Will vintage Rolex hype stop?

[pl2se]

I know watch collecting isn't about money. But I would like to admit that it's of some importance. I have spent more than a health amount of money on watches. And I'm not a rich guy so I definitely need to take such rings as value into consideration. As an example, the 1675 I own has increased rather much last years. It's nearly mint. Hands and dials show some heavy patina but seams original as well as the bezel. At the moment it's rather appreciated by the market. However, what's your feeling about that? Do you think the vintage trend will keep on? Or will we see a drop in less than perfect examples? I know you can't predict the future but I'm sure you guys can make an educated guess!

BR
Peter

[springer]

You are correct about the future. My gut feeling is that if your watch has appreciated substantially, why not sell it and not fret about the future. Take the money and run.

There have been many, many threads here on the forum lately about value, trends etc. It's to the point now that it is getting very redundant.

My best advice is buy what you like and enjoy it; but if you bought a watch as an investment and it has increased substantially in value, sell it now and move on to something else.

[rootbeer7]

I think if things soften the secondary pieces that fly on the back of the real top watches will drop. I buy things I love and if I can sell that on and break even or make a few pounds then so much the better

[FTX I]

The problem with the future is that it only happens afterwards, but I think you're safe with a nice 1675.

[roh123]

As prices move up buyers get more picky. I wouldn't sit on average examples of non-rare references if I couldn't live with losing some money. That said I don't think the risk to lose a lot of money is huge. I just wouldn't expect neverending value increase from these.

As long as new Rolexes cost as they do I have no problem with minty 40 year old GMTs/Submariners costing about the same as new ones.

[MonBK]

Everything goes up except boats.

[JP Chestnut]

Originally Posted by MonBK

Everything goes up except boats.

And bubblebacks. And muscle cars in the 1980s.

[joli160]

Originally Posted by JP Chestnut

And bubblebacks. And muscle cars in the 1980s.

and antiques in general

[Loevhagen]

Some 5-digit Subs are in the Red Subs territory. Maybe 4-digit / vintage is stagnating and not collapsing. That would be healthy.

[greekbum]

A watch is jewelry buy with throw away money and you don't need to worry about future prices. If your looking at it like an investment I hope your a momentum investor as prices have gone straight up.. can it sustain? Etc is your best guess

[SubKing]

Rolex along with some other watch houses, is a conservative company in terms of design.

majority of the models are pretty timeless in terms of looks. If rolex adjusts size or overall appearance, it is only by very little.

So for that reason, I feel the vintage rolex market is solid for the long run.

A 1680 doesn't look all that different from a 16610 and a 16610 doesn't look all that different from a 116610.

Point being, the older sports models are pretty consisitant in terms of looks when compared to a modern piece, which is why they are still very much in style and desirable.

Collectors can wear a vintage sports model rolex and not feel like the piece is dated looking on the wrist, while still getting the warm vintage feel we all adore.

just my 2 cents.

[JP Chestnut]

Originally Posted by Loevhagen

Some 5-digit Subs are in the Red Subs territory. Maybe 4-digit / vintage is stagnating and not collapsing. That would be healthy.

Not to mention SS Zenith Daytonas. Those have become expensive, especially for the early specialty dial variants.

[motoikkyu]

Last year there was a wave of legislation geared at increasing the minimum wage in various regions in the US. There was also a wave of inflation of prices following the election. I'm not sure how much of the recent upward trend in prices is part of this "trend". I'm not sure what anything is worth right now: groceries, commodities, durable goods, Rolex, etc. Rent increases have hit me across the board, but many spaces remain vacant. I wouldn't say the economy is in freefall or anything that radical, but there seems to be a growing uneasiness about values and prices.

[sensui]

Originally Posted by springer

You are correct about the future. My gut feeling is that if your watch has appreciated substantially, why not sell it and not fret about the future. Take the money and run.

There have been many, many threads here on the forum lately about value, trends etc. It's to the point now that it is getting very redundant.

My best advice is buy what you like and enjoy it; but if you bought a watch as an investment and it has increased substantially in value, sell it now and move on to something else.

Originally Posted by greekbum

A watch is jewelry buy with throw away money and you don't need to worry about future prices. If your looking at it like an investment I hope your a momentum investor as prices have gone straight up.. can it sustain? Etc is your best guess

There are some good points being made here.....bottom line I'd agree with this. These watches aren't investments per say but can serve as a good buy over periods of time (so you can't exactly call them terrible investments, there are far worse things to dump money into in terms of hobbies). I would always tell everyone to buy what they actually LIKE to wear and if you're going to play the game, remember everyone's gotta pay to play....so if you're not comfortable with your livelihood in the case that all of these vintages become worthless overnight....you probably shouldn't be buying into these watches. Otherwise, enjoy and appreciate them for what they are friends.

[JP Chestnut]

Originally Posted by sensui

T...so if you're not comfortable with your livelihood in the case that all of these vintages become worthless overnight....you probably shouldn't be buying into these watches. Otherwise, enjoy and appreciate them for what they are friends.

I think this is exactly the right attitude. It's tempting to look at the skyrocketing values of these things and buy something you probably can't afford unless it continues going up (at least a bit).

Someone posted that vintage Rolex was entering FOMO territory, where someone will buy at any price based on the fear that they're going to miss out on future value increases. Even if partially true, that seems unlikely to continue forever.

[BrazenC5]

Originally Posted by JP Chestnut

And bubblebacks. And muscle cars in the 1980s.

