Talking Stocks 2.0

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-...S%3D1596454364

Stay disciplined and buy the dip.

We all know there could be signs of weakness throughout the summer, but that does not mean rush out and sell all positions waiting for a crash that most likely will not come at this point (obviously in my opinion).

I've been a bull and remain so - staying tech heavy for the time being, as discussed.

I agree with a caveat, I believe this dip could take weeks to months to play out.

I would like to see a 10-15% overall decline before I can get bullish again. until then I am content to hold, look for value trades and take profits where necessary to preserve capital.

I intend to buy more AAPL when either the price declines below my last sale or after the split and the sellers bail out.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I agree with a caveat, I believe this dip could take weeks to months to play out.

I would like to see a 10-15% overall decline before I can get bullish again. until then I am content to hold, look for value trades and take profits where necessary to preserve capital.

I intend to buy more AAPL when either the price declines below my last sale or after the split and the sellers bail out.

Don't disagree with you there.

What I don't anticipate seeing is anything near the March lows or reasons to panic sell. Taking a profit is one thing and being somewhat defensive is one thing; completely selling out (or close to it) while waiting for the next crash is another.

[beshannon]

CLX beat top and bottom lines, I am holding this trade for the moment

MPC sold their Speedway gasoline station operations to 7-11 for 21 billion. Loss for the quarter was smaller then expected. I am holding this trade for the moment

[supernova]

Good move for tech at the open, MSFT finally popping.

Sold out of FSLY though on high on Friday Got anxious as their earnings will need to be absolutely mind blowing to justify the current sky high valuation.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by supernova

Good move for tech at the open, MSFT finally popping.

Sold out of FSLY though on high on Friday Got anxious as their earnings will need to be absolutely mind blowing to justify the current sky high valuation.

I'm not taking profits on FSLY, SE or LVGO anytime soon.

I'm a broken record, but these stocks are built for the here and now, as well as the future. There's a reason I keep piping up about them. Last week's big tech earnings just proves why.

Add PINS to that list.

[supernova]

My big tech holding are staying put for now. Just FSLY I feel is way too high for current valuations, feel another 20%+ drop coming soon as it's super volatile. Might re-enter if it goes sub $80 but need to see how their earnings go. I'm happy with the run I had with them over past few months.

[logo]

Originally Posted by supernova

My big tech holding are staying put for now. Just FSLY I feel is way too high for current valuations, feel another 20%+ drop coming soon as it's super volatile. Might re-enter if it goes sub $80 but need to see how their earnings go. I'm happy with the run I had with them over past few months.

Have to agree with you on FSLY. I've been a proponent of NET over FSLY for a long time... it's had no where near the hype as FSLY but in my view even larger potential upside:

- CDN, like FSLY (and with several big clients like SHOP, NKE, US government etc)

- Added benefit of being a cloud security company (which if you have ever used cloud computing, you know is of major importance)

- Better product pricing for small businesses = higher customer count and revenue

- MUCH larger server network that is worldwide, with recent partnerships with JD.com to expand in the Asian market

- Recent announcement of Workers Unbound - this takes direct aim at Amazon AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud, which is huge.


All said and done, NET is my long-term horse and I think it's priced well currently. Looking for an earnings pop this week.

[ndls]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

I'm not taking profits on FSLY, SE or LVGO anytime soon.

I'm a broken record, but these stocks are built for the here and now, as well as the future. There's a reason I keep piping up about them. Last week's big tech earnings just proves why.

Add PINS to that list.

I’m sad I didn’t enter FSLY in the high 70’s. It’s okay. Regardless of the direction post-earnings, I’ll likely enter near future.

LVGO is awesome. It just accelerated it’s way into the inevitable.

#bullish

[AshCashEmAll]

Originally Posted by supernova

My big tech holding are staying put for now. Just FSLY I feel is way too high for current valuations, feel another 20%+ drop coming soon as it's super volatile. Might re-enter if it goes sub $80 but need to see how their earnings go. I'm happy with the run I had with them over past few months.

