Talking Stocks 2.0

[huncho]

Originally Posted by BraveBold

These two moves are based on proposed tariff policies and the big increase in inflation those policies would cause.

There is also a (lesser but still meaningful) impact from fiscal spend / tax policy assumptions…

BTC of course is also impacted by… “policy” support espoused for crypto.

yeah the btc move makes sense because it's been making big moves tied to his odds changing ever since the summer. the rest of it is an interesting response

[BraveBold]

Originally Posted by Krash

I always thought people invest in TLT if they think interest rates are rising. If they think interest rates are going down, they dump it.

But I generally stay away from TLT anyway. I stick with equities, and thank goodness for that.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Okay, but your understanding is incorrect.

[Krash]

Originally Posted by BraveBold

Okay, but your understanding is incorrect.

I’ll ask my financial advisor what he thinks. I have a great deal of trust in him, and for good reason.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[7sins]

Originally Posted by Krash

I’ll ask my financial advisor what he thinks. I have a great deal of trust in him, and for good reason.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You might be confusing TLT with TBT, the latter is used to profit from rising rates on the 20YR. The former appreciates when yields decline on the 20YR. Look at today, yields moved ~15bp higher across the curve, TLT was negative and TBT positive - rate movements are inversely related to bond prices, yields move higher and prices lower.

Originally Posted by BraveBold

No, this is an inflation and tax policy move. Re-read my post.

Edit: I will elaborate briefly here, since I realize this isn’t an econ / finance forum.

* First, the reaction is a combination of the Trump win AND strength in governing ability (re: Senate, etc)
* Trump corp tax policy is significantly more favorable to large companies vs Harris. The tax impact has a meaningful instantaneous impact on projected after-tax cash flows that in turn drive corporate valuations.
* At the same time, tariff policy is a major supply shifter for domestic consumers and pricing power for certain companies - so consider this a shift in value from consumers to corporates and from a deflationary influence from import competition to an inflationary one. This is neutral to positive for companies defended by tariffs and of course highly inflationary to consumers
* higher inflation portends a more hawkish Fed - this explains a stronger USD and the spike higher in yields
* the tax cuts of course drive a higher fiscal deficit and that in turn also is negative for bonds - as it suggests more supply to fund the deficit spending

Because these changes may be considered persistent, it is impacting the yield curve in longer-dated bonds in addition to nearer part of the curve.

Hopefully the tariff policy is more logical and doesn’t cause an inflation surge as expected…

Nailed it, great explanation. This coupled with stronger than economic data recently is causing the yield curve to re-price less future rate cuts and is why we saw rates rising weeks before the election, I believe we went from projected 10 rate cuts by the end of next year now down to 6. Will have to wait until Dec for a revised FED dot plot to see where we stand.

[austinp]

Two monster days in a row! LFG!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Krash]

Originally Posted by austinp

Two monster days in a row! LFG!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This is why selling any stock over the last 6 months seemed like madness to me. Selling any stock right now seems ever more ridiculous.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[huncho]

Originally Posted by Krash

This is why selling any stock over the last 6 months seemed like madness to me. Selling any stock right now seems ever more ridiculous.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

remember when everyone became an expert on the yen carry trade in september and spent a week spreading doom and gloom? lol

to be fair though, august and september were pretty scary at some points

[huncho]

anyone else riding this bitcoin wave? 9 months of absolute misery starting to be worth it. COIN 2x'ed in 6 days, MSTR 250% in 2 months (probably front running s&p inclusion). btc going completely vertical from supply shock as everyone waits for a dip

small caps posting crazy gains too, insane last 6-7 days so far

[thedak]

Originally Posted by huncho

small caps posting crazy gains too, insane last 6-7 days so far

My Entire IRA has been in DWCPF and IWM since July and I was sweating Election Night....

Not anymore.

[austinp]

Anybody have thoughts on INTU? I’ve owned it for years and it’s been a great investment for me. It’s been flat all year until the last few days. They report earnings today and I’m considering selling some to lock in the gains in fear that it may sell off after earnings. I also have been overweight for a couple years. Thanks Gents!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[BraveBold]

Fighting every fiber of my being to stay on-track with my portfolio strategy… I have stated previously my disdain and skepticism with crypto but also as a long-term holder my approach of “hold and ignore”… as a multi-factor hedge (including a hedge for foolish policy)… but at current BTC pricing, I struggle not cashing out. I won’t into details why but it is a hard hold given my expectations.

Similar struggle in some other areas… up about 600-700% on Palantir over a couple years and more recently saw my GEO holding (an election positional play) spike massively. The theme for several of these is that upside feels fully baked-in and my Buffett / value investing background is under some pressure with these positions. Seeing Buffett continue to increase his cash position is also difficult to ignore.

