Has recession in US postponed next purchase?

[Randy]

Hello, Just wondering if US economy has postponed your next Rolex watch?

[frostie]

I think that if you postpone a purchase now you are going to regret it more cause there might be an upcoming price increase from rolex because of the weakening dollar.

[nightshade]

depends on you financial situation. as they say, the rich gets richer and the poor gets poorer! when the economy is bad, the rich takes advantage of the situation to get richer!! so i think buying rolexes will be a non issue or an advantage for the well to do. It's like shares. buy low, sell high.

[frostie]

People from US can sell their rolex watches in Europe at really high prices. Here's an example the MSRP in the US for a GMT II C is 5950 $ and in Europe the price is 8721$.

[Peter Messmore]

Hey Randy,Not for me.I was planning on buying one any way and I am thinking the dealers will be more willing to give deals because less people are spending.So if you can afford it,now is probably a good time,Peter

[CPTL]

Are we in a recession?

It's funny reading news coverage on the economy, whether or not we're in a correction or a recession, whether it will last six months or three years. Reminds me of 2004 when the powers that be refused to recognize that resistance in Iraq amounted to an insurgency. Laughable.

[seantk]

Is the US in a recession?

I am not wealthy and I budgeted my 1st Rolex purchase like many others do. I bought my 1st Rolex last month and it was a planned purchase and I did not let outside factors influence me. Although I did not buy it as an investment, it is holding it's value better than my investment portfolio is right now

Sean

[CPTL]

Originally Posted by seantk

Although I did not buy it as an investment, it is holding it's value better than my investment portfolio is right now.

That's hilarious. Being in Iraq in 2007, I had nothing to spend money on the whole year. So, I bought 2 Rolexes, and the rest of my income went into stocks, bonds, and funds of various sorts.

The watches are beating the rest of the portfolio by a mile!

[SPACE-DWELLER]

Originally Posted by frostie

People from US can sell their rolex watches in Europe at really high prices. Here's an example the MSRP in the US for a GMT II C is 5950 $ and in Europe the price is 8721$.

Quite true! And seen from the other site, if I bought a Rolex in the States now, the price difference could pay my plane ticket, PLUS give some extra money on top of that!

[rummycoke]

Short every tech stocks, pile up utiliites and oil, and of course buy as many Rolex you can because it is gonna be rough year.

[crimscrem]

Originally Posted by SPACE-DWELLER

Quite true! And seen from the other site, if I bought a Rolex in the States now, the price difference could pay my plane ticket, PLUS give some extra money on top of that!

If I were European, I would vacation to the states. The reverse was much harder to do. Our vacation to London and Paris was $$$$$. We couldn't buy anything as it was twice as expensive there as it was here.

[frostie]

Originally Posted by crimscrem

If I were European, I would vacation to the states. The reverse was much harder to do. Our vacation to London and Paris was $$$$$. We couldn't buy anything as it was twice as expensive there as it was here.

Having a strong currency has it's positive and negative aspects for sure.

[buz-lh]

I think based on my Q4 returns on investments that my watch is doing as well or better. Overall, 2007 was good but I wish it would have ended in September.

[Prince]

No, but it has reinforced my recommendation to my wife to postpone annuitizing a portion of a 403B account that she holds until the market returns to some semblance of sanity!

[scottschoe]

What recession?

The current state of the economy creates a great opportunity to buy.

[astcell]

I work for the government, I am recession-proof.

[vman]

Recession? Sorry, I don't buy it. Our economy is still doing well. We have a 14 trillion economy and the "crashing" housing market represents only a small drop in the bucket. If you think that you're in a recession, then you will end up there. I am an optimist. I am buying my first Rolex this year :)

[hienpham04]

Recession is the opportunity for investment. Rolex is always a safe heaven investment, since the demand is high and the price increase dramatically over the years. I remember buying my attorney a SS Datejust back in 2003 for $3800, which is now cost at $5700. With the recent gold increase, the gold Rolex is a must for all investors. I looked at Rolex as a watch to wear for a few years, and turn around sell it for more :) BUY IT NOW ~Hien

[BigHat]

Economists can debate the technical details of the current situation and if it is or will be a recession. That said, not happy about seeing a 10% drop in my portfolio value in 17 days this year.
That certainly helps keep me from impulse buying. I'm still reeling from big 4th quarter spending binge on watches too. The combo of those two things have me "keeping my powder dry" for while.
I hate the hassles of flipping so really going to wait until I'm sure about wanting it long term before I buy more.
Nothing out there I can't live without anyway. I might make it until July.


Edit: By the way, I see no evidence that the current climate has reduced market demand for Rolex watches or their prices. Therefore, I see nothing to "take advantage if" right now. If I was looking to capitalize on a market rebound, I think only think of about a thousand things I buy before a watch in order to do so.

[Trainer]

A lot of good advice in these replies.
I agree with those who state that a watch is a poor investment. The return on investment is extrmely poor when viewed against money markets, investment funds, etc.
Of course you can't wear your Vanguard Fund.

On the flip side (no pun intended): My local Ad recently informed me that they had a very dissapointing Holiday season (for me it's still Christmas) and appear to be willing to discount some Rolexes more than usual.
This would be a great oportunity to buy at a reduced rate that which I would buy anyway at the normal discount rate, however, this greater than normal discount applies only to what is already in their case. And naturally, what I want isn't in their case.