Earnings isn’t until the 5th so you might see another rally of 10-20% before that sell off


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[beshannon]

Added to CLX on a sell off after great earnings and an upbeat full year guidance. With nearly 10% short interest I am happy to add to this trade.

[RyanO]

Reopened my Marriott position this morning, looks like my order executed at the low of the day which always feels good.

[HTXlex]

Jpeezy14 what’s your strategy for options? Are you buying weeklies, monthly, or leaps?

[JParm]

Originally Posted by HTXlex

Jpeezy14 what’s your strategy for options? Are you buying weeklies, monthly, or leaps?

A couple monthly, couple leaps. I want enough time that if earnings miss, there's still time to make up for it on the back end.

I also only buy calls, and only on deep red days, preferably after a few in a row. Never chase in options; learned the hard way.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by AshCashEmAll

Anyone gonna buy some more Microsoft with the rumors that they are in talks to buy TikTok ?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Nah, I think they have other issues and wouldn't touch it. Largely, Xbox Series X related and development costs. They may sell a lot of hardware this Fall as people are stuck at home longer, but doubt they will see the software sales they are expecting and used to. Historically, consoles take a big loss on launch for several years as the manufacture hopes to make up R&D with their gravy train aka software licensing fees. Now in this case, I just can't see those software purchases being near historic levels. If they up the software title costs, they're dead on arrival.

Yelp estimates 60% of their listed restaurants have closed permanently this year. That's a lot of disposable income gone missing. I'd be shocked if the restaurant and bar employees, aren't significant contributors/portion of game purchasers. Think the entire 16 to 29 crowd and many working second jobs in the service industry, or at least were.

As far as TickTok goes, I think we're about to see a mass exodus from social media. As unbelievable as that sounds, I'm a contrarian at heart bc of the basics of supply/demand and emotional influences. Too much censorship, too much manipulating, and too little transparency. All the death nail for social media imo.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by logo

Have to agree with you on FSLY. I've been a proponent of NET over FSLY for a long time... it's had no where near the hype as FSLY but in my view even larger potential upside:

- CDN, like FSLY (and with several big clients like SHOP, NKE, US government etc)

- Added benefit of being a cloud security company (which if you have ever used cloud computing, you know is of major importance)

- Better product pricing for small businesses = higher customer count and revenue

- MUCH larger server network that is worldwide, with recent partnerships with JD.com to expand in the Asian market

- Recent announcement of Workers Unbound - this takes direct aim at Amazon AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud, which is huge.


All said and done, NET is my long-term horse and I think it's priced well currently. Looking for an earnings pop this week.

I think you've talked about FSLY running away for awhile now. What you call hype corresponds to gains made by investors. FSLY's Q1 earnings blew it out of the water, and FSLY's clients have blown out Q2, so I expect the same from FSLY.

https://www.digitaltrends.com/news/c...s-down-outage/

The NET outage a couple weeks back was not a good look for their business. Cloud is a large space but like any sector, there will be winners and losers. NET might still amount to something great, but hiccups like the one I mentioned during a time when internet usage is at an all-time high (and a necessity at this point) opens the door to competitors like FSLY.

I hope NET does shoot for you but if it doesn't, don't be afraid to jump ship. Knowing when to cut the cord is just as important as beginning an investment in a company.

[logo]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

I think you've talked about FSLY running away for awhile now. What you call hype corresponds to gains made by RHers (investors). FSLY's Q1 earnings blew it out of the water, and FSLY's clients have blown out Q2, so I expect the same from FSLY.

https://www.digitaltrends.com/news/c...s-down-outage/

The NET outage a couple weeks back was not a good look for their business. Cloud is a large space but like any sector, there will be winners and losers. NET might still amount to something great, but hiccups like the one I mentioned during a time when internet usage is at an all-time high (and a necessity at this point) opens the door to competitors like FSLY.

