Talking Stocks 2.0

[77T]

Originally Posted by beshannon

His comments regarding adjustments to bond buying were the catalyst to come off highs. Traders want more, they always want more.

It is helpful as such comments signal where the next arrow (or dagger as some see it) will be shot.

I noted the drop in trading confidence like you saw. The market is in its own Sargasso Sea where any little breeze sends buyers and sellers into tizzies.


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[logo]

Curious, what have you guys been doing for your long positions in terms of volatility? Tight stops to protect gains and buying back in later, or just riding the volatility and adding on dips?

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by logo

Curious, what have you guys been doing for your long positions in terms of volatility? Tight stops to protect gains and buying back in later, or just riding the volatility and adding on dips?

I can only speak for myself but I have long term holds in positions with a very low cost basis that now have fantastic yields. I simply keep getting paid and ignore the price.

For other positions that might end up as trades yes I keep a close eye on them and/or stops. If it is something I want to hold for the long term I average down. If I am unsure I give it 3-6 months and see where it is going and sometimes just take my profits/losses and move on.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by logo

Curious, what have you guys been doing for your long positions in terms of volatility? Tight stops to protect gains and buying back in later, or just riding the volatility and adding on dips?

Riding the volatility and adding on dips to positions that I really want to hold for a long time (big tech, FSLY, SE, DIS, NKE, etc.).

Keeping my positions in the banks and haven't really added there, as my cost basis is low.

For everything else, I take it day to day. I sold out of V recently, and could see myself doing so with a few others, depending on what happens over the course of the summer.

We have 22 positions, and our sweet spot tends to be between 20-25.

[logo]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I can only speak for myself but I have long term holds in positions with a very low cost basis that now have fantastic yields. I simply keep getting paid and ignore the price.

For other positions that might end up as trades yes I keep a close eye on them and/or stops. If it is something I want to hold for the long term I average down. If I am unsure I give it 3-6 months and see where it is going and sometimes just take my profits/losses and move on.

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Riding the volatility and adding on dips to positions that I really want to hold for a long time (big tech, FSLY, SE, DIS, NKE, etc.).

Keeping my positions in the banks and haven't really added there, as my cost basis is low.

For everything else, I take it day to day. I sold out of V recently, and could see myself doing so with a few others, depending on what happens over the course of the summer.

We have 22 positions, and our sweet spot tends to be between 20-25.

Great, thank you both. I’m relatively new to investing, so my cost basis is not far off from where we’re at currently so my instinct has been to hold and ride the volatility, but my emotion says use the stops haha. But, I’ve found that often after getting stopped out it’s not easy to get back in at a lower price (end up basically trying to time the market, which is a fools errand). All my positions are things I’m intending to hold and add to for several years, so will probably just ride it out and add if things dip far enough from my entry points. And if I do enter something more short term for trades, then for sure the stops will be set.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by logo

Great, thank you both. I’m relatively new to investing, so my cost basis is not far off from where we’re at currently so my instinct has been to hold and ride the volatility, but my emotion says use the stops haha. But, I’ve found that often after getting stopped out it’s not easy to get back in at a lower price (end up basically trying to time the market, which is a fools errand). All my positions are things I’m intending to hold and add to for several years, so will probably just ride it out and add if things dip far enough from my entry points. And if I do enter something more short term for trades, then for sure the stops will be set.

I would say we're similar in the regard of instinct vs. emotion - and I would say your instincts would be better to follow.

I try to take emotion out of this thing and stay disciplined with our strategy...which at times can be as easy as saying you only need one Rolex.

My recommendation would be to stay the course with the stocks that you believe in, because you're right - you'll end up getting out at the wrong time and buying back into the same stock at a higher price during the chase.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by logo

Great, thank you both. I’m relatively new to investing, so my cost basis is not far off from where we’re at currently so my instinct has been to hold and ride the volatility, but my emotion says use the stops haha. But, I’ve found that often after getting stopped out it’s not easy to get back in at a lower price (end up basically trying to time the market, which is a fools errand). All my positions are things I’m intending to hold and add to for several years, so will probably just ride it out and add if things dip far enough from my entry points. And if I do enter something more short term for trades, then for sure the stops will be set.

If you intend to hold for the long(er) term, then start with smaller positions and give yourself time to average into them. If you are setting stops because you are afraid of losing money, remember, paper loses are not realized until you sell.

If you want to hold the stock because you believe it is something that you want to own, consider averaging down with cash or just hold.

