SS Rolex Perspective from a gray dealer

[Pantheon]

YouTube video was posted by John P today and I think it offers an interesting and honest perspective on the current situation on the SS Rolex market from a gray dealer.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=raoRTiOs_Ls&t=627s

For anyone that doesn't know John P, he is the business parter of Federico Talks Watches on YouTube for Delraywatch. They do over 2M a year in gray sales and Federico is my favorite watch YouTube channel

[peterpl]

Did ANYONE seriously think these prices will last forever?

I was saying months ago the watch game is weak in HK and Asia. Many on here saying the protests and virus wont affect nothing. LOL

Come on. No one with some kind of smarts would think these inflated prices would last forever. It takes time for the end users (i.e) you and me to finally get that.

Dealers knew this a while ago already. Give it another 6-12 months. All SS gonna drop as well as other hyped pieces like the YG Green Daytona, The Rhodium SkyD etc....

[epc2]

I respect your opinion, but that guy is not a real Grey dealer , no sales volume to call it a big gray , also you'll never hear the perspective from a real big grey just follow them and check their websites and the classifieds here often and you'll get a better perspective than that video.

[Batmannr1]

I do like the videos of John P, but another youtube watch dealer Roman Sharf gives better information about the state of the current pre-owned watch market.

[Danny83]

Hes just after the Youtube check.

[Pantheon]

Originally Posted by Batmannr1

I do like the videos of John P, but another youtube watch dealer Roman Sharf gives better informational about the state of the current pre-owned watch market.

Yup Roman is another one of my favorites and he knows these guys well

[Podmornica]

What's not to believe? The GMT is at the very beginning of a life cycle and thousands of these are coming to the market in the following months. Folks with the money already bought those over inflated pieces, and now you can clearly tell the prices are falling. If you factor in the current state in HK, it really shouldn't be more than a year from now where you could expect to get the BLNR within a month or so at the retail ..

[Pantheon]

Originally Posted by Podmornica

What's not to believe? The GMT is at the very beginning of a life cycle and thousands of these are coming to the market in the following months. Folks with the money already bought those over inflated pieces, and now you can clearly tell the prices are falling. If you factor in the current state in HK, it really shouldn't be more than a year from now where you could expect to get the BLNR within a month or so at the retail ..

Well, unfortunately a lot of people will be in denial as they worry about the "resale value" on their watches. I don't plan to sell my watches and don't buy to speculate. I will welcome improvement in the availability knowing that real watch lovers will be able to get what they want at retail.

[DonRickles]

Originally Posted by Batmannr1

I do like the videos of John P, but another youtube watch dealer Roman Sharf gives better information about the state of the current pre-owned watch market.

One of his employees is my sons buddy, he shoots all those videos and pictures Roman posts. I've yet to meet him but plan on talking with him. I did check to see if he could grab a SS Daytona, no msrp price was 24k.......

[brandrea]

I’m not sure what it is about most watch reviews on you tube, but I find them annoying.

[037]

Originally Posted by brandrea

I’m not sure what it is about most watch reviews on you tube, but I find them annoying.

Same here. Prognostication is worse though. At least a review shows a watch — and I like watches.

Originally Posted by Danny83

Hes just after the Youtube check.

Aren't they all? Content be damned. Clickbait rules the day.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by peterpl

Did ANYONE seriously think these prices will last forever?

LOL YES! Tons of guys on this forum actually, who will end up back tracking like they never said ‘oh this will last many years until the foreseeable future’! It’s REALLY going to open up if this market continues to fall. Haha those same guys would also say ‘the luxury watch market will be largely unaffected by an economic downturn, people who buy Rolex will be well off regardless’.




These status chasers/IG posers/non watch people who bought hot models above MSRP as an ‘investment’? Are going to jump ship by the hoardes when they see it dropping thousands/30% off what they paid. The real watch guys won’t sell solely due to that.....they’ll just be sick to their stomach for overpaying so much.

[glamorama]

John P is the only YouTuber I have to put at 0.75 speed instead of 1.25.

Like some of his videos

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by 037

Same here. Prognostication is worse though. At least a review shows a watch — and I like watches.


