Talking Stocks 2.0

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/05/trum...ady-to-go.html

If you didn't need more good news on a Friday to pump up the stock market...

I don't know how believable it is at this point, but it seems to be "anything to get the markets to continue on up" attitude.

Difficult to resist making ban-worthy comments having read that article...

I've got mixed feelings about this rally now. It's been so easy to make money during this trough and all the signs continue to be good (AstraZeneca working in collaboration with Bill Gates to release a vaccine is big news over here) but ..... I'm still wary and mainly sat on cash apart from a few sporadic trades. I made 13% on my Aston Martin punt today which was a nice start to the weekend but somehow it seems too easy.
I remain very cautious having been "all in" throughout March and April.

[JParm]

https://www.barrons.com/articles/joh...?mod=hp_LATEST

Highlighting this article because of what he says about stocks vs. just buying indexes / etf's, which I agree with. Yes, picking your own stocks can be a bit scary for some, but picking the winners protects you better in the long-run.

[beshannon]

When I see that a company has actually produced a vaccine and that it is being distributed I will evaluate that news.

Until then, I repeat my mantra "hope is not a viable investing strategy".

[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

When I see that a company has actually produced a vaccine and that it is being distributed I will evaluate that news.

Until then, I repeat my mantra "hope is not a viable investing strategy".

Agreed with you there.

[logo]

Originally Posted by beshannon

When I see that a company has actually produced a vaccine and that it is being distributed I will evaluate that news.

Until then, I repeat my mantra "hope is not a viable investing strategy".

Nor FOMO. Discipline and sticking to the original plan is crucial when stocks sore 40% for no reason.

I think I’m getting close to the point of picking my winners and then will stop checking the market for a while. Might look to add NKE post earnings (which I suspect will not be great), and maybe a financial and leisure/entertainment stock once this pump settles, then I’ll check again in 2022.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by logo

Nor FOMO. Discipline and sticking to the original plan is crucial when stocks sore 40% for no reason.

I agree hence my earlier posts about call buying and sentiment among small investors.

[cornerstore]

Today’s jobs numbers are another pretzel statistic to muddy the waters. Likely will be revised once the numbers are baked in.
“The headline figures do not show the full picture. A broader measure of unemployment which counts workers who have given up looking for a job and part-time workers who are seeking full-time employment paints an even bleaker picture of the situation. The measure – known as U6 – was 7% in February before the pandemic hit the US. Last month ( May) it was 21.2%. “

The other assumption the US markets are making is that post crisis US companies will regain full market share. Based on anecdotal stories from around the globe those days maybe numbered. Many discussions on buy in country and buy local. Taxing these global companies in countries they make revenue is another hot button topic.

[JParm]

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/...y-listens.aspx

TIF currently at $121 with a buyout set for October at $135. I am considering taking the plunge here, as the news is that the buyout will proceed at the agreed upon price.

[cornerstore]

The revisions have started.

A theory for why the 'startling' jobs numbers conflict with the other gloomy data

“The true rate therefore is about 16%, some six percentage points higher than the peak after the crash of 2008,” he said.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/a-the...171744869.html

[scarlet knight]

Continually amazed by the stock market. Up 900 points? Well, I guess there were good employment numbers.

[cornerstore]

“ Traders are right when they say the stock market evaluates the future, not the past. Backward-looking economic data about what happened last week or last month is irrelevant to the value of stocks unless it hints at future actions, such as an unexpected change in Federal Reserve policy. But it’s hard to imagine what future stocks are evaluating right now. 2025? 2030? If so, that’s a time horizon so distant it’s almost meaningless.”


https://ca.news.yahoo.com/the-stock-...184607575.html

[JParm]

Not much of a selloff at the end today - a strong finish to a very strong week.

At this point, the outlook appears to be rosy. Still not throwing all of the funds into the market, but continuing to digest the news and chip away.

