Talking Stocks 2.0

[JParm]

Added to AMZN at 2960. Added to FSLY, LVGO and MSFT as well.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/14/tech...fa-survey.html

I don't think it's a surprise that tech is crowded - where else do you hide during these times? The last few days just shows that tech isn't immune to pullbacks, just like everything else. Doesn't mean it is a bad place to be...

[logo]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Added to AMZN at 2960. Added to FSLY, LVGO and MSFT as well.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/14/tech...fa-survey.html

I don't think it's a surprise that tech is crowded - where else do you hide during these times? The last few days just shows that tech isn't immune to pullbacks, just like everything else. Doesn't mean it is a bad place to be...

Not even hiding in tech, tech is the future. But the future isn’t today (*cough* TSLA), so its a justified pull back. I have not added much yet apart from more NET and gold miners, and want to wait until tech earnings come out before deciding to add more. I’d expect the next opportunity/pull back to be in about 10 business days if the past few weeks are any indication haha. Have my eye on a few non-tech things though.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by logo

Not even hiding in tech, tech is the future. But the future isn’t today (*cough* TSLA), so its a justified pull back. I have not added much yet apart from more NET and gold miners, and want to wait until tech earnings come out before deciding to add more. I’d expect the next opportunity/pull back to be in about 10 business days if the past few weeks are any indication haha. Have my eye on a few non-tech things though.

Agree that the pullback is justified - too far, too fast as many of us have said.

I also would like to add to a few non-tech companies, but it's hard for me to justify with all the ongoing closures. Will continue to monitor them though throughout earnings to see just how affected they may be.

[beshannon]

Things catching a bid in late afternoon trading, still too high IMHO and I am looking for profit taking trims while adding value. Watching for a rotation out of tech as it is very crowded and toppy while energy and financials lag, with financials presenting some great longer term opportunities.

Longer term themes shaping up too, I do not want to derail the thread but there are some ideas that need to be researched for future potential.

[htrap2294]

Been holding 200 shares of WFC since last week at $24.30 a share, thinking about adding 150 more or so. What do y'all think?

[HTXlex]

jpeezy what are your strikes and dates on FSLY the other day?

[JParm]

Originally Posted by HTXlex

jpeezy what are your strikes and dates on FSLY the other day?

I luckily sold out of one on Friday at $55 / Sep 18th for a 633% return on where I bought it; it was at nearly 800% at one point and I decided to take profits on that call to stop the bleed.

Hindsight, was the right call based on the last few days...but if I had waited until Sep - who knows?

I've got another Dec call to catch any tailwinds from Q2 & Q3 earnings, along with my long position.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by htrap2294

Been holding 200 shares of WFC since last week at $24.30 a share, thinking about adding 150 more or so. What do y'all think?

I have been adding for the long term this will not be a short term trade

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

I'll say this - take a look at any speeches made today and economic plans for the future.

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Looks like I'm the one that ended up derailing based on my initial response.

Guys, just take read the news today and see what the main candidate has to say about the economic future.

This is probably toeing the line already, as we aren't supposed to post about politics here - but I do want to be helpful without having to PM everyone.

Exactly. Investing is sometimes about spotting macro trends in areas where there may be a scale up in activity, materials or labor. This would be possibly for future program with long term goals

[RyanO]

Positive vaccine news from Moderna lifting markets.

Futures +300

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/14/stoc...lose-news.html

[avidflyer]

Originally Posted by RyanO

Positive vaccine news from Moderna lifting markets.

Futures +300

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/14/stoc...lose-news.html

I think the study had 40 people in it, good sign but extremely crazy for the 300 point rise

[scarlet knight]

I bailed out of a few cloud stocks. Not my comfort zone. Out of ZM, DDOG, TDOC. Stayed in DOCU.

Got into BJ, LOW, WMT, GS, ASML. Rotating from stay at home to economic recovery. I hope.

Count on the cloud stocks that I sold to take off shortly.