This is the major difference between those looking for a fast trade and those looking to buy a MSFT or JPM

[RBradleigh]

1st time poster to this thread and wanted to say thank you. Thinking of selling my small holding in vice ETF ACT at today’s close and putting the funds 50/50 into my BRKB and CSCO holdings if there’s a nice dip tomorrow, otherwise hold the cash for a later date.

CSCO as I like its establishment & 3% dividend and BRKB to get some exposure to AAPL. I was fortunate to get into aapl around the 200 mark but only own 10 shares, compared to most on this thread I’ll assume I’m very small time.

My current “largest” holdings are BRKB, CSCO and NFLX. I pounced on NFLX and CSCO back in March because of the Cv19 situation, using my bonus.

Anyhow, happy hunting and stay safe all. Again I appreciate the commentary in this thread.

[logo]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

I would say we're similar in the regard of instinct vs. emotion - and I would say your instincts would be better to follow.

I try to take emotion out of this thing and stay disciplined with our strategy...which at times can be as easy as saying you only need one Rolex.

My recommendation would be to stay the course with the stocks that you believe in, because you're right - you'll end up getting out at the wrong time and buying back into the same stock at a higher price during the chase.

Originally Posted by beshannon

If you intend to hold for the long(er) term, then start with smaller positions and give yourself time to average into them. If you are setting stops because you are afraid of losing money, remember, paper loses are not realized until you sell.

If you want to hold the stock because you believe it is something that you want to own, consider averaging down with cash or just hold.

This is the major difference between those looking for a fast trade and those looking to buy a MSFT or JPM

Agreed. I had some nice positions in companies earlier on (GOOGL 1200, MSFT 160, AAPL 260), got stopped out with nice profits, but then things never really dropped so eventually I re-entered higher than my stop out. Secured those profits which I guess is not a bad thing, but also missed on some by getting stopped out too early. Lessons learned

Given these are long term holds, my plan recently has been add to the position if it’s dropped relative to my buy point by a good amount (hasn’t really happened yet), and re-evaluate every couple weeks on which horses are doing well and rewarding those by averaging up on dips. All while keeping an eye out for new value to present itself.

[RBradleigh]

And even more reason to be stock heavy, just received another of these

It’s gone from 2% to now 1.05 in a rather short amount of time, almost worth transferring to my regular Credit Union Savings account.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by RBradleigh

I was fortunate to get into aapl around the 200 mark but only own 10 shares, compared to most on this thread I’ll assume I’m very small time.

IMHO this is how many new investors think, that is why they are drawn to penny stocks or low dollar stocks that have been crushed.

A percentage move up or down is the same for 1 share or 1000 shares. If 10 shares of AAPL is your comfort level then base your performance on how they do and do not worry about the size of a position.

The time to worry about the size of a position is when it is out of balance with everything else, ie., if you had 50% of your money in one stock, then you have a problem beyond owning a lot of shares.

You are doing fine!

[beshannon]

Risk on toward the end of the day, people digested what the Fed Chair had to say and decided we are ok.

I am still worried here above 3100, not selling anything yet but being cautious. Thin volumes and going on vacation for me are signs that I want to take some risk off.

I will be watching the rest of the week for follow through. A/D is 6/1 on the upside and the new highs are expanding but the VIX is only down slightly to 34

[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Risk on toward the end of the day, people digested what the Fed Chair had to say and decided we are ok.

I am still worried here above 3100, not selling anything yet but being cautious. Thin volumes and going on vacation for me are signs that I want to take some risk off.

I will be watching the rest of the week for follow through. A/D is 6/1 on the upside and the new highs are expanding but the VIX is only down slightly to 34

I'm surprised at how quickly we rebounded from Friday, but I guess I shouldn't be during this incredibly volatile time (and with the backing of the Fed).

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/do...S%3D1592332684

[trippinjimmy]

Originally Posted by logo

Great, thank you both. I’m relatively new to investing, so my cost basis is not far off from where we’re at currently so my instinct has been to hold and ride the volatility, but my emotion says use the stops haha. But, I’ve found that often after getting stopped out it’s not easy to get back in at a lower price (end up basically trying to time the market, which is a fools errand). All my positions are things I’m intending to hold and add to for several years, so will probably just ride it out and add if things dip far enough from my entry points. And if I do enter something more short term for trades, then for sure the stops will be set.

It hasn't been mentioned yet but keep in mind the tax consequence of short term vs long term capital gains. If you do indeed intend to hold for the long term, make sure you hold it for at least a year so you're not paying into your tax bracket.