Aren't they all? Content be damned. Clickbait rules the day.

I can get on board with watch content too Erik

Some of these reviewers have an interesting take I suppose.

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[Hollie_Rollie]

I agree with JP on this one. I'm not pulling the trigger on any new watch purchases yet in 2020 until we get a clearer picture of the gray market

[Nikrnic]

Originally Posted by Batmannr1

I do like the videos of John P, but another youtube watch dealer Roman Sharf gives better information about the state of the current pre-owned watch market.

Romans pretty good, talk about real money in the watch game, Geez! He's pretty deep into it and seems like a real personable guy..

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[Calatrava r]

There was nothing in that JP video that most people would not already know. This subject has been talked to death.

[Michael V]

The pendulum continues to swing. I personally hope the watch market tanks as I don't care what the gray does as I only plan to buy brand new with my name on the card. I just want stock to come back. I'm too OCD to have it any other way.

[garyk]

Originally Posted by peterpl

Did ANYONE seriously think these prices will last forever? All SS gonna drop as well as other hyped pieces like the YG Green Daytona, The Rhodium SkyD etc....

I love it when people mention the YG Green Daytona. I am next on the list for one since last year at my AD. I will pay retail for it and I'm satisfied to do it, the hype just doesn't matter...

[Shdrolex]

Originally Posted by Batmannr1

I do like the videos of John P, but another youtube watch dealer Roman Sharf gives better information about the state of the current pre-owned watch market.

I agree with u

[Rado63]

This video presumes that Rolex as a manufacturer has some type of insulation from supply chain shortages, and will keep cranking out watches as though their supply chain is immune to global downturns, shortages, supply chain failure, labor shortages, and shipping delays.

[Nikrnic]

Some good points though, one being most Rolex buyers are not enthusiasts and will move on to other brands, not willing to pay inflated grey prices. When there's nothing to see at ADs other than a TT here and there its not hard to find an Omega store nearby.

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[Harry-57]

Another monologue aimed at money collectors who pretend to be watch collectors.

[peterpl]

US down 3.5% overnight? WOW

Market is spooked. To be honest I think you'd have to be a complete idiot to buy any Rolex watch as an "investment" right now. That eliminates 80%+ of buyers at the moment unless they have have rocks for brains.

The other 20% that "may" be watch lovers wont be buying either. They know prices are correcting and without stabilisation in the economy soon they wont buy either.

Where are all the guys that are saying only "ROLEX" are immune to economy? HAHAHAHA get out of here. hahaha

[GB-man]

2m is jack squat for a grey dealer.

[Michael V]

Originally Posted by peterpl

The other 20% that "may" be watch lovers wont be buying either. They know prices are correcting and without stabilisation in the economy soon they wont buy either.

Contrary, if the US economy tanks tomorrow I am still a buyer at MSRP for a black or blue dial Sky Dweller. I want it for my collection and love the movement..

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by Michael V

Contrary, if the US economy tanks tomorrow I am still a buyer at MSRP for a black or blue dial Sky Dweller. I want it for my collection and love the movement..

Well that just means your not a flipper and buying for yourself which is great!

Enjoy.

[dimag333]

Erik is the best from crm to me

steve

[dmash]

Originally Posted by peterpl

Where are all the guys that are saying only "ROLEX" are immune to economy? HAHAHAHA get out of here. hahaha

They were still posting even last month talking about how ‘this is the new new, absolutely no way prices are coming down!’

[miamiclay]

Originally Posted by Rado63

This video presumes that Rolex as a manufacturer has some type of insulation from supply chain shortages, and will keep cranking out watches as though their supply chain is immune to global downturns, shortages, supply chain failure, labor shortages, and shipping delays.

I don’t have a dog in this modern-SS race, but I’d assume that Rolex as a manufacturer is indeed far more insulated from supply chain disruptions than most. Their vertical manufacturing integration approaches 100%, and it’s not like they need to worry about steady shiploads of steel — I imagine they could almost store a few years’ supply of raw metal in a 2-car garage! Probably they have strategic stockpiles of any materials at serious risk of disruption, and their labor needs are tiny. Their supply side has to be much, much safer than their demand side.