Talking Stocks 2.0

[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

And then on AAPL there is this, my gains were nearly double on my position so I had no problem taking profits today.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/359441...on-probe-axios

https://seekingalpha.com/news/359403...oft-and-amazon

https://seekingalpha.com/news/359363...probe-in-italy

I own AAPL in mutual funds, 401k's and IRA's

I trimmed because it made sense to same with AMZN that I halved last week. MSFT is not a large percentage of my trading account and not as over valued. I would add to MSFT on any serious move down. My chart at the top of the page was one part of my sell strategy.

I am not in NFLX, GOOGL, FB, NFLX or NVDA. The space is too hot for me.

And the market has rolled over hard now down 325

Originally Posted by beshannon

https://seekingalpha.com/news/359441...-favored-names

There is investing for the long term and being prudent.

All valid points...however, there's always the bull case as well. I'll counter with thoughts from Ophir Gottlieb from earlier today.

We can all agree that tech has led the market heavily up to now...the question is can it sustain?

I'm not making any moves through this week, but will obviously continue to monitor to see if the downward pressure moves throughout next week as well.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

All valid points...however, there's always the bull case as well. I'll counter with thoughts from Ophir Gottlieb from earlier today.

We can all agree that tech has led the market heavily up to now...the question is can it sustain?

Long term I am a bull my 12-18 month window remains intact. My selling is based on my belief that we have reached a short to medium term top.

[77T]

Here in US, depending upon the upcoming relief package, how do the bulls here see navigating the insolvency that stimulus is masking?

While we can prop up sick companies, we can’t create consumer demand for their products/services.

I don’t pretend to know which ones are zombies but retail, leisure and dining seem destined for serious fallout.


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[JParm]

Originally Posted by 77T

Here in US, depending upon the upcoming relief package, how do the bulls here see navigating the insolvency that stimulus is masking?

While we can prop up sick companies, we can’t create consumer demand for their products/services.

I don’t pretend to know which ones are zombies but retail, leisure and dining seem destined for serious fallout.

Good question. I think one that really takes a major hit is retail. When you talk about the back-to-school trade and how there isn't one with all the school closures, I see them losing a lot more than the leisure / dining crowd.

[Uggi]

I've not contributed much here for a while because I haven't traded anything significant for a while - but I read this thread several times a day (best thread on the whole forum for me).
In March I sank my whole pot into shares (mainly UK and US) but I have gradually sold out to a point where I am now 80% cash with a 40%+ gain since mid-March.
As you say beshannon, I don't want to throw away my hard work over the last few months.
Equally, I understand TINA and realise that my cash pile is possibly being pecked by deflation while base is at 0.1%.
It's a tricky one. In some markets things feel like they have turned - things have opened back up, no further spikes beyond some very localised incidents, holidays are in full swing and optimism is reasonably high. News from elsewhere is not so good and that is making me cautious about investing. I'm in the "wait and see" camp for now, sat on cash and looking for opportunities.
I'm still in MSFT, AML, PERS, GOOG, NET and KO and will hold those for a long time but that is only 20% or so of my trading fund.
Very uncertain near to mid future I think.

[supernova]

Bad news from Intel as their 7nm chip delayed till end 2022 while AMD is selling 7nm chips now, which are faster and cheaper than Intel's current offering. Intel down 10% in afters while AMD up 8%

Good for me since AMD is one of my long babies, held since it was around 10 bucks and now makes up large portion of my portfolio :)

Need recoup some as today was not good for my tech heavy portfolio..

[austinp]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Not surprised at what's written in the note there, especially with what's going on in China.

I'm not an AAPL owner (stock or products) and do believe that what affects AAPL should sometimes should be viewed in a vacuum and not totally related to tech, as they are a seller of consumer goods first. Its no different than comparing NFLX to AMZN (cloud / web services) at times. People just think MAGA / FAANG and immediately go "tech!".

The FAANG and MAGA stocks have been very good to me. They are a big reason I should be able to retire earlier than I originally planned to. I generally try not to over think things.

Thanks again for all the great input gents!


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[JParm]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/24/soft...r-traders.html

Pre-market pointing to another leg down for the NASDAQ. Is it another healthy pullback for a sector that has carried the market, or is it a sign of larger things to come? If tech goes south, many believe that it could take entire market with it.

I'm currently in the buy the dip mindset, but will be waiting until Monday to make any informed decisions.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/24/soft...r-traders.html

Pre-market pointing to another leg down for the NASDAQ. Is it another healthy pullback for a sector that has carried the market, or is it a sign of larger things to come? If tech goes south, many believe that it could take entire market with it.

I'm currently in the buy the dip mindset, but will be waiting until Monday to make any informed decisions.

I have been taking profits and selling losers.

