Talking Stocks 2.0

[logo]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

It looks like (in the minds of some of the public and the market), the whole Covid-19 thingy is over.

‘Stay at home” stocks are old news and getting cold. The money is going after values in travel and other stocks held back by the lockdown.

I think it is transient. When the second quarter earnings come out for these consumer stocks, reality will set in. Q1 only had one month moderately impacted by COVID, whereas April is a total write off, and May/June are not normal months. Meanwhile the “stay at home” stocks and tech docs that are continuing to bring in earnings will continue to climb. We are a tech based society, and the idea of “stay at home” is a bit of a misnomer - it’s really about societal growth and convenience, that just happened to be brought to the spotlight by staying at home during covid (better internet and gadgets, health, global connectivity, online shopping, alternative food and energy sources, transportation, remote work, and the comforts of your own home etc). So these should continue to perform in my opinion. That’s not to say that people will never travel or engage in leisure, that’s crazy - just that the leisure/travel sector is not what will drive the future economy forward, and so for me are not ideal long term investments.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by logo

Not too pleased about today, but, interesting to see all the consumer-driven stocks start out +10% and drift towards neutral or red. If tech falls, it all falls.

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

A lot of rotation out of tech / stay-at-home stocks.

Is it healthy? I don't know necessarily think so, as seeing big tech go down so big like this while cyclicals / consumer discretionary / banks go up can't be a good sign for the market as a whole.

Originally Posted by RyanO

Not liking it either. Was hoping for some follow through above the 200 day today... Guess not.

Originally Posted by LordNewport

This is a combination of rotation out of techs which were a safe haven, accelerated downward by the hedge-funds/traders to pick up all those stop-loss shares before the big rally on vaccine news. Good time to be buying select tech today.

Rotation out of tech to be sure, not worried about it yet, some profit taking is natural and healthy.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/357791...conomy-revs-up

I would prefer to see a slower burn up than another run like yesterday

[LordNewport]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

It looks like (in the minds of some of the public and the market), the whole Covid-19 thingy is over.

‘Stay at home” stocks are old news and getting cold. The money is going after values in travel and other stocks held back by the lockdown.

The problem for travel stocks that rely in the very profitable business traveler is that business has learned it can "do business" without all that expensive last minute travel that represents a huge part of the travel industries actual profits every year.

Leisure travel has a very elastic demand curve...business travel has been much more inelastic with regards to air travel and hotel rooms. I think the wuhan flu has changed that.

[JParm]

Been an interesting day so far. Pretty large dip this morning and somewhat of a recovery here, which is good to see (the sky has not fallen!). On the contrary to Fleetlord's post here - big tech still lives.

Will see how today ends up, but hopefully we can finish strong after the lunch hour.

[yoast]

With Regards to tech, I'm looking into getting some ARKK, but will wait for the price to come down a bit, ideally around 50 or so. I think it has great potential going forward.

[LordNewport]

Originally Posted by yoast

With Regards to tech, I'm looking into getting some ARKK, but will wait for the price to come down a bit, ideally around 50 or so. I think it has great potential going forward.

$61.20 now... dont hold your breath.

[LA-RealEstateAgent]

It's also important to differentiate between long term buys and short term buys.

Short Term Apple is currently at $315 and will go up a few % in the upcoming week.

Long term, I truly believe Boeing will bounce back big. I purchased it at $113 and got tempted to sell when it rose to the $140 mark but decided to keep it for a few months and see how this rides out.

I also really like Las Vegas Sands

[logo]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Been an interesting day so far. Pretty large dip this morning and somewhat of a recovery here, which is good to see (the sky has not fallen!). On the contrary to Fleetlord's post here - big tech still lives.

Will see how today ends up, but hopefully we can finish strong after the lunch hour.

Interesting recovery for NET and FSLY today so far for sure. I'd like to add FSLY to my cloud portfolio as well, but given it rose so quick I'm not sure where it's current support level is, and figure it'll drift towards wherever that is before making a steady gain. Probably should have bought the big dip earlier today, but will keep an eye the next few days and see where it goes. NET is hovering in the 27-29 range, building support since earnings it seems.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by logo

Interesting recovery for NET and FSLY today so far for sure. I'd like to add FSLY to my cloud portfolio as well, but given it rose so quick I'm not sure where it's current support level is, and figure it'll drift towards wherever that is before making a steady gain. Probably should have bought the big dip earlier today, but will keep an eye the next few days and see where it goes. NET is hovering in the 27-29 range, building support since earnings it seems.

I think anything under $40 for FSLY is great. Remember that an additional 6M shares was introduced late last week at $41.50 to institutions, and it has closed already. So, there is high demand there.

Abdiel Capital investing $24M itself. This is a fund that typically keeps things small (<10 holdings, from what I've read) and has had great returns, so they seem to know what they're doing.

https://whalewisdomalpha.com/abdiel-...nt-avg-return/

There might (most likely will) be bumps along the way, but again, under $40 here is a winner in my opinion.

Strong red-to-green move by FSLY today so far.

