Talking Stocks 2.0

[HubbleNox]

Wow, those job numbers on Friday!

Also glad there wasn't a huge sellout end-of-day Friday.

Hopefully this week is just as nice.

[cornerstore]

Originally Posted by CoveWatch

I believe the numbers were reported in a consistent manner for the past 3 months, so if you’re gonna adjust May to 16%, then adjusted April wouldn’t be 14 and would be substantially higher and would be a larger drop from April to May instead.

Yes you are correct, the market has been trading on false and misleading employment data for the past three months. Makes one wonder what else has been under reported or massaged to fit a narrative at any given time.

[Dusko.Popov]

Market up big in pre-market but long way to go until morning.

I think I’m going to initiate a rather large position in aes in the morning. Anyone else included in their portfolio?

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Dusko.Popov

Market up big in pre-market but long way to go until morning.

I think I’m going to initiate a rather large position in aes in the morning. Anyone else included in their portfolio?

No, I have no interest in AES, their balance sheet and debt are unsustainable

https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AES?s=aes

[beshannon]

https://www.thestreet.com/markets/5-...-monday-060820

Futures higher on follow through, no real news, I am trimming more into this move and will sell my GILD today as merger talk would take years even if approved so I will take the pop and buy back after the reality hits.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsl...&sref=Hny5JH2p

[supernova]

Mostly Dow futures and the recovery stocks up at mo. BA up another 8% in pre-market...

[JParm]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bu...S%3D1591616413

"In our call of the day, BTIG strategists led by Julian Emanuel said that while the short-term was unclear, on a 12-month basis the S&P 500 US:SPX should move to new highs led by cyclical stocks that were beaten in the coronavirus downturn and resurgent off the bottom."

What many of us have echoed all along - no matter what we see in the interim, if you're buying for long-term holds, you should be absolutely fine.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bu...S%3D1591616413

"In our call of the day, BTIG strategists led by Julian Emanuel said that while the short-term was unclear, on a 12-month basis the S&P 500 US:SPX should move to new highs led by cyclical stocks that were beaten in the coronavirus downturn and resurgent off the bottom."

What many of us have echoed all along - no matter what we see in the interim, if you're buying for long-term holds, you should be absolutely fine.

Agreed, as far as BA yes people may make money on this stock. I am not going to chase it. There are other opportunities on my shopping list with far less risk

[supernova]

I agree BA might be a bit late now to get into with the associated risks still there, but thought it was a no brainer buy at low 100s.

[JParm]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/stoc...-mid-2001.html

Another article on where we could be going. It still could be a bumpy road ahead, but the more and more analysts seem to be pointing to the same direction.

This article goes as far as saying that we're at our most expensive and does take in earnings action, but is still bullish on the outlook.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by supernova

I agree BA might be a bit late now to get into with the associated risks still there, but thought it was a no brainer buy at low 100s.

I do not disagree with this

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/stoc...-mid-2001.html

Another article on where we could be going. It still could be a bumpy road ahead, but the more and more analysts seem to be pointing to the same direction.

This article goes as far as saying that we're at our most expensive and does take in earnings action, but is still bullish on the outlook.

Agreed, I am not chasing but would buy dips as I believe we still go higher in the next 12-18 months

[beshannon]

Rolling over here as this rally is toppy and tired.

The market needs more positive news to act as a catalyst or we could see some short term selling.

[logo]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Rolling over here as this rally is toppy and tired.

The market needs more positive news to act as a catalyst or we could see some short term selling.

I think it could use some selling to help us all re-establish a bit of a floor - things climbed so rapidly that I’m no longer confident on where my value buy points should be. Need to see DOW in the 26000 range, S&P around 3100 this week to make me a bit more of happy buyer I think but if there’s good news from the Fed that might just keep pushing the market higher. Despite my own thoughts/opinions on current prices, I might just have to re-orient my thinking that today’s prices are mostly legit. Maybe I’ll just buy Jan 2021 calls for the companies I’m more wary about.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by logo

I think it could use some selling to help us all re-establish a bit of a floor - things climbed so rapidly that I’m no longer confident on where my value buy points should be. Need to see DOW in the 26000 range, S&P around 3100 this week to make me a bit more of happy buyer I think but if there’s good news from the Fed that might just keep pushing the market higher. Despite my own thoughts/opinions on current prices, I might just have to re-orient my thinking that today’s prices are mostly legit. Maybe I’ll just buy Jan 2021 calls for the companies I’m more wary about.