[Zack21]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

I bailed out of a few cloud stocks. Not my comfort zone. Out of ZM, DDOG, TDOC. Stayed in DOCU.

Got into BJ, LOW, WMT, GS, ASML. Rotating from stay at home to economic recovery. I hope.

Count on the cloud stocks that I sold to take off shortly.

Ha Ha that is my typical sales experience also.

[JParm]

Some good info for the FSLY folks:

https://medium.com/ridgevc/on-the-ro...y-a3ce8765b27a

Tough Friday - early parts of today, but a nice recovery into close for a company that is very much fundamentally sound.

[AshCashEmAll]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Some good info for the FSLY folks:

https://medium.com/ridgevc/on-the-ro...y-a3ce8765b27a

Tough Friday - early parts of today, but a nice recovery into close for a company that is very much fundamentally sound.

Thanks for the read. Think I might add to my position tomorrow. It’s at a great price !


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[JParm]

Very suspicious of what seems to be another rally for cyclicals on vaccine news here.

For one, none of what Moderna is reporting is new - this is just the fully published article of what they initially reported a few weeks back on Phase 1 testing. I don't think we're that much closer to mass availability here.

Secondly, we've seen this story before, with airlines, hotels, cruise lines, etc. - big jumps up, only to see it fade after the euphoria of news goes away.

Third, we're still in the midst of closures - with no end in sight. Does the public need a reminder about what just happened in CA?

Let's not forget that the stimulus ends in July, with nothing passed yet for the future. The end of this month could get brutal.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Very suspicious of what seems to be another rally for cyclicals on vaccine news here.

For one, none of what Moderna is reporting is new - this is just the fully published article of what they initially reported a few weeks back on Phase 1 testing. I don't think we're that much closer to mass availability here.

Secondly, we've seen this story before, with airlines, hotels, cruise lines, etc. - big jumps up, only to see it fade after the euphoria of news goes away.

Third, we're still in the midst of closures - with no end in sight. Does the public need a reminder about what just happened in CA?

Let's not forget that the stimulus ends in July, with nothing passed yet for the future. The end of this month could get brutal.

I am selling this news, the NASDAQ is flashing a warning sign and the tech rally is overheated.

While I am hopeful that the vaccine news continues to be good, the reality is that we are a very long way from production and distribution.

Consider the irony of airline stocks rising when most US carriers have flight schedules that are below 50% or normal and US travelers are banned from many places.

This rally is great for watching balances on paper but it is getting very toppy from a technical point of view and protecting principal is my number one goal even if I miss a move.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I am selling this news, the NASDAQ is flashing a warning sign and the tech rally is overheated.

While I am hopeful that the vaccine news continues to be good, the reality is that we are a very long way from production and distribution.

Consider the irony of airline stocks rising when most US carriers have flight schedules that are below 50% or normal and US travelers are banned from many places.

This rally is great for watching balances on paper but it is getting very toppy from a technical point of view and protecting principal is my number one goal even if I miss a move.

As am I, though not out of my tech stocks - I'm looking to break back even on SAVE here and will shed it as soon as I'm close.

[healer]

Moderna will be doing phase 3 clinical trial starting end of the month... I’ll expect to have a vaccine in 6-9 months;) keep it long guys.... the more we get closer to that date we will have other company in phase 3 trial...

[logo]

I will agree that we will probably see some fading after the vaccine hype wears down (or more as we hear about good/bad earnings). However the news out from Moderna I think is actually more significant than just a reiteration of what they said earlier, and is sustained good news. In the medical community (and investing community) there has been reservation as to how “legit” Moderna was when they initially came on the scene. The fact that they have published their Phase 1 data in the worlds premier medical journal does carry weight in my view and helps solidifies them among the ranks of viable vaccine candidates. More vaccine candidates, better chances for success. Phase 2/3 studies are entirely different story, but we’ll keep our fingers crossed.

[JParm]

Rotation out of tech continues for the most part, though as I said, I'm holding pat there.