[logo]

Originally Posted by cornerstore

“ Traders are right when they say the stock market evaluates the future, not the past. Backward-looking economic data about what happened last week or last month is irrelevant to the value of stocks unless it hints at future actions, such as an unexpected change in Federal Reserve policy. But it’s hard to imagine what future stocks are evaluating right now. 2025? 2030? If so, that’s a time horizon so distant it’s almost meaningless.”


https://ca.news.yahoo.com/the-stock-...184607575.html

I agree with this. Don’t get me wrong, I ain’t no bear. But to me, when pretty much every single company has withdrawn guidance on forward looking statements, that tells me they themselves are not sure of what’s to come and that there’s a chance their underlying fundamentals change and consequently their valuation should change. I think many who are chasing this market to extremes have forgotten this and taken the run a bit too far IMO. I’m patiently waiting for a mild correction this time. If we recall end of April, it finished immensely strong too. Only to tank like mad the 2 weeks after. And With this run up, there really isn’t much of a support base so I believe there are a lot of profits on the table now just looking to be sold off. Maybe once Q2 earnings start rolling in but who knows.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by logo

I agree with this. Don’t get me wrong, I ain’t no bear. But to me, when pretty much every single company has withdrawn guidance on forward looking statements, that tells me they themselves are not sure of what’s to come and that there’s a chance their underlying fundamentals change and consequently their valuation should change. I think many who are chasing this market to extremes have forgotten this and taken the run a bit too far IMO. I’m patiently waiting for a mild correction this time. If we recall end of April, it finished immensely strong too. Only to tank like mad the 2 weeks after. And With this run up, there really isn’t much of a support base so I believe there are a lot of profits on the table now just looking to be sold off. Maybe once Q2 earnings start rolling in but who knows.

I'll caveat that with an article that I shared on guidance a couple of weeks back:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/17/pand...ltogether.html

There are a few companies that have given up on guidance altogether, as they don't view it as necessary.

Also, the rise and fall that you alluded to in April didn't have what have today - a resurgence in openings and airlines increasing flights due to near-term demand, as American Airlines just outlined for the month of July.

I'm not saying we don't have a pull back, nor am I advocating for people to throw all their money in now. We're being defensive and still holding onto the majority of the money that we had slated for a 2nd dip, however, we are buying value in small sums a the same time.

If you hold out too long, you end up missing the weeks like this one that we just had.

[77T]

If you think the market values the future, don’t forget what happens anytime quarterly results miss consensus...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[logo]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

I'll caveat that with an article that I shared on guidance a couple of weeks back:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/17/pand...ltogether.html

There are a few companies that have given up on guidance altogether, as they don't view it as necessary.

Also, the rise and fall that you alluded to in April didn't have what have today - a resurgence in openings and airlines increasing flights due to near-term demand, as American Airlines just outlined for the month of July.

I'm not saying we don't have a pull back, nor am I advocating for people to throw all their money in now. We're being defensive and still holding onto the majority of the money that we had slated for a 2nd dip, however, we are buying value in small sums a the same time.

If you hold out too long, you end up missing the weeks like this one that we just had.

All good thoughts too. I would suggest that the pull back in April was too strong even - now that things have run for a bit, I certainly wouldn’t expect a pull back to those levels, but to something a bit less stretched than current is plausible. I had mentioned a while ago that tech ran too far and everything else needed to catch up - well, now I think everything else has gone too far and it needs to settle down a bit haha. Next few weeks will be important I think.

Originally Posted by 77T

If you think the market values the future, don’t forget what happens anytime quarterly results miss consensus...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

What bugs me is that analysts revise their expected earnings so often from this covid situation. A company could have an awful balance sheet and just failing miserably but if they slightly edge out the expectation (no matter how bad the face value of the expectation actually is) the stock pumps 15% if its a green market day. Similarly, if a company meets or misses but has otherwise good fundamentals for a recovery, if the market is red it tanks hard.

[austinp]

The portfolio is at an all time high after today. Thank you to all the posters here for great information. Have a great weekend all.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[kieselguhr]

Wow! What a “recovery” for airlines!! Every single contract in the money and getting called away from me Thankfully I collected premiums weekly since April and everything got called away at a much higher price point than I bought them for.

You don’t go broke taking a profit, but holy Toledo!

[Feh]

Two months ago, I thought market bottom was going to be DJIA 14-15k. Touched 18k. Once I saw the Federal Reserve money printers go brrrrrrrrrr, I got all back in again. Nice profits. Enjoy the ride.

[sokoloka]

Originally Posted by Feh

Two months ago, I thought market bottom was going to be DJIA 14-15k. Touched 18k. Once I saw the Federal Reserve money printers go brrrrrrrrrr, I got all back in again. Nice profits. Enjoy the ride.

and brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr they did!