I bought a few calls today for FSLY and SE, which I'm a long-term holder in as well.

Also added to AMZN and MSFT, because at this point with the tech stocks, this could be somewhat of a floor in my opinion. Everything else has risen (as they should), yet big tech has remained near these prices over the last month or so. If we have pullbacks, I do believe they will not be as affected as the airlines, banks, etc., as they have gone up very quickly to catch up to tech.

I don't mind adding to my current tech positions here for the 12-18 month outlook.

[austinp]

Anybody selling TSLA or BA here?


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[JParm]

Originally Posted by austinp

Anybody selling TSLA or BA here?


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Holding TSLA for the long haul. I sold out of BA after 30% gains last month after buying in at $100. Was happy with the sale at the time. Hindsight is 20/20, of course. Oh well, there are other stocks to make money on!

https://seekingalpha.com/article/435...nSWn0EvJYU61LU

Good article on holding vs. taking profits.

[beshannon]

Solid turn at midday near 2pm Dow +293

Broad based and orderly, I would have thought the blow off was last Friday but this continues higher

I am still watching and enjoying the rise in values even though I am worried

https://seekingalpha.com/article/435...-in-economy-is

Raising sell stops and being patient

[kearez]

Originally Posted by austinp

Anybody selling TSLA or BA here?


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Holding my BA for the long term, I was buying it down in the high 90s.

[logo]

Another day, another major short squeeze on airlines/cruise lines to close out the end of day trading. At some point, continuous 10-20% daily gains for these industries is unjustified (and IMO it was a few days ago before their valuations doubled within a week without proper news to support that).

So... any advice on striking the balance between FOMO and sitting out too long to miss good weeks in these “recovering” sectors?? Thinking call options is the right play, but those options would be a lot cheaper if share prices were more reflective of where these companies should be.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by logo

Another day, another major short squeeze on airlines/cruise lines to close out the end of day trading. At some point, continuous 10-20% daily gains for these industries is unjustified (and IMO it was a few days ago before their valuations doubled within a week without proper news to support that).

So... any advice on striking the balance between FOMO and sitting out too long to miss good weeks in these “recovering” sectors?? Thinking call options is the right play, but those options would be a lot cheaper if share prices were more reflective of where these companies should be.

I am letting my core positions rise and not buying anything else, sorry but I do not have any other advice as I believe this has run too far too fast.

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by logo

I think it could use some selling to help us all re-establish a bit of a floor - things climbed so rapidly that I’m no longer confident on where my value buy points should be. Need to see DOW in the 26000 range, S&P around 3100 this week to make me a bit more of happy buyer I think but if there’s good news from the Fed that might just keep pushing the market higher. Despite my own thoughts/opinions on current prices, I might just have to re-orient my thinking that today’s prices are mostly legit. Maybe I’ll just buy Jan 2021 calls for the companies I’m more wary about.

I keep expecting a pullback and this market keeps proving me wrong. Regretting selling around 3,050 to say the least, especially those financials! The move we've had in such a short period of time has been incredible. It's beginning to look like I've missed the ride... I think a modest pullback would be good for the sustainability of this recovery long term, but maybe it just goes straight up?

I'm also trying to figure out of these prices are sustainable or a bit optimistic in the short term.

At this rate, we'll be at new highs just in time for the fireworks on 4th of July, if not sooner.

One thing I recognize and need to work on is just buying and holding. I think I'd save myself a lot of grief.

[logo]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I am letting my core positions rise and not buying anything else, sorry but I do not have any other advice as I believe this has run too far too fast.

Thanks Brian. I agree with you, and helpful to hear that. Discipline wins the day - would rather miss out than to lose. I’ve also been letting my existing long positions run. I think a day of reckoning for the bears must be soon and will re-evaluate then.

Originally Posted by RyanO

I keep expecting a pullback and this market keeps proving me wrong. Regretting selling around 3,050 to say the least, especially those financials! The move we've had in such a short period of time has been incredible. It's beginning to look like I've missed the ride... I think a modest pullback would be good for the sustainability of this recovery long term, but maybe it just goes straight up?

I'm also trying to figure out of these prices are sustainable or a bit optimistic in the short term.

At this rate, we'll be at new highs just in time for the fireworks on 4th of July, if not sooner.

One thing I recognize and need to work on is just buying and holding. I think I'd save myself a lot of grief.

