Prices slump by up to 50% for discontinued Rolex watches (Watchpro)

[johnsonsxusfrt]

Originally Posted by T3rmina1

I've seen Takuya, SohAIS (Aamir of AIS Watches), OCROLEXGUY (Patrick Aziz), AU_911tt (Chase of Nashville Watches), & JUSTROLEXES (Tony Geha)

BODYBUMP (Oscar) is inactive here, but still active on Moda.

So the only trusted dealer I haven't seen is DAVIDSW

Yup, seen all these guys there recently. They weren't all active on Moda a year ago but since it's slowed down here they've been forced to expand their network

[Benzsiam]

Originally Posted by T3rmina1

I've seen Takuya, SohAIS (Aamir of AIS Watches), OCROLEXGUY (Patrick Aziz), AU_911tt (Chase of Nashville Watches), & JUSTROLEXES (Tony Geha)

BODYBUMP (Oscar) is inactive here, but still active on Moda.

So the only trusted dealer I haven't seen is DAVIDSW

I think DAVIDSW might have his people in MODA also in different name.

[rolex_pl85]

Originally Posted by amh

I haven't seen a single TRF TS posting on Moda.

There are heaps. They usually don't post themselves but their assistants or workers will post. Like you will never see DavidSW post but his sales guys post on there.

[Rickkk]

Patek 5212a at 30k now here in the uk so very slightly below retail

[fatcows7]

For the UK

VCO black on Chrono24 - below retail
https://www.chrono24.co.uk/vacheronc...id27721514.htm
https://www.chrono24.co.uk/vacheronc...id25853571.htm
https://www.chrono24.co.uk/vacheronc...id27163825.htm

VCO blue on Chrono24 - near retail / price cuts (last two links are from subdial and i've been tracking them closely, have had a few £1k price cuts)
https://www.chrono24.co.uk/vacheronc...id27986172.htm
https://www.chrono24.co.uk/vacheronc...id26731245.htm
https://www.chrono24.co.uk/vacheronc...id26052655.htm

[ButtButt]

Originally Posted by fatcows7

For the UK

VCO black on Chrono24 - below retail
https://www.chrono24.co.uk/vacheronc...id27721514.htm
https://www.chrono24.co.uk/vacheronc...id25853571.htm
https://www.chrono24.co.uk/vacheronc...id27163825.htm

VCO blue on Chrono24 - near retail / price cuts (last two links are from subdial and i've been tracking them closely, have had a few £1k price cuts)
https://www.chrono24.co.uk/vacheronc...id27986172.htm
https://www.chrono24.co.uk/vacheronc...id26731245.htm
https://www.chrono24.co.uk/vacheronc...id26052655.htm

Good info, thanks for sharing. I wouldn't mind picking up a blue dual time when they get to retail or below.

[LJubel328]

Thought I would share an interesting e-mail I received this morning from Watch Collecting.

They recently auctioned a 5396 that ended earlier today. The auction ended at roughly 52.000 euro and failed to meet the reserve. Shortly after the auction ended, I received this:

"Hi xxx,
I hope you are well.

I wanted to come back to you regarding your interest on the 2018 PATEK PHILIPPE ANNUAL CALENDAR from Sweden.

The watch did not sold, feel free to give me a call to discuss the reserve."

What I found interesting, was that I did not even bid on the watch (though I did email them a few days ago asking to provide additional information on the case condition). If they've come to me, my guess is individuals that who actually placed a bid have also backed out.

https://watchcollecting.com/product-...paign=alert_v2

[Vince_76]

26331 panda fullset mint. Went for 41k at auction

The 15400 and 15202 I quoted earlier, among others, still sitting

[jokerjacket]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

26331 panda fullset mint. Went for 41k at auction

The 15400 and 15202 I quoted earlier, among others, still sitting

Your updates are much appreciated. Saves me the effort from having to scroll the group posts daily 😅

[psm11]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

26331 panda fullset mint. Went for 41k at auction

The 15400 and 15202 I quoted earlier, among others, still sitting

Also note (as you have pointed out many times in the past) auction prices on Moda are usually inflated.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by jokerjacket

Your updates are much appreciated. Saves me the effort from having to scroll the group posts daily ��

Thank you! Happy to help

Originally Posted by psm11

Also note (as you have pointed out many times in the past) auction prices on Moda are usually inflated.

That’s right. APs continue to trend down. 15500 fullset mint sold for 34.5k. 15510s sitting in the low 40s.

[Bstewart]

Any guesses where the 15510s will land?

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by Bstewart

Any guesses where the 15510s will land?

Crazy how the 41mms (15510) is now 30k including tax.

It’s anyone’s guess as to where it will land, but I am of the camper, but there will more or less be reversion to the historic mean, as we’ve been trending in that direction for the past nine months. The couple years of Covid and helicopter money was an anomaly.

I’d say they settle +/- 20% of MSRP + retail (mid 20s to low 30s). The upper end of that range is already there on the 15500s and 15400s

[huncho]

Originally Posted by Bstewart

Any guesses where the 15510s will land?

msrp or slight premium unless you can comfortably get them within 6 months at a boutique

[WatchEater666]

Originally Posted by vince_76

crazy how the 41mms (15510) is now 30k including tax.

It’s anyone’s guess as to where it will land, but i am of the camper, but there will more or less be reversion to the historic mean, as we’ve been trending in that direction for the past nine months. The couple years of covid and helicopter money was an anomaly.