NFLX reports tomorrow, with MSFT reporting next week. We'll have to continue to monitor how tech vs. everyone else's earnings are, and if the shift continues towards cyclicals or it makes everyone jump back into what has been the tech safety blanket during COVID (before this week, of course).

It still amazes me to see people jumping into the cruise lines at this point. I don't think that its an industry that will recover all too quickly, but just look at the numbers today - RCL is up nearly 16%. Insane.

[beshannon]

No legs at all to this bounce, this rally is tired and overbought, MRNA gave back 10% of its pop and INO is down 8%

These pump and dump news events are bad for the markets and while GS was a blowout beat it is not enough to keep this move going higher

[logo]

Originally Posted by beshannon

No legs at all to this bounce, this rally is tired and overbought, MRNA gave back 10% of its pop and INO is down 8%

These pump and dump news events are bad for the markets and while GS was a blowout beat it is not enough to keep this move going higher

Couldn’t agree more. There is a major disconnect between the science/medicine and how it’s being portrayed/understood by media and analysts, just adding fuel to an already volatile market, and to see things rocketing/falling so quickly with the pump and dumps just drives more panic.

It is funny how the herd mentality takes over and everyone flees tech for whatever the flavor of the week is. I’m not too worried - I expect tech to outperform expectations this earnings season, and buyers will be back. Now is the time to load the boat in my view, and I don’t mean CCL.

[supernova]

Even at the stage MRNA is at, is it not still 6-9 months before vaccine final approval and probably another 1 year before world is vaccinated? That means another 18-21 months of reduced revenue for travel and hospitality and if all the vaccine trials go to plan.

No idea why people are flocking to these stocks on that news unless you are super forward looking (3+ years out). Not to sound cliched but could it be those Robin Hooders?

[JParm]

NASDAQ gaining ground on DOW.

Seeing a bit of fade in certain areas, but the airlines are still cruising. Looks like I sold out a bit early on SAVE.

[supernova]

I rotated out of LUV and BA into more tech last week too. Not a good decision today but let's see how that materializes in the next week or so.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by supernova

I rotated out of LUV and BA into more tech last week too. Not a good decision today but let's see how that materializes in the next week or so.

Yes, I was able to get out just a bit under break-even this morning...didn't expect SAVE to run up another 5% after.

Oh well, I'm happy to have shed the weight.

[JParm]

https://www.barrons.com/articles/can...ks-51594822773

For my APHA folks.

I've always said that they were best in class for the MJ stocks, and this merger would be another step towards greater exposure.

[logo]

Originally Posted by supernova

Even at the stage MRNA is at, is it not still 6-9 months before vaccine final approval and probably another 1 year before world is vaccinated? That means another 18-21 months of reduced revenue for travel and hospitality and if all the vaccine trials go to plan.

No idea why people are flocking to these stocks on that news unless you are super forward looking (3+ years out). Not to sound cliched but could it be those Robin Hooders?

Depends. Here is the link to Moderna's phase 3 study: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/...&draw=2&rank=1

You'll note that they plan to start recruitment end of the month, and plan to enroll 30,000 participants. Follow-up is UP TO 2 years, i.e. October 2022. That means, they probably expect to administer all doses before October 2020 (so that they have 2 years of follow-up on everyone). If they are finding clear benefit and limited risks in the early stages of follow-up, potentially the trial could end early on clear benefit. In that case, I'd suspect they'd start ramping production prior to this if they felt it was working and that there might be a case for early emergency use. However, the point at which they determine that available evidence outweighs unknown long-term risk is unclear, and might partially depend how "bad" things get through the fall. So, timeline could be variable and not set in stone, but I'd suspect it's perhaps not impossible to see some approved non-experimental vaccinations happening in the 6-9 month time frame.

Also of importance is that there may well be multiple vaccines approved from different companies, which may affect timelines.

[kearez]

Decreasing my position in BA the past two days. Looking adding JPM as it’s still down 11%. Or might just wait it out there.

[scarlet knight]

I recently added JPM and GS. Best in sector.