Talking Stocks 2.0

[superdog]

Originally Posted by pickettt

I swear I've read every one of your investment strategies and we are EXACTLY on the same page.

Yeah brother!!

Definitely makes me feel good to know that.

Respect!!

[Yoda_Eating_Pizza]

Originally Posted by superdog

The last thread of this kind was more on investing rather than just stocks. So please forgive me if I digress.

For years I have been advocating a debt free life. Imho, pay off everything before you starting spending on fun things.

My entire adult life I looked to set myself up debt free. My first condo bought in 2003 I was told by the bank I had been preapproved for 300k. I did the math and that just didn’t work. I could not have paid my bills.

I told my real estate agent to show me less than 200k. First place shows me is 220k. He tells me I negotiate lower. I explained that if he showed me a place over again, I’d find a new agent.

I bought a place for 180k. I lived there a decade and rabidly paid it down. My buddies were all living it up large and spending. Big houses, pools, boob jobs for the wives. Nothing fancy for me during those times.

Then I sold my side hustle business. Paid off everything, bought a small townhouse in cash and put the rest in savings. But at the time I had people suggesting I should have bought a big beautiful home and simply had a mortgage. At the time my day job was growing so things were good. My wife agreed with me. In fact we were just getting ready for the wedding about this time. But keep monthly expenses low was my motto.

I started to get frivolous and have some fun. I had no bills besides some basics.

I continued on that path and only got more dedicated to a debt free life. If I couldn’t pay for it, I didn’t buy it.

I was told over and over and over by people smarter than me I made huge errors along the way. I’d have so much more money right now if I had mortgages and car payments but had my money in the markets.

Maybe that was true. Maybe it’s still true. My response every time was what happens if disaster strikes. If I did it their way, I’ve got big bills, and money in the markets...dwindling. Can’t take that money out. Once it’s out you lock in the loss I’d say. And Id need loot to pay my big bills if I lived larger.

For certain I hate seeing what’s happening. But I’m so glad I did it the way I did it. As I watch this madness unfold, especially as a small business owner, I’m terrified. But I have a certain sense of calm knowing that I set up in this fashion.

I’ve read about consultants being lined up to review layoffs etc. I’m going in tomorrow and cutting my salary by half. Best thing I can do is keep my business solid. I’ve already had a great contract postponed because of a lack of product shipping out of China. If I keep all my resources and become better and more capable than my competition, it creates a great advantage/opportunity for me.

In the past, someone that is now banned, sent me a pm saying that he really liked me and my posts. But that I could come off as bragging at times. It’s never my intention and certainly not now. As most people here know, I’m just extremely open. For better and for worse. Moving on...

And it’s the investment thread and I’m making the point that I do feel vindicated in my strategy over the years. I’ve seen tons of very successful people fail because when the time came, they lost a lot of money and had big bills to boot.

People advocate for “free money” in those “should I finance my Rolex for 0%” interest threads. I would always say no. It’s not free. And it’s still a bill. Pay for it or don’t buy it. Sure they could be earning 6 or 7 perfect in the markets with that money. But when this type of scenario unfolding happens, the wins are erased and they are left with bills to pay for what is ultimately an unnecessary luxury item that is also likely losing value.

Debt free in my opinion. It’s the only way. And maybe there is a balance for most. I realize I’m on the extreme end. But for certain there is a clear advantage to keeping low monthly payments and living below your means until you get to a point of little to no debt.

Just some food for thought.

I have to say I really enjoy reading your posts. I admire the clarity of your goal-setting and the focus you have to attain those goals.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Yoda_Eating_Pizza

I have to say I really enjoy reading your posts. I admire the clarity of your goal-setting and the focus you have to attain those goals.

Thank you. I appreciate that feedback. Truth is a lot of it comes from anxiety. I worry I’m going to mess it all up so I over compensate. But it works for me.

Now if only I didn’t waste so much money on cars and watches.

But seriously. Thank you.

[healer]

Super dog-just the way you express your thoughts and the way you had live your life in my book you are a winner;)

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by superdog

Dow futures up 459.

Possible changes to fiscal policy that were telegraphed out

If there is a big open, I will be selling as I can take some profits off the table (albeit from a lower level) and rebuild cash.

There is no reason for the markets to go up tomorrow other than short covering or those eager to try and time the bottom.

[razzz]

This coronavirus has to be a huge bargaining chip for the US in terms of the 'trade war'. People seem to forget the tariffs are still in place too.

[scarlet knight]

The oil market and the bond market are of as much concern as the stock market.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Possible changes to fiscal policy that were telegraphed out

If there is a big open, I will be selling as I can take some profits off the table (albeit from a lower level) and rebuild cash.

There is no reason for the markets to go up tomorrow other than short covering or those eager to try and time the bottom.

Maybe the markets are realizing the actual impact of this is not worth the massive panic and sell off?

Maybe it’s time to come back to reality a little bit?

I realize this is wishful thinking. Heck, I’d take a few weeks of flat markets over all this.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by healer

Super dog-just the way you express your thoughts and the way you had live your life in my book you are a winner;)

That’s nice. I appreciate that!

[A971]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

The oil market and the bond market are of as much concern as the stock market.

Yes. All the shale is now underwater vs break evens north of $40/brl. Exposure here is massive... 80 bln in high yield debt that is now in very bad shape.

Keep the powder dry


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by superdog

Maybe the markets are realizing the actual impact of this is not worth the massive panic and sell off?

Maybe it’s time to come back to reality a little bit?

I realize this is wishful thinking. Heck, I’d take a few weeks of flat markets over all this.

Sorry, no. I disagree and without being able to discuss the other info it is hard to analyze everything here.