I’d say they settle +/- 20% of msrp + retail (mid 20s to low 30s). The upper end of that range is already there on the 15500s and 15400s

+1

[Bstewart]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Crazy how the 41mms (15510) is now 30k including tax.

It’s anyone’s guess as to where it will land, but I am of the camper, but there will more or less be reversion to the historic mean, as we’ve been trending in that direction for the past nine months. The couple years of Covid and helicopter money was an anomaly.

I’d say they settle +/- 20% of MSRP + retail (mid 20s to low 30s). The upper end of that range is already there on the 15500s and 15400s

Originally Posted by huncho

msrp or slight premium unless you can comfortably get them within 6 months at a boutique

I hope you are both right!

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by huncho

msrp or slight premium unless you can comfortably get them within 6 months at a boutique

What’s a slight premium in your eyes (% over MSRP+tax)?

The thing is, even now the waits are all over the place. A close buddy of mine got a black 15510 in less than six months as his first piece. I’ve heard of others waiting for a year plus. I think there will always be some sort of disparity, even for newcomers, which is interesting since AP has full control of the POS.

[EEpro]

MSRP plus tax plus $2,500 to me is a negligible impatience tax for what it's worth

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by EEpro

MSRP plus tax plus $2,500 to me is a negligible impatience tax for what it's worth

Yeah, I’d say even 3-3.5k is

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Yeah, I’d say even 3-3.5k is

Yes if you're talking about a Royal Oak for sure.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

What’s a slight premium in your eyes (% over MSRP+tax)?

The thing is, even now the waits are all over the place. A close buddy of mine got a black 15510 in less than six months as his first piece. I’ve heard of others waiting for a year plus. I think there will always be some sort of disparity, even for newcomers, which is interesting since AP has full control of the POS.

i'd say like up to 20% for non blue dials. even during the peak of hype in 2021/22 they weren't ever impossible to get without purchase history because it seems like AP cares more about getting new customers than rolex. i just wonder if that changes now and they start pushing more of their newer customers to non ROs, especially after all the price increases and lower demand for watches. i can't imagine they let these go below msrp because that's a bad look for them. the 37mm is 26.5k now and it was 16k in 2019, so they definitely went a little crazy with the increases and now it'll be interesting to see how they back that up

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by huncho

i'd say like up to 20% for non blue dials. even during the peak of hype in 2021/22 they weren't ever impossible to get without purchase history because it seems like AP cares more about getting new customers than rolex. i just wonder if that changes now and they start pushing more of their newer customers to non ROs, especially after all the price increases and lower demand for watches. i can't imagine they let these go below msrp because that's a bad look for them. the 37mm is 26.5k now and it was 16k in 2019, so they definitely went a little crazy with the increases and now it'll be interesting to see how they back that up

Agree. The run up in MSRP has been pretty crazy. I’m interested to see what happens when the hype fully loses steam… but for now the demand is obviously there

[Kliminator]

Jacek has a 15450 listed for $33k. This one is discontinued and they don't make the 37mm in white dial anymore but MSRP for 15550 (37mm) is $26.5k. So that's still like 15% above retail plus tax. Just a data point

[jokerjacket]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Thank you! Happy to help



That’s right. APs continue to trend down. 15500 fullset mint sold for 34.5k. 15510s sitting in the low 40s.

Another data point. 2017 15400 black dial full set went for 30.8.

[Etschell]

A 15400 15450 or 15500 is a good 15k watch. It's not worth more than that imo.

You can get a prx for 500 bucks.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by Kliminator

Jacek has a 15450 listed for $33k. This one is discontinued and they don't make the 37mm in white dial anymore but MSRP for 15550 (37mm) is $26.5k. So that's still like 15% above retail plus tax. Just a data point

These go for the high 20s on MODA

Originally Posted by jokerjacket

Another data point. 2017 15400 black dial full set went for 30.8.

Thanks! Just saw this. Was mint too. Man… these came down a ton.

________

Fullset RG olive DD - asking 47.5k. These have come down. BNIB sold for 48.5k

[sigma089]

Hmm, I love the silver 15450. Really curious where these are headed.

They traded sub-20 prior to Covid. But as others pointed out AP increased MRSP significantly during the pandemic. I am confident that AP demand will tank even more.

Anyone know the last MRSP for the 15450 was when the 15550 was introduced? I'd probably go for an unworn example at that amount then... Don't like the 15550s due to their Vaucher movement and the missing logo on the dial.

European dealers seem to not have realized that no one is buying atm. Asking prices are still pretty high, though I doubt anything is selling.

[APWorldTour]

Originally Posted by sigma089

European dealers seem to not have realized that no one is buying atm. Asking prices are still pretty high, though I doubt anything is selling.

Any particular reason why you doubt anything is selling? And if things are not selling then why would they not align their prices with the rest of the world? Just wondering, thanks.

[sigma089]

Because no dealer is buying any high ticket items atm. I was thinking about selling my 5164a to fund a PC purchase and from three dealers I talked to about offloading it non was even willing to make an offer citing the very fact, that they are not selling anything atm. Full set original owner watch in like new condition.

[APWorldTour]

Originally Posted by sigma089

Because no dealer is buying any high ticket items atm. I was thinking about selling my 5164a to fund a PC purchase and from three dealers I talked to about offloading it non was even willing to make an offer citing the very fact, that they are not selling anything atm. Full set original owner watch in like new condition.

Yes in my experience with some European dealers they will pay up to 50k for inventory, and anything above that is consignement only.