The WAY too quick 2019 reaction by BDL

[BDL]

Like many of you I was wrapped up in the hype of yesterday's whirlwind of if the leaks were true or not. Like all discourse on the internet, it quick devolved into taking sides and digging in.

Could there really be bigger watches? I was completely expecting the trend back to 36mm. A 2-tone Sea Dweller and a meteorite GMT seemed outright ridiculous.

But here we are, with unicorns prancing among us, welcome to Baselworld 2019.

My 2 cents for what it is worth:

Rolex moved to its furthest point of being a tool watch. The new Sea-Dweller and Meteorite GMT seem best suited for raising PGA trophies, and that might be the closest we get to one anyway.

The new WG Yachtmaster seems to be Rolex taking a swing at the Aquanaut. Rubber strap, thinner case than the Sub and in a precious metal give sales folks in ADs that have years-long waitlists for Aquanauts to pitch the YM to their clients. I am willing to bet this is a STUNNING watch in the metal when you can feel the weight. The dial is also about a legible as Rolex has ever made. I am a sucker for that.

The BLNR on jubilee makes a ton of sense from a manufacturing practices standpoint. High-end manufacturers have to take advantage of already existing technology, tooling, and parts already in inventory. The new BLNR takes all the investment made for last year's BLRO release and what I would guess is a home for the inventory and R&D costs in the BLNR bezel. Making those bezels was not cheap and Rolex has to keep the bezel alive to recover R&D costs.

Short term I think you will see a dive in the "old" BLNR pricing that was being driven up with the thinking it would be eliminated. In 20 years, hardcore collectors will likely prefer the oyster release if the overall production numbers of the BLNR bezel is smaller in oyster. Supply and Demand always wins in the end.

Quietly, the 36mm oystersteel Datejust is my pick of the liter. The new movement is amazing, and it is the one watch you can A) actually buy from and AD and B) put on your wrist and wear to in just about every occasion, enjoy and pass along to the next generation. Scratches and all.

[chloebear]

Spot on. I pretty much agree across the board. I posted another thread on it, but I feel like the new YM just ruled out a ceramic bezel Explorer II in 2021.

[peterpl]

I agree with 100% of what your saying. Logical and makes sense.

Its a business and Rolex are in it to make money and cut manufacturing costs or at least utilize and get the most out of their R&D.

[SoCal_Batman]

Very well said !

[brandrea]

Well I’ve had to eat Crow by judging before seeing a reference ... and ended up owning a couple that I was critical of before seeing.

Having said that, the only thing that even remotely interestes me is the YM2 this year.

I guess there’s always next year. In the meantime, it’s sure mking that Panerai 372 or 424 more and more interesting

[DP63]

Originally Posted by BDL

Like many of you I was wrapped up in the hype of yesterday's whirlwind of if the leaks were true or not. Like all discourse on the internet, it quick devolved into taking sides and digging in.

Could there really be bigger watches? I was completely expecting the trend back to 36mm. A 2-tone Sea Dweller and a meteorite GMT seemed outright ridiculous.

But here we are, with unicorns prancing among us, welcome to Baselworld 2019.

My 2 cents for what it is worth:

Rolex moved to its furthest point of being a tool watch. The new Sea-Dweller and Meteorite GMT seem best suited for raising PGA trophies, and that might be the closest we get to one anyway.

The new WG Yachtmaster seems to be Rolex taking a swing at the Aquanaut. Rubber strap, thinner case than the Sub and in a precious metal give sales folks in ADs that have years-long waitlists for Aquanauts to pitch the YM to their clients. I am willing to bet this is a STUNNING watch in the metal when you can feel the weight. The dial is also about a legible as Rolex has ever made. I am a sucker for that.

The BLNR on jubilee makes a ton of sense from a manufacturing practices standpoint. High-end manufacturers have to take advantage of already existing technology, tooling, and parts already in inventory. The new BLNR takes all the investment made for last year's BLRO release and what I would guess is a home for the inventory and R&D costs in the BLNR bezel. Making those bezels was not cheap and Rolex has to keep the bezel alive to recover R&D costs.

Short term I think you will see a dive in the "old" BLNR pricing that was being driven up with the thinking it would be eliminated. In 20 years, hardcore collectors will likely prefer the oyster release if the overall production numbers of the BLNR bezel is smaller in oyster. Supply and Demand always wins in the end.

