Hypothesis: Rolex is about to flood the market with BLNRs and BLROs

[envuks]

Rolex has reduced variations in their GMT line up. No more TT with YG, only RG. No more YG cases or bracelets. No more black bezels. No more SS oyster bracelets.

In thinking about this, it feels like a classic simplification of product line to minimize variation and streamline manufacturing. My hypothesis is that we'll see a lot more BLNRs and BLROs in the years to come.

Thoughts?


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[GB-man]

Maybe so. Would be a good move in my opinion.

[tyler1980]

people predicted that last year with the BLRO, didn't happen.... that said, this year it does actually make sense in context of thinning out the line up.

If they actually do it, no idea, but the theory is sound

[RobearH]

Originally Posted by envuks

Rolex has reduced variations in their GMT line up. No more TT with YG, only RG. No more YG cases or bracelets. No more black bezels. No more SS oyster bracelets.

In thinking about this, it feels like a classic simplification of product line to minimize variation and streamline manufacturing. My hypothesis is that we'll see a lot more BLNRs and BLROs in the years to come.

Thoughts?


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Plausible deduction...lets hope so!

[Jim Smyth]

I hope your right and its about time! If I was a flipper or a Grey dealer I would be concerned about this. Dont want to be holding Large inventories when the music stops playing.

[jfmiii]

this was my first thought as well. time will tell. the BLRO/BLNR arent Daytonas. people arent beating down the door of ADs post-Basel like 2016 and 2018. there is a larger strategy behind a totally lackluster release. will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

[mrloneranger]

So is the new BLNR only available with a Jubilee Bracelet from now on? or can you spec it with an Oyster?

[tng11]

Makes sense, but my theory is that greys and flippers will just hoover up all of them anyways and trickle them out, so visually it looks just as rare even if supply has increased. The market just seems so manipulated these days.

I personally would welcome an increase in supply even though I own both BLNR and BLRO. Less worry in wearing them, as I know I can replace them if something bad happens to them.

[Wrist King]

You reckon the oyster on the 116622 is not long for this world ?

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[zjd168]

maybe some intangible increase supply of the BLRO/Blnr, but nowhere close to "flooding", Even the total SS GMT output equals before, please keep in mind there will be a lot more buyers to take the BLRO/BLNR who took passed on the black LN before.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by envuks

Rolex has reduced variations in their GMT line up. No more TT with YG, only RG. No more YG cases or bracelets. No more black bezels. No more SS oyster bracelets.

In thinking about this, it feels like a classic simplification of product line to minimize variation and streamline manufacturing. My hypothesis is that we'll see a lot more BLNRs and BLROs in the years to come.

Thoughts?


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I don't think they're upping any production. Rather, I think Rolex is strategically continuing to create "brand value". What I mean by that is they are driving all demand for a black (and classic 40mm sized) SS ceramic Professional model to the Submariner/Date.

I'd expect that continue for close to 5 years and then the updated Sub will come in SS. When it's all said and done the LN will equal LV in secondary market values (wherever that number ends up falling).

But Rolex will NOT allow the GMT Master to sell at a long-term premium to the Submariner in pre-owned markets. Whatever they need to do, they'll do I'd expect. And for those that think Rolex doesn't care about secondary market values, think again. The secondary market values drives "brand". If it didn't, Breitling, Omega, and other competing brands wouldn't need to worry about NIB watches being discounted so much.

Part of that long-term value is stability. So with that, why would they rush to update.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by 904VT

I don't think they're upping any production. Rather, I think Rolex is strategically continuing to create "brand value". What I mean by that is they are driving all demand for a black (and classic 40mm sized) SS ceramic Professional model to the Submariner/Date.

I'd expect that continue for close to 5 years and then the updated Sub will come in SS. When it's all said and done the LN will equal LV in secondary market values (wherever that number ends up falling).

But Rolex will NOT allow the GMT Master to sell at a long-term premium to the Submariner in pre-owned markets. Whatever they need to do, they'll do I'd expect. And for those that think Rolex doesn't care about secondary market values, think again. The secondary market values drives "brand". If it didn't, Breitling, Omega, and other competing brands wouldn't need to worry about NIB watches being discounted so much.

