Talking Stocks 2.0

[904VT]

Originally Posted by Fabrice M

I trade futures for a living, and my personal opinion is that we haven’t seen the bottom yet. Right now the government is in effect subsidizing the stock market, but at some point the money will run out, the recession will really kick-in and the market should eventually become a bear market. I wouldn’t be surprise to see the ES go down as much 17-1800. Personally as far as equities I cashed out a while ago and patiently waiting. If I look at fundamentals I can’t see a recovery anytime soon.

In Denver two very good CTA shops I know of. One that focuses on medium to long-term counter-trend and another that focuses on shorter-term trend reversions and counter-trend. I think it's possible for pure trend-followers to get whipsawed in the 2nd half of the year though conversely bc of the reasons you mention. We'll probably see a risk on/risk off market the next 3-5 years.

I think you are correct. The market still hasn't seen the full impact imo of the stay at home orders and what has happened to small business. Most don't have more than a few months of liquidity imo, so we may see bankruptcies lag. Most S&P 500 companies have 40% + revenue ties outside the US as well, so they could be hurt going forward in a lagging effect as well.

All just my non-professional opinion ....

[gabrielnovar]

first time I paid with Cash app or venmo at a restaurant vs a credit card.

How times are changing

[scarlet knight]

If you could recommend one “new wave” tech or cloud stock, what do you like? I have looked at FSLY, ZS, TDOC, things of that nature.

[logo]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

If you could recommend one “new wave” tech or cloud stock, what do you like? I have looked at FSLY, ZS, TDOC, things of that nature.

FSLY or NET. Both cloud computing companies offering SaaS for content delivery, but I lean towards NET personally due to their larger customer base, higher revenues and emphasis on cybersecurity which is a bit harder to replicate by big tech. I own a position in NET. FSLY I think is a bit overbought currently, but do plan to add a small position at some point.

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by logo

FSLY or NET. Both cloud computing companies offering SaaS for content delivery, but I lean towards NET personally due to their larger customer base, higher revenues and emphasis on cybersecurity which is a bit harder to replicate by big tech. I own a position in NET. FSLY I think is a bit overbought currently, but do plan to add a small position at some point.

Will definitely look at NET. Unfamiliar with it.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

If you could recommend one “new wave” tech or cloud stock, what do you like? I have looked at FSLY, ZS, TDOC, things of that nature.

I like and own CRM, massive scale and customer base

https://www.thestreet.com/markets/5-...-monday-062220

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsl...?sref=Hny5JH2p

[JParm]

Back at it...

Will be watching NKE closely throughout the week, with earnings set for Thursday. Plan to add on to that position on any weakness. The earnings could also be a precursor for what's to come with other companies, though Nike's digital transformation might prove better than most.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...S%3D1592825836

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Back at it...

Will be watching NKE closely throughout the week, with earnings set for Thursday. Plan to add on to that position on any weakness. The earnings could also be a precursor for what's to come with other companies, though Nike's digital transformation might prove better than most.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...S%3D1592825836

I would like to get back into NKE but it has run too far for me

[JParm]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

If you could recommend one “new wave” tech or cloud stock, what do you like? I have looked at FSLY, ZS, TDOC, things of that nature.

I'm heavy in FSLY (most are probably tired of me talking about!), but it is the future and has an outstanding clientele list with amazing growth. A quick search of just the last couple months will show you where Fastly has been / is headed.

Take a look at LVGO and SE as well, which are two other companies that I continue to trumpet.

If you're hesitant to go long on any of these, dabble in a couple calls first(would suggest >30 days) on any red day and see where they take you.

I'm long in all 3 and also hold calls in FSLY and SE.

[kearez]

I’ll do some research on FSLY. Read great things about it. Maybe open a small position today.

[beshannon]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/21/bank...first-hit.html

A lot of money sitting on the sidelines, if the market stays stuck in a trading range due to fear, when does this money make its way back into the markets?

[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/21/bank...first-hit.html

A lot of money sitting on the sidelines, if the market stays stuck in a trading range due to fear, when does this money make its way back into the markets?