Quietly, the 36mm oystersteel Datejust is my pick of the liter. The new movement is amazing, and it is the one watch you can A) actually buy from and AD and B) put on your wrist and wear to in just about every occasion, enjoy and pass along to the next generation. Scratches and all.

Great post.

I think it was an obvious choice for the BLNR to go to a jubilee after last year's success with the Pepsi ... I didnt predict it, granted, but from a marketing perspective its makes sense to seperate the sport series a little ... or a lot, depending on your take. Personally, I hope there are more available now that things are in place at the plant.

The rest of the new releases will be out of my price range, so I'm also hoping the speculators and VVIP's turn their focus on those.

As for the 36mm DJ ... its always been a winner for me and imho should be in everyones collection at some point.

[padi56]

Originally Posted by BDL

Like many of you I was wrapped up in the hype of yesterday's whirlwind of if the leaks were true or not. Like all discourse on the internet, it quick devolved into taking sides and digging in.

Could there really be bigger watches? I was completely expecting the trend back to 36mm. A 2-tone Sea Dweller and a meteorite GMT seemed outright ridiculous.

But here we are, with unicorns prancing among us, welcome to Baselworld 2019.

My 2 cents for what it is worth:

Rolex moved to its furthest point of being a tool watch. The new Sea-Dweller and Meteorite GMT seem best suited for raising PGA trophies, and that might be the closest we get to one anyway.

The new WG Yachtmaster seems to be Rolex taking a swing at the Aquanaut. Rubber strap, thinner case than the Sub and in a precious metal give sales folks in ADs that have years-long waitlists for Aquanauts to pitch the YM to their clients. I am willing to bet this is a STUNNING watch in the metal when you can feel the weight. The dial is also about a legible as Rolex has ever made. I am a sucker for that.

The BLNR on jubilee makes a ton of sense from a manufacturing practices standpoint. High-end manufacturers have to take advantage of already existing technology, tooling, and parts already in inventory. The new BLNR takes all the investment made for last year's BLRO release and what I would guess is a home for the inventory and R&D costs in the BLNR bezel. Making those bezels was not cheap and Rolex has to keep the bezel alive to recover R&D costs.

Short term I think you will see a dive in the "old" BLNR pricing that was being driven up with the thinking it would be eliminated. In 20 years, hardcore collectors will likely prefer the oyster release if the overall production numbers of the BLNR bezel is smaller in oyster. Supply and Demand always wins in the end.

Quietly, the 36mm oystersteel Datejust is my pick of the liter. The new movement is amazing, and it is the one watch you can A) actually buy from and AD and B) put on your wrist and wear to in just about every occasion, enjoy and pass along to the next generation. Scratches and all.

Afraid my hype days over Basel are long gone with so many disappointments with Rolex over the past 10-20 years.In the real world only around 5 or 6 completely new models over those years, the rest just cosmetically changed old ones.

[Mystro]

The reality is that the DJ are very popular in the real world out side the forum bubble. This forum chooses to only see the reality within. In my travels, I notice the DJ as the overwhelming Rolex model.
I am actually pleased last years watches excited me enough to buy one. That never happens.

[ocwatching]

good fair analysis...but I just wished they offered the black LN on oyster...

[DramaTurtle]

The part about Rolex never having been further from their tool watch roots is too true. Five digit or die.

[jaySL350]

Well,,,
I am very happy with a new 36mm,,,
At least we will be able to buy this ref',,
At the moment it feels a big disappointment when compared to last year,,,

[DramaTurtle]

Originally Posted by BDL

Rolex moved to its furthest point of being a tool watch. The new Sea-Dweller and Meteorite GMT seem best suited for raising PGA trophies, and that might be the closest we get to one anyway.

I need to call additional attention to this statement. The truth hurts.

Edit: Sigged.

[rolexryan329]

"oh honey, before we dive 4000ft into the atlantic, could you please fetch me my two tone SD?"

very clearly, Rolex wants to capitalize on making their biggest and best watches more expensive and flashy. I'm certain it will look great on athletes and rappers alike

[strafer_kid]

Originally Posted by BDL

Like many of you I was wrapped up in the hype of yesterday's whirlwind of if the leaks were true or not. Like all discourse on the internet, it quick devolved into taking sides and digging in.