I did the same, sold much of my short term positions around 3000 and have been waiting since, dabbling here and there without much success. I can’t imagine current prices are sustainable though.

[Dusko.Popov]

Originally Posted by Dusko.Popov

Hey Brian,

Vtiq - With news today, would you still wait on the sidelines or do you feel it has Tesla potential? Every day this stock mocks me by going higher.

I’m trying to determine what invested are seeing that is driving this. Fomo? Or is there something substantive here?

Merger went through last week. Now nkla (Nikola)

I bought a few shares at $30 a share the day before the merger was consummated. As of today, after hours, it’s at $90 a share. Ran $60 a share today on what I believe to be no news. Complete fear of missing out. Following the ceo on Twitter is a hoot. Acts like Musk with his bravado and lack of convention.

This is less about nkla but rather to see what the board’s thoughts are on cnhi? They have a battery outputs agreement with nkla and also own about 10% of the company (made a 250,000 investment into vtiq back in November).

Anyone smarter than me willing to offer some thoughts?

[cornerstore]

“TD Bank predicts that the gross domestic product will plunge at an annual rate of about 40 percent in the second quarter — an epic collapse rivaled only during the Great Depression ”

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinio...ck-ncna1227771

[JParm]

Originally Posted by Dusko.Popov

Merger went through last week. Now nkla (Nikola)

I bought a few shares at $30 a share the day before the merger was consummated. As of today, after hours, it’s at $90 a share. Ran $60 a share today on what I believe to be no news. Complete fear of missing out. Following the ceo on Twitter is a hoot. Acts like Musk with his bravado and lack of convention.

This is less about nkla but rather to see what the board’s thoughts are on cnhi? They have a battery outputs agreement with nkla and also own about 10% of the company (made a 250,000 investment into vtiq back in November).

Anyone smarter than me willing to offer some thoughts?

Congrats on the NKLA play.

Don't know much about them or CNHI, but at this point, I'd be looking more towards value companies that could weather a turn south, if that were to occur.

The rally has been nice, but there seems to be a lot of FOMO buying. How else to explain MIK up 58% in one day, the airlines' consistently large move up, etc.

I do personally think we continue the march up, but I also think a few pullbacks are warranted.

[JWD531]

Originally Posted by logo

Thanks Brian. I agree with you, and helpful to hear that. Discipline wins the day - would rather miss out than to lose. I’ve also been letting my existing long positions run. I think a day of reckoning for the bears must be soon and will re-evaluate then.



I did the same, sold much of my short term positions around 3000 and have been waiting since, dabbling here and there without much success. I can’t imagine current prices are sustainable though.

I did the same after SP500 kept getting rejected at 3025 or so, let go of all the short term stuff. Started focusing back on long term, and am probably “done playing” for now. It sure was fun though. Trying not to kick myself too hard for selling NCLH and UAL too early. I bought them back at $8.40 and $23, but I don’t feel too bad since I did get a nice little return during the first half.


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[btinl]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/...y-listens.aspx

TIF currently at $121 with a buyout set for October at $135. I am considering taking the plunge here, as the news is that the buyout will proceed at the agreed upon price.

It seems like there is still concern that this deal will not go through.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by btinl

It seems like there is still concern that this deal will not go through.

Yes - TIF reports earnings this week and LVMH appears to be monitoring very closely, should they tank and present an opportunity to back out.

I'm on the sidelines for this until then.

[beshannon]

https://www.thestreet.com/markets/5-...tuesday-060920

Will be an interesting morning, a lot of news and updates to go through

https://seekingalpha.com/article/435...rally-continue

[Dusko.Popov]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Congrats on the NKLA play.

Don't know much about them or CNHI, but at this point, I'd be looking more towards value companies that could weather a turn south, if that were to occur.

The rally has been nice, but there seems to be a lot of FOMO buying. How else to explain MIK up 58% in one day, the airlines' consistently large move up, etc.

I do personally think we continue the march up, but I also think a few pullbacks are warranted.

Thanks. I’m considering averaging up. I should have went heavier when it was vtiq. But I played it speculatively and I waited until the merger was official but before it started trading under nkla (last Thursday). Never did the reverse merger thing so I tip-toed into it.

Anyway, I’ll probably dip my toes in Cnhi. Lots to like about it I think.

This morning there seems to be a pullback. Glad I have some money on the sidelines.

Im trying to focus on my dividend portfolio now - but with good values. Looking at Coca Cola. Any recommendations you have to add to my dividend portfolio that may still be a value proposition?