Talking Stocks 2.0

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by brandrea

It sure will be interesting to bump this thread a year from now to see where markets are.

Since 1980, there have been 32 market corrections and 90% of the time, the market has ended the year higher

And I agree

It is the pain of watching it play out rather than analyzing the history

[037]

Originally Posted by brandrea

There’s always hope my friend

Look I’m not saying the market will end higher this year, (even tho history says it should), but I do believe in time it comes back and goes on to new highs just as it always has.

Agreed. Plus we're still higher than a few years ago. It's not the end of the world.

Well, not yet anyway.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by beshannon

And I agree

It is the pain of watching it play out rather than analyzing the history

I agree, the last week has been tough to watch my friend. I know first hand

[rolexpatek363]

Take a longer view than the short-term debt cycle.

[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by 037

So you're saying there's a chance?

[037]

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by 037

Agreed. Plus we're still higher than a few years ago. It's not the end of the world.

Well, not yet anyway.

Not yet

There was no reason for that move up yesterday, we have not gotten the indicators that we have bottomed yet.

Futures down 700, Oil prices fell along with Treasury yields. U.S. crude fell more than 2% to $33.51 per barrel. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year note yield traded at 0.7%.

[austinp]

It seems like a coin flip would be more accurate at predicting if the market will be up or down these days.

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[beshannon]

Originally Posted by austinp

It seems like a coin flip would be more accurate at predicting if the market will be up or down these days.

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Pretty much, the algos are being whipsawed by the news and almost everything is disconnected from the fundamentals.

That means that if your conviction is that this will eventually get better then take a step back, keep your plan and stop looking.

On the other hand if your conviction is that this will get much worse then you need to look at your plan and act accordingly.

Panic is not a strategy but no strategy is not a plan.

[Peter11]

The market is trying hard to not touch the bear market line. But I think it will soon.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Peter11

The market is trying hard to not touch the bear market line. But I think it will soon.

Agreed

[037]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Not yet

There was no reason for that move up yesterday, we have not gotten the indicators that we have bottomed yet.

Futures down 700, Oil prices fell along with Treasury yields. U.S. crude fell more than 2% to $33.51 per barrel. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year note yield traded at 0.7%.

I'm talking three years ago. The market was around 18k and we're at 24k today. 18 < 24.

(Unless I misunderstood your use of "not yet")

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by 037

I'm talking three years ago. The market was around 18k and we're at 24k today. 18 < 24.

(Unless I misunderstood your use of "not yet")

18K on the Dow might be generous

The bigger picture

As detailed above, the major U.S. benchmarks have broken down technically. Consider the scale of each benchmark’s plunge from its recent record close to Monday’s close:

The Dow industrials have plunged 5,700 points, or 19.3%, from the record close (29,551), established Feb. 12.

The Nasdaq Composite has plunged 1,867 points, or 19.0%, from its record close (9,817), established Feb. 19.

The S&P 500 has plunged 640 points, or 18.9%, from its record close (3,386), established Feb. 19.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ch...03-10-12103438

[037]

Originally Posted by beshannon

18K on the Dow might be generous

You're right. It was about 3.5-4 years ago. Time flies.

[beshannon]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/cram...2018-lows.html

If the Dow returned to its 2018 Christmas Eve low, it would represent a 26% decline from its all-time highs in February and firmly put the 30-stock index into bear market territory.

[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by beshannon

18K on the Dow might be generous
...

It's definitely possible. I'm not sure if it will really break down that badly, but we are definitely going to go into a bear market sooner rather than later, and we will be in a full-fledged recession by the summer.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Doc Savage

It's definitely possible. I'm not sure if it will really break down that badly, but we are definitely going to go into a bear market sooner rather than later, and we will be in a full-fledged recession by the summer.

Agreed, it will be the earnings that determine how far we fall, the repricing of equities against the bond market and lower p/e ratios wont be enough to save things

[m j b]

One of the things that concerns me is that we went into this with elevated P/Es, so a return to "normal" could be a big hit, on top of everything else.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by m j b

One of the things that concerns me is that we went into this with elevated P/Es, so a return to "normal" could be a big hit, on top of everything else.

Correct and there is a real quandary at this point. Analysts are waiting for guidance cuts and companies are pulling guidance. So no one is sure how to price in the effect COVID-19.

My gut tells me that 12 months from now the S&P will be undervalued.

[beshannon]

Maybe the panic sell we need to start to bottom, VIX still only at +52 not nearly high enough though

Dow drops 1,100 in wild trading as WHO declares coronavirus a global pandemic

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/10/dow-...ays-surge.html

[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by ronricks

Why should we give people who aren't working $1500? The advantage of excluding payroll taxes is a reward for working people. Lets not forget we have 40% of Americans that pay no federal income taxes at all. Regardless if someone is at home sick from the virus who is a salaried employee they would still benefit. Hourly workers there would be some nuance there as to the specifics and likely would depend on the company they work for.

Pretty heartless toward the poor.

[ronricks]

Originally Posted by Doc Savage

Pretty heartless toward the poor.

This makes zero sense in terms of what has been proposed as far as a payroll tax deduction. How is that heartless towards the poor? The poor in this country have it pretty good compared to others in this world. Those are the folks we should feel bad about. Not people who are already benefiting from federal income taxes paid from working people.

[GB-man]

Neither here nor there because a payroll tax break is little more than a fart in a windstorm at this point. The equivalent of running out of bullets and having to physically throw the weapon at the attacker.

[austinp]

Did a little buying today.

Question for y'all. If I use stock profits to pay for my kids college, do I still pay capitol gains tax?

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[SMD]

Originally Posted by austinp

Did a little buying today.

Question for y'all. If I use stock profits to pay for my kids college, do I still pay capitol gains tax?

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Uh, yeah.

[lmcgbaj]

I think the game just changed today.

We are entering another territory. New low levels on the horizon.

Unfortunately, I got in on the initial dip hoping for a quick bounce. Now I need to keep playing all the way down. Doesn't look like a bottom anytime soon. It's gonna get bumpy.

[JasoninDenver]

Originally Posted by SMD

Uh, yeah.

Why not do a 529 plan and buy investments through that account, if available in your state?

[SMD]

Originally Posted by JasoninDenver

Why not do a 529 plan and buy investments through that account, if available in your state?

Not the question asked, but also you cannot actively trade a 529. 529 plans offer a selection of investments. And you can only change investments twice a year.

[austinp]

Originally Posted by SMD

Uh, yeah.

Thanks. No need for the sarcasm though.

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[EEpro]

Originally Posted by austinp

Thanks. No need for the sarcasm though.

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You can put $14K per year per student into 529 but also you can superfund it with multiple years of that in one $75,000 injection so you can buy low.