Talking Stocks 2.0

[JParm]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

very true. i don't buy / sell options. just never got into that.

much more of a buy and hold person unless a sell $ % threshold is met that locks in profit . kinda like w/ my watch collection.

Trust me, I'm the same way - buy stocks for the long-term and hold; can't go wrong with that.

However, I do like to play with 3-5% of our cash for buying calls. I never short / bet on the market to go down. That's a fool's errand.

[JParm]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/12/cram...d-traders.html

We've all talked about the new traders and their lack of experience (along with obscene decision-making), and here's Cramer saying Wall Street pros are taking advantage of them.

Right or wrong, Wall Street makes its money.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/12/cram...d-traders.html

We've all talked about the new traders and their lack of experience (along with obscene decision-making), and here's Cramer saying Wall Street pros are taking advantage of them.

Right or wrong, Wall Street makes its money.

Exactly

And while RH traders do not have enough money to move things much it is the sentiment that is what changes and gets people hyped

I don't mind taking their money but the extra activity just adds more noise

[beshannon]

+318 now, I would not be surprised to see a negative close

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by beshannon

+318 now, I would not be surprised to see a negative close

Thinking the same. Already a pretty significant fade.

[jtli202]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

To be honest, I'm good either way with how the market goes.

95% is long-term stocks, so dips are always welcome for re-loading on stock purchases. Mentioned this in the past, but we've got a pretty long horizon so any buying opportunities are great for us.

The other 5% are calls, so if the market rises, I'm happy there as well.

1-3-5 years from now, we'll be looking at these prices as a great time to buy.

Agree. I'm actually hoping for a market pullback as I have a lot of capital to deploy and my time horizon is 20+ years. When I see companies like MO and ABBV trading at multiples below 10x and yielding up to 8%, that's a no brainer for me.

I can't day trade anyways because my company has a policy where we have to hold securities for 30 days before selling.

[maveric]

Originally Posted by jtli202

...yielding up to 8%, that's a no brainer for me...

I thought high yielding stocks are a warning sign?

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by maveric

I thought high yielding stocks are a warning sign?

Why?

There is a huge difference between a solid company that can pay its dividend easily with their balance sheet and a company that can no longer pay like BA, GE, OXY . . .

When a solid company like ABBV trades down the yield becomes very compelling. That is one of the things I search for. ABBV yields 5.1% and has a payout ratio of 45%.

Here is a list of others that I am watching or already own

https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DOW/dividends/news

[jtli202]

Originally Posted by maveric

I thought high yielding stocks are a warning sign?

It can be, it depends if you think the yield is sustainable. For example, there were E&P companies that were yielding north of 10% a few months ago; however, it was clear that the payout was not sustainable given the industry headwinds, and sure enough they all were cut.

Regarding the 2 stocks I mentioned, Abbvie's main risk is that their drug Humira (which represents over 50% of their revenue) had its patent expire in Europe and it will expire in the US in 2023, but they just bought the company that makes Botox and their pipeline looks strong.

Altria made a bad investment in JUUL and the tobacco is a declining industry, but the Company has potential growth in the marijuana market to offset the decline. Plus its a free cash flow machine so dividends are probably sustainable.

[jtli202]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Why?

There is a huge difference between a solid company that can pay its dividend easily with their balance sheet and a company that can no longer pay like BA, GE, OXY . . .

When a solid company like ABBV trades down the yield becomes very compelling. That is one of the things I search for. ABBV yields 5.1% and has a payout ratio of 45%.

Here is a list of others that I am watching or already own

https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DOW/dividends/news

Some good names on that list. I would be cautious with some of the energy names though, even supermajors like Exxon. If I were to invest in energy it would be in pipelines. income stream is much more stable

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jtli202

Some good names on that list. I would be cautious with some of the energy names though, even supermajors like Exxon. If I were to invest in energy it would be in pipelines. income stream is much more stable

Everyone always needs to do their homework. All information to me is just a starting point and I always seek multiple sources of data.

[beshannon]

Fading into 2 pm, not surprised thought it would happen sooner, still 3/1 on the upside

I will wait until next week to see where buy levels are as I have done nothing today.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Fading into 2 pm, not surprised thought it would happen sooner, still 3/1 on the upside

I will wait until next week to see where buy levels are as I have done nothing today.

Been on the sidelines today as well.

If there is a huge selloff around close, I might nibble.

[77T]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Everyone always needs to do their homework. All information to me is just a starting point and I always seek multiple sources of data.

I agree and believe investors do that. Speculators simply move on the order flow.

The new fractional share microtraders seem to spook like a school of bait in shallow water each time a shadow crosses the surface or flock to every speck of dust that settles on it.


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[beshannon]

Originally Posted by 77T

I agree and believe investors do that. Speculators simply move on the order flow.

The new fractional share microtraders seem to spook like a school of bait in shallow water each time a shadow crosses the surface or flock to every speck of dust that settles on it.