Futures are limit up, this whipsaw is an indication of a very confused market with very fluid events.

I am taking advantage to raise more cash this morning as I feel this has not reached a bottom yet.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

The oil market and the bond market are of as much concern as the stock market.

Originally Posted by A971

Yes. All the shale is now underwater vs break evens north of $40/brl. Exposure here is massive... 80 bln in high yield debt that is now in very bad shape.

Keep the powder dry


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Exactly, several coal producers declaring bankruptcy as well. The energy markets are imploding, the flight to safety in bonds will not stop, rates will go to zero in the US and equities will have to reprice.

[smohr33]

Did some tax loss harvesting yesterday, hope these futures hold.

[Bruin Watch]

Good dialogue on this thread. I’m not an expert like many of you, but my gut is with Brian and Seth on this one today. Maybe take advantage of the short term pop if you have stock to unload, but otherwise sit tight. I really don’t think we have truly tested the bottom yet. (However, interesting movement on the Treasury’s overnight).

[beshannon]

Robert Shiller: Coronavirus is creating a ‘dangerous time’ for markets, panic is just starting

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/shil...-starting.html

I find his analysis to be spot on

‘If you’re asking for when the financial markets see peak virus, I think it’ll be about a month from now.’

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...?mod=home-page

Not to pile on but another analyst I follow Katie Stockton says that 2750 on the S&P is first line of support and if that does not hold over the next few weeks then 2350 is next which is down 14.5% and back to December 2018 lows

[beshannon]

Futures backing off limits, Delta and American Airlines announcing more cuts, Delta CEO says he expects things to get worse

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/10/delt...get-worse.html

I am not expecting this up open to hold at all

[smohr33]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I am not expecting this up open to hold at all

Same.

Have a few more positions to unload if we drop another few %.

[beshannon]

Holding steady so far, VIX down to +49, 10 year at .646%

Orders taking longer than usual at Schwab for me today, sold 8 positions went to 30% cash, will take more profits if this moves higher during the day

Buying interest slowly fading DOW up only +370 at 10:50 EDT, VIX back to +51, 10 year at .609%

Need to see where Europe closes first

[m j b]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I am taking advantage to raise more cash this morning as I feel this has not reached a bottom yet.

Originally Posted by beshannon

I am not expecting this up open to hold at all

Originally Posted by smohr33

Same.

Ditto. I bought a bunch of beaten-down stuff yesterday (oil, banks) and sold it all this morning, most of them with a profit. A small profit, but hey, it's green. I also dumped my losers this morning. Cutting my losses on those.

Going back to Yoda's posts - I am not 100% with him on everything, but in general I agree. Having huge debt is the American way, and I get that you can't buy your first (or even second or third...) house with cash, but at some point as we approach retirement, folks have to get their financial house in order. I realize that most of us here are far above average in income, financial independence and dare I presume, financial knowledge. Too many people in this country, and others around the world, can't go for more than a month without income. This pandemic has the potential to throw us into a severe recession. Lowering the prime lending rate 1/2 pt. ain't gonna fix it.

I will be buying back in the market, but I will also be selling into any of these short-lived rallies. It ain't over yet folks.

[superdog]

and negative....

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by m j b

This pandemic has the potential to throw us into a severe recession. Lowering the prime lending rate 1/2 pt. ain't gonna fix it.

I will be buying back in the market, but I will also be selling into any of these short-lived rallies. It ain't over yet folks.

Agreed, the rally went negative but is back up for the moment. No conviction on the part of the buyers so I feel this fails again

I would like another sharp move up to sell more but I am going to hold here after selling this morning near the top

[beshannon]

Rumors of Buffet buying seems to have picked up the market

[superdog]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Rumors of Buffet buying seems to have picked up the market

I really hope it ends up today.

we could all really use some good vibes.

cmon 600+. Lets do it!!!!

[Bearxj86]

Still buying. A bit at a time. : )

[Letsgodiving]

It would have been nice to see the indexes close down 20+% from the all-time high to end the press mantra regarding the 10-11 year bull market we are currently experiencing. I have a feeling we will get there soon enough but if not I can live with that.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by superdog

I really hope it ends up today.

we could all really use some good vibes.

cmon 600+. Lets do it!!!!

Originally Posted by Letsgodiving

It would have been nice to see the indexes close down 20+% from the all-time high to end the press mantra regarding the 10-11 year bull market we are currently experiencing. I have a feeling we will get there soon enough but if not I can live with that.

Well not sure how I feel, certainly I will take an up close of 1165 at the highs of the day, close to a 50% retracement

Short covering, insider buying, Buffet buying (rumor) . . .

I am not sure we have bottomed, still too much news to come about COVID-19, interest rates are a big question given what the Fed still might do and the oil crash certainly hurts a lot of businesses.

I'll take the increase in my assets but keeping cash handy and may do so further selling toward the end of the week if this continues

[Peter11]

All I know is when the market swings up and down more than 1 or 2 percent this frequently, that is a market I don't want to be in. The brilliant day traders and insiders can make their money (but not off me).

[brandrea]

It sure will be interesting to bump this thread a year from now to see where markets are.

Since 1980, there have been 32 market corrections and 90% of the time, the market has ended the year higher

[037]

Originally Posted by brandrea

It sure will be interesting to bump this thread a year from now to see where markets are.

Since 1980, there have been 32 market corrections and 90% of the time, the market has ended the year higher

So you're saying there's a chance?

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by 037

So you're saying there's a chance?

There’s always hope my friend

Look I’m not saying the market will end higher this year, (even tho history says it should), but I do believe in time it comes back and goes on to new highs just as it always has.