Grey Market Slipping and Struggling ?

[Explorer2polar]

Hi TRF,

Please feel free to comment on my observations and view point.

As an avid market watcher (UK) I have noticed the Grey re-sellers now find themselves discounting prices to stimulate business. It appears to me that stock is not moving at all and the Greys are getting twitchy with so much money/stock tied up in their Shops and Safe's.

The Part Time occasional flipper ( Bought a Rolex to make money on it) is now getting cold feet and some heavy hitting Rolex models are available at relative discounted prices (New Daytona White/Ceramic available for £ 18.9K was £ 22k a couple of months back).

In general I have seen the Rolex market just start to move a little in favour of the True WIS and perhaps this is the start of the end for the Rolex speculators. I hope.

I have spoke to my local AD today and they say Rolex UK are applying massive pressure on them to ensure all Rolex sales are to bona fide customers and any transgressors are reported to Rolex HQ for further analysis and action.

Just a few thoughts.

Happy New Year

[FATO]

I have noticed prices slipping on Chrono24 as well. Grey huge mark ups reflects excessive greed. I’ll be laughing when these grey dealers go out if business


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[Calatrava r]

The overall watch market is softening. Demand for SS sports type watches was not going to rise forever at the rate it was. Everything is cyclical.

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

The overall watch market is softening. Demand for SS sports type watches was not going to rise forever at the rate it was. Everything is cyclical.

X2. There comes a point when things hit its high mark and then settles slightly lower to stabilize. What some feel is that the industry will crash back down to msrp normal and I am not sure we will ever see that anytime soon. There is a very good possibility that it could stabilize for a while, establish a new normal and then edge up again.

When AD’s have full cases and start to sell below msrp will you ever see any significant change in the Rolex market.

[Patton250]

It’s amazing that what we are truly discussing here is the hope and possible celebration that Rolex prices are receding back from being marked up double MSRP. Wow. It will definitely be interesting to see how supply at the AD’s pan out this year. That will have a direct impact on Grey pricing or more importantly profit to the flipper.

[spoon-turbo]

Maybe a minor price correction. But I do not think prices of hot models from grey will ever go back to msrp.

[iliketime]

People finally realized its not worth it to throw their hard earned money away and stop playing the game

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by iliketime

People finally realized its not worth it to throw their hard earned money away and stop playing the game

That would be awesome but I doubt it. What $100,000 is to one person is $10,000 to another person and $1000 to another person and $100 to another person and $10 to another person. What I mean by that is sometimes paying double for $12,400 watch to some people isn’t that big of a deal. It certainly is to me though.

[scarlet knight]

Nautilus, AP and Rolex SS will sink to MRSP. But no one will want to buy them.

[joli160]

I don't know where you get that idea but prices are actually going up following the increase from Rolex.

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by Patton250

That would be awesome but I doubt it. What $100,000 is to one person is $10,000 to another person and $1000 to another person and $100 to another person and $10 to another person. What I mean by that is sometimes paying double for $12,400 watch to some people isn’t that big of a deal. It certainly is to me though.

I think those people already got their watches at double the MSRP though, saturation point has to be reached when the watches are still in production (Minus the Daytona)

[Mystro]

We are in a bubble here on this forum. To the rest of the world and especially the affluent, they are just catching on that a ”Rolex” is fashionable and in vogue like the 1980’s. The trouble is unlike the 1980‘s they can’t just go into a dealer to buy one. Most people don’t have watch connections and will just Google a source and this is why paying a inflated price is not a real factor. Look at the mark-up on a quality diamond. The premium on a Rolex is nothing and that is how it will be justified. Rolex is a luxury item targeted to that demographic way of thinking.

You start buying a luxury item out of financial context for what ever reason and you start to see a primary focus on price points and not the actual product. This is the dichotomy of the enthusiast and the luxury brand image that Rolex markets to and its primary buying demographic.

If you are a “enthusiast” then this is the “Rolex baggage” we use to speak of all the time on this forum. Today the new influx of commodity traders have blurred the lines so now enthusiast either don’t get a watch or have to pay beyond their comfort zone on a luxury item that is clearly moving more upscale than it was years back.

