we are very certain we are free and clear (vaccine verified) or obviously a big crash occurs.

[beshannon]

Halliburton slashes dividend by 75% to $0.045

https://seekingalpha.com/news/357622...nd-75-to-0_045

If you are in the energy space, watch your positions. A cut could actually make the stock go up but it you bought because of the dividend or need the dividend income you may be surprised

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I have cash, nothing wrong with being patient.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/19/jim-...ey-hurdle.html

Range bound trading and if we break up it could be big.

"If the index does breach that level, Boroden has price targets of 3,720 and possibly 4,136 on her radar, Cramer continued."

WOW! That would be astonishing.

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

We're sitting on 10% cash. If I sense a heavy downward move, we can always sell out of some positions to get back to cash. We're not fighting the tape at this point.

We've been strengthening positions (e.g. MSFT) and have invested in a few smaller but up and coming cloud companies like FSLY and DDOG, as their products are the wave of the very near future.

Because of uncertainties in travel and retail, I've taken profits there and will not reenter until we know more, save for DIS and NKE. Still in the industrials like HON and RTX, as well as financials, to include V, C, and JPM.

Sitting on 23 positions right now and I'm pretty content on where we are; not looking to add more positions but always watching (a bit too closely if you ask my wife).

Probably won't touch the 10% we have left until we are very certain we are free and clear (vaccine verified) or obviously a big crash occurs.

I'm eyeing up the big travel companies now. Not sure if you have them in the US but TUI are a giant in Europe with strong financials and they will weather this storm, probably gobbling up some the weaker rivals along the way. It would be a long investment though that's for sure (2+ years).

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Uggi

"If the index does breach that level, Boroden has price targets of 3,720 and possibly 4,136 on her radar, Cramer continued."

WOW! That would be astonishing.

Yes it would and I am not sure I agree with it at all. Just more info to base decisions on.

That is why I have core holdings and I have trading positions.

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Yes it would and I am not sure I agree with it at all. Just more info to base decisions on.

That is why I have core holdings and I have trading positions.

Agreed. And I'm learning every day.
You do have to wonder how much self-interest some of these pundits have in making their predictions.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Uggi

Agreed. And I'm learning every day.
You do have to wonder how much self-interest some of these pundits have in making their predictions.

[JParm]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/20/inve...gist-says.html

From Cramer's optimism to this.

I'm in the boat of riding the wave, until we see a sudden march towards a bottom. Take a slight loss to go cash heavy vs. waiting on the sidelines and missing the upward momentum we seem to have.

Again, I'm pretty active and can keep a pulse. For others that are fire and forget, my strategy might not be the best for you.

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by Uggi

Agreed. And I'm learning every day.
You do have to wonder how much self-interest some of these pundits have in making their predictions.

Still learning here as well.

Definitely think the price action around this level is significant if we can move above it. That's what I was watching yesterday, and was disappointed to see us bounce off of it, but Brian was right...

I think we definitely have to take what these pundits say with a grain of salt, and that goes for the perma bears too.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by RyanO

Still learning here as well.

Definitely think the price action around this level is significant if we can move above it. That's what I was watching yesterday, and was disappointed to see us bounce off of it, but Brian was right...

I think we definitely have to take what these pundits say with a grain of salt, and that goes for the perma bears too.

Exactly, nothing wrong with lots of info, a person needs to sift through to make their own decisions.

I raised more cash this morning on the strength of this up move by selling several small trading positions.

I am content to keep more cash at this point as my core holdings do most of the heavy lifting

[logo]

Volume seems a little low today but bought HD on the dip. Contemplating ABBV but it seems to be doing a bit of consolidation action right now and some parts of its chart have me thinking we see a bit of a dip here soon, but not convinced yet. ULTA is intriguing. Good value proposition long term at its current share price, but not convinced it will rise any great amount anytime soon. Hotels/Airlines still making gains but too risky at their current price IMO. Still eyeing MSFT, AXP and NKE as well.... missed them on the pull backs last week. And lastly NET - what a strange stock today, surprised this ones not higher. Anyways those are my thoughts of the day. Criticisms, thoughts and suggestions welcome.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by logo

Volume seems a little low today but bought HD on the dip. Contemplating ABBV but it seems to be doing a bit of consolidation action right now and some parts of its chart have me thinking we see a bit of a dip here soon, but not convinced yet. ULTA is intriguing. Good value proposition long term at its current share price, but not convinced it will rise any great amount anytime soon. Hotels/Airlines still making gains but too risky at their current price IMO. Still eyeing MSFT, AXP and NKE as well.... missed them on the pull backs last week. And lastly NET - what a strange stock today, surprised this ones not higher. Anyways those are my thoughts of the day. Criticisms, thoughts and suggestions welcome.

My long term holds include HD,MSFT and ABBV

I am not a fan of ULTA seems like a fad stock and I wonder about their ability to sell without sampling makeup?

I wonder too about AXP and their tie in to Travel and Leisure and the stock is too high for me at this point

[logo]

Originally Posted by beshannon

My long term holds include HD,MSFT and ABBV

I am not a fan of ULTA seems like a fad stock and I wonder about their ability to sell without sampling makeup?