Part of that long-term value is stability. So with that, why would they rush to update.

I don’t see why not they’ve priced it higher to begin with

[Shlivs21]

I hope so. Maybe the 20 year waiting list I’m on will be cut down to 10 years.


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[Larry Darrell]

I don't think the Rolex supply issue is about Rolex's inability to produce enough to meet demand. It is about keeping their products a luxury item and a status symbol. I suspect that Rolex is actually moving in the opposite direction of making their watches more available. With the economy red hot (at least for those who can afford a Rolex), they are trying to make sure every thirty thousandaire doesn't start walking around with a Sub or GMT on their wrist. I suspect that when a recession hits, you will see Subs easier to obtain. But maybe not. You may be seeing Rolex move their more desirable and affordable stainless steel watches into the permanently hard to get category that has been previously reserved for the Daytona. The true status symbol Rolexes will be impossible to get stainless steel versions and cost prohibitive for most precious metal versions. Tudor will become the watch for the upper middle class, and Rolex will be for the upper, upper middle class and above.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I don’t see why not they’ve priced it higher to begin with

I meant more of a significant and meaningful premium. A few hundred dollars in either direction, I consider less. When the SD4k was selling $2k under MSRP in the secondary market, Rolex created the SD43 after a very short SD4k run. That helped solve.

This time at least imo, Rolex is setting up the Submariner LNs to run up in value for a while before a new introduction. With no Oyster option in SS for the GMT Master in LN, I think demand will skyrocket for LN Subs.

[Jmbarrack]

I mean it makes sense from a production perspective.

They're narrowing down their steel offerings to have no variation between the two pieces except for a bezel and GMT hand.

From a manufacturing pov, it's as streamlined as it can get.

[glamorama]

Originally Posted by 904VT

I meant more of a significant and meaningful premium. A few hundred dollars in either direction, I consider less. When the SD4k was selling $2k under MSRP in the secondary market, Rolex created the SD43 after a very short SD4k run. That helped solve.

This time at least imo, Rolex is setting up the Submariner LNs to run up in value for a while before a new introduction. With no Oyster option in SS for the GMT Master in LN, I think demand will skyrocket for LN Subs.

This makes sense.

I said before Bazel that I thought LN would be discontinued since people have talked about Rolex wanting to make the black bezel unique for the divers.

[mobster600]

I think within 1 year you will be able to get a BLRO and BLNR at an AD no problem

Heck you might be able to pick up both at the same time!

[Token74]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I don’t see why not they’ve priced it higher to begin with

Agree, and so they should. It’s a more complex watch, it makes sense that the GMT is priced higher. I know it doesn’t always work this way, but it’s logical.

Re the OP’s post, I can’t see why they’d flood the market with BLNR’s and BLRO’s. I can’t believe for one moment that the LN will remain discontinued. My expectation is that Rolex will relaunch the LN later this year with the new movement and likely on the jubilee bracelet. As much as people rave about the coloured bezels, the market is huge for a standard black bezel. I assume they haven’t relaunched it with the new movement at Basel because they still have some current stock that they need to sell through (either fulfilling current lists/orders or via unofficial routes), and they’d struggle to offload if they’d launched a new one. That’s just a guess though.

I assume they will then complete the lineup by adding the Coke at Basel the year after next (proper guessing now) and that will be the GMT done with for a few years.






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[Zippy+]

Flood the market and kill the brand ? Absolutely no chance , supply will remain as is and prices will go up that’s for sure.

[TimingIsEverything]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Maybe so. Would be a good move in my opinion.

I agree this would be a good move. They would likely sell all of them, then they make more and sell those too.

This is why I don't understand the "shortage". If you can make more watches and sell them, why wouldn't you?

[jb335]

Makes total sense!!!

So probably not true at all....