"Muscle" cars in the 80s...thats being generous

[donq]

I'm glad I bought mine when I did, because I couldn't justify the prices today.

I bought my 16610 Sub Date, minty with all paperwork and boxes, anchor etc. for $3250 in 2009 and thought I was paying a kings ransom for it. I sold most of my other watches to pay for it. There's no way I could replace it today for the same money, even though it's 8 years older.

I have insurance, so I could replace it if it was stolen or lost, but if prices go up much more I won't be able to enjoy it.

I'm done buying watches because frankly the prices these days are quite daft, and the modern Rolexes just don't do it for me.

[JP Chestnut]

Originally Posted by BrazenC5

"Muscle" cars in the 80s...thats being generous

A 1969 boss 429 is pretty "muscle" and had a huge run up/down in the 80's. I'm not talking about 1980's cars. Though the turbo 6 gnx is probably faster than any regular production car from the 60s or 70s.

[BrazenC5]

Originally Posted by JP Chestnut

A 1969 boss 429 is pretty "muscle" and had a huge run up/down in the 80's. I'm not talking about 1980's cars. Though the turbo 6 gnx is probably faster than any regular production car from the 60s or 70s.

Ahhh, makes more sense. I interpreted your statement "muscle cars in the 80s" as being produced in the 80s...hence the wtf moment.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

[mroberts]

Originally Posted by Loevhagen

Some 5-digit Subs are in the Red Subs territory. Maybe 4-digit / vintage is stagnating and not collapsing. That would be healthy.

The 5 digit there is a full set though. The 1680, while in nice condition, is pretty polished. Prices I have seen for really nice unpolished red Subs lately have been closer to $18k, without papers and boxes.

[FTX I]

Originally Posted by mroberts

The 5 digit there is a full set though. The 1680, while in nice condition, is pretty polished. Prices I have seen for really nice unpolished red Subs lately have been closer to $18k, without papers and boxes.

There's still a large difference, I agree, like the complete set MK4 Red Sub for 26.7K that MM has for sale right now, but Bjoern pointed out they're getting closer and that is true.

[suligeo]

I believe the prices will come back because the last 2 years they went crazy. Not naturally.

[V72]

This .... from my local auction house last week

[roh123]

Originally Posted by V72

This .... from my local auction house last week

Looks like a pretty gilt sub which sold cheap. Would have been fun to see better pics of the watch.

[V72]

These are the catalogue pics,

[roh123]

Disregard the hideous bracelet and the luminova hands and you have a very nice gilt sub.

[Sunny Arizona]

Allow me to share a story. In the early 90s I bought (less than 1600 dollars) a 5513 outside Ft Bragg NC. After a bit I became disenchanted with the plastic crystal and no date. I traded it straight up for a Tag.......... Tell me about Vintage hindsight...I was a ...

Originally Posted by pl2se

I know watch collecting isn't about money. But I would like to admit that it's of some importance. I have spent more than a health amount of money on watches. And I'm not a rich guy so I definitely need to take such rings as value into consideration. As an example, the 1675 I own has increased rather much last years. It's nearly mint. Hands and dials show some heavy patina but seams original as well as the bezel. At the moment it's rather appreciated by the market. However, what's your feeling about that? Do you think the vintage trend will keep on? Or will we see a drop in less than perfect examples? I know you can't predict the future but I'm sure you guys can make an educated guess!

BR
Peter

[BristolCavendish]

Originally Posted by FTX I

The problem with the future is that it only happens afterwards, but I think you're safe with a nice 1675.

Another brilliant and succinct Flavio original.

And so with that in mind, we can assume that the past only occurs once.

Wondering. So what does that tell us about the present?

Back to topic. It would appear that the 4-digit owners who purchased their Subs, GMTs, Explorer variants and manual wind Daytonas during the 1960s through 1970s are perhaps the only ones who actually experienced a serious return on their Rolex 'investment'. These watches were priced around $400.00 'back in the day' (for an SS model) and are now worth considerably more.

[roh123]

Originally Posted by BristolCavendish

Another brilliant and succinct Flavio original.

And so with that in mind, we can assume that the past only occurs once.

Wondering. So what does that tell us about the present?

Back to topic. It would appear that the 4-digit owners who purchased their Subs, GMTs, Explorer variants and manual wind Daytonas during the 1960s through 1970s are perhaps the only ones who actually experienced a serious return on their Rolex 'investment'. These watches were priced around $400.00 'back in the day' (for an SS model) and are now worth considerably more.

Only these people? I'd say anyone who owned nice watches the last 5-10 years have a healthy margin.

An example:

Someone that bought a 6239PN new for $400 in 1970 could sell it for 8k 1990. Someone that bought it for 8k in 1990 could today sell it for 150-200k. Or more normal examples like a standard gilt gmt went from $400 in 1970 to around 5k in 2010. Today it is around 25k.

That said.. Profits are only made once realized.

[BristolCavendish]

Originally Posted by roh123

Only these people? I'd say anyone who owned nice watches the last 5-10 years have a healthy margin.

An example:
Someone that bought a 6239PN new for $400 in 1970 could sell it for 8k 1990. Someone that bought it for 8k in 1990 could today sell it for 150-200k. Or more normal examples like a standard gilt gmt went from $400 in 1970 to around 5k in 2010. Today it is around 25k.

That said.. Profits are only made once realized.

Agreed (even if hindsight is 20/20). The question remains, who has the foresight to predict such things?