Could there really be bigger watches? I was completely expecting the trend back to 36mm. A 2-tone Sea Dweller and a meteorite GMT seemed outright ridiculous.

But here we are, with unicorns prancing among us, welcome to Baselworld 2019.

My 2 cents for what it is worth:

Rolex moved to its furthest point of being a tool watch. The new Sea-Dweller and Meteorite GMT seem best suited for raising PGA trophies, and that might be the closest we get to one anyway.

The new WG Yachtmaster seems to be Rolex taking a swing at the Aquanaut. Rubber strap, thinner case than the Sub and in a precious metal give sales folks in ADs that have years-long waitlists for Aquanauts to pitch the YM to their clients. I am willing to bet this is a STUNNING watch in the metal when you can feel the weight. The dial is also about a legible as Rolex has ever made. I am a sucker for that.

The BLNR on jubilee makes a ton of sense from a manufacturing practices standpoint. High-end manufacturers have to take advantage of already existing technology, tooling, and parts already in inventory. The new BLNR takes all the investment made for last year's BLRO release and what I would guess is a home for the inventory and R&D costs in the BLNR bezel. Making those bezels was not cheap and Rolex has to keep the bezel alive to recover R&D costs.

Short term I think you will see a dive in the "old" BLNR pricing that was being driven up with the thinking it would be eliminated. In 20 years, hardcore collectors will likely prefer the oyster release if the overall production numbers of the BLNR bezel is smaller in oyster. Supply and Demand always wins in the end.

Quietly, the 36mm oystersteel Datejust is my pick of the liter. The new movement is amazing, and it is the one watch you can A) actually buy from and AD and B) put on your wrist and wear to in just about every occasion, enjoy and pass along to the next generation. Scratches and all.

Would agree as regards the toolwatch and Rolex getting a return on their previous investments. I think Rolex have been increasingly moving away from the toolwatch in recent years with Tudor 'picking up the baton'. They are also apparently intent on maximising a return on the Ceramic bezels. Of the bunch, I would go for the WG Yachtmaster!

[jaySL350]

I would go for the blue dial GMT on oyster as well as a new 36mm,,,,

[JePro]

Originally Posted by BDL

Quietly, the 36mm oystersteel Datejust is my pick of the liter. The new movement is amazing, and it is the one watch you can A) actually buy from and AD and B) put on your wrist and wear to in just about every occasion, enjoy and pass along to the next generation. Scratches and all.

100% Agree with you on this one!

[Stew7]

Agree with the comments. It would be nice if Rolex struck some balance between their glacial pace of updates and the too frequent changes of other brands like Omega.

I don't really view them as a technology innovator in the watch game anymore like they used to be.

The past several Basel releases has definitely shifted my attention to the 5-digits.

[ap1]

Nice post

[BDL]

Originally Posted by strafer_kid

Would agree as regards the toolwatch and Rolex getting a return on their previous investments. I think Rolex have been increasingly moving away from the toolwatch in recent years with Tudor 'picking up the baton'. They are also apparently intent on maximising a return on the Ceramic bezels. Of the bunch, I would go for the WG Yachtmaster!

Spot on. Tudor's latest youtube videos show the new Tudor models being used as tools. 180-degree marketing from big brother.

[Ravager135]

Originally Posted by BDL

Like many of you I was wrapped up in the hype of yesterday's whirlwind of if the leaks were true or not. Like all discourse on the internet, it quick devolved into taking sides and digging in.

Could there really be bigger watches? I was completely expecting the trend back to 36mm. A 2-tone Sea Dweller and a meteorite GMT seemed outright ridiculous.

But here we are, with unicorns prancing among us, welcome to Baselworld 2019.

My 2 cents for what it is worth:

Rolex moved to its furthest point of being a tool watch. The new Sea-Dweller and Meteorite GMT seem best suited for raising PGA trophies, and that might be the closest we get to one anyway.

The new WG Yachtmaster seems to be Rolex taking a swing at the Aquanaut. Rubber strap, thinner case than the Sub and in a precious metal give sales folks in ADs that have years-long waitlists for Aquanauts to pitch the YM to their clients. I am willing to bet this is a STUNNING watch in the metal when you can feel the weight. The dial is also about a legible as Rolex has ever made. I am a sucker for that.