[Kowaco]

I’ve done very well with DIG


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[LordNewport]

Watching the market on days like this reminds me of watching a cat being teased with a laser pointer.

The hedge funds and market makers just pressed the tech/growth stocks down and took shares from all those weak holders /traders by selling into all those profit protecting stop loss orders while the "public' was piling into the beaten down value sector. Everyone who sold quality tech stocks today will be buying them back again at higher prices within weeks. It was like taking stock from babies in anticipation of the next leg up in the tech sector. Look at the "bounce" and its net effect.

[beshannon]

S&P now above 2950, need to watch 3150 for signs of a real top. 200 MA and momentum are higher indicating this move could continue.

https://www.thestreet.com/markets/5-...hursday-052820

COST earnings today, BA restarting production, AA in massive debt trouble

I will be looking for some profit taking opportunities and possibly some rotation into some lagging stocks

[JParm]

Took profit in ALXN and shifted a bit more into cyclicals today.

Opened up a position in BUD as well, as I think now it has room to run a bit.

[gnuyork]

Yep took a few in profits this morning as well, still holding my SRNE... I'm hoping it will bounce back and I can recoup my losses... I see there are several law firms reaching out regarding the recent huge losses. I may contact for details...

[Uggi]

Profit taking for me too.
It's nice to lock in profits but I'm sat on a lot of cash now and I can't see much to buy at these prices.
Time for some patient watching.

[RyanO]

Does anyone else think its pretty bullish is we continue to stay above, and build over the 200 day?

I know a lot of people hate this rally, and I have to wonder if that will only keep it churning higher as we reopen.

Even I think a pullback would be good, but maybe the pullback we had a few weeks ago was it for the short term?

Any thoughts?

Part of me wants to book some profits here too, but me selling is the ultimate buy signal

[logo]

Originally Posted by RyanO

Does anyone else think its pretty bullish is we continue to stay above, and build over the 200 day?

I know a lot of people hate this rally, and I have to wonder if that will only keep it churning higher as we reopen.

Even I think a pullback would be good, but maybe the pullback we had a few weeks ago was it for the short term?

Any thoughts?

Part of me wants to book some profits here too, but me selling is the ultimate buy signal

I think there will be sector-specific pullbacks, and Q2 will probably be a big driver of that. For instance, I can find no logical reason why stocks like NKE are back at their previous highs given stores, sports, everything was shut down on them for a while - they need people playing team sports, people out at gyms, people watching sports, people going to malls to generate a large part of their revenues. I can also find no reason why cruiselines were rising so much when no ship will sail for quite some time and these businesses are bleeding cash. Same for AXP/V/MA - my credit card bills are at an all time low the past few months.

I get the market is future looking, but I think it's looked a bit too far to soon on some things - if the market was future looking to the extreme, there should have been no drop at all in March. I think a lot of investors have the tendency to look at things like RCL and go "hey, this was at 120 previously, I could double my money by investing today at 55!" when in reality that 120 is driven off the revenue they were making pre-pandemic. How long it takes to get back there is difficult to say - i don't doubt people will travel again, but there is significant downside risk during the waiting period IMO.

[bryan13]

Originally Posted by logo

I think there will be sector-specific pullbacks, and Q2 will probably be a big driver of that. For instance, I can find no logical reason why stocks like NKE are back at their previous highs given stores, sports, everything was shut down on them for a while - they need people playing team sports, people out at gyms, people watching sports, people going to malls to generate a large part of their revenues. I can also find no reason why cruiselines were rising so much when no ship will sail for quite some time and these businesses are bleeding cash. Same for AXP/V/MA - my credit card bills are at an all time low the past few months.

I get the market is future looking, but I think it's looked a bit too far to soon on some things - if the market was future looking to the extreme, there should have been no drop at all in March. I think a lot of investors have the tendency to look at things like RCL and go "hey, this was at 120 previously, I could double my money by investing today at 55!" when in reality that 120 is driven off the revenue they were making pre-pandemic. How long it takes to get back there is difficult to say - i don't doubt people will travel again, but there is significant downside risk during the waiting period IMO.

I 100% agree. Just like Nike is LULU, which is at its ATH while all of their stores have been closed for 2 months. They’re starting to reopen and are at all time highs. Makes no sense. I was looking to get into V, but can’t bring myself to do it. The unemployment numbers alone are going to have to put a hurting on all the credit cards, many people will be spending much less until the jobs come back, which for many sectors is going to take a long time, and plenty will never return.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by bryan13

I 100% agree. Just like Nike is LULU, which is at its ATH while all of their stores have been closed for 2 months. They’re starting to reopen and are at all time highs. Makes no sense. I was looking to get into V, but can’t bring myself to do it. The unemployment numbers alone are going to have to put a hurting on all the credit cards, many people will be spending much less until the jobs come back, which for many sectors is going to take a long time, and plenty will never return.

I don't know that I necessarily agree.

