Long term forecast for the Nautilus

[gmstevenson]

Originally Posted by fleetlord

it's interesting to see a trade scenario where one trades a watch they paid $25k for and gets $50k for it...then they obtain a watch with a retail of $50k plus that is horologically "better" and it will barely fetch $25k on the "market"...

+1

[guffyboy92]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

It's interesting to see a trade scenario where one trades a watch they paid $25K for and gets $50K for it...Then they obtain a watch with a retail of $50K plus that is horologically "better" and it will barely fetch $25K on the "market"...

To each is own. It all depends on what your motivation behind buying a watch is. If one is a speculator and sees it as an investment vehicle then that would be a bad business decision. But if one buys a watch for the love of watches and horology, then maybe that person wouldn't care so much about the loss of value, as they have something that was originally meant to be worth more because of it's horological superiority that tickles their fancy. Personally it would be nice to buy something worth $50k and have it appreciate, but I'd be happy with steady value retention so long as I enjoyed it thoroughly

[madsklz]

This watch continues to increase in value

[gaeleus]

One thing is for sure. The watch world has evolved dramatically over the last few years. It is now more main stream. Meaning, non WIS people are now into watches. People like celebrities and rappers, etc. I remember not that long ago when a Holy Trilogy Piece was only known to true watch aficionados. Now more people will recognize them and want them. They have become status symbols and hence the bubble that is occurring. I don't think things will go back to the way they used to be. Social media has, of course, played a big part. I do miss the old days.

[Watch Admirer]

Originally Posted by gaeleus

One thing is for sure. The watch world has evolved dramatically over the last few years. It is now more main stream. Meaning, non WIS people are now into watches. People like celebrities and rappers, etc. I remember not that long ago when a Holy Trilogy Piece was only known to true watch aficionados. Now more people will recognize them and want them. They have become status symbols and hence the bubble that is occurring. I don't think things will go back to the way they used to be. Social media has, of course, played a big part. I do miss the old days.

As a consequence to that, i really believe that Rolex's status will slowly but surely rise up to higher levels. If Patek and AP become less and less exclusive, poeple will tend to look for something else - if customers from Rolex moved to Patek and PP, i suspect they'd return to Rolex or turn to super high end luxury if the means allow it.

[Pingparme]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

i just think at these price levels you are not buying something to tell the time anyway. The practicalness of a watch has long since passed. Even quartz is probably a better option so i just contend that a high end mechanical watch's function isn't to tell the time at all, but its not a smart watch's function either... its a gadget.

So, the thing getting lost in all of this is neither are necessary for finding out what time it is and i also don't think either overlap in any meaningful sense. Some brands are trying to grab smart watch market share but i think those customers were most likely not going to be buyers of their mechanical offerings anyway. They are the smart watch or no watch people. Nothing wrong with catering to them either.

A lot of people are obsessed with attaching meaning to inanimate objects (not just watches) and you cant do that with a watch that needs to be replaced every year or two. The human element of sentimentality which Patek excels at highlighting is probably the single largest factor.

It doesn’t matter if Apple watches have become the top selling watch. People buy these things for specific purposes and one is not exclusive of the other.

I know many people who have Apple watches who also possess many other mechanical watches at the same time and they wear them according to their needs at that point in time, alternating, either for utility (Apple) or for prestige or other motivations (luxury mechanical).

Not many people really care about telling time on a watch anymore.

For thousands of years, humans have valued jewelries, wearing precious objects around their necks, heads, hands, feet. Its about self beautification, self expression, and in some cases, a status symbol. The luxury watch industry is just an extension of this. It is a modernized way of such expression. Humans, as long as we continue to love beautiful things, appreciate the arts and value intricate, highly skilled and rare craftsmanship, and have the means to acquire, will continue to see these things as a way to satisfy their needs. Not to mention satisfying one’s ego!

The luxury watch industry may mellow down, but it will never die out because it remains many things to many people (form of art, tell the time, as a liquid investment, a way to accessorize and a means to express oneself, or simply to show off to the world, a watch is a great way to express/appreciate/attain all these).