I hope NET does shoot for you but if it doesn't, don't be afraid to jump ship. Knowing when to cut the cord is just as important as beginning an investment in a company.

Fixed the above for you, but your post is a bit comical, uniformed and frankly misleading to anyone casually reading this. You’ve gone on a lot about FSLY, but you are intentionally or unintentionally leaving out some important details. Winners and losers? NET has more than doubled its stock price this year with better Q1 revenue/YoY performance than FSLY (90M vs 60M revenue, 48% vs 38% YoY Revenue growth). Not sure why I’d cut that cord? Just because FSLY gained more in stock price the past 3 months?? I don’t chase.

More importantly though, it’s easy for those less familiar with cloud computing to presume these companies are in direct competition, and just look at the stock change over the past 3 months and listen to Cramer harping on about how FSLY is the next big thing. They are not necessarily direct competitors, and I’ll touch on it here for anyone interested in understanding the difference between these companies. For reference, I’m an MD/PhD engineering and use cloud computing for part of my work.

Cloudflare is an overall Internet function and security company with a CDN as the added bonus. Fastly is primarily a CDN company. For example, a telemedicine company or clinic would not use FSLY - content delivery is not the goal, but rather secure, fast, remote connection to patient data. Many customers have BOTH who rely on content delivery to customers AND security with a broad cloud platform (eg. Shopify uses both). However, Fastly is basically unaffordable to small business. For example, FSLY had about 1800 customers as of Q1 with focus on big name customers, whereas NET gains several thousand customers per day which does still include big names (like US government, Nike, Shopify etc). The fact the entire web went down for a large portion of the US tells you just how important Cloudflare is, not a flag or gap for FSLY to fill because they can’t - it’s a different service. FSLY uses edge computing for time-sensitive data (as in, delivering content rapidly to end users, which is what a CDN does), while cloudflare is using it for CDN and web security but also general computing - it’s a general cloud platform where users can run large data processes like AI/ML securely, and have secure data access. Have a look at the size difference in number of data centers between NET and FSLY... that is why Cloudflares cloud computing platform Workers Unbound directly targets those behemoth companies like AMZN/MSFT/GOOGL for an entirely separate business area from CDNs/FSLY. I suppose Fastly could build up to that, but that sort of thing doesn’t happen over the course of a 30 minute outage... Not sure the outage did anything other than draw attention to how big NETs reach is, and their transparent PR and swift correction of the issue were great, especially to cloudflare customers.

Here’s the Q1 NET earnings transcript for anyone interested:
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-t...transcrip.aspx

Both companies have long term value in my opinion. However, in light of the available information on financials, valuation, product offerings and market space, my own opinion is such that if I were to choose 1 company to buy today and hold for several years it would be (and is) NET. I’m sure both companies will report very strong earnings this quarter, but don’t let the analysts or anyone else tell you that it’s one vs the other. There’s room for both.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by logo

Fixed the above for you, but your post is a bit comical, uniformed and frankly misleading to anyone casually reading this. You’ve gone on a lot about FSLY, but you are intentionally or unintentionally leaving out some important details. Winners and losers? NET has more than doubled its stock price this year with better Q1 revenue/YoY performance than FSLY (90M vs 60M revenue, 48% vs 38% YoY Revenue growth). Not sure why I’d cut that cord? Just because FSLY gained more in stock price the past 3 months?? I don’t chase.

More importantly though, it’s easy for those less familiar with cloud computing to presume these companies are in direct competition, and just look at the stock change over the past 3 months and listen to Cramer harping on about how FSLY is the next big thing. They are not necessarily direct competitors, and I’ll touch on it here for anyone interested in understanding the difference between these companies. For reference, I’m an MD/PhD engineering and use cloud computing for part of my work.