I believe we are heading lower

https://seekingalpha.com/article/436...-re-adjustment

[beshannon]

VZ another solid story despite the current business challenges

4.4% Yield, up 2.9% today to 57.52, solid earnings beat. I would have liked to add more if they were down but I will hold my position.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/435...-income-stream

INTC getting hurt, I am holding my position as my cost basis is 21 with a yield on cost of 6.6%

AMZN and AAPL both getting hammered again

With the S&P still above 3200 I am holding cash and waiting for better opportunities

Generally not a fan of REIT's but I do own STOR and I am now looking at MPW

[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

VZ another solid story despite the current business challenges

4.4% Yield, up 2.9% today to 57.52, solid earnings beat. I would have liked to add more if they were down but I will hold my position.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/435...-income-stream

INTC getting hurt, I am holding my position as my cost basis is 21 with a yield on cost of 6.6%

AMZN and AAPL both getting hammered again

With the S&P still above 3200 I am holding cash and waiting for better opportunities

Generally not a fan of REIT's but I do own STOR and I am now looking at MPW

Did not stay as disciplined as I would have liked and already made move, when I had been planning on waiting until Monday

Took profit on a couple calls and added to my position in LVGO. 102 was too attractive.

Haven't sold any longs and definitely don't plan to through the day.

[RyanO]

I added to MSFT, FB and EBS on the weakness yesterday. Looking like I should have been patient now, but hindsight is 20/20. Pretty significant correction already in the Nasdaq in just a few weeks, but maybe we're in for more pain. I don't know, but hope to have the stomach to hold my positions for the long term.

Tried to add to my LVGO just above 100 where it bounced off of support recently - missed it, good pickup at 102.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by RyanO

I added to MSFT, FB and EBS on the weakness yesterday. Looking like I should have been patient now, but hindsight is 20/20. Pretty significant correction already in the Nasdaq in just a few weeks, but maybe we're in for more pain. I don't know, but hope to have the stomach to hold my positions for the long term.

Tried to add to my LVGO just above 100 where it bounced off of support recently - missed it, good pickup at 102.

One thing that I keep coming back to is Karen Finerman's statement - yes, tech is hot and heavy, but I don't know where else I would put the money (paraphrasing).

TINA rings true here and I'm not one to time the market.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

One thing that I keep coming back to is Karen Finerman's statement - yes, tech is hot and heavy, but I don't know where else I would put the money (paraphrasing).

TINA rings true here and I'm not one to time the market.

While I do not disagree with the sentiment I have a problem with the execution.

Yes the TINA trade is real. If I have money to invest why would I buy the 5 most expensive stocks in an over heated index? Hoping they go even higher?

I would rather protect capital at this point, wait for them to come back down and consider a reentry. Or search for beaten down names with fortress balance sheets and dividends.

But buying AMZN at 3300, AAPL at 399 or NFLX at 575 just does not make sense to me.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by RyanO

I added to MSFT, FB and EBS on the weakness yesterday. Looking like I should have been patient now, but hindsight is 20/20. Pretty significant correction already in the Nasdaq in just a few weeks, but maybe we're in for more pain. I don't know, but hope to have the stomach to hold my positions for the long term.

Tried to add to my LVGO just above 100 where it bounced off of support recently - missed it, good pickup at 102.

MSFT with a target of 240 could be a good pickup here, I am holding what I have since I averaged down back in March. Long term they will be fine but there could be some short term pain ahead as tech needs to cool off.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

While I do not disagree with the sentiment I have a problem with the execution.

Yes the TINA trade is real. If I have money to invest why would I buy the 5 most expensive stocks in an over heated index? Hoping they go even higher?

I would rather protect capital at this point, wait for them to come back down and consider a reentry. Or search for beaten down names with fortress balance sheets and dividends.

But buying AMZN at 3300, AAPL at 399 or NFLX at 575 just does not make sense to me.

Don't disagree with you there, and have not and will not add to those 3, save for AMZN at a bigger dip.

Definitely have to pick and choose where to put it; not a one size fits all by any means. Agree that MSFT isn't too bad around here, but the other mega techs are still a bit pricey if looking to add.

I know you're not a FB guy, but if I'm looking at them, 215 would be the target. If AMZN can get below 2800, I'll add there as well.

[logo]

I am OK with my cost basis on most of my tech names and believe that strong earnings, a good balance sheet and growth still count and can allow for outperfomance or even divergence from the broader market (e.g. MSFT). As such, I'll add if they really dip, but otherwise will hold the course. My non-tech names are all hanging in there pretty well, and my gold miners are just getting started for a massive run IMO. Whenever I've tried to time my entry and exit I always end up buying back higher, so I'll press on this time I think.

