Talking Stocks 2.0

[s2h904]

I am sitting on the sidelines-sold everything last week: BA/AAPL/CCL/ARCC/DAL.

After earnings Thursday I expect CCL to get hammered-I will get back in that stock(long term hold).....I like NKLA but not at $60.

Everything thing else is a wait and see.

[JParm]

Nice to see the turn towards positive on the NASDAQ, as well as the cutting of losses on the DOW and S&P.

We know how fickle the market can be these days, so hopefully the turn this early in the week relieves some of the "sky is falling" sentiment.

Let's hope that it holds!

[JParm]

https://www.barrons.com/articles/mor...?mod=hp_LATEST

More bullishness from Morgan Stanley.

[beshannon]

Quite the run back up, not chasing and would consider selling into any sharp rise. This is more churning and I would rather see the market settle back into a trading range, above 3000 on the S&P is too high IMHO

[Uggi]

I'm still on the sidelines with cash in my palms. A few targets came close to my entry points but this isn't a buying (or selling) market for me. I'm sure there is value out there but I'm not seeing it yet. Too much uncertainty out there for now.

[JParm]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/15/the-...ate-bonds.html

More activity from the Fed. They will not let this market fail...

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/15/the-...ate-bonds.html

More activity from the Fed. They will not let this market fail...

Yes and this is starting to bother me

It is one thing to insure liquidity but to actually buy and hold assets is another

[jltait]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/15/the-...ate-bonds.html

More activity from the Fed. They will not let this market fail...

This is obscene, but I like it. Funny money is still money after all; Modern Monetary Theory is becoming more and more popular.

[gabrielnovar]

this is probably the new 1999 bubble. this is when you take out loans and buy stocks. Just bail when you 5-10x your money

[904VT]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Yes and this is starting to bother me

It is one thing to insure liquidity but to actually buy and hold assets is another

Agreed Brian. Bad news to be purchasing assets to prop the market valuations/floors. That is a contradiction with what is needed for markets to work i.e. transparency, fundamentals, and idiosyncratic properties in the underlying. Fixed income market now just follows what the FED buys and the equity markets trade in blocks rather than fundamentals.

[JParm]

https://www.barrons.com/articles/dis...?mod=hp_LATEST

For the DIS owners (myself included) - this is very interesting, and that price target is not what I would expect. I find it to be a bit aggressive, to be completely honest - but I can't complain if it were to hit that in a year.

[austinp]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

https://www.barrons.com/articles/dis...?mod=hp_LATEST

For the DIS owners (myself included) - this is very interesting, and that price target is not what I would expect. I find it to be a bit aggressive, to be completely honest - but I can't complain if it were to hit that in a year.

I added some DIS and SBUX this morning. I like both companies a lot and think they will both trade higher over the next year.


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[904VT]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

https://www.barrons.com/articles/dis...?mod=hp_LATEST

For the DIS owners (myself included) - this is very interesting, and that price target is not what I would expect. I find it to be a bit aggressive, to be completely honest - but I can't complain if it were to hit that in a year.

Disney has some nice growth opportunities imo. Hulu is one and only going to gain more subscribers as many continue to realize that service quality is comparable to cable without hardware rentals. Comcast/NBC Universal is an investor in Hulu as well. ESPN should gain more viewers with the pent up demand for sports content. ESPN+ holds UFC PPV rights as does ESPN for fight night. Future Theme Park revenue is a little uncertain.

On a similar note any thoughts on WWE?

Solid competitive moat, media format innovator, and nice tv deals with the potential for additional tv rights/distribution deals in the long-term. Up and coming movie production studio to supplement. The largest uncertainty in the near future is live gate revenue.

[77T]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Yes and this is starting to bother me



It is one thing to insure liquidity but to actually buy and hold assets is another

I read somewhere that another use of taxpayer money is swinging trading because young ones are trading their $1200 checks via Acorns, Robin Hood, etc.

Ironic that is coming into play.


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[beshannon]

Originally Posted by 904VT

Agreed Brian. Bad news to be purchasing assets to prop the market valuations/floors. That is a contradiction with what is needed for markets to work i.e. transparency, fundamentals, and idiosyncratic properties in the underlying. Fixed income market now just follows what the FED buys and the equity markets trade in blocks rather than fundamentals.

Originally Posted by 77T

I read somewhere that another use of taxpayer money is swinging trading because young ones are trading their $1200 checks via Acorns, Robin Hood, etc.

Ironic that is coming into play.


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Not going to fight the Fed here but being very cautious and watching closely, stops being checked this morning

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsl...?sref=Hny5JH2p

I believe this to be a second top/head fake for this move. At some point we need to sell off meaningfully, not just a one day crash

[77T]

If “we” are the readers here - it is possible. If you mean the larger “we” as in market movers - unlikely. Panic always goes down faster and farther than the top headlines might warrant.

Market Tension is like seismic forces - little warning before the earthquake.


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[beshannon]

Originally Posted by 77T

If “we” are the readers here - it is possible. If you mean the larger “we” as in market movers - unlikely. Panic always goes down faster and farther than the top headlines might warrant.

Market Tension is like seismic forces - little warning before the earthquake.


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Sorry, I meant we as in the market as a whole. I do not believe this rally can sustain itself and will fail again above 3100, IMHO

I am being cautious, while others are greedy

[JParm]

Yesterday and what looks like today are prime examples of why you shouldn't time the market and sit completely on the sidelines, cash heavy waiting for a crash.