[watchmework]

Originally Posted by Feh

Two months ago, I thought market bottom was going to be DJIA 14-15k. Touched 18k. Once I saw the Federal Reserve money printers go brrrrrrrrrr, I got all back in again. Nice profits. Enjoy the ride.

Question is with the FOMC week coming up will it continue to go up. I sure hope so!

[cornerstore]

Originally Posted by cornerstore

Today’s jobs numbers are another pretzel statistic to muddy the waters. Likely will be revised once the numbers are baked in.
“The headline figures do not show the full picture. A broader measure of unemployment which counts workers who have given up looking for a job and part-time workers who are seeking full-time employment paints an even bleaker picture of the situation. The measure – known as U6 – was 7% in February before the pandemic hit the US. Last month ( May) it was 21.2%. “

The other assumption the US markets are making is that post crisis US companies will regain full market share. Based on anecdotal stories from around the globe those days maybe numbered. Many discussions on buy in country and buy local. Taxing these global companies in countries they make revenue is another hot button topic.

MSNBC reporting US jobs numbers 13% unemployment are being reviewed and revised by Feds to 16% today. Yesterday's numbers it appears were another example of massaging the numbers to fit a narrative.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by cornerstore

MSNBC reporting US jobs numbers 13% unemployment are being reviewed and revised by Feds to 16% today. Yesterday's numbers it appears were another example of massaging the numbers to fit a narrative.

This was mentioned in the middle of the trading day yesterday on CNBC. Had little to no effect on market outcome.

[SMD]

Originally Posted by cornerstore

Yesterday's numbers it appears were another example of massaging the numbers to fit a narrative.

No that is not what happened at all. They have been clear and transparent on this, and if anything this made the drop in unemployment even larger. So if anything the news was even better than reported.

[cornerstore]

The whole thing was a set up from the misleading headline - 2.5 million jobs created. Not created but rather regained. Now with the May adjustment to 16%, which is higher than April 14%, the whole set up smells. It might not be the 20% some expected but it is not the 13% the Fed released either that figure is a 20% under statement of the revised numbers. There are red lines and then there is this type of manipulation that erodes transparency and investor sentiment !

[watchmework]

Originally Posted by cornerstore

The whole thing was a set up from the misleading headline - 2.5 million jobs created. Not created but rather regained. Now with the May adjustment to 16%, which is higher than April 14%, the whole set up smells. It might not be the 20% some expected but it is not the 13% the Fed released either that figure is a 20% under statement of the revised numbers. There are red lines and then there is this type of manipulation that erodes transparency and investor sentiment !

If the people being furloughed we’re being reported as job losses, I would think it would only make sense to count them as new jobs when they were regained....

[cornerstore]

Originally Posted by watchmework

If the people being furloughed we’re being reported as job losses, I would think it would only make sense to count them as new jobs when they were regained....

Agreed, however it seems the furloughed people were being counted as employed in May, hence the bigger drop than expected. “The BLS also noted in its May jobs report that response rates to its surveys have been lower than usual during the pandemic, a factor that could lead to bigger revisions in the future.

By furloughed I am referring to this in the press release.
BLS, however, noted its data collectors — for the third month in a row — misclassified some workers as "employed not at work," when they should have been classified as "unemployed on temporary layoff."

[SMD]

If you are going to fudge the numbers you would think they would make them look better rather than worse.

[CoveWatch]

Originally Posted by cornerstore

The whole thing was a set up from the misleading headline - 2.5 million jobs created. Not created but rather regained. Now with the May adjustment to 16%, which is higher than April 14%, the whole set up smells. It might not be the 20% some expected but it is not the 13% the Fed released either that figure is a 20% under statement of the revised numbers. There are red lines and then there is this type of manipulation that erodes transparency and investor sentiment !

I believe the numbers were reported in a consistent manner for the past 3 months, so if you’re gonna adjust May to 16%, then adjusted April wouldn’t be 14 and would be substantially higher and would be a larger drop from April to May instead.

Originally Posted by SMD

No that is not what happened at all. They have been clear and transparent on this, and if anything this made the drop in unemployment even larger. So if anything the news was even better than reported.

[healer]

im back! thanks for all your insight everyone...im thankful someone mentioned to go all in around last week of april... turns out to be an excellent adviced;)