That said, I often appreciate the psychological / ego hedge too ;-)

[huncho]

Originally Posted by BraveBold

Fighting every fiber of my being to stay on-track with my portfolio strategy… I have stated previously my disdain and skepticism with crypto but also as a long-term holder my approach of “hold and ignore”… as a multi-factor hedge (including a hedge for foolish policy)… but at current BTC pricing, I struggle not cashing out. I won’t into details why but it is a hard hold given my expectations.

Similar struggle in some other areas… up about 600-700% on Palantir over a couple years and more recently saw my GEO holding (an election positional play) spike massively. The theme for several of these is that upside feels fully baked-in and my Buffett / value investing background is under some pressure with these positions. Seeing Buffett continue to increase his cash position is also difficult to ignore.

That said, I often appreciate the psychological / ego hedge too ;-)

btc is my biggest holding and i'm just riding it out for the next 5-10 years. i don't own any other crypto besides a bit of eth as everything other than bitcoin is a scam imo. are you generally bearish on bitcoin and all crypto as a whole or just everything outside of bitcoin?

[BraveBold]

Originally Posted by huncho

btc is my biggest holding and i'm just riding it out for the next 5-10 years. i don't own any other crypto besides a bit of eth as everything other than bitcoin is a scam imo. are you generally bearish on bitcoin and all crypto as a whole or just everything outside of bitcoin?

My two holdings are ETH and BTC.

I have views on valuation, types of holders, implications on wealth transfer and concentration, societal and environmental impacts, etc. My reason to continue holding despite the net result of my views (that it is closer to “rat poison” than it is to some financial panacea) is because I don’t expect sound policy decisions to necessarily prevail, nor can I predict how far or how long a speculative bubble could go…

Or, I could be incorrect.

[Krash]

NVDA earnings announcement today. I have to be honest here, I was bracing for a pretty big pullback here. The stock had a nice run pre and post election, and I expected it to drop as many as $10 to $15 per share after the earnings announcement.

But it’s only down a tiny bit, virtually unchanged. So that’s good I guess…





Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Flex368]

Originally Posted by Krash

I have to be honest here, I was bracing for a pretty big pullback here.

I was also expecting some significant move either way after the earnings report.

[ButtButt]

Originally Posted by BraveBold

Fighting every fiber of my being to stay on-track with my portfolio strategy… I have stated previously my disdain and skepticism with crypto but also as a long-term holder my approach of “hold and ignore”… as a multi-factor hedge (including a hedge for foolish policy)… but at current BTC pricing, I struggle not cashing out. I won’t into details why but it is a hard hold given my expectations.

Similar struggle in some other areas… up about 600-700% on Palantir over a couple years and more recently saw my GEO holding (an election positional play) spike massively. The theme for several of these is that upside feels fully baked-in and my Buffett / value investing background is under some pressure with these positions. Seeing Buffett continue to increase his cash position is also difficult to ignore.

That said, I often appreciate the psychological / ego hedge too ;-)

I feel the same way. Got into BTC when it was in the $1,000+ range and ETH when it was in the $100+ range. Just accumulated as much as I could and dumped it all in an offline wallet and forgot about it. It's been a wild ride but at current prices it is super tempting to sell.

Same for NVDA, my first purchase was 20 something years ago when I was still in college... seriously beginning to feel like it might be time to dump everything.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by ButtButt

I feel the same way. Got into BTC when it was in the $1,000+ range and ETH when it was in the $100+ range. Just accumulated as much as I could and dumped it all in an offline wallet and forgot about it. It's been a wild ride but at current prices it is super tempting to sell.

Same for NVDA, my first purchase was 20 something years ago when I was still in college... seriously beginning to feel like it might be time to dump everything.

yeah looking like 100k is coming any minute now. actually gonna be surreal to see that number. i didn't get in as low as you but around 3-8k in 2019. also did the same as you and threw it in a wallet so i don't look at the balance because otherwise there's no way to ride it out

[Krash]

Could you imagine buying $10,000 worth of Bitcoin when it was at parity with the US Dollar and holding it until now.

$1,000,000,000


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[huncho]

Originally Posted by Krash

Could you imagine buying $10,000 worth of Bitcoin when it was at parity with the US Dollar and holding it until now.

$1,000,000,000


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

yeah but no one would hold that long, its easy to look at it today and think its a good investment but even 5 years ago it still had probably like a 50% chance of just dying lol

[Krash]

Originally Posted by huncho

yeah but no one would hold that long, its easy to look at it today and think its a good investment but even 5 years ago it still had probably like a 50% chance of just dying lol

Yeah, you’re right. I probably would have dumped it years and years ago when it would have been worth around a $million.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ButtButt]

Yeah I would have sold at 500m lol. 5 years ago I still looked at it as a lottery play, I can make a lot or it can be worth nothing in a few years and I'd be ok with that.