While we have some money set aside for a downswing, Most of our allotted cash is in the market riding this out. There have been parts of me that have wanted to sit heavier with cash, but every time we think this market will go south, the Fed does something else to buoy it.

I'm not throwing money in droves chasing stocks, but every dip gets a nibble - not waiting for a huge move down to buy attractive stocks that should get through the volatile market.

And here's some more good news:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/16/us-r...-may-2020.html

[beshannon]

As someone who worked in retail those sales comp numbers are worthless at least to me.

My discipline tells me to stay invested during ups and downs. With the futures now up +1000 this is a massive over reaction IMHO, which I will trade accordingly. I am happy to watch paper values rise. I will take some profits today for sure.

Thin volumes normally during the summer months, too many speculators . . . this is a set up for a bad fall (pun) in the Fall.

I will move my limits and stops accordingly and may even add some downside protection here.

[m j b]

I was watching cnbc closing bell yesterday, and they had some guy on there who I can't remember... some kind of blogger or podder followed by all these small investors spending their stimulus checks via robinhood on crap like hertz. He says he's better than Warren Buffett.

Those are the people who are frothing the Market, and who will likely get burned the worst.

IMHO. I wish I could remember his name so that I could follow him and play off of his moves, briefly.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by m j b

I was watching cnbc closing bell yesterday, and they had some guy on there who I can't remember... some kind of blogger or podder followed by all these small investors spending their stimulus checks via robinhood on crap like hertz. He says he's better than Warren Buffett.

Those are the people who are frothing the Market, and who will likely get burned the worst.

IMHO. I wish I could remember his name so that I could follow him and play off of his moves, briefly.

Dave Portnoy - founder of Barstool Sports.

He's a bit of an internet celebrity and knows what he's doing is for entertainment; he's said it himself that he'll most likely stop trading once life gets back to normal and has to get back to running his business.

The funny thing he said with regard to Warren Buffet is this - "he is one of the greats, but he's 90. Michael Jordan wasn't Michael Jordan with the Wizards."

I think it's a valid point; everyone holds Buffett to such a lofty perch, but his time horizon and way he conducts business is different than the Robinhood folks (of which I am not one). He, like most of us, are investors. Robinhood users are mostly speculative traders, like Portnoy, who can play with the millions that he has.

[JParm]

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/...hopifys-d.aspx

For the FSLY folks. No secret that it's a favorite of mine!

[beshannon]

Again don't fight the Fed, Jay Powell testifying and the market is now up only +364 after being up +852

[logo]

Once again, market auto-reacts to Fed comments in direction opposite from what I’d expect. Powell said Fed would continue to buy or increase buying if the market needs it (if it goes down), and will ease buying as it goes up on its own... what am I missing? He just said the Fed’s got our backs to prop the market up against deep dives, so seems like a win to me.

[gabrielnovar]

this board is a classic example of how 'smart money' is actually dumb money. Very wealthy investors here holding cash

However the rules of the game changed, you are being flushed out of safe assets and forced to go into equities or lose out on profits.

The bubble is actually money market CDs/cash. Once those levels drop then be cautious on stocks. There is a reason only a few called this V bottom. Listen to them

[JParm]

Originally Posted by gabrielnovar

this board is a classic example of how 'smart money' is actually dumb money. Very wealthy investors here holding cash

However the rules of the game changed, you are being flushed out of safe assets and forced to go into equities or lose out on profits.

The bubble is actually money market CDs/cash. Once those levels drop then be cautious on stocks. There is a reason only a few called this V bottom. Listen to them

Nice - call out this entire board as being dumb.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Dave Portnoy - founder of Barstool Sports.

Thanks, JP.

As for the comment above, 'dumb money' I'm not sure what he/she means, exactly. Lots of people predicted a V, but did you mean no one on this thread?

And I'm not so sure that's it's a V. The fat lady hasn't even started to warm up.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by gabrielnovar

this board is a classic example of how 'smart money' is actually dumb money. Very wealthy investors here holding cash

However the rules of the game changed, you are being flushed out of safe assets and forced to go into equities or lose out on profits.

The bubble is actually money market CDs/cash. Once those levels drop then be cautious on stocks. There is a reason only a few called this V bottom. Listen to them

You are speaking about hedge funds correct?

Personally I am always holding some cash, the percentage of my total assets varies but it is foolish to not have available assets to invest when the time is right and to sit on the sidelines when that time is right also.

Otherwise I guess you think that no one here knows what they are doing.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by logo

Once again, market auto-reacts to Fed comments in direction opposite from what I’d expect. Powell said Fed would continue to buy or increase buying if the market needs it (if it goes down), and will ease buying as it goes up on its own... what am I missing? He just said the Fed’s got our backs to prop the market up against deep dives, so seems like a win to me.

His comments regarding adjustments to bond buying were the catalyst to come off highs. Traders want more, they always want more.

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by gabrielnovar

this board is a classic example of how 'smart money' is actually dumb money. Very wealthy investors here holding cash

However the rules of the game changed, you are being flushed out of safe assets and forced to go into equities or lose out on profits.

The bubble is actually money market CDs/cash. Once those levels drop then be cautious on stocks. There is a reason only a few called this V bottom. Listen to them

I don't understand this post. Who is dumb and who is smart? Where is "here"? Who is "you"? Who is "them"?
It's a jumble of pronouns - what does it mean?