Cloudflare is an overall Internet function and security company with a CDN as the added bonus. Fastly is primarily a CDN company. For example, a telemedicine company or clinic would not use FSLY - content delivery is not the goal, but rather secure, fast, remote connection to patient data. Many customers have BOTH who rely on content delivery to customers AND security with a broad cloud platform (eg. Shopify uses both). However, Fastly is basically unaffordable to small business. For example, FSLY had about 1800 customers as of Q1 with focus on big name customers, whereas NET gains several thousand customers per day which does still include big names (like US government, Nike, Shopify etc). The fact the entire web went down for a large portion of the US tells you just how important Cloudflare is, not a flag or gap for FSLY to fill because they can’t - it’s a different service. FSLY uses edge computing for time-sensitive data (as in, delivering content rapidly to end users, which is what a CDN does), while cloudflare is using it for CDN and web security but also general computing - it’s a general cloud platform where users can run large data processes like AI/ML securely, and have secure data access. Have a look at the size difference in number of data centers between NET and FSLY... that is why Cloudflares cloud computing platform Workers Unbound directly targets those behemoth companies like AMZN/MSFT/GOOGL for an entirely separate business area from CDNs/FSLY. I suppose Fastly could build up to that, but that sort of thing doesn’t happen over the course of a 30 minute outage... Not sure the outage did anything other than draw attention to how big NETs reach is, and their transparent PR and swift correction of the issue were great, especially to cloudflare customers.

Here’s the Q1 NET earnings transcript for anyone interested:
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-t...transcrip.aspx

Both companies have long term value in my opinion. However, in light of the available information on financials, valuation, product offerings and market space, my own opinion is such that if I were to choose 1 company to buy today and hold for several years it would be (and is) NET. I’m sure both companies will report very strong earnings this quarter, but don’t let the analysts or anyone else tell you that it’s one vs the other. There’s room for both.

Definitely not trying to start an argument, and I do think there is indeed room for both. I also appreciate your analysis here.

My comment was merely about how many times you've come back to talk about FSLY and its run-up, and how you feel NET is better as a stock.

As far as numbers go, I have yet to see it from NET - but that's not to say it won't happen in the future. You are correct, however - people should not take my or your word alone in investing; due diligence is key.

I've ridden FSLY before it hit RH / Cramer crowd, and you have NET. Both can be successful together, but again my initial response was more about how much you've talked about FSLY and are always bringing up NET along with it.

I do value your insight, and appreciate the conversations had here.

[logo]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Definitely not trying to start an argument, and I do think there is indeed room for both. I also appreciate your analysis here.

My comment was merely about how many times you've come back to talk about FSLY and its run-up, and how you feel NET is better as a stock.

As far as numbers go, I have yet to see it from NET - but that's not to say it won't happen in the future. You are correct, however - people should not take my or your word alone in investing; due diligence is key.

I've ridden FSLY before it hit RH / Cramer crowd, and you have NET. Both can be successful together, but again my initial response was more about how much you've talked about FSLY and are always bringing up NET along with it.

No offense given, none taken. Yes, I bring up NET just to inform others of another opportunity in the cloud sphere, just as you like to mention FSLY, LVGO, SE etc. Due diligence required by all, but I’m just trying to add an underrepresented name to the hat, along with my rationale as to why at this particular moment I feel it’s a good value compared to where FSLY is at given their similar (but not identical) services.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by logo

No offense given, none taken. Yes, I bring up NET just to inform others of another opportunity in the cloud sphere, just as you like to mention FSLY, LVGO, SE etc. Due diligence required by all, but I’m just trying to add an underrepresented name to the hat, along with my rationale as to why at this particular moment I feel it’s a good value compared to where FSLY is at given their similar (but not identical) services.

I can appreciate that.

Definitely the thread to bring in the underrepresented stocks and like I said before, I probably go on too much about my favorites around here!

It's all about bringing the stocks that most people don't hear about to the forefront, so that we can all prosper.

[AshCashEmAll]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

I can appreciate that.

Definitely the thread to bring in the underrepresented stocks and like I said before, I probably go on too much about my favorites around here!

It's all about bringing the stocks that most people don't hear about to the forefront, so that we can all prosper.