It was hard enough holding back then when the values would do multiples in a few days and then crash back down 70-80% in a week or two. That's part of the reason I decided to just stash it away and not look at it again, my heart couldn't take it.

[RichardBartlett]

BTC nearing the 100k barrier.

Had a bad experience with BTC so lost everything there, so Most of my 'eggs' are in the XRP basket which I've held for 3+ years and it's actually returning + now after being in the negative pretty much ever since..

I also hold a number of small speculative ones but most are way down and remain stubbornly low. However, I'm a small time investor so unless XRP goes to 1 trillion I'm at best going to be just slightly less poor rather than mega rich

However, my partner is a real gung ho girl who put a lot of money in crypto and her 'unrealized profit' is going up in leaps and bounds so I'm hanging onto her for dear life!!

[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by RichardBartlett

BTC nearing the 100k barrier.

Had a bad experience with BTC so lost everything there, so Most of my 'eggs' are in the XRP basket which I've held for 3+ years and it's actually returning + now after being in the negative pretty much ever since..

I also hold a number of small speculative ones but most are way down and remain stubbornly low. However, I'm a small time investor so unless XRP goes to 1 trillion I'm at best going to be just slightly less poor rather than mega rich

However, my partner is a real gung ho girl who put a lot of money in crypto and her 'unrealized profit' is going up in leaps and bounds so I'm hanging onto her for dear life!!

I've been in BTC 3 times. The 2017 run up where I sold it all at $15k (tripling my small investment); got in again right before the 2020 halving for a doubling, and back in early 2024. After tripling again, I sold almost all of it 2 weeks ago when it hit 92k. I kept a small amount just to see if it will really make that big pop to 200k that so many are predicting this round.

Otherwise, the vast majority of my investments are split into 2 groups: 1: SPY; and 2: Buffett's 5 largest holdings. I adjust them quarterly.

[RichardBartlett]

Originally Posted by Doc Savage

I've been in BTC 3 times. The 2017 run up where I sold it all at $15k (tripling my small investment); got in again right before the 2020 halving for a doubling, and back in early 2024. After tripling again, I sold almost all of it 2 weeks ago when it hit 92k. I kept a small amount just to see if it will really make that big pop to 200k that so many are predicting this round.

Otherwise, the vast majority of my investments are split into 2 groups: 1: SPY; and 2: Buffett's 5 largest holdings. I adjust them quarterly.

I thought WB was offloading?

[Krash]

Originally Posted by RichardBartlett

I thought WB was offloading?

Yes. He was offloading because he thought there would be a different outcome earlier this month. The value of the S&P 500 swings massively one way or the other depending upon corporate tax rate (15% vs 28%).

BAC was one of the companies he was dumping. But that stock has soared the last 3 weeks. Bank stocks in particular benefit from less regulation and lower tax rates. The chart doesn’t lie.





Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[BroncoOne]

Originally Posted by RichardBartlett

I thought WB was offloading?

While only Buffet knows why he does what he does, he had mentioned taxes and if Harris won and the Congress went blue, there were promises of large tax increases so it made sense to realize large profits in 2024

While that don’t happen and Congress is likely to extend the existing lower tax taxes by reconciliation, and the president will sign the law, Buffet took massive profits. Never a bad move.

Also, Berkshire has a completely different investment thesis than nearly anyone else. When you inject that much capital into anything, it moves the market and changes that company. Also, to do anything meaningful in terms of generating returns like BRK historically has, Buffet needs to find something that most others don’t see. He has said that there isn’t anything like that out there right now, but who knows what he is considering.

[RichardBartlett]

I see XRP is pumping hard.. Has someone heard something I wonder?

[Thomas.E.Magnum]

Originally Posted by huncho

btc is my biggest holding and i'm just riding it out for the next 5-10 years. i don't own any other crypto besides a bit of eth as everything other than bitcoin is a scam imo. are you generally bearish on bitcoin and all crypto as a whole or just everything outside of bitcoin?

Only two assets have gained value beyond that of global liquidity, and that's BTC and Tech. Everything else has lost ground to the money printer.

The only way I will end my two asset portfolio of growth/tech and BTC is if we somehow return to a sane world where we aren't printing 1T every 90 days.

Not holding my breath.

[huncho]

finally happened. Powell's comments on it being digital gold today was the final catalyst

[superdog]

Originally Posted by huncho

finally happened. Powell's comments on it being digital gold today was the final catalyst

Glad I bought Ibit when I did. No gains like you guys, but I’m pretty happy being up 54% at the moment.