Prices slump by up to 50% for discontinued Rolex watches (Watchpro)

[GoWarriors]

Originally Posted by dmash

I’ll love for RO to get back to $20k new and ROC to get back to mid 25’s new. I’ll pick one up for that, was waiting forever for AP to go in house with their chronos which didn’t happen until 2021. I’m a fan of the removed AP logo and 5 o clock date, some guys hate but I like it.

Agreed, the Audemars Piguet text w/o AP logo is nice on the Royal Oaks.

And the converse - AP logo only w/o full text - looks great on the Offshores.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by dmash

I’ll love for RO to get back to $20k new and ROC to get back to mid 25’s new. I’ll pick one up for that, was waiting forever for AP to go in house with their chronos which didn’t happen until 2021. I’m a fan of the removed AP logo and 5 o clock date, some guys hate but I like it.

retail for ROs is around 25k so even as of now that's still a bit unlikely

[thomaspp]

All these grey dealers made fortunes last few years.

Once the dust settles only a few references from a few brands will be anywhere above retail. Steel Daytonas, steel nautilus and some steel royal oaks…. the rest at discounts like it was in the good old days.

Hoping the “fun” times in this hobby come back soon and the “investors” go back to doing something else.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[dmash]

Originally Posted by huncho

retail for ROs is around 25k so even as of now that's still a bit unlikely

You know what like new RO was selling for from mainstream greys just FOUR years ago right? And this is asks, you could buy $14-$15k all day. I think they retailed for just shy of $18k at this point.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthre...hlight=15400st

[huncho]

Originally Posted by dmash

You know what like new RO was selling for from mainstream greys just FOUR years ago right? And this is asks, you could buy $14-$15k all day. I think they retailed for just shy of $18k at this point.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthre...hlight=15400st

retail back then was 16k or less, i remember it was 16.5k in dec 2019 when i got my RO

[Incroyable12]

14790s could be had for $8k several years ago. Yves Kleins were around $10k but nobody wanted them because they were too unusual.

The RO QP in platinum and SS would sit unsold for $35-40k.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by huncho

retail for ROs is around 25k so even as of now that's still a bit unlikely

I just realized how much they’ve pumped MSRP though. That’s insane, $25k + tax for a basic steel three hander, non LE. Said for past years some companies are pushing too hard and it’s going to come back. When somebody sits down and really thinks about it, that’s an absolutely absurd price to pay for what you’re getting, my opinion.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by dmash

I just realized how much they’ve pumped MSRP though. That’s insane, $25k 9+ tax for a basic steel three gander. Said for past years some companies are pushing too hard and it’s going to come back. When somebody sits down and really thinks about it, that’s an absolutely absurd price to pay for what you’re getting, my opinion.

yeah it's crazy and they essentially priced out anyone who was cross shopping rolex with AP so i think it was intentional. now will be interesting to see what they do to keep prices near their hikes

[GoWarriors]

Originally Posted by huncho

yeah it's crazy and they essentially priced out anyone who was cross shopping rolex with AP so i think it was intentional. now will be interesting to see what they do to keep prices near their hikes

Moda price is still a solid 60-90% over MSRP, street price more like 70-120% over MSRP...

AP doesn't need to worry about their MSRP being too high just yet!

There has been a lot of inflation since 2019 - ie currency becoming less valuable in and of itself - so those prices should be gone forever. Comparing to 2019 should be akin to comparing to 1950, when you could get a glass Coca Cola for a nickel or whatever.

With currency continuing to lose value at a very rapid clip, I'd say that the MSRP's are safe... for now...

[huncho]

Originally Posted by GoWarriors

Moda price is still a solid 60-90% over MSRP, street price more like 70-120% over MSRP...

AP doesn't need to worry about their MSRP being too high just yet!

There has been a lot of inflation since 2019 - ie currency becoming less valuable in and of itself - so those prices should be gone forever. Comparing to 2019 should be akin to comparing to 1950, when you could get a glass Coca Cola for a nickel or whatever.

With currency continuing to lose value at a very rapid clip, I'd say that the MSRP's are safe... for now...

yeah agreed, we've still yet to see how availability has changed for the models that had the highest premiums. so far a bunch of greys are just dumping everything but time will tell. i think the AD availability will be lagging quite a bit behind greys but even in 2018-2019 it wasn't easy to get 10 or so models. pepsis are still hovering near 100% premiums which puts us back to like mid-end of 2019 i think?

[Andy0331]

Originally Posted by dmash

You know what like new RO was selling for from mainstream greys just FOUR years ago right? And this is asks, you could buy $14-$15k all day. I think they retailed for just shy of $18k at this point.

