My plan for Rolex unavailability

[Bt122]

I think it’s great to invest and wait and all but... I thought I read that Rolex makes 800,000 watches per year. If u factor in population growth globally and rising middle class, I’m not sure that the market be sloppy enough...

Also Asians have a lot of money... the rolex’s Are now 15%-20% cheaper for them due to currency.

There’s an entire world outside of the USA...

Just saying

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Vetracer

"The most desirable items". And yes, I'm referring to the list price.

Yeah, I agree to a point. Reason being, one could say that 'all SS Rolex models' are super desirable right now. However, if/when recession comes, people are on something else if they think a regular Sub is still going to be pulling a premium. Especially when you factor in that the majority of these SS Rolex sales are by the middle class, not the upper echelon who isn't affected by a recession.

When the market is good, it's like many people (not insinuating yourself) completely forget what a bad market is like. A normal guy/gal isn't walking into the Rolex AD anymore, those funds are being allocated elsewhere.

[hbombkid]

I applaud you for saving, but just betting on a recession to buy a Rolex hmmm

If you are doing it for other reasons than buying a watch good call. Nothing wrong with buying low and selling high.

[Bt122]

Or you could buy high sell higher.

[jrs146]

Originally Posted by BillA

Interesting strategy.
If interest rates continue to climb, bond prices go down.

Originally Posted by beshannon

Waiting is good, however rates are rising, bonds are not the place to be.

Good luck!

This is a good point. Remember, just because it might be a highly rated bond doesn’t mean you will get par value if you don’t hold until maturity. You may want to consider a very short duration bond. However for the extra risk perhaps just throwing it in a high yield savings account would be the safest move. Some of those HY accounts are paying around 1.65% and it’s fdic insured


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[red1108nyc]

Money market funds in U.S. is 1.65 yield now and probably get to 2.25% ball park by year end. Positive real rate without interest rate risk sounds fantastic to me after decade of Zero interest rate policy.

[gregmoeck]

Prices won’t go down

[DantonIzzo]

Folks OP here. Several things. First, I’m not looking to make money off the market on the 20k bond. Second this is a watch fund and I have plenty of money invested in multiple ways. Third I’m not looking for prices to drop, I’m talking about availability at AD at MSRP. Finally, watch is a hobby and I’m not looking to buy watches as an investment.

In any event I created the thread semi jokingly, but my point is that I’m just gonna wait until they are available.

[Starwalker]

What if the municipality goes bankrupt?

[DoctorA]

Originally Posted by DantonIzzo

Staching 20k away in muni bond and wait for the recession to hit. When folks stop buying because recession that’s when I’ll strike!

As much as I think you’re right, I hope you’re wrong

[JR16]

Originally Posted by DantonIzzo

Folks OP here. Several things. First, I’m not looking to make money off the market on the 20k bond. Second this is a watch fund and I have plenty of money invested in multiple ways. Third I’m not looking for prices to drop, I’m talking about availability at AD at MSRP. Finally, watch is a hobby and I’m not looking to buy watches as an investment.

In any event I created the thread semi jokingly, but my point is that I’m just gonna wait until they are available.

Ha, I figured as much ! It’s the thought / concept that counts- if you aren’t desperate for a watch, stick your money in a safe place and wait until this current cycle of feeding frenzy dies down (though I would go more liquid- high yield savings or CD- can get one year CD at 2.05% now in US, prob will be a little higher later in the year)- sound reasoning hard to dispute


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[SMD]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Waiting is good, however rates are rising, bonds are not the place to be.

Good luck!

Especially munis given the sad state of financial affairs of many, many municipalities.

[Frank51]

Originally Posted by DantonIzzo

Folks OP here. Several things. First, I’m not looking to make money off the market on the 20k bond. Second this is a watch fund and I have plenty of money invested in multiple ways. Third I’m not looking for prices to drop, I’m talking about availability at AD at MSRP. Finally, watch is a hobby and I’m not looking to buy watches as an investment.

In any event I created the thread semi jokingly, but my point is that I’m just gonna wait until they are available.

Exactly, its the perception that matters, once recession occurs and people's stock portfolio takes a hit then a lot of people may not be as comfortable dropping 12K on a watch, less demand, shorter or non-existent wait lists.

[erhein]

Every January 1, I predict that Rolex prices will plummet. One of these years I’ll be called a genius.

[lucevan le stelle]

Originally Posted by Vetracer

From my experience of the last three big recessions, luxury goods that are desirable, don't get discounted in a recession. Manufacturers just cut back production and buy-back and mothball existing stock until good times return.

Based on my experience of previous recessions, I was never able to get a discount on:

- The most desirable cars (we're not talking super-cars or hyper-cars here, just your top end German sports cars). The most I'd receive were discounted options in the case of a car purchase.

- The most desirable watches. The most I'd receive were extra leather watch rolls or discounts on PM models.

Property prices seem to be where the biggest discounts can be had although, prices just before a recession are massively inflated anyway.


Next recession, the Grey Market prices will reduce somewhat as they struggle to stay alive but you'll still pay at least list price for the most desirable watches in my opinion.

Great post and very on point. Most do not make out as well as they think they will with planning to profit on a recession. The ones who might are the ones that write the books on how to do it, which the other prospective profiteers purchase.

[brandrea]

If you can predict when the next recession will hit, please let me know . I’d rather put my money to work in the market.