[iliketime]

Originally Posted by Patton250

That would be awesome but I doubt it. What $100,000 is to one person is $10,000 to another person and $1000 to another person and $100 to another person and $10 to another person. What I mean by that is sometimes paying double for $12,400 watch to some people isn’t that big of a deal. It certainly is to me though.

Agreed, most of us work very hard to afford these nice things but there are just folks out there with very deep pockets. If they can afford to pay double msrp, salud to them. I guess they just want it that bad. Luckily for me, the six digit serials mostly do not appeal to me.

[TswaneNguni]

What people are prepared to pay ,is what the price will be .

Minor correction ,which may go up in January due to Rolex increase on MRSP .

Demand wont drop due to the moderate increase .Don't expect more stock available at the AD.

The status quo remains .

[WatchLurv]

Prices are set in Hong Kong. Prices have been dropping since the 2nd week of the protest that started on the 9th of June (or was it the 6th?). When the first week 1M people took to the street and the 2nd week 2M took to the streets and with the escalation of violence (as even seen today, Chinese people with their suitcases were chased down on a footbridge), the Chinese have stayed away and kept Hong Kong at arm's length.

Prices have been controlled by the Chinese being able to buy watches at these prices and "frying" (as a local saying) them. The rest of the world has just reaped their rewards by picking up these watches, bringing them back and setting their own price with VAT/GST.

Displays at Rolex will remain unchanged as supply will stay the same. Good luck thinking it'll hit MSRP or below MSRP. The premium will always be there unless Rolex changes up strategy and start sending out merchandise like 2015 again.

Tom, Dick and Harry may have been on a list for a Batman and may have benefited from the pricehike by selling to greys, but they aren't the driving force behind the premiums.

Did grey prices increase over Christmas? Hardly so. Where was the demand then? Or did DOW drop 5 points so people staved off buying a Daytona at premium? As said before; prices are set in Hong Kong. The rest of the world just looks on.

Grey dealers getting out of business? 100% unlikely. It's a free market and grey dealers were in business when you were enjoying 25% off MSRP for a 116610LN. Funny to think that people on here see the greys as culprits, when they're offering the watches at "market price".

The "true WIS" and "Im buying to wear it! Not flip it!" is a fart in a glass. No "true WIS" will keep an AD in business when they sit on stock such as an iced out pearlmaster or ugly (subjective of course) lady datejusts in 28mm. The AD is most likely to go out of business because the "true WIS" won't pick up their dead stock and Rolex wants them to sell it. Guess where all that dead stock ends up at? The same people you call "bad-men".

[DYJ150]

Originally Posted by Explorer2polar

Hi TRF,

Please feel free to comment on my observations and view point.

As an avid market watcher (UK) I have noticed the Grey re-sellers now find themselves discounting prices to stimulate business. It appears to me that stock is not moving at all and the Greys are getting twitchy with so much money/stock tied up in their Shops and Safe's.

The Part Time occasional flipper ( Bought a Rolex to make money on it) is now getting cold feet and some heavy hitting Rolex models are available at relative discounted prices (New Daytona White/Ceramic available for £ 18.9K was £ 22k a couple of months back).

In general I have seen the Rolex market just start to move a little in favour of the True WIS and perhaps this is the start of the end for the Rolex speculators. I hope.

I have spoke to my local AD today and they say Rolex UK are applying massive pressure on them to ensure all Rolex sales are to bona fide customers and any transgressors are reported to Rolex HQ for further analysis and action.

Just a few thoughts.

Happy New Year

100% agree....This is the second time a particular grey dealer (WF) has had a sale on....OK yes they are still massively over RRP but surely this is a sign the market is changing. Let’s see what the UK price increase does to the prices.

[Magicmerlin]

Bought a Bat from a recommend grey 2 weeks ago. Whilst I was there the grey sold 2 daytona to a mainlander (China) as I chatted to him he said they were presents to someone back home. Paid in cash! & was given £500 off each watch.

[Nairn1980]

Originally Posted by DYJ150

100% agree....This is the second time a particular grey dealer (WF) has had a sale on....OK yes they are still massively over RRP but surely this is a sign the market is changing. Let’s see what the UK price increase does to the prices.