Exactly, anyone who thinks this can't or won't "crash" back to reality hasn't been through hard economic times before. What made them skyrocket to absurd levels so quickly? Only "hype" & the introduction of too much "free money" flying around. Sure, we can talk about inflation and the devaluation of the USD, but are those people looking at the USD vs. other currencies? This is global and will have far reaching effects.

Housing is correcting, cars are correcting; if you think a "timepiece" that sells for as much or more than houses or cars aren't going to correct, I think you're delusional.

"But guys with money will still buy". Sure, but at a significant discount. Also, those with the means will also start snapping up discounted real estate, etc. The competition for real dollars is going to heat up.

I'm not preaching "the sky is falling"; far from it. This is a natural response to what the global economy has been working towards for years. Those that thought values of everything only increase are the only ones who should be shocked. People that have the means will re-enter all the various markets over the next 6-12 months and realize life changing gains in the following 5-10 years, if not sooner.

[NeoDough]

Originally Posted by Andy0331

Exactly, anyone who thinks this can't or won't "crash" back to reality hasn't been through hard economic times before. What made them skyrocket to absurd levels so quickly? Only "hype" & the introduction of too much "free money" flying around. Sure, we can talk about inflation and the devaluation of the USD, but are those people looking at the USD vs. other currencies? This is global and will have far reaching effects.

Housing is correcting, cars are correcting; if you think a "timepiece" that sells for as much or more than houses or cars aren't going to correct, I think you're delusional.

"But guys with money will still buy". Sure, but at a significant discount. Also, those with the means will also start snapping up discounted real estate, etc. The competition for real dollars is going to heat up.

I'm not preaching "the sky is falling"; far from it. This is a natural response to what the global economy has been working towards for years. Those that thought values of everything only increase are the only ones who should be shocked. People that have the means will re-enter all the various markets over the next 6-12 months and realize life changing gains in the following 5-10 years, if not sooner.

All of this -- absolutely dead on.

[eijiboy]

just recently sold panda new for 33k

[GoWarriors]

Originally Posted by Andy0331

Exactly, anyone who thinks this can't or won't "crash" back to reality hasn't been through hard economic times before. What made them skyrocket to absurd levels so quickly? Only "hype" & the introduction of too much "free money" flying around. Sure, we can talk about inflation and the devaluation of the USD, but are those people looking at the USD vs. other currencies? This is global and will have far reaching effects.

Housing is correcting, cars are correcting; if you think a "timepiece" that sells for as much or more than houses or cars aren't going to correct, I think you're delusional.

"But guys with money will still buy". Sure, but at a significant discount. Also, those with the means will also start snapping up discounted real estate, etc. The competition for real dollars is going to heat up.

I'm not preaching "the sky is falling"; far from it. This is a natural response to what the global economy has been working towards for years. Those that thought values of everything only increase are the only ones who should be shocked. People that have the means will re-enter all the various markets over the next 6-12 months and realize life changing gains in the following 5-10 years, if not sooner.

CPI is imperfect, but CPI is the best measure of currency devaluation that we have.

Currency vs currency is interesting also, but then your comparing multiple moving targets. CPI at least attempts to tell you what USD is worth relative to a basket of consumer goods. It's the best - or least worst - way of measuring how devalued the USD is over any period of time.

The Swiss Franc zone has experienced very little inflation, by the way. Last I read they were around 2.5%.

I very much expect watch prices to continue going down - and have said as much in here.

But a return to 2019 prices isn't realistic, given that the USD has devalued since then. Even if we get a severe recession, it will likely be stagflationary in nature - less asset depreciation that a deflationary recession such as 2008.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by GoWarriors

CPI is imperfect, but CPI is the best measure of currency devaluation that we have.

Currency vs currency is interesting also, but then your comparing multiple moving targets. CPI at least attempts to tell you what USD is worth relative to a basket of consumer goods. It's the best - or least worst - way of measuring how devalued the USD is over any period of time.

The Swiss Franc zone has experienced very little inflation, by the way. Last I read they were around 2.5%.

I very much expect watch prices to continue going down - and have said as much in here.

But a return to 2019 prices isn't realistic, given that the USD has devalued since then. Even if we get a sever recession, it will likely be stagflationary in nature - less asset depreciation.

You make valid points but then you also say stuff like ‘comparing to 2019 prices is like comparing to 1950’, which is pretty far fetched (and simply not even close to reality). Not sure if you were making a joke but yeah.


By the way, when most of us discuss 2018, pre hype levels, we don’t mean the dollar amount literally, we mean the dollar amount in relation to MSRP. If you think that can’t be touched again idk what to tell you.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Andy0331

Exactly, anyone who thinks this can't or won't "crash" back to reality hasn't been through hard economic times before. What made them skyrocket to absurd levels so quickly? Only "hype" & the introduction of too much "free money" flying around. Sure, we can talk about inflation and the devaluation of the USD, but are those people looking at the USD vs. other currencies? This is global and will have far reaching effects.