The BLNR on jubilee makes a ton of sense from a manufacturing practices standpoint. High-end manufacturers have to take advantage of already existing technology, tooling, and parts already in inventory. The new BLNR takes all the investment made for last year's BLRO release and what I would guess is a home for the inventory and R&D costs in the BLNR bezel. Making those bezels was not cheap and Rolex has to keep the bezel alive to recover R&D costs.

Short term I think you will see a dive in the "old" BLNR pricing that was being driven up with the thinking it would be eliminated. In 20 years, hardcore collectors will likely prefer the oyster release if the overall production numbers of the BLNR bezel is smaller in oyster. Supply and Demand always wins in the end.

Quietly, the 36mm oystersteel Datejust is my pick of the liter. The new movement is amazing, and it is the one watch you can A) actually buy from and AD and B) put on your wrist and wear to in just about every occasion, enjoy and pass along to the next generation. Scratches and all.

I think this is an honest and fair assessment. Rolex is trying to appeal to a broader audience and this is their way of doing so. Your comments regarding the YM are spot on. As far as the BLNR, I think it is foolish to ONLY offer this model on Jubilee. It's obviously unclear how long this will be for, but I suspect older BLNR prices will continue to hold firm rather than drop. Right now the BLNR is the ONLY GMT-Master II model you can get with a bicolor ceramic bezel on an Oyster bracelet. I am shocked they are offering nothing on Oyster any longer assuming the LN is being discontinued.

[chloebear]

Originally Posted by Mystro

The reality is that the DJ are very popular in the real world out side the forum bubble. This forum chooses to only see the reality within. In my travels, I notice the DJ as the overwhelming Rolex model.
I am actually pleased last years watches excited me enough to buy one. That never happens.

Very true Mystro. On our Spring Break trip to Santa Monica I saw a guy about my age (mid 40's) and his dad (approximately 70) both wearing 36mm DJ's. The dad's appeared to be an early 70's model and the son's was a 90's model. They both looked amazing. I really wanted to ask them about their watches but never feel quite right walking up to strangers in a restaurant asking about their watches.

[BDL]

I also wanted to add that this release could, on the bright side, open up manufacturing capacity to push out more steel sports watches already in the lineup. One can dream.

[tie219]

Good analysis, I 100% agree.

Not sure the YM will actually take too many people away from the aquanaut but it's a good alternative.

[RTG]

Great overview. 100% agree.

[jsausley]

Originally Posted by BDL

Quietly, the 36mm oystersteel Datejust is my pick of the liter. The new movement is amazing, and it is the one watch you can A) actually buy from and AD and B) put on your wrist and wear to in just about every occasion, enjoy and pass along to the next generation. Scratches and all.

I too like the steel 36mm Datejust but $8,200 is a hard price to stomach for a steel Rolex with less technology and functionality than a stainless steel Submariner Date.

I feel like Rolex (and Tudor, actually -- the brand that is releasing a $6,000 chronograph with an outsourced Breitling movement and faux gold plate) has jumped the shark a bit with prices this year but with how in-demand everything is, it's hard to blame them.

[BobDyl]

Nice write up. That Datejust at 38mm would have been a grand slam.

[watchwatcher]

You may want to consider the fact that there are as probably as many people that think that going back to 36mm is as ridiculous as you think moving away from it is.

[wfitch]

So where does Rolex land as an actual tool watch anymore? How many HEV's will ever actually allow helium to escape? How many GMT's will be on a pilots wrist?
Having actually and often raced sailboats, maybe call them mini yachts, on a 5 minute starting sequence which needs to go to the second, I can't see any use in a $27k YM. Not because it's $27k, but because watching the countdown by rotating the bezel is impossible and a great way to be OCS (false start).
Are they simply pursuing an AP customer base? Yes.
Old yacht club adage. The guy standing at the bar, with the worn jeans and faded to pink Mount Gay Rum hat, probably owns the biggest and fastest racing yacht in the fleet.

[CrossThread]

I agree with OP on all points except the BLNR price drop. I think the fact that they are discontinuing the oyster BLNR will make the gray market and used prices climb. Since there are no more going into circulation, people who prefer/demand the oyster over the jubilee will be at the mercy of the supply.

Although I might be biased because I have one.

[RTG]

Originally Posted by watchwatcher

You may want to consider the fact that there are as probably as many people that think that going back to 36mm is as ridiculous as you think moving away from it is.

When I grew up most guys wore 36mm watches and short shorts. I'm not going back to either.