[JParm]

Good point about taxes above.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...S%3D1592338816

For those that wondering where we MIGHT be headed.

[jtli202]

Can someone explain Zoom to me? I've had a small position in it for a few months and it's paid of well for me. Debating whether or not to take profits.

I understand the current market environment has helped it alot, and they recently knocked it out of the park earnings wise. What I don't understand is what kind of competitive advantage it has (apart from being a pureplay) vs. companies with similar services (Microsoft, Cisco, Google, etc.) with much deeper pockets.

[RyanO]

What’s keeping me up at night is that just as we are beginning to reopen, there are signs that cases are rising, and significantly so in some states - while the funds that many businesses have received from PPP loans will be exhausted at the end of this month. Combine those factors with the relatively high valuations we have right now, and I’m just concerned that the market has gotten a bit ahead of itself in the short term.

Maybe I’m being too cautious, but I also think that we’re going to be in a new normal for far longer than originally anticipated.


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[Tha Baron]

Originally Posted by logo

Curious, what have you guys been doing for your long positions in terms of volatility? Tight stops to protect gains and buying back in later, or just riding the volatility and adding on dips?

60% of my liquid net worth is passively managed don’t touch type of deal. I dropped some cash in during the big leg down in early March.

For my long holds I’ll only add on dips money I don’t plan on using until 15 years out...

I have side portfolio with 2-5% of my liquid that I basically gamble on spec bets

[JasoninDenver]

Originally Posted by RyanO

What’s keeping me up at night is that just as we are beginning to reopen, there are signs that cases are rising, and significantly so in some states - while the funds that many businesses have received from PPP loans will be exhausted at the end of this month. Combine those factors with the relatively high valuations we have right now, and I’m just concerned that the market has gotten a bit ahead of itself in the short term.

Maybe I’m being too cautious, but I also think that we’re going to be in a new normal for far longer than originally anticipated.


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Right there with you. Made a lot of money in 2007-2008, but this feels much, much different in that the true externality working here is not directly responsive to fiscal or monetary policy. My peace of mind is worth more than a loss of 5-10% future run up at this point. Wish I had the technical expertise of some here, but I do not.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jtli202

Can someone explain Zoom to me? I've had a small position in it for a few months and it's paid of well for me. Debating whether or not to take profits.

I understand the current market environment has helped it alot, and they recently knocked it out of the park earnings wise. What I don't understand is what kind of competitive advantage it has (apart from being a pureplay) vs. companies with similar services (Microsoft, Cisco, Google, etc.) with much deeper pockets.

No I cannot explain ZM and I would not use the product or touch the stock. Many people do both, Hype has fueled its rise and it feels very dot.com like to me. The security issues are enough to lose my interest.

Originally Posted by RyanO

What’s keeping me up at night is that just as we are beginning to reopen, there are signs that cases are rising, and significantly so in some states - while the funds that many businesses have received from PPP loans will be exhausted at the end of this month. Combine those factors with the relatively high valuations we have right now, and I’m just concerned that the market has gotten a bit ahead of itself in the short term.

Maybe I’m being too cautious, but I also think that we’re going to be in a new normal for far longer than originally anticipated.


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I agree, with the S&P above 3100 the market is really extended here with many conflicting indicators. Stay focused is my best advice, I am looking at trimming positions each day here and bought a little back on Friday but for the most part I am not doing much.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

No I cannot explain ZM and I would not use the product or touch the stock. Many people do both, Hype has fueled its rise and it feels very dot.com like to me. The security issues are enough to lose my interest.

I somewhat agree that there are some aspects of the current market that hark back to the dot-com bubble (hyper growth, extremely high valuations, etc.), but I also believe that there can be lessons learned from that time that can be carried over now - e.g. don't invest in things like pets.com just because it has .com in it.

I don't personally own ZM and I feel like it has run VERY quickly, though I do believe that there is some worth in the service that they provide. The catch is that there are a lot of competitors in the space, so you have to be careful there.

As always, due diligence is key if you're going to dip into high growth stocks, as we are doing. For example, I've trumpeted FSLY as the leader in edge computing due to their clientele and lack of competition. I really like SE, as they have 1st mover advantage in Southeast Asia for e-commerce, gaming, and electronic payments bundled into one. Lastly, I like PINS for their unique user base, which is a minefield for data accumulation. Whether they can monetize it is not the issue, though they are working on that with their collaboration with Shopify; it's valuable enough that M&A possibilities are endless (think of a young FB here).