There does still seem to be quite a bit of fear out there; how many people on this thread alone have said that they're sitting on the sidelines?

There's money to be made here and as long as we're in valuable positions (as I know you are, Brian), I think all will be fine.

I'd rather have my money in the market and lose a bit than to miss the gains later and say "what if?". Time horizon is long, so riding the wave is not a big deal to me.

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

There does still seem to be quite a bit of fear out there; how many people on this thread alone have said that they're sitting on the sidelines?

There's money to be made here and as long as we're in valuable positions (as I know you are, Brian), I think all will be fine.

I'd rather have my money in the market and lose a bit than to miss the gains later and say "what if?". Time horizon is long, so riding the wave is not a big deal to me.

I'm still on the sidelines. In March I invested 100% of my funds and have slowly taken the profits as my TPs were hit. I'm currently only 40% invested. I do take your point about being in a market and not sat on cash during 0% base rate periods but I just don't see anything which represents "value" in the old school definition of the word. There are companies I'd love to be in (which I was in before and have closed out of) but I don't see any justifiable buy in prices to suit my risk appetite.
I'm patient and can wait - though I acknowledge the fact this might mean I'm missing the boat (many boats).

[JParm]

Originally Posted by Uggi

I'm still on the sidelines. In March I invested 100% of my funds and have slowly taken the profits as my TPs were hit. I'm currently only 40% invested. I do take your point about being in a market and not sat on cash during 0% base rate periods but I just don't see anything which represents "value" in the old school definition of the word. There are companies I'd love to be in (which I was in before and have closed out of) but I don't see any justifiable buy in prices to suit my risk appetite.
I'm patient and can wait - though I acknowledge the fact this might mean I'm missing the boat (many boats).

I wouldn't say you're sitting on the sidelines at 40% invested; at least you've got something in there - nearly half

I'm more talking about those that have taken nearly all of the money out since March and continue to wait for a crash that might not come.

There's always the possibility of another crash...but that's always there in the market.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Uggi

I'm still on the sidelines. In March I invested 100% of my funds and have slowly taken the profits as my TPs were hit. I'm currently only 40% invested. I do take your point about being in a market and not sat on cash during 0% base rate periods but I just don't see anything which represents "value" in the old school definition of the word. There are companies I'd love to be in (which I was in before and have closed out of) but I don't see any justifiable buy in prices to suit my risk appetite.
I'm patient and can wait - though I acknowledge the fact this might mean I'm missing the boat (many boats).

I agree you have to really dig hard to find things to buy here and I am not one of the TINA proponents, however, I would rather own a solid company that goes nowhere and get a dividend rather than have cash sit and earn nothing.

Stocks like CSCO and VZ are not moving much but I can at least be paid to wait.

[BNA/LION]

Good Luck this week to anyone who is Long HRTX! Hopefully we get FDA Approval for HTX-011 by this Friday!

[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I would like to get back into NKE but it has run too far for me

NKE seems to be running in anticipation of the earnings report we discussed.

Unless it falls off a cliff, I don't think I'll be adding there this week.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

NKE seems to be running in anticipation of the earnings report we discussed.

Unless it falls off a cliff, I don't think I'll be adding there this week.

Agreed, no value left in the trade for me especially with a 1% yield

[logo]

Waiting for that dip in AMZN and NVDA... thinking realistically for AMZN to get sub 2600 again, let alone 2500 range they’d need to drop >4% from here. Not sure that will happen, and I guess with a long term outlook getting in at 2600 vs 2700 won’t matter.... stay disciplined and wait or take the plunge?

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by logo

Waiting for that dip in AMZN and NVDA... thinking realistically for AMZN to get sub 2600 again, let alone 2500 range they’d need to drop >4% from here. Not sure that will happen, and I guess with a long term outlook getting in at 2600 vs 2700 won’t matter.... stay disciplined and wait or take the plunge?

I do not have any specific timing advice, rather how long do you plan to hold the stock?

In order to get the drop you want there will have to be something really bad happen either with AMZN or the economy or both. Will you be willing to buy the stock then? Or will you wait for it to go lower? Or will you be afraid to buy at all?