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[PatronMTL]

I agree.... if they can make X number of movements in a year, and eliminated 3 GMT models, you would think that would lead to an increase in availability of the jubilee models... or rolex loves the way the market is and continues to trickle inventory to create hype

i think they realize though they can only do it for so long before alienating their client base with the lack of supply

[Lifeisarolliecoaster]

Originally Posted by tng11

Makes sense, but my theory is that greys and flippers will just hoover up all of them anyways and trickle them out, so visually it looks just as rare even if supply has increased. The market just seems so manipulated these days.

I personally would welcome an increase in supply even though I own both BLNR and BLRO. Less worry in wearing them, as I know I can replace them if something bad happens to them.

A stolen BLRO and BLNR sounds like a minefield to replace from an insurance point of view in the UK. Factor in relative scarcity. An increase in production will help to alleviate this but it’s going to take some time with all the pent up demand.

[envuks]

Thanks for all the responses guy. I guess my word choice of "flood the market" wasn't the best. I simply mean there will be many more BLNR and BLRO available from ADs than today.

At a minimum, for every LN Rolex isn't making I'd expect a BLNR or BLRO to replace it. Here in the north east USA, LNs could sometimes be found in AD cases. Certainly one of the more easily available SS professional series references to find.

We'll see how it actually plays out


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[Lifeisarolliecoaster]

Originally Posted by mobster600

I think within 1 year you will be able to get a BLRO and BLNR at an AD no problem

Heck you might be able to pick up both at the same time!

The part of me that makes me think availability will be ramped up is the number of AD’s who are having significant Rolex refits/refurbishment. That must tell you something as it ain’t a cheap proposition especially if Rolex have any say in the work. The AD would probably want increase sooner than us but I think they have been told 18 months as the carrot for the refurb to pay off with the LN returning next March with the same treatment that the BLNR had this year.

[~dadam02~]

Originally Posted by envuks

At a minimum, for every LN Rolex isn't making I'd expect a BLNR or BLRO to replace it. Here in the north east USA, LNs could sometimes be found in AD cases. Certainly one of the more easily available SS professional series references to find.

Wasn't availability more to do with the time it took to sell them rather than the time taken to make them?

[Etschell]

Originally Posted by envuks

Rolex has reduced variations in their GMT line up. No more TT with YG, only RG. No more YG cases or bracelets. No more black bezels. No more SS oyster bracelets.

In thinking about this, it feels like a classic simplification of product line to minimize variation and streamline manufacturing. My hypothesis is that we'll see a lot more BLNRs and BLROs in the years to come.

Thoughts?


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could be true but if so riddle me this. the daytona comes in two dials with the same bezel and they are harder to find than waldo.

[2nastie]

Originally Posted by TimingIsEverything

This is why I don't understand the "shortage". If you can make more watches and sell them, why wouldn't you?

The only reason why they don't ramp up production is to preserve or continue to grow brand prestige.

Yes, producing 1,000,000 watches a year is considered a mass-produced product (especially to us WIS), but in the grand scheme of things, where an individual can typically purchase more than one piece a year, it isn't an outrageous amount.

Rolex survives on people thinking its rare, reliable, and retains value. As soon as you tip the scale one way or the other it could create problems.

...

In theory, by eliminating part of a product line (GMT Black + GMT TT + GMT Full Gold), it should create more supply of the other GMTs. But who knows, Rolex might move to produce more DJs and promote those products instead. We think it's broken, doesn't mean Rolex does... they are still moving more or less the same number of Professional watches but now even the DJ/DD, etc. sells. The DJ/DD lines are probably the true money makers... it's a time only watch that sells for the same if not more than a Professional line.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by Lifeisarolliecoaster

The part of me that makes me think availability will be ramped up is the number of AD’s who are having significant Rolex refits/refurbishment. That must tell you something as it ain’t a cheap proposition especially if Rolex have any say in the work. The AD would probably want increase sooner than us but I think they have been told 18 months as the carrot for the refurb to pay off with the LN returning next March with the same treatment that the BLNR had this year.

I'd bet the ADs that aren't doing refurbs may be cut in the future. Less ADs, but same production of watches make it seem like better supply