Has the watch world gone mad?

[lapince]

Don’t worry I won’t be talking about 5711 prices, we all know about that, but on the 3712 prices, cheapest one on Chrono24 is 103k, the most expensive is 150k, that was basically 5650 prices about 6 months ago, as for these, the cheapest is 146k, most expensive is 218k, to be honest between a 3712 at 150 and a 5650 at the same price, there is no question in my mind I am getting the 5650 all day long. To think I almost got a 3712 5 years ago and instead went for a 5712.

I don’t see this insane market cooling down anytime soon, but I would bet my right hand that in case of a serious crisis, not even as serious as the 2008-2009 crisis, the prices will come crashing down, as usually before selling their vacation homes, people usually sell cars and watches. In any case this is really insane, even the 5711P 40th anniversary edition is fetching insane prices, cheapest for 200, most expensive for 308, insane when you know an original 5711P, which I would take any day over the 40th, was selling for 300 here a few months ago.

But to me this whole situation is like the Bitcoin in December last year, it had been going up very hard and many novice investors afraid of loosing the chance of a lifetime, got in when it was at 15-20, as many “bitcoin experts” where predicting that it would go up to 200k, many of them got wiped out, kind of expecting the same thing when the Patek bubble will burst...

So the same thing IMO seems to be happening here, I can’t imagine people who just want the watch to put insane 50-55k into a 5711, or the other models I talked about, sure maybe some celebrities and social media is helping, but all these prices are becoming totally insane, not sure when the bubble will burst but more than sure it will at the first medium to serious crisis, which should, according to me, happen in 3-4 years...

In any case like always the winners in the investors who see this as an investment, I know a French guy like this, he got the 5711-12 not to wear but just to invest, will be those who bought the lowest and will sell before the bubble explodes.

I clearly would never have gone into Patek had the market been like it is now, that would’ve been a big no no.

[Karbo]

Big news, prices may go down in 3-4 years !
The safest way is to consider watches like a hobby not an investment, and to keep some cash to endure a financial crisis. As long as you dont sell you dont loose money.

[BNA/LION]

Yes.

[unknown]

chrono24 is a piece of crap
it used to be good 5 years ago
Now they just put an insane price on a watch, and mostly they don't have the watch

easy .. they offer a 5711P for 200K euro
ofcourse ... if they find a moron that would pay 200 it's so easy to find one at 170


Prices on chrono24 are no more a reference

[AK797]

We were talking like this a year ago about the ss models so there just is so much disposable money around for highly prized watches even in the six figures now. Global economy has been doing well for a long time now and social media is getting more powerful by the day, just read today that a quarter of 18-24 year olds want short term contract marriages now with the chance of upgrading. What will our world be like in ten years, esp for the young?

[fewwords]

Price for 3712 is justified IMO. Inspiring design and less than 1000 pieces sold, more like 600-700.
Any other vintage watch is understandable too, since there was no supply demand game back then.

[Ichiran]

I think the price of watches is just a reflection of the economy. My friend bought a used 5711 for less than 20k during the credit crunch. Those were the times when news of retrenchment and reorganization came through almost daily. Scary times.

[tchaic]

Come on recession!!! I want a 5650, 5522, and GULP 5711P non 40th.

[jon_jon]

It's a domino effect unfortunately. More and more speculators and resellers join the game as more opportunity arises to earn a quick buck. It leaves true watch enthusiasts on the sideline. However you also see more watch "enthusiasts" taking advantage of the situation and flipping SS sports watches they were able to buy new from ADs.

[unknown]

Originally Posted by fewwords

Price for 3712 is justified IMO. Inspiring design and less than 1000 pieces sold, more like 600-700.
Any other vintage watch is understandable too, since there was no supply demand game back then.

is a simple steel 3712 is justified at 100K, a Platinum 5070 ( probably 150-200 pce) should be 1 million LOL

[fewwords]

5070 had a production of 250 p.a. each metal. It started in 1998.

[RussW]

Originally Posted by fewwords

5070 had a production of 250 p.a. each metal. It started in 1998.

Trust me, Bruno (Unknown) is the most knowledgeable member on this forum for all matters 5070 related.

[fewwords]

Even if it’s true. 3712 is the price worth for me, even though I can‘t afford.
5070 in any version is worth $30,000 for me. Lemania movement, uninspiring design. 5170 is different for me, worth the asked price.

[daveo5]

Nobody but a fool uses modern watches as an investment tool.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro

[Codik]

Assuming I were a dealer, it would be in my interest to put up outrageous prices with no chance to sell on Chrono24.

It doesn’t cost me anything, and, worse case scenario, when I actually sell the watch, the buyer will feel like they got a good deal. Best case scenario, it inflates watch prices.

In fact, if I were a dealer I’d probably spend time posting on watch forum about how lucky someone is to be allowed to buy a watch at retail price.

[GB-man]

Yes

[enjoythemusic]

As we all know, central banks like blowing bubbles and they come in waves. Obviously you know what cycle we're on right now... and what eventually happens.

[fewwords]

Originally Posted by daveo5

Nobody but a fool uses modern watches as an investment tool.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro

So like 80-95% of the users here. If you care for holding value and only buy those watches, you see them as an investment.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by fewwords

So like 80-95% of the users here. If you care for holding value and only buy those watches, you see them as an investment.

Not sure about here on TRF, yet for me it was about personal accomplishment, admiring the craft and genius of mechanical watch making, and knowing a quality company backed it with high quality service. There's quite a bit of steampunk and math in there :)

Sadly, Patek dropped the ball is some respects so have moved elsewhere. Maybe one day they'll find their way back.

[KBM]

Heck yes.

[superstarmar]

Originally Posted by AK797

We were talking like this a year ago about the ss models so there just is so much disposable money around for highly prized watches even in the six figures now. Global economy has been doing well for a long time now and social media is getting more powerful by the day, just read today that a quarter of 18-24 year olds want short term contract marriages now with the chance of upgrading. What will our world be like in ten years, esp for the young?

unbelievable, what are we coming to...
Why get married in the first place ?

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by superstarmar

unbelievable, what are we coming to...
Why get married in the first place ?

Very few species on Earth are monogamous. As for why, could be religious tradition, any number of social items..... that for some reason cause someone to form a legally binding agreement with another person.

[superstarmar]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Very few species on Earth are monogamous. As for why, could be religious tradition, any number of social items..... that for some reason cause someone to form a legally binding agreement with another person.

Well if it's for religious reasons then only infidelity or
death would break that contract legally so to speak...
There is no short term in simple explanation

[enjoythemusic]

Have a funny comeback... but the PC Babies would ban hammer me LOL!

[martinr]

The sky is falling.

[JR16]

This thread has taken an interesting turn!


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[7sins]

More important question is, what are these watches ACTUALLY selling for opposed to asking price? Or do we think sellers are getting close to their listed price? I've been yearning for a 5980, just can't bring myself to pay that much for a SS watch.

[psv]

of course the world has gone mad. i blame Hodinkee and the influx of all the trust fund babies and bankers :-)

[ezinhk]

don’t worry, prices will come down when the markets crash...but PP vs bitcoin...lol

[Peggi]

After many retailers closed the list for 5711/1A people have been going crazy and signing up for waiting lists for any Nautilus piece, regardless of material

What are they actually selling for? Are people here buying grey market or from AD's?