I would say about 70% of our portfolio is for mega cap companies that you wouldn't have to worry about, with the remaining percentage geared towards the 3 growth stories above (along with LVGO for the future of healthcare and APHA in the cannabis space). Our time horizon is long, so I'm comfortably with this type of barbel approach.

All this to say that beshannon and I are similar, but different! Different time horizons and different strategies to skin this market, but the last thing you want to do is chase because it's in the news and everyone else is doing it.

[77T]

Originally Posted by beshannon

No I cannot explain ZM and I would not use the product or touch the stock. Many people do both, Hype has fueled its rise and it feels very dot.com like to me. The security issues are enough to lose my interest.

You’re wise not to use the App. As far as the stock, it’s a flyer that can come down as quickly as it rose. Gambling results is not same as investing.

A brief detour -
Here is my concern for those here to take as basic background. Offered only in the spirit of teamwork if you’re making business calls on Zoom.

I think everyone heard about the Zoom-bombers and thought the recent fix made everything OK...and new encryption made calls private.

Security wonks found the new encryption keys used on Zoom’s US domestic servers were also in China servers when no Chinese participants were in the test calls. Therefore, Chinese Security forces have access to any call anywhere.

This is Huawei level risk.






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[beshannon]

Originally Posted by 77T

You’re wise not to use the App. As far as the stock, it’s a flyer that can come down as quickly as it rose. Gambling results is not same as investing.

A brief detour -
Here is my concern for those here to take as basic background. Offered only in the spirit of teamwork if you’re making business calls on Zoom.

I think everyone heard about the Zoom-bombers and thought the recent fix made everything OK...and new encryption made calls private.

Security wonks found the new encryption keys used on Zoom’s US domestic servers were also in China servers when no Chinese participants were in the test calls. Therefore, Chinese Security forces have access to any call anywhere.

This is Huawei level risk.






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Well due to my job I get notices and info that tell me a lot of things that are not public.

It is impossible to use it on my work equipment and I would never use it on my personal equipment.

Those who want to invest in the stock need to understand the business and why if it is a better product than Microsoft Teams or others from Cisco or Adobe.

Personally as a stock I would own MSFT, ADBE and CSCO before I would ever buy ZM.

[gabrielnovar]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Nice - call out this entire board as being dumb.

lol Its a compliment!! A lot of successful people here but the market certainly has a lot confused!

not a jab lol

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by gabrielnovar

lol Its a compliment!! A lot of successful people here but the market certainly has a lot confused!

not a jab lol

No, not really

[904VT]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Nice - call out this entire board as being dumb.

Originally Posted by m j b

Thanks, JP.

As for the comment above, 'dumb money' I'm not sure what he/she means, exactly. Lots of people predicted a V, but did you mean no one on this thread?

And I'm not so sure that's it's a V. The fat lady hasn't even started to warm up.

JP I don’t think he or she is calling anyone dumb. That’s classic verbiage for talking contrarian vs non-contrarian viewpoints. Smart money is usually the contrarian money, but they’re saying in this case “smart money” aka institutions and UHNW are this time piling into cash. As a result, potential for a M1 and M2 supply bubble. Smart money is getting suckered into cash, but will lose real purchasing power in the current conditions setting up a bubble. You guys are looking for high conviction stocks with LT revenue consistency and competitor moats, that’s about all you can do in this market on the stock side.

[JParm]

https://thepointsguy.com/news/spirit...tpg-interview/

For the SAVE owners. Yes, the airlines might hurt for awhile but if you have to be in them, SAVE and LUV are the winners, in my opinion (I'm long).

Both businesses focused on domestic, leisure travelers (read: non-business), and LUV has especially done well during post-recessionary periods.

Still might be a gamble for some, but long-term, I think the entry point here is fine.

[beshannon]

Markets on either side of the open today, waiting for news that does not seem to be coming.

Fed Chair continues his testimony, nothing new at this point. AAPL hits a record and AMZN continues higher on several upgrades.

I added small positions today in XOM and DOW

[bryan13]

Its a sad day for my ENPH position. Looking to add more sometime before close today.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by bryan13

Its a sad day for my ENPH position. Looking to add more sometime before close today.

Uh,

Enphase Energy (ENPH -15%) sinks after short seller Prescience Point Capital issues a negative report that says 39%, or $205M, of the company's reported U.S. revenue is "fabricated" by "accounting gimmicks that artificially inflate revenue and profits."

https://seekingalpha.com/news/358383...d-short-seller