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Agreed but this is the same old story with new tools. It used to be the pink sheets and penny stocks.

[jaisonline]

AMEN to this brother. Like most things in life, it takes hands on homework, research, hard lessons learnt, and still needs mostly LUCK!

Originally Posted by beshannon

Everyone always needs to do their homework. All information to me is just a starting point and I always seek multiple sources of data.

[77T]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Agreed but this is the same old story with new tools. It used to be the pink sheets and penny stocks.

True, but then they at least had to make a phone call and pay a fee that slowed the flow.


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[beshannon]

Originally Posted by 77T

True, but then they at least had to make a phone call and pay a fee that slowed the flow.


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Yes, which is why the action moves so fast today and why the after hours is so strange sometimes.

[JParm]

Today has been all over the place. Market can't seem to figure out what it wants to do.

[Zack21]

Can someone explain to me why NKLA is valued as high as it is. Does it's current value make sense to anyone else here?

[jaisonline]

Originally Posted by Zack21

Can someone explain to me why NKLA is valued as high as it is. Does it's current value make sense to anyone else here?

100% speculation that can be remotely close to Telsa.

One concern I have is Nikola's manufacturing process. They have so many partners for production lines in-addition to regular parts' manufacturers.

Then I saw this WSJ article on my brokerage account.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/nikola-...et-11591994156

By Jennifer Smith
June 12, 2020 4:35 pm ET

Electric-truck startup Nikola Corp. and Tesla Inc. both aim to wean the trucking industry off its decades-old dependence on diesel fuel, but the rivals are using two very different road maps.

Tesla plans to use its own technology to build the company’s all-electric Semi truck, including batteries produced at its factory outside Reno, Nev., that supplies its passenger vehicles.

Nikola drew big attention to the electric-truck market this week as shares in the company soared after it began public trading through a merger, and it aims to be just as disruptive as Tesla with a plan to power big rigs through using batteries and hydrogen fuel-cell technology. But the company is building its future on partnerships with established industry manufacturers.

Phoenix-based Nikola has set up partnerships with equipment-maker CNH Industrial NV and automotive supplier Robert Bosch GmbH, which also have invested in the startup. Nikola plans to build a U.S. factory in Coolidge, Ariz., but initial production of its first semi trucks will be at a plant in Ulm, Germany, operated by IVECO, CNH’s commercial vehicle brand.

Competing with established manufacturers while also changing the way trucks are powered is “a huge undertaking,” Nikola Chief Executive Mark Russell said. “Every time we came to a challenge we talked to the established experts around the globe… It was just a really great way to scale the company up.”

IVECO also will help Nikola establish a fueling network in Europe for its hydrogen-electric big rigs, Mr. Russell said. Those trucks, which are planned for production starting in 2023,are to be powered by hydrogen that passes through a fuel cell stack to produce electricity that sends energy to the vehicle’s wheels.

“The reason hydrogen hasn’t taken off is there isn’t enough infrastructure to serve them if you bought one,” Mr. Russell said. “We have to build the vehicle and we have to build the stations to refuel them.”

Big-transport operators are lining up to test the electric trucks. Companies including Walmart Inc., FedEx Corp., United Parcel Service Inc., Ryder System Inc. and J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. have placed reservations for Tesla’s Semi. Trucker U.S. Xpress Inc. and the U.S. subsidiary of Anheuser-Busch InBev SA have reserved hundreds of Nikola’s hydrogen-electric trucks.

The companies haven’t placed full orders, however, and the reservations can be canceled.

Don’t expect to see the trucks on the road soon. The Semi was supposed to come out last year, but has since been pushed back to 2021. Tesla didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Nikola’s first model, an electric-battery truck called the Tre, is also set to roll out next year, with the hydrogen fuel-cell model slated for 2023.

Transportation experts say it could be years before the vehicles gain traction in long-haul trucking, where high upfront costs and concerns about range are hurdles to adoption.

Diesel-powered trucks can go twice as far on a single tank of fuel as the Semi’s maximum 500-mile range.

“We expect gradual increases in adoption rates, particularly for short-haul applications, and for the Class 8 tractor market, access to automotive scale will be key to driving costs down,” said Tim Denoyer, vice president and senior analyst at transportation data provider ACT Research.

By 2030, electric and hybrid models could account for 6.8% of the North American market for heavy-duty trucks, which also includes vehicles such as garbage trucks, according to equipment research group Rhein Associates.

“The biggest question mark that always comes up for me is infrastructure,” said Rhein Associates analyst Andrew Wrobel. Truck stops “are designed to push diesel and gasoline. They are not set up to handle electric charging, especially for long-haul truckers, and they are not set up for hydrogen, to power fuel cells.”

[Zack21]

Thanks for the informative WSJ article. They do seem to be partnering with some pretty big outfits.