Housing is correcting, cars are correcting; if you think a "timepiece" that sells for as much or more than houses or cars aren't going to correct, I think you're delusional.

"But guys with money will still buy". Sure, but at a significant discount. Also, those with the means will also start snapping up discounted real estate, etc. The competition for real dollars is going to heat up.

I'm not preaching "the sky is falling"; far from it. This is a natural response to what the global economy has been working towards for years. Those that thought values of everything only increase are the only ones who should be shocked. People that have the means will re-enter all the various markets over the next 6-12 months and realize life changing gains in the following 5-10 years, if not sooner.

Yup, agree on practically all points. Stock market keeps getting routing you’re going to have some more newbie traders on more margin calls. That’s an entire other conversation though at how insane it is that all these guys with $10k and not a single shred of trading experience could also get $10k of margin (and absolutely threw it at meme stuff and other hype stocks). They’re just down their actual cash flow at this point, wait until the calls come and how quick that spirals out of control….which as we see, has directly coincided with a Bitcoin and watch market rout.

This is also why I think we’re not done with prices dropping on watches. I think we’re taking a breather but the worse is yet to come. I was a freshly minted adult in 2008 but I saw then what people had to liquidate to pay their bills and some guys are in another universe if they think wrist trinkets are a priority to keep in a time like that. Is really depressing actually, not looking forward to all that might come with a further watch market crash back to normality.

[GoWarriors]

Originally Posted by dmash

You make valid points but then you also say stuff like ‘comparing to 2019 prices is like comparing to 1950’, which is pretty far fetched (and simply not even close to reality). Not sure if you were making a joke but yeah.


By the way, when most of us discuss 2018, pre hype levels, we don’t mean the dollar amount literally, we mean the dollar amount in relation to MSRP. If you think that can’t be touched again idk what to tell you.

I very much expect a return to MSRP - or less - for lots of watches!

[GoWarriors]

Originally Posted by dmash

Yup, agree on practically all points. Stock market keeps getting routing you’re going to have some more newbie traders on more margin calls, that’s an entire other conversation though at how insane it is that all these guys with $10k and not a single shred of trading experience could also get $10k of margin (and absolutely threw it at meme stuff and other hype stocks). They’re just down their actual cash flow at this point, wait until the calls come and how quick that spirals out of control….which as we see, has directly coincided with a Bitcoin and watch market rout as well.

This is also why I think we’re not done with prices plummeting, I think we’re taking a breather but the worse is yet to come. I was a freshly minted adult in 2008 but I saw then what people had to liquidate to pay their bills and some are in another universe if they think wrist trinkets are a priority to keep in a time like that. Is really depressing actually, not looking forward to all that might come with a further watch market crash back to normality.

I think better historical comparisons to our current scenario might be the currency crises of Argentina, the 70's stagflations...

2008 was lack of liquidity. 2022 is too much liquidity. It should end up looking quite different...

Inflation took several years to control in the 1970's... from ~1973-1981...

This is why I say that 2019 prices may be like 1950's prices...

[dmash]

Originally Posted by GoWarriors

I think better historical comparisons to our current scenario might be the currency crises of Argentina, the 70's stagflations...

2008 was lack of liquidity. 2022 is too much liquidity. It should end up looking quite different...

Inflation took several years to control in the 1970's... from ~1973-1981...

This is why I say that 2019 prices may be like 1950's prices...

And you also had a fed who wouldn’t control rates, unlike our current situation (albeit they’ve taken too long in my opinion) but they have support from both parties to do so it seems. Most economists I know agree that there’s not even a chance this decade pans out like the 70s did.

But this is more open discussion, let’s stick to watch prices falling! Hah

[GoWarriors]

Originally Posted by dmash

And you also had a fed who wouldn’t control rates, unlike our current situation (albeit they’ve taken too long in my opinion) but they have support from both parties to do so it seems. Most economists I know agree that there’s not even a chance this decade pans out like the 70s did.

But this is more open discussion, let’s stick to watch prices falling! Hah

The Fed of today is much less aggressive than was the Fed back then.

The current Fed is the least aggressive Fed in the history of the Fed - and by a wide margin. The Fed has never had a funds rate that was over 700bps behind CPI - not ever anywhere close.

[Andy0331]

Originally Posted by GoWarriors

But a return to 2019 prices isn't realistic, given that the USD has devalued since then. Even if we get a severe recession, it will likely be stagflationary in nature - less asset depreciation that a deflationary recession such as 2008.