Your favorites make me money so let me know when you have another favorite to add :)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[JParm]

Originally Posted by AshCashEmAll

Your favorites make me money so let me know when you have another favorite to add :)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Haha, we're all in it together!

https://www.barrons.com/articles/tec...?mod=hp_LATEST

Somewhat interesting article here. I'm a big proponent of tech - but that obviously does not mean chase names just because they're in tech. The RH crowd seems to think otherwise.

Business principles and the bottom line still matter here, including balance sheets. Know what you're investing in and don't chase the next hot thing (including all the electric car companies that seem to be popping up nearly every minute).

[beshannon]

Looking at some new names this morning: AMD, RTX, V

I have traded all of these in the past, do not own any of them now. Looking to add on dips as trades

[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Looking at some new names this morning: AMD, RTX, V

I have traded all of these in the past, do not own any of them now. Looking to add on dips as trades

Have owned RTX and V as well and I do like the companies.

I am still taking a hard look at RTX, though probably will not add to it until closer to a vaccine (similar to airlines / BA). I'm ok missing a bottom here (or close to it) in RTX to keep the funds elsewhere for now.

[sgwatchguy]

https://www.barrons.com/articles/bir...es-51596537900

Interesting, and members here can relate, seeking investment returns on Hermès bags.

[supernova]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Looking at some new names this morning: AMD, RTX, V

I have traded all of these in the past, do not own any of them now. Looking to add on dips as trades

I think AMD is already priced in for the med term so can't see much more movement there any time soon unless Intel crashes more.

V I like now at these prices, especially sub 190. If there is weakness there today, I will look to add.

EDIT: Just as I wrote that, I see Jeffries has upgraded AMD to $95 PT, so what do I know! :P

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by supernova

I think AMD is already priced in for the med term so can't see much more movement there any time soon unless Intel crashes more.

V I like now at these prices, especially sub 190. If there is weakness there today, I will look to add.

AMD just had their price target lifted and the market share grab by AMD will lead to higher earnings. INTC is playing catchup (not very well) at this point

[Wcdhtwn]

Anyone here follow Twilio, TWLO? It's been a rocket and earnings after the bell today. It surprised with a profit last quarter so expectations are pretty high. I've owned it since the low 30's, held through some rocky times, but keep thinking I should sell, take the gains, and rebuy after a meaningful dip. Very interested to hear others thoughts on the stock, not if I should sell, just opinions on the company/stock itself.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Wcdhtwn

Anyone here follow Twilio, TWLO? It's been a rocket and earnings after the bell today. It surprised with a profit last quarter so expectations are pretty high. I've owned it since the low 30's, held through some rocky times, but keep thinking I should sell, take the gains, and rebuy after a meaningful dip. Very interested to hear others thoughts on the stock, not if I should sell, just opinions on the company/stock itself.

I do not own TWLO and it has blown past raised price targets. I would protect my gains and take out my cost but that is me.

[Wcdhtwn]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I do not own TWLO and it has blown past raised price targets. I would protect my gains and take out my cost but that is me.

I keep selling covered calls thinking I'll pocket a few $ and sell at a higher price if exercised against me. It's 284 right now, so I'd sell the 290 calls, pocket the cash and if it closes above $290 I sell at that price to the buyer of the contract. But it keeps going up and up and I bail on the options because it makes more sense to be in the stock. Last time I did this was a two weeks ago and sold the 265 calls, expiring last Friday. I bought them back before they were exercised as the stock flew past 265 to mid 270's. I still made a little $ on the options.

Bulls, bears, and pigs... I'm just never good at recognizing when I turn from bull to pig...

[logo]

Originally Posted by beshannon

AMD just had their price target lifted and the market share grab by AMD will lead to higher earnings. INTC is playing catchup (not very well) at this point

From a purely product point of view, I prefer NVDA based on their GPU pipeline - those are money makers. Just in the process of ordering a new one myself and they are not cheap. I've been meaning to add NVDA to the portfolio for a while, but have deferred in favor of allocating money towards other things the past few weeks.