I could personally stare at my watch while taking a break during meal time, in the car waiting at the lights, after a phone call in the office, etc. and when I look at how beautiful the dial of my 5170P is or the sleekness of my 5711 (330SC) or the splendid work that went into creating my bespoke Artisans de Geneve Daytona 6240 Tropical (oxidized in the Bahamas)..... it makes my day.

No one can predict how much a watch will be worth in 30 years time, but as long as you buy the watch you like and wear it to enjoy, that’s the essence of watch collecting.

[italiafan]

I still remember to this day the feeling I had the first time I got a wristwatch as a present from my parents; I think I was ~ 7 years old.
I stared at it for hours.
I have had a watch on my wrist ever since.
It is a part of my persona....I feel "naked" when not wearing a watch. Luckily with having a Rolex ExpII there is almost zero reason to not be wearing a watch.

I look at the time on my watch >50X/day.
I check the date >20X/day (must be a mental block or something...outsource that information to the watch and don't keep it in my head).
I sometimes get lost in thought and stare at my watch for 5 minutes in a meditative trance-like state.
I'll never not wear a mechanical watch regardless of what the technological world is doing around me.

I'll be retiring soon....if people want to get in touch with me they'll have to write me a letter with a fountain pen....

[Pingparme]

Originally Posted by italiafan

i still remember to this day the feeling i had the first time i got a wristwatch as a present from my parents; i think i was ~ 7 years old.
I stared at it for hours.
I have had a watch on my wrist ever since.
It is a part of my persona....i feel "naked" when not wearing a watch. Luckily with having a rolex expii there is almost zero reason to not be wearing a watch.

I look at the time on my watch >50x/day.
I check the date >20x/day (must be a mental block or something...outsource that information to the watch and don't keep it in my head).
I sometimes get lost in thought and stare at my watch for 5 minutes in a meditative trance-like state.
I'll never not wear a mechanical watch regardless of what the technological world is doing around me.

I'll be retiring soon....if people want to get in touch with me they'll have to write me a letter with a fountain pen....

👍🏼👍🏼👍🏼

[Bearxj86]

First off. There is no wrong answer here. You were able to double your money while enjoying an amazing watch for 7 years. This is the type of story I love and the reason why I got into watches...to enjoy amazing pieces of art with low to no cost of ownership :)

In general, Pateks do well in the long run and the Nautilus would do just fine. Do I expect $500k? Perhaps not but it should at least keep pace with inflation and perhaps a little better.

As for timing - I've been closely monitoring the forums and sales and a few 5167As sold this past week. I think the volume of watches changing hands are starting their usual holiday volume through January. Once the dealer inventory dries up (I've already seen dealers asking for 5711Rs) prices likely will go up in the next 2-3 months.

Timing the market is never a wise move - you got out ahead and that is all that matters. Don't look back my friend (or if you do, get one at retail :D)

[locutus49]

This is very good advice, for watches and stocks.

Originally Posted by bearxj86

First off. There is no wrong answer here. You were able to double your money while enjoying an amazing watch for 7 years. This is the type of story I love and the reason why I got into watches...to enjoy amazing pieces of art with low to no cost of ownership :)

In general, Pateks do well in the long run and the Nautilus would do just fine. Do I expect $500k? Perhaps not but it should at least keep pace with inflation and perhaps a little better.

As for timing - I've been closely monitoring the forums and sales and a few 5167As sold this past week. I think the volume of watches changing hands are starting their usual holiday volume through January. Once the dealer inventory dries up (I've already seen dealers asking for 5711Rs) prices likely will go up in the next 2-3 months.

Timing the market is never a wise move - you got out ahead and that is all that matters. Don't look back my friend (or if you do, get one at retail :D)

[MCMartiny]

Originally Posted by italiafan

I still remember to this day the feeling I had the first time I got a wristwatch as a present from my parents; I think I was ~ 7 years old.
I stared at it for hours.
I have had a watch on my wrist ever since.
It is a part of my persona....I feel "naked" when not wearing a watch. Luckily with having a Rolex ExpII there is almost zero reason to not be wearing a watch.

I look at the time on my watch >50X/day.
I check the date >20X/day (must be a mental block or something...outsource that information to the watch and don't keep it in my head).
I sometimes get lost in thought and stare at my watch for 5 minutes in a meditative trance-like state.
I'll never not wear a mechanical watch regardless of what the technological world is doing around me.