I didn't mean to say that the actual USD price would be identical, however MSRP and discounts from MSRP at some AD's & Greys is very likely to return within 6-12 months. I may be wrong of course, but "unlimited", still in production models are going to see a huge hit. Limited production & discontinued models will be less influenced by the overall market due to actual scarcity, not the imagined "shortage" that has plagued virtually everything else.

Frankly, I'm happy about it. I'm well positioned to capitalize on a return to sanity, both for my ability to actually purchase a few watches I want and doing some bottom feeding in the stock market.

[Incroyable12]

Originally Posted by GoWarriors

I think better historical comparisons to our current scenario might be the currency crises of Argentina, the 70's stagflations...

2008 was lack of liquidity. 2022 is too much liquidity. It should end up looking quite different...

Inflation took several years to control in the 1970's... from ~1973-1981...

This is why I say that 2019 prices may be like 1950's prices...

Argentina is constantly having currency crises. If I recall their inflation rate is now 70% plus.

It's truly remarkable how one of the world's richest nations became like that.

[Ensign]

Originally Posted by Incroyable12

The jeweler featured on Producer Michael is starting to liquidate some of his inventory and making it sound like a One Time Only Deal:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bEusozHFS8s

There was a thread about this already. That jeweler isn’t doing anyone any “favors;” he’s trying to find someone to buy his watches before the prices drop anymore.

[HAL330]

two things we cannot escape..


Markets go UP and they go DOWN

and Supply = Demand


Those two realities mean that prices WILL go up again ... and... they will go down again..

Buy the watch you want to WEAR..

[Incroyable12]

Originally Posted by Ensign

There was a thread about this already. That jeweler isn’t doing anyone any “favors;” he’s trying to find someone to buy his watches before the prices drop anymore.

Which thread was it?

[theflywrist]

Originally Posted by Andy0331

Exactly, anyone who thinks this can't or won't "crash" back to reality hasn't been through hard economic times before. What made them skyrocket to absurd levels so quickly? Only "hype" & the introduction of too much "free money" flying around. Sure, we can talk about inflation and the devaluation of the USD, but are those people looking at the USD vs. other currencies? This is global and will have far reaching effects.

Housing is correcting, cars are correcting; if you think a "timepiece" that sells for as much or more than houses or cars aren't going to correct, I think you're delusional.

"But guys with money will still buy". Sure, but at a significant discount. Also, those with the means will also start snapping up discounted real estate, etc. The competition for real dollars is going to heat up.

I'm not preaching "the sky is falling"; far from it. This is a natural response to what the global economy has been working towards for years. Those that thought values of everything only increase are the only ones who should be shocked. People that have the means will re-enter all the various markets over the next 6-12 months and realize life changing gains in the following 5-10 years, if not sooner.

100% agreed.
I hate the argument that implies guys with money are stupid
Realistically, ADs and retailers will more than ever want to please said "rich" folks. Not to mention the heavier watches would be the hardest to move, hence more supply, hence way lower prices.

I've said it for a long time, there is no intrinsic value in a modern mass produced produced watch, nor has there been more demand relative to supply; only a demand to "invest" or flip, nothing more. A modern watch is barely "collectible" and once people get that reality check, they will look back and think to themselves how they got so delusional to pay feb pricing in hopes to "invest" in a watch.

If I had a modern watch that I dont love(or wear) and bought to invest, I would cash out with whatever I could get and move on, because any logical person can see clearly that it will only get worse, and we will be back to the old days.
Now if you have a vintage watch, a 3700, 5402, a Stella day date, then you are sitting on true collectibles IMO, and even if those are affected, I believe the demand for them will always exist.

[Incroyable12]

Chrono24 just sent me an email saying some Patek 3800s I was watching dropped several thousand dollars.

[ronricks]

Originally Posted by Incroyable12

There's a factory barked Rolex DD with factory wood dial in excellent condition that's also been sitting around for several days at $27k.

The 18000 series day dates are coming down in price fast. These skyrocketed in the last year.

[GB-man]

I don’t see any indication of a clear bottom yet. If you aren’t in this to make money then no big deal.There’s not really any buyers right now for over msrp AP, Rolex and Patek. Lord knows how far Richard milles have to fall. If a dealer wants to lower that Royal oak to market price to sell it only begets a new low on the next one that sells as buyers want to set a new low when buying anything right now.

It’s very simple. Don’t buy anything for over msrp plus tax. Then your downside is palatable as these are luxuries after all and if you’re buying you’re probably a watch geek not a speculator.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by GB-man

It’s very simple. Don’t buy anything for over msrp plus tax.

Exactly, and support your local AD.