I agree, 2020 will be interesting.
If they launch some hot new models, it could certainly reduce the heat on the current “hot models”

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by WatchLurv

Prices are set in Hong Kong. Prices have been dropping since the 2nd week of the protest that started on the 9th of June (or was it the 6th?). When the first week 1M people took to the street and the 2nd week 2M took to the streets and with the escalation of violence (as even seen today, Chinese people with their suitcases were chased down on a footbridge), the Chinese have stayed away and kept Hong Kong at arm's length.

Prices have been controlled by the Chinese being able to buy watches at these prices and "frying" (as a local saying) them. The rest of the world has just reaped their rewards by picking up these watches, bringing them back and setting their own price with VAT/GST.

Displays at Rolex will remain unchanged as supply will stay the same. Good luck thinking it'll hit MSRP or below MSRP. The premium will always be there unless Rolex changes up strategy and start sending out merchandise like 2015 again.

Tom, Dick and Harry may have been on a list for a Batman and may have benefited from the pricehike by selling to greys, but they aren't the driving force behind the premiums.

Did grey prices increase over Christmas? Hardly so. Where was the demand then? Or did DOW drop 5 points so people staved off buying a Daytona at premium? As said before; prices are set in Hong Kong. The rest of the world just looks on.

Grey dealers getting out of business? 100% unlikely. It's a free market and grey dealers were in business when you were enjoying 25% off MSRP for a 116610LN. Funny to think that people on here see the greys as culprits, when they're offering the watches at "market price".

The "true WIS" and "Im buying to wear it! Not flip it!" is a fart in a glass. No "true WIS" will keep an AD in business when they sit on stock such as an iced out pearlmaster or ugly (subjective of course) lady datejusts in 28mm. The AD is most likely to go out of business because the "true WIS" won't pick up their dead stock and Rolex wants them to sell it. Guess where all that dead stock ends up at? The same people you call "bad-men".

^^^^Required understanding for all the Newbies^^^. He is spot on.

Life isn’t fair and we don’t live in a socialist economy when it comes to luxury watches. Understanding the game makes it far less scary.

[djgallo]

It’s natural for all markets to fluctuate...there’s too many micro fanatics on this forum crying the sky is falling when a few down ticks in prices occur...relax.

[Explorer2polar]

I have not experienced this China syndrome so cannot comment on the Honk Kong market,

I know this is not entirely representative but I have two moderate size UK Grey Rolex dealers close to me and they are both on their knees with crippling debt.

The Rolex market is especially tough, I know approx 10 -15 Watch guys in my local area and not one would buy a desirable Rolex from a Grey ...Never. Period. They just wait there turn and pay MSRP, no one in their right mind would pay double for a New Rolex.

IMHO.

[WatchLurv]

Originally Posted by Mystro

^^^^Required understanding for all the Newbies^^^. He is spot on.

Life isn’t fair and we don’t live in a socialist economy when it comes to luxury watches. Understanding the game makes it far less scary.

I hate reading about "grey dealers this, grey dealers that" on here. People on here either joined the watch game late or have a memory worse than a goldfish. We go back just 3 years ago and everyone was enjoying some sort of discount on a SS watch.

Originally Posted by Explorer2polar

I have not experienced this China syndrome so cannot comment on the Honk Kong market,

I know this is not entirely representative but I have two moderate size UK Grey Rolex dealers close to me and they are both on their knees with crippling debt.

The Rolex market is especially tough, I know approx 10 -15 Watch guys in my local area and not one would buy a desirable Rolex from a Grey ...Never. Period. They just wait there turn and pay MSRP, no one in their right mind would pay double for a New Rolex.

IMHO.

Hong Kong has 30+ ADs in a space smaller than London. That should give you an idea why it is the epicenter for the grey market of watches. The prices are "set" out here since the "flow" of watches go this way.

Many dealers took a hit. I know a few who took a 6 figure hit (in GBP) from this decrease since the protests started. They were however up 5-6 figures every month for the period where the tide rose (and that was a long time). Your 2 UK dealers just haven't been able to do their maths correctly or know when to cut losses. If you're still sitting on stock of a 20K White Daytona then you're clearly doomed. That should have been sold off months ago.

[HogwldFLTR]

The watch market has a long way to go before I'm interested again in SS Rolexes. It may be slipping but until there's an advantage in cost on buying through greys it's no go.