I do not look at where a stock has been I look at where it is going

https://seekingalpha.com/news/358376...-share-needham

This is one view

NVDA is a chip stock and despite their run and dominance, chip stocks can and do get hammered from time to time. I would buy pullbacks in NVDA, small positions and average in.

[logo]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I do not have any specific timing advice, rather how long do you plan to hold the stock?

In order to get the drop you want there will have to be something really bad happen either with AMZN or the economy or both. Will you be willing to buy the stock then? Or will you wait for it to go lower? Or will you be afraid to buy at all?

I do not look at where a stock has been I look at where it is going

https://seekingalpha.com/news/358376...-share-needham

This is one view

NVDA is a chip stock and despite their run and dominance, chip stocks can and do get hammered from time to time. I would buy pullbacks in NVDA, small positions and average in.

Yeah for sure, I agree. After AMZN crossed 2600 I figured I’d wait for a small dip last week, but that didn’t really happen. It’s definitely a multi year hold, so I’ll hop in.

NVDA I agree, it’s more volatile. Was waiting to see how they fare above 380, or if they pull back a bit at that level before entering.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by logo

Yeah for sure, I agree. After AMZN crossed 2600 I figured I’d wait for a small dip last week, but that didn’t really happen. It’s definitely a multi year hold, so I’ll hop in.

Tomorrow the market will be down and AMZN will be down 100 points! You can be mad at me, yourself or you can think about your plan and buy more.

Investing takes time and patience.

Good luck!

[logo]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Tomorrow the market will be down and AMZN will be down 100 points! You can be mad at me, yourself or you can think about your plan and buy more.

Investing takes time and patience.

Good luck!

Haha I’ll hold you to it! I added here - at least I can day I bought under 2700 I think I have a tendency to agonize over small price shifts when in the 2-5 year horizon it really doesn’t matter. Thanks for the advice.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by logo

Haha I’ll hold you to it! I added here - at least I can day I bought under 2700 I think I have a tendency to agonize over small price shifts when in the 2-5 year horizon it really doesn’t matter. Thanks for the advice.

I don't think that's a bad move at all. AMZN still has plenty of legs and upward movement ahead of it.

It also doesn't rely on the economy opening up, so that's another check for upside.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by logo

Haha I’ll hold you to it! I added here - at least I can day I bought under 2700 I think I have a tendency to agonize over small price shifts when in the 2-5 year horizon it really doesn’t matter. Thanks for the advice.

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

I don't think that's a bad move at all. AMZN still has plenty of legs and upward movement ahead of it.

It also doesn't rely on the economy opening up, so that's another check for upside.

I am holding mine and would add more but my cost basis is low so I would need a big pullback to justify, I am using cash for other things, I opened a small position in CSCO today

[beshannon]

Good article on buying a stock that some might think is too expensive

MSFT

https://seekingalpha.com/article/435...eturns-remains

I am a long holder and averaged down into my positions back in March

[logo]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Good article on buying a stock that some might think is too expensive

MSFT

https://seekingalpha.com/article/435...eturns-remains

I am a long holder and averaged down into my positions back in March

Love MSFT. I add to my position there in regular intervals, and will do so again in the coming weeks. Really there’s never a bad time to buy MSFT in my view.

[JParm]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/22/micr...r-in-july.html

Nothing like a FB pump by MSFT. Long in both, but just thought this was interesting.

[JParm]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/22/zoom...ome-stock.html

I've been talking up FSLY for awhile now since I got in at $40, and CNBC is now giving its fair due.

" “Its customers are a lot of the next-generation bleeding-edge tech companies,” said Rishi Jaluria, an analyst at DA Davidson who recommends buying the stock. “It’s the combination of a company with really strong fundamentals and everything executing really well and at the same time, I think, momentum is building on that.” "

[supernova]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/22/zoom...ome-stock.html

I've been talking up FSLY for awhile now since I got in at $40, and CNBC is now giving its fair due.[/B]"

You even convinced me with the amount of praise you give it here! Took a small position in it last week. Nice move yesterday!