My belief is that the market has divergence, and with good reason. As MSFT and TSCO showed us this week, some companies can outperform in the current environment. Similarly, others are hitting rock bottom (cruise lines), and that makes sense given the climate. With such large global change, I think it's not so much a market that has failed to keep up with tech or a tech bubble, but rather a market that is changing it's view on what holds long term value. There was a chart earlier that showed the number of companies above the 50d MA has dropped - I think that is appropriate because if we think back to early June, we had UAL at 48, CCL at 25, AXP at 112 and as we all know, the earnings don't support that. In the "new normal" which will persist for the foreseeable future, there necessarily will be readjustment to what is considered valuable.

I'm not a super active trader, and don't have the skill to recognize important patterns with any accuracy. I'm investing with only a smallish amount to hopefully make a bit of extra walking around/Rolex money, so I don't have the ability to add on all the dips/play the highs and lows, and with my regular job I don't have the ability to follow and engage in the market on sudden moves. I'm investing with a 2-5 year horizon so in the end, I sleep better at night reminding myself why I own the stocks that I own - I bought them because I'm a believer in the company, and believer in the demand the company will have despite any economic downturn or shutdowns. Investor shakiness and market dips happen; ride the wave and know it'll turn out higher on the other side. Do your DD, know and believe in what you own.

[JParm]

Compared with where we seemed to be heading early this morning, today's close doesn't seem too bad at all.

I'm sure we'll still see more rockiness as we hit big tech earnings next week (AMZN, GOOGL, FB), but if the market reacts the way it did today, I'll view these as buy the dip opportunities unless we get a clearer picture of a big march southward.

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Compared with where we seemed to be heading early this morning, today's close doesn't seem too bad at all.

I'm sure we'll still see more rockiness as we hit big tech earnings next week (AMZN, GOOGL, FB), but if the market reacts the way it did today, I'll view these as buy the dip opportunities unless we get a clearer picture of a big march southward.

Was thinking the same. Was good to see some of these names catch a bid, and I think the pullback we’ve had as been pretty healthy. Having said that I’m not in Apple, NFLX or TSLA, so don’t pay a ton of attention there for now (Apple has run away from me, admittedly...)

This morning things looked pretty bleak, and was honestly expecting things to fall apart. Today is a fine example of why I’m not always a fan of stop loss orders, though I occasionally use them and appreciate that they have a place.

The upcoming earnings, and how the markets react, will definitely be interesting to say the least.

If we pull back I’d like to add on weakness, but I really hope the markets don’t crack as that isn’t good for anybody here (except maybe the shorts...)


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[JParm]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/27/tech...or-stocks.html

Big week in earnings. I'll be watching FB, GOOGL, AMZN, APHA and PINS. I do like how the article above talks about the "baby bull vs. big bubble" market that seems to take place between the two sides of the story currently.

Also, a good note below. We tend to get into the price of stocks on a day to day basis around here, but the most important thing is investing in valuable companies.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/436...ng-right-price

[beshannon]

Doing research this morning, patiently waiting

[RyanO]

Glad I added to EBS last week. Getting a nice little 4 % pre-market bid on news that they are expanding their vaccine manufacturing deal with AstraZeneca

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/em...ine-2020-07-27

I think this company is going to quietly be one of the COVID success stories

[JParm]

Strong showing thus far this morning in tech; not surprised as we run into major earnings here.

Nothing has changed for me - still holding pat through earnings and looking to add on weakness both into / out of earnings, if any.

[scarlet knight]

Anyone own gold? ETFs or gold mining stocks?

[JParm]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Anyone own gold? ETFs or gold mining stocks?

Owned GOLD at one point before taking profits a couple months back..thought it couldn't really run higher than the 26 I sold at.

Would like to get back in, but too pricey at this point.

[logo]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Anyone own gold? ETFs or gold mining stocks?

I’m in GDX and BTG. I expect both have a long way to run still and earnings/guidance coming up plus gold headed over 2000 will only strengthen that. My 6 month target is 60 for GDX, 10 for BTG. I see no reason for any major pull backs in gold/miners, apart from some profit taking days. I really like BTG though - you can see their recent preliminary report from a few weeks ago: record revenue, record profit, record low operating costs, and increasing their dividend.

[AshCashEmAll]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Anyone own gold? ETFs or gold mining stocks?

I own gold bullion. Buy an ounce randomly throughout the years and then bought a bunch when stocks crashed due to Covid.


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[RBradleigh]

Let it finally be happening! Though with my luck will come the sharp downward candle stick tomorrow

[jltait]

Originally Posted by RBradleigh

Let it finally be happening! Though with my luck will come the sharp downward candle stick tomorrow

Gold gets too pricey so people buy the machine made stuff.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by RBradleigh

Let it finally be happening! Though with my luck will come the sharp downward candle stick tomorrow

its been unable to get past 10.5k 4 or so times in the last half year so it was just a matter of time