[Pesto628]

Originally Posted by Mystro

We are in a bubble here on this forum. To the rest of the world and especially the affluent, they are just catching on that a ”Rolex” is fashionable and in vogue like the 1980’s. The trouble is unlike the 1980‘s they can’t just go into a dealer to buy one. Most people don’t have watch connections and will just Google a source and this is why paying a inflated price is not a real factor. Look at the mark-up on a quality diamond. The premium on a Rolex is nothing and that is how it will be justified. Rolex is a luxury item targeted to that demographic way of thinking.

You start buying a luxury item out of financial context for what ever reason and you start to see a primary focus on price points and not the actual product. This is the dichotomy of the enthusiast and the luxury brand image that Rolex markets to and its primary buying demographic.

If you are a “enthusiast” then this is the “Rolex baggage” we use to speak of all the time on this forum. Today the new influx of commodity traders have blurred the lines so now enthusiast either don’t get a watch or have to pay beyond their comfort zone on a luxury item that is clearly moving more upscale than it was years back.

Totally agree TRF is a bubble. In the “real world” not one of my friends is even aware of any kind of SS unavailability. I would bet that most if not all of them would be uninterested in acquiring a SS Daytona at retail; They simply don’t know they can sell it for double what they paid.

As it’s been mentioned many times over these models are not limited edition. As Rolex continues to produce, more customers will get. There is still a finite number of people willing to pay a markup let alone retail.


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[Ian Macdermott]

Originally Posted by Magicmerlin

Bought a Bat from a recommend grey 2 weeks ago. Whilst I was there the grey sold 2 Dayton to a mainlander (China) as I chatted to him he said they were presents to someone back home. Paid in cash! & was given £500 off each watch.

What kind of Bat, pipistrelle, serontine, baseball.

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by Ian Macdermott

What kind of Bat, pipistrelle, serontine, baseball.

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by WatchLurv

I hate reading about "grey dealers this, grey dealers that" on here. People on here either joined the watch game late or have a memory worse than a goldfish. We go back just 3 years ago and everyone was enjoying some sort of discount on a SS watch.
.

Newbies are frustrated and they have to blame someone as it’s easier to vilify in a circumstance they have no control over or even understand.

This is why half the threads on the subject the last year are white noise or free public therapy.

[jitdc]

Personally I have not noticed a drop in price, and I've been watching pretty closely trying to decide if I should buy the Sub I want now or wait on my AD. Being new to the brand it took a little while to get my bearings on retail pricing and market values. So far though I haven't read any posts where someone comes out to say that they paid full grey asking price for a Daytona or Hulk etc. Even if they did then so be it, that was the value they placed on the item they wanted.

IMHO, as far as the sales go on WF for example, it appears like they set the Ask price very high and the "sale" is bringing it back towards the common Bid. Not really a true sale or sign that the bottom will fall out of the market. After all we don't have access to what the true sale price is or if there is a bundle of some kind where the buyer gets a steeper discount on a different watch etc. As I mentioned before though, I'm new here and could very easily be completely wrong.

[Explorer2polar]

Originally Posted by jitdc

Personally I have not noticed a drop in price, and I've been watching pretty closely trying to decide if I should buy the Sub I want now or wait on my AD. Being new to the brand it took a little while to get my bearings on retail pricing and market values. So far though I haven't read any posts where someone comes out to say that they paid full grey asking price for a Daytona or Hulk etc. Even if they did then so be it, that was the value they placed on the item they wanted.

IMHO, as far as the sales go on WF for example, it appears like they set the Ask price very high and the "sale" is bringing it back towards the common Bid. Not really a true sale or sign that the bottom will fall out of the market. After all we don't have access to what the true sale price is or if there is a bundle of some kind where the buyer gets a steeper discount on a different watch etc. As I mentioned before though, I'm new here and could very easily be completely wrong.

My free advice, wait for your Sub from an AD, chances are they maybe a revised Sub next year? everyone will want to jump on the new one and the older outgoing model may be easy to find.

Good luck thou.

[Vamp]

I’ll say it again. Americans and Europeans where never the market. EVER! It was 99% Chinese that made the market the way it was. Euros and Mercians barely moved the ticker when the watch game was flying high. I see no bottom in sight.