[Dusko.Popov]

Originally Posted by Zack21

Thanks for the informative WSJ article. They do seem to be partnering with some pretty big outfits.

I’ve been on nkla since before the reverse merger.

I invested in cnhi about two weeks ago given their association with nkla. My investment is speculative (which some here reasonably distance themselves from). But incidentally their business is solid even independent of nkla.

I’m buying more Cnhi on Monday. I’m a good deal in at this point.

I know there were a lot of sideline watchers yesterday. I loaded up more on nclh, rrgb, dal, luv, and cake - disaster discounted names at even more discounted prices.

Needless to say, today was a good day.

[Zack21]

Dusko:

you certainly live up to the motto Fortis Fortuna Adiuvat. Bravo!

[Dusko.Popov]

Originally Posted by Zack21

Dusko:

you certainly live up to the motto Fortis Fortuna Adiuvat. Bravo!

Not sure I have any clue what I’m doing. Cursory research on companies that seem devastated by coronavirus is all. And then discipline to tune out Cramer, short seller editorials on seeking alpha, and the doom and gloom contingent.

Someone smarter than me once told me that the market is more psychology and less science. What distinguishes the people who make money from those who lose it is the former’s capacity for being patient even when patience is masquerading as the enemy.

Anyway, I hold that advice close. And that’s my plan. I invest (and trade) companies that I feel confident in even when people say the industry is compromised. And I just tune out the noise and remain disciplined. I’m not sure if there is a plan better than that in this environment.

Case in point, the market was fading at around 2:00 (noted here in multiple posts) and my newly minted positions were down a few hundred. The talk was that the day, and the rally, had lost steam.

At 4:00 I was up a couple of grand.

I don’t know what I’m doing outside of investing in American resiliency. Thankfully there are smart people here who are helping me put my profits to good use investing in a long range dividend portfolio (thanks Jpeezy, Brandon, and others).

That shit takes skill and acumen.

Making money in this disaster discounted environment doesn’t take skill or a plan.

It takes some robust steel nuts and a pair of earplugs.

Like Mike Tyson famously said, “everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”

And that about sums it up.

Have a good weekend folks. Let’s make some bread on Monday.

[Screwly]

Originally Posted by Dusko.Popov

Not sure I have any clue what I’m doing. Cursory research on companies that seem devastated by coronavirus is all. And then discipline to tune out Cramer, short seller editorials on seeking alpha, and the doom and gloom contingent.

Someone smarter than me once told me that the market is more psychology and less science. What distinguishes the people who make money from those who lose it is the former’s capacity for being patient even when patience is masquerading as the enemy.

Anyway, I hold that advice close. And that’s my plan. I invest (and trade) companies that I feel confident in even when people say the industry is compromised. And I just tune out the noise and remain disciplined. I’m not sure if there is a plan better than that in this environment.

Case in point, the market was fading at around 2:00 (noted here in multiple posts) and my newly minted positions were down a few hundred. The talk was that the day, and the rally, had lost steam.

At 4:00 I was up a couple of grand.

I don’t know what I’m doing outside of investing in American resiliency. Thankfully there are smart people here who are helping me put my profits to good use investing in a long range dividend portfolio (thanks Jpeezy, Brandon, and others).

That shit takes skill and acumen.

Making money in this disaster discounted environment doesn’t take skill or a plan.

It takes some robust steel nuts and a pair of earplugs.

Like Mike Tyson famously said, “everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”

And that about sums it up.

Have a good weekend folks. Let’s make some bread on Monday.

Well said!! I love it

[jaisonline]

Let’s see how the sellers react to travel & rec stocks on Monday.

There's a signed petition going around to delay Disneyland's opening.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/trave...ic/3175224001/

Wonder Women 1984, Tenant, & Bill & Ted films also delayed their summer releases.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/enter...ly/3179807001/

[austinp]

Disney will open and will probably be full up to the allowed capacity.


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[Tha Baron]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Today has been all over the place. Market can't seem to figure out what it wants to do.

Futures market has a lot of f_ckery going on... Friday AM got the pump on early and it was a matter of time the support level of SnP 3000 was going to be tried again. The slight run up at the finish I bet was weekly short covering. I suspect we battle around SnP 3000 for a few days then drop to 2800ish.

The 13% may unemployment rate was just ridiculous and was reported to be actually higher around 16% given the “temp” and “other” classifications. But, the headline culture doesn’t like articles of a paragraph length and just want the clean reporting of “its over.”

The media just broadcasts whatever cute headline they get each day as if there’s no competing narrative. Like when that BS Gilead drug trial was apparently going to save us all, the market mooned.

People blame WFH millennials with an extra grand or two at the markets irrational behavior, but the CNBC and Media headline click bait has ruined the market for the time being.

[RyanO]

Not very encouraging news out of Beijing:


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnb...ts-market.html


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