AD or Grey Market? What’s the Math?

[NotGrey]

Has anyone ever done the math on how much you lose meeting the spending requirement to get listed for a more desirable and higher “grey market markup” watch?

Is it better to give up and buy from grey dealers who bribe ADs/have existing relationships or do you save money by buying some watch you don’t want, selling it later for a loss, but getting the watch you really want for retail?

Anyone know what models they generally have problems moving? I guess diamond/precious metal womens’ models or something? Wonder how much less those are worth on grey market vs retail.

Presumably, a lot of grey dealers bundle purchase things profitably. Since they have better sell prices than an individual is able to get for their watches, maybe it makes sense for them, but not for you and I. Not sure what the numbers are.

It seems there aren’t extremely clear numbers or guarantees on if you’ll really get what you’re ultimately wanting later. There is a guy on YouTube who mentions specific spending tiers of like 20k 50k 80k etc. do ADs disclose them?

This uncertainty definitely adds a level of risk to the equation. Maybe buying grey is the clear winner if you aren’t a dealer.

PS I don’t want to flip… I just want the watches I want…

[train-time]

I recently shared a post where it was said that an AD offered a customer a SS Daytona after spending $168K on jewelry. My AD responded that with them $168K was relatively small number to be offered a Daytona.

[brandrea]

It’s cheaper to go gray unless you actually want the other stuff

[johnwigan]

Depends where you are located. When you buy grey you pay an inflated price, may get a dodgy watch, and the grey seller/flipper gets your purchase history as his own. Great deal for the grey seller.

I would rather have my own purchase history, buy a brand new and genuine watch at RRP, and wait for COVID to be gone and supply to return to normality. Requires a bit of patience but it can be done.

[travisb]

If I was just starting out in this hobby I’d go grey. Too much work to try and build a new relationship with an AD nowadays.
Luckily I started 20 years ago before things got crazy.

[GoingPlaces]

Depends on the market, major market AD'S will require far more spend than smaller market.

[47Fountain]

Grey all the way. I'd never play the A.D game, my time is worth more to me than a little bit of mark up.

[amanbra]

I got a ss Daytona today with spend no where near the spend mentioned above. You can get lucky but this is absolutely not assured. I got stupid lucky. I had to really prove I wasn’t a flipper etc. lots of checks balances and conversations not to mention platinum and a tt purchase. I did want those watches though. It could have been another 3-4 watches before the ss Daytona. Before this ad I wasted time at a different ad to get nothing.

Mileage varies because of the uncertainty and if there is just one key watch you want just go get it like others have mentioned.


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[JayHantz]

If you are looking for one watch from the crown to have in the collection, I think grey is the best way to go. If you are looking to build a collection, then patience and a good AD is key.

[crew]

Originally Posted by JayHantz

If you are looking for one watch from the crown to have in the collection, I think grey is the best way to go. If you are looking to build a collection, then patience and a good AD is key.

Agreed.
Unfortunately both are in short supply.

[rambo99]

depends on your look, personality and your occupation, someone would be easier to convince the AD that you are not a flipper and would be a repeat customer in the future.

[watchwatcher]

I have no idea--partly b/c I typically try to avoid math.

In reality, there really isn't much involved, (thankfully, lol). If you have access to an AD that is actually getting watches and keeps you supplied, then, you're good.

If not, well, you just have to do whatever it is you feel comfortable doing.

[Flint]

I have never got into this creating relationship with AD nonsense and would never dream of buying Grey prices , despite this and over many years I have always managed to buy the watch I wanted and always at recommended retail price . I do have sympathy for enthusiasts new to the hobby and how difficult it must be to purchase a chosen watch without past history but maintain as long as people are foolish enough to buy at super inflated grey prices , this crazy situation will be with us forever

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by brandrea

It’s cheaper to go gray unless you actually want the other stuff

Exactly. And far easier. Get what you want and onlyu what you want.

[WatchNutcase]

It's so difficult to say these days, things are really out of control. I think 1-2 years ago I would have said to be patient and try out a few AD's, but now the best thing might just be going grey.

With that said, if you do go grey choose the watch wisely. Don't pay 18k (or whatever crazy markup) for an OP - please.

[Societas]

No Math possible as it is clear that AD use a mix of spend history / spend potential / judgement on your character / inventory forecast to calibrate if you're getting the watch you want or not.

And that mix varies by market, by city, by AD Franchise, manager, SA. That's the beauty of the game ;)

If you don't like that game, just go grey I guess, where the rule is simple: cash.