I'll be retiring soon....if people want to get in touch with me they'll have to write me a letter with a fountain pen....

I am still a couple of decades from retiring, but your feelings about mechanical watches resonates strongly with me.

In these times of consumerism, constant technological change and disposable products it is nice to have a few areas of human experience that remains the same as when my grandfather was young. In the era of 2-year phones, 5-year cars and one-off jobs, the art of horology speaks a story of more civilised values, when words such as quality, craftsmanship, and romance were still meaningful. The inherent qualities of a good mechanical watch are the result of building something of enduring excellence by doing it to the very best of your ability, not by finding an easier way to tell the time and day.

[JR16]

Originally Posted by MCMartiny

I am still a couple of decades from retiring, but your feelings about mechanical watches resonates strongly with me.



In these times of consumerism, constant technological change and disposable products it is nice to have a few areas of human experience that remains the same as when my grandfather was young. In the era of 2-year phones, 5-year cars and one-off jobs, the art of horology speaks a story of more civilised values, when words such as quality, craftsmanship, and romance were still meaningful. The inherent qualities of a good mechanical watch are the result of building something of enduring excellence by doing it to the very best of your ability, not by finding an easier way to tell the time and day.

What a great response... I’m showing it to my wife the next time she notices a new watch on my wrist!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[brockburst]

Originally Posted by dmash

I’m saying that because people think history will repeat itself on certain things. Those Paul Newman’s fetch that because we didn’t have social media, people weren’t aware of trends on a worldly basis, social media was non-existent, you had to physically walk in somewhere to obtain that. Now....you want a 5711? There’s hundreds of different places within 5 minutes you could buy one (albeit at a premium). That makes it impossible for the 5711 to ever reach the collectability of something like Newman Daytona.
......and that’s just one factor. 30 years from now? Who knows if mechanical timepieces are even a thing. Nobody can predict that far ahead.


I think people are taking the 5711 ‘discontinuation’ a little too serious. Sure, perhaps in the future, but definitely not any time soon IMO. Just because TS mentioned it doesn’t mean it’s around the corner. They may release another larger watch like you speak of, sure, but to have it replace the 5711? Don’t see it. Patek is much more traditional than other companies, and although not by any means the most historic piece in their lineup, it still stands in its own right.

I see the Aquanaut lineup continuously growing. The orange hand piece from this year backs that logic up. They can have fun with that, perhaps release ‘trendier’ pieces and purists won’t care.

Actually, Paul Newman's and Big Red Daytona's were the bain of the Rolex lineup forever. They were a complete and total flop for a long time. Additionally, supply is significantly less compared to the Nautilus.

[Vipes]

Originally Posted by MCMartiny

I am still a couple of decades from retiring, but your feelings about mechanical watches resonates strongly with me.

In these times of consumerism, constant technological change and disposable products it is nice to have a few areas of human experience that remains the same as when my grandfather was young. In the era of 2-year phones, 5-year cars and one-off jobs, the art of horology speaks a story of more civilised values, when words such as quality, craftsmanship, and romance were still meaningful. The inherent qualities of a good mechanical watch are the result of building something of enduring excellence by doing it to the very best of your ability, not by finding an easier way to tell the time and day.

My exact feelings on horology. You just stated more eloquently than what I could have.

[italiafan]

Originally Posted by MCMartiny

I am still a couple of decades from retiring, but your feelings about mechanical watches resonates strongly with me.

In these times of consumerism, constant technological change and disposable products it is nice to have a few areas of human experience that remains the same as when my grandfather was young. In the era of 2-year phones, 5-year cars and one-off jobs, the art of horology speaks a story of more civilised values, when words such as quality, craftsmanship, and romance were still meaningful. The inherent qualities of a good mechanical watch are the result of building something of enduring excellence by doing it to the very best of your ability, not by finding an easier way to tell the time and day.

Beautifully stated.
I am afraid we are losing touch with the beauty of quality in our fast-paced disposable society.
A Swiss mechanical timepiece flies in the face of this unfortunate trend.