Tempus Fugit,
Trainer

[llamaofdoom]

I was carrying a business license for my watch and gold dealings during the last recession, so I'll share my experiences...

Most of what you see going for bargain prices during a recession is common stuff - standard modern stuff like Presidents, Datejusts, Subs, etc. Those are the things that people who say "man, I really want a Rolex" (most of the Rolex watch buying public) tend to go for when they buy...and then they end up strapped for cash and have to give their watches away for very little $.

Rare and vintage pieces didn't start coming out of the woodwork..they remained rare and hard to find...because a lot of them were owned by serious collectors and speculators. I am a watch speculator, and well-funded, so I don't have to sell just because the economy is going to hell - and if I did sell, I'd work with one of my friends that sells overseas, and he'd move the watch to someone in another country who could give a good price for it.

I think we're starting to see similar things now.

Example: 116520s are soft in the US right now...and have been softening IMHO in parallel to the overall economic conditions in the States. 16520s and 16528s, however, have been moving right on up.

Why? Pretty simple - collectors and speculators (not "flippers", but serious speculators) will pursue that which is becoming more rare, and will keep bidding prices up over time as fewer and fewer decent, collectible examples enter the market. Regular people (i.e. folks that won't generally drop whatever it takes to get the "special watch" for their collections) and flippers gravitate more toward current models that are still readily available - and they also tend to have more "immediate cash" needs.

Net: If it's currently being produced, you'll probably have a good chance of getting a bargain new Rolex from an AD (assuming no price increase) and a real bargain on a used one from a pawn shop (because of increased loan defaults) or a distressed seller. I doubt we'll see vintage collectible models become any more reasonable.

[watchlady]

What recession? I think it really depends where you are on the economic chain how if effects you. I think though I could be wrong that most Rolex fans are on the upper part of the bell curve.

[Floridadogg]

I'm not going to participate in a recession if it occurs. Time will tell if it does.

[unclesallie]

Originally Posted by frostie

People from US can sell their rolex watches in Europe at really high prices. Here's an example the MSRP in the US for a GMT II C is 5950 $ and in Europe the price is 8721$.

wow! where can i sell my GMTII Ceramic?? I mean that is a SERIOUS price jump.
best, dan

[unclesallie]

Originally Posted by frostie

People from US can sell their rolex watches in Europe at really high prices. Here's an example the MSRP in the US for a GMT II C is 5950 $ and in Europe the price is 8721$.

Originally Posted by llamaofdoom

I was carrying a business license for my watch and gold dealings during the last recession, so I'll share my experiences...

Most of what you see going for bargain prices during a recession is common stuff - standard modern stuff like Presidents, Datejusts, Subs, etc. Those are the things that people who say "man, I really want a Rolex" (most of the Rolex watch buying public) tend to go for when they buy...and then they end up strapped for cash and have to give their watches away for very little $.

Rare and vintage pieces didn't start coming out of the woodwork..they remained rare and hard to find...because a lot of them were owned by serious collectors and speculators. I am a watch speculator, and well-funded, so I don't have to sell just because the economy is going to hell - and if I did sell, I'd work with one of my friends that sells overseas, and he'd move the watch to someone in another country who could give a good price for it.

I think we're starting to see similar things now.

Example: 116520s are soft in the US right now...and have been softening IMHO in parallel to the overall economic conditions in the States. 16520s and 16528s, however, have been moving right on up.

Why? Pretty simple - collectors and speculators (not "flippers", but serious speculators) will pursue that which is becoming more rare, and will keep bidding prices up over time as fewer and fewer decent, collectible examples enter the market. Regular people (i.e. folks that won't generally drop whatever it takes to get the "special watch" for their collections) and flippers gravitate more toward current models that are still readily available - and they also tend to have more "immediate cash" needs.

Net: If it's currently being produced, you'll probably have a good chance of getting a bargain new Rolex from an AD (assuming no price increase) and a real bargain on a used one from a pawn shop (because of increased loan defaults) or a distressed seller. I doubt we'll see vintage collectible models become any more reasonable.

excellent analysis, and probably accurate.
best,dan

[bran]

Recession? That is a media thing. There is no recession. Real Estate market is not good in some areas. And as for a real estate mortagage problem that is only affecting 4% to 6% of homeowners and those are the ones who bought way to much house than their incomes would allow.

I don;t know about other's inestments, but mine made more on a percentage basis last year than 2005 and 2006 combined.

If the media is not careful they will talk us into a recession!

[walds11]

As Bran said, Recession? Most of it is psychological and media driven...I am long on my investments, real estate, etc, so I don't worry about it too much. I am not crazy about inflation though. Paying more for goods and services is not fun.

[CoopJr]

But not because of any possible recession. There is going to be a layoff at my company at the end of Feb so I am sitting tight until then. I have all the $$ I need now but can't justify it until I know my head isn't on the chopping block

[chevycorvette]

even the market hit to the ground. nothing gonna hurt me.

[sphereman]

are we in a recession? i believe so strongly.. we might not be in a recession yet but we are heading that way.. sad but true..

like another poster said above, for new and currentlyl-being-produced rolexes, you might get a bargain price from your AD.
for vintages, no recession could hurt them so bad. might be a just a little bit.