[m j b]

I don't get this whole "buy a watch you don't want and sell it at a loss" when most of us can't get any watch with a crown on it, desirable or not.

[IamJacky]

If math is involved then clearly the way to go is grey, because that is the only sure way you'll ever get the watch you want, when you want it.

There is no definitive spend amount that will guarantee you any watch within any timeframe by building a spend history at the AD; however that is not to say grey is better and that AD route is worse, it all depends on your goal.

The way I see it:

AD Route:
Pros - MSRP, Peace of Mind for getting 100% Authentic Rolex, future offerings
Cons - Must have spend history (for popular models), No guarantee when or if I'll get the watch

Grey route:
Pros - Get the watch right away
Cons - Paying market premium, possible fake/tempered watch, "not the first owner"

If you have a good disposable income and really want one particular watch, then I'd say just buy the watch you want off a reputable seller, and at the same time start building a relationship with an AD. Sell the grey watch when the AD offers you a brand spanking new watch that you asked for.

If you have just enough fund for that one watch you want, then forget about building relationship with AD, just go grey and get it over with.

If you have enough fund and aren't exactly eager for any specific model, then go for the AD route.

[brian628]

This is an unanswerable question for another person. Only you know your level own level motivation to own a piece.

If we start from the assumption that you really want a watch, then your level of motivation to get it will be defined by two fundamental variables: your willingness to spend the money and the amount of time you are willing to wait. Put those together and that will inform your your decision to chose one route or the or the other.

Grey? AD? Whatever. That's not the point.
Your level of motivation is defined by the variables above that you need to ask yourself.

[Slider817]

I got into, Rolex and watches in general when discounts were expected from an AD on pretty much any Rolex other than a Daytona, which was easily available, this wasn’t that long ago, and was still the norm until the last few years.

Don’t play AD games, if you want a watch, maybe pay a little over retail from the Grey/semiconductor hand, but otherwise just buy another watch, there are loads of very cool watches out there that are not Rolex sports models.

[fskywalker]

Not feeding the grey market !


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[Calatrava r]

It really depends on if you want a used watch at a premium or a new watch at retail. Since the latter is fairly tough these days on anything Rolex, the pre-owned market looks attractive on many models where the premium is lower. You will also need to be content with one watch for a while. As said, if you're looking to build a collection, it makes more sense to buy new from an AD over time. When they see you keep your watches and wear them in the store, the Rolex watch AD world will open up to you.

[SaintMickey]

Originally Posted by JayHantz

If you are looking for one watch from the crown to have in the collection, I think grey is the best way to go. If you are looking to build a collection, then patience and a good AD is key.

That's actually a good point/advise. Why play the games and over spend on things that you might not want. If you want one watch find the best deal at a Grey Market seller and ride off into the sunset happy...with your watch.

[codester]

Get the watch you want when you want it. No need for games with the hope you may get your dream watch. All AD’s I’ve been in recently have no watches on display. Just pay the price and enjoy it now.

[Harry-57]

I don't think there is a mathematical model that will suit all. My model is to never buy something I don't want. Everything else follows on from that but could go in a number of directions over a number of time scales. We all have our own experiences, approaches and cut off points. I've bought two Roles watches grey. I wanted them too much and the prospect of an AD purchase was zero.

Some watches I like but not enough to pay they grey premium, either because the premium is too high for me, I don't like them that much, or both. So I will continue to ask my AD when I'm in for something. Money changes hands (but not on junk I don't want) , relationships develop, things change. I've had some success with this approach. It takes time and it won't suit everyone.

[inadeje]

Here’s the formula OP.

1. = AD in a big city
2. = AD in a mall but you know his brothers uncle
3. = Independent AD with 200k spend on earrings and necklaces

[Polar Bear]

How many (and what) watches do you want?
If just planning on a Pepsi and a Daytona, go Grey
If you want multiple watches, a mix of brands and materials plus a few stones for your lady, start at the AD and hope for the best

[Atlanta]

I recently bought a new WG Sub gray. If I factored the 8.9% sales tax I didn’t have to pay, I paid a $400 premium.


Member #14554
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[shimps1]

I am thinking about going grey for the watch I want, and then when my AD does call, if they do, just either selling the grey watch at a small loss, of selling the AD watch at a profit to offset the premium I paid from the grey.

Just depends on future market values and how much risk I'm willing to take on. I don't think this market is going away soon, but there is quite a bit of turmoil in the future for the economy, that is for sure.

[Flint]

Originally Posted by fskywalker

Not feeding the grey market !


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Exactly this but unfortunately they keep getting fed !