The extra $600 of unemployment has been a boon for many (though it does go away in July), and now we're seeing people not wanting to go back to work because of the additional income. That extra money is being spent via credit cards on online shopping, which Nike is strong in.

Yes, there are a lot unemployed - but for those that are still employed, they've been sitting back ready to spend. For example, stores just opened up in Las Vegas recently, and I have friends spending an exorbitant amount of money shopping for the first time in a long while.

Long story short, I think companies like V and MA continue to go up from here.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Uggi

Profit taking for me too.
It's nice to lock in profits but I'm sat on a lot of cash now and I can't see much to buy at these prices.
Time for some patient watching.

Agreed

Originally Posted by RyanO

Does anyone else think its pretty bullish is we continue to stay above, and build over the 200 day?

I know a lot of people hate this rally, and I have to wonder if that will only keep it churning higher as we reopen.

Even I think a pullback would be good, but maybe the pullback we had a few weeks ago was it for the short term?

Any thoughts?

Part of me wants to book some profits here too, but me selling is the ultimate buy signal

Yes, everyone hates this rally, meanwhile there is over 1 trillion in money market accounts and there is no alternative to stocks with rates this low for income investors.

I do think that taking some profits would be prudent and that is what I have been doing.

[LA-RealEstateAgent]

Originally Posted by LordNewport

Watching the market on days like this reminds me of watching a cat being teased with a laser pointer.

The hedge funds and market makers just pressed the tech/growth stocks down and took shares from all those weak holders /traders by selling into all those profit protecting stop loss orders while the "public' was piling into the beaten down value sector. Everyone who sold quality tech stocks today will be buying them back again at higher prices within weeks. It was like taking stock from babies in anticipation of the next leg up in the tech sector. Look at the "bounce" and its net effect.

Well said

[supernova]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Yes, there are a lot unemployed - but for those that are still employed, they've been sitting back ready to spend. For example, stores just opened up in Las Vegas recently, and I have friends spending an exorbitant amount of money shopping for the first time in a long while.

Long story short, I think companies like V and MA continue to go up from here.

I agree, I've had 3 cancelled holidays refunded, working from home so saving on commute and food costs.

I'm literally dying to get out to blow my saved monies in department stores, restaurants etc. And will definitely be using cards rather than cash!

[RyanO]

Appreciate all of the input fellas.

[RyanO]

And FWIW, you can count me as another who can't wait to get out and spend some money on dining, travel, shopping.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by RyanO

Appreciate all of the input fellas.

Who would have thought that my favorite thread on a watch forum would be about stocks?

Prior to this, it was sharing vacation photos on the open discussion forum...oh well, gotta find something to post about! Still love Rolex, but until something new comes along (or I get that call for a 6-digit pepsi), I'll be happy living in this thread.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by RyanO

Appreciate all of the input fellas.

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Who would have thought that my favorite thread on a watch forum would be about stocks?

Good info being shared here in a good way.

I too am waiting to spend

[kearez]

Changing my view to cautious now, a lot more involuntary separations. No longer customer service jobs, a lot more white collar management at Fortune 500 companies. I think we will see another big dip July/August.

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Who would have thought that my favorite thread on a watch forum would be about stocks?

Prior to this, it was sharing vacation photos on the open discussion forum...oh well, gotta find something to post about! Still love Rolex, but until something new comes along (or I get that call for a 6-digit pepsi), I'll be happy living in this thread.

Right? Go figure. Wouldn't mind getting a Pepsi myself - though a vaccine is likely to come before that happens!

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by kearez

Changing my view to cautious now, a lot more involuntary separations. No longer customer service jobs, a lot more white collar management at Fortune 500 companies. I think we will see another big dip July/August.

I have been cautious since the S&P kept bumping up against 2950 and I may sell more at 3150. Keeping stops tight as it is right now.

Will we have some downside, yes. I believe it will come when companies report 3rd and 4th quarter earnings and that the effects will be more company specific than anything.

The economy will do better, people will go back to work. If anything this pause cooled off the economy which can help prolong the expansionary cycle.

Balance sheets, solid business models and being in a business that will benefit from activity ramping up. Industrials, Cyclicals, Tech, Financials . . . that is where my focus is.

[logo]

Originally Posted by RyanO

And FWIW, you can count me as another who can't wait to get out and spend some money on dining, travel, shopping.

Me too; however, I'm skeptical that our habits on TRF reflect greater society. Brings up an interesting question of who creates more total revenue: the upper 1% of earners vs the 99% of the population. Probably depends on the company. Maybe LVMH will have a good Q2.

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Who would have thought that my favorite thread on a watch forum would be about stocks?

Prior to this, it was sharing vacation photos on the open discussion forum...oh well, gotta find something to post about! Still love Rolex, but until something new comes along (or I get that call for a 6-digit pepsi), I'll be happy living in this thread.

Very nice, the jubilee won't disappoint (as a DJ owner). I'm more of a one watch man (or small, focused collection man), but planning to to make an addition of either a gold submariner or AP RO in the next 2-3 yrs for a special occasion. Maybe my stock dabbling will help get me there.