I wonder too about AXP and their tie in to Travel and Leisure and the stock is too high for me at this point

I agree with you about ULTA. However, I do think women will want to get their makeup one way or the other and suspect repeat business of the same tried/tested/true products may be a good portion of sales, meaning online or curbside pickup. Either way I'll probably wait to decide on this one until after earnings.

I'm relatively new to chart technicals, but for ABBV it looks like there may be a dip starting over yesterday and today. Will follow closely as I'd love to add closer to 85-88 or so.

[JParm]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/20/sena...ove-lower.html

Interesting time to do this. Let's cause more undo panic while in the middle of a pandemic.

Caused a bit of a dip in BABA, but nothing extraordinary. Still long in BABA and looking forward to earnings Friday.

[gnuyork]

Well I have fallen prey to this...and bought at the wrong time... now I am about $16K poorer...not sure if I should still hold and see if it climbs back up or cut my losses... lesson learned on this one:

https://www.benzinga.com/general/bio...lative-at-the-

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by gnuyork

Well I have fallen prey to this...and bought at the wrong time... now I am about $16K poorer...not sure if I should still hold and see if it climbs back it or cut my losses... lesson learned on this one:

https://www.benzinga.com/general/bio...lative-at-the-

Sorry to hear. I thought you were stopped out at 6.50?

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by RyanO

Sorry to hear. I thought you were stopped out at 6.50?

I bought again on Monday to try to make up for losses as it appeared to be going up again. Given the news, I thought it would stay positive. But this article explains a lot.

[beshannon]

Tiny investors historically bullish

https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/st...61444071333888

Watch for breaks in technicals

[RyanO]

Don't quite understand her tweet Brian. Is she saying that the rally is likely to fade?

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by RyanO

Don't quite understand her tweet Brian. Is she saying that the rally is likely to fade?

Ah sorry, apologies.

The small trader is typically wrong most of the time, they buy at tops felling good and they sell at bottoms when they have had enough.

The option buying she is describing suggests that small traders are as bullish as they were back on February 14th. Does this mean we go back down? Not necessarily but it needs to be watched as I believe the Top of the trading range is ~2950 on the S&P and we need better news to move much higher, much has already been priced in.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by gnuyork

Well I have fallen prey to this...and bought at the wrong time... now I am about $16K poorer...not sure if I should still hold and see if it climbs back up or cut my losses... lesson learned on this one:

https://www.benzinga.com/general/bio...lative-at-the-

Originally Posted by RyanO

Sorry to hear. I thought you were stopped out at 6.50?

Originally Posted by gnuyork

I bought again on Monday to try to make up for losses as it appeared to be going up again. Given the news, I thought it would stay positive. But this article explains a lot.

It’s not uncommon to see small-cap biotech stocks act like this on the slightest bit of promising news regarding a new drug.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sorre...155253179.html

If you believe in the story and have done your homework then stay in it.

This is what separates investing from speculating. If you are hoping it goes higher so you can sell it to someone else . . .

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Ah sorry, apologies.

The small trader is typically wrong most of the time, they buy at tops felling good and they sell at bottoms when they have had enough.

The option buying she is describing suggests that small traders are as bullish as they were back on February 14th. Does this mean we go back down? Not necessarily but it needs to be watched as I believe the Top of the trading range is ~2950 on the S&P and we need better news to move much higher, much has already been priced in.

That makes perfect sense, appreciate your explanation.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by gnuyork

Well I have fallen prey to this...and bought at the wrong time... now I am about $16K poorer...not sure if I should still hold and see if it climbs back up or cut my losses... lesson learned on this one:

https://www.benzinga.com/general/bio...lative-at-the-

Originally Posted by beshannon

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sorre...155253179.html

If you believe in the story and have done your homework then stay in it.

This is what separates investing from speculating. If you are hoping it goes higher so you can sell it to someone else . . .

HEAVY speculation here. If you have the funds to wait it out, I wouldn't necessarily cut it. However, if you need the money / would like to invest elsewhere, I would cut my losses.

[kieselguhr]

I am not sure what to make of it but all my airline positions are getting called away from me come Friday. AAL, DAL, LUV, everything in the money. Even with all the negative news. I’m not complaining, just puzzled.

[LordNewport]

Originally Posted by kieselguhr

I am not sure what to make of it but all my airline positions are getting called away from me come Friday. AAL, DAL, LUV, everything in the money. Even with all the negative news. I’m not complaining, just puzzled.

Bottom fishing combined with a reassessment that they are not dead yet.

The long term investment problem with the airlines is their business model that has last minute high margin tickets bought by business travelers subsidizing leisure travel. Thanks to the chinese wuhan virus, businesses have learned they dont need all that expensive last minute travel and have invested in the tech infrastructure to work from home/tele/video conferencing.

[bryan13]

Why aren’t the banks holding up better? The federal reserve will save the banks at any means necessary. Money is pouring into tech which makes sense, but it was already overvalued before virus. The banks provide decent dividends (if no cuts coming), and they have the fed to infinitely support them. Unlike 2008, banks are in a pretty good place all things considered.