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JParm · 7 August 2020, 12:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by beshannon

Fastly sidelined at Oppenheimer on TikTok risk

https://seekingalpha.com/news/360206...on-tiktok-risk

I have no opinion on the stock however it seems to me to be a case of the bad news gets worse and could present a buying opportunity if the stock really gets thrown out.

Of note - Oppenheimer still calls FSLY best in class here.

As I mentioned, leadership mentioned that if TikTok were to go away, they could replace the 12% revenue with other customers fairly quickly. Take that for what it's worth.

I'm long and have bought on the dip, but also took profit yesterday.

logo · 7 August 2020, 01:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Of note - Oppenheimer still calls FSLY best in class here.

As I mentioned, leadership mentioned that if TikTok were to go away, they could replace the 12% revenue with other customers fairly quickly. Take that for what it's worth.

I'm long and have bought on the dip, but also took profit yesterday.

I guess my worry in hearing the CEOs comment was that while I don’t doubt they can make up that 12% in revenue, I do wonder how quickly it could be filled. For instance, enterprise customer count increased 2% in Q2 compared to Q1. About 1/6 of their customers are enterprise customers, so there’s definitely a reliance on securing big deals, which don’t happen every day. Again, this only impacts the short term target, long term there’s not much to worry about.

JParm · 7 August 2020, 01:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by logo

I guess my worry in hearing the CEOs comment was that while I don’t doubt they can make up that 12% in revenue, I do wonder how quickly it could be filled. For instance, enterprise customer count increased 2% in Q2 compared to Q1. About 1/6 of their customers are enterprise customers, so there’s definitely a reliance on securing big deals, which don’t happen every day. Again, this only impacts the short term target, long term there’s not much to worry about.

Agree that short-term could cause a bit of pain, but as you said, long-term should be fine.

I do think leadership is strong here and I actually applaud them for bringing up the TikTok issue - there's not just a pump during earnings, unlike other companies that we've seen ( e.g. Nikola).

bryan13 · 7 August 2020, 02:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Agree that short-term could cause a bit of pain, but as you said, long-term should be fine.

I do think leadership is strong here and I actually applaud them for bringing up the TikTok issue - there's not just a pump during earnings, unlike other companies that we've seen ( e.g. Nikola).

What price are you looking to re-enter at? I think we will see some downward action today and tomorrow but by mid next week it will be back above 100.

JParm · 7 August 2020, 02:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bryan13

What price are you looking to re-enter at? I think we will see some downward action today and tomorrow but by mid next week it will be back above 100.

There's a strong base forming at the 87 level. You could monitor through the end of the week, but I've added here.

logo · 7 August 2020, 02:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bryan13

What price are you looking to re-enter at? I think we will see some downward action today and tomorrow but by mid next week it will be back above 100.

I’m looking at them with an assumed P/S ratio of 35. Important to consider YoY revenue growth is huge for these types of companies. Based on their current earnings of about ~300M annually, and removing 12% of that (assuming worst case from TikTok), that pegs their market cap around 9B. So in the 80s I think is actually not bad.... again, assuming a P/S of 35, which I think is ok at their current stage. That said, I think they could potentially dip a bit further as things settle out but who knows.

For what it’s worth, assuming similar revenue growth for NET (which has been the case in the past, but could outperform or underperform in the future), that pegs their market cap around 14B with a P/S of 35. That’s a share price up >12% from where they are trading today...

PS NET earnings are today after the bell.

logo · 7 August 2020, 02:53 AM

I’ll also mention BTG again. There looks to be a rotation out of gold today causing a minor pull back, but I think this is a great opportunity for anyone looking for a gold play.

They reported record revenue, cash flow and gold production yesterday with minimal debt, a great cash position and doubled their dividend all while maintaining full or optimistic guidance for the year. Seems like a literal gold mine to me.

Uggi · 7 August 2020, 03:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by logo

I’m looking at them with an assumed P/S ratio of 35. Important to consider YoY revenue growth is huge for these types of companies. Based on their current earnings of about ~300M annually, and removing 12% of that (assuming worst case from TikTok), that pegs their market cap around 9B. So in the 80s I think is actually not bad.... again, assuming a P/S of 35, which I think is ok at their current stage. That said, I think they could potentially dip a bit further as things settle out but who knows.

For what it’s worth, assuming similar revenue growth for NET (which has been the case in the past, but could outperform or underperform in the future), that pegs their market cap around 14B with a P/S of 35. That’s a share price up >12% from where they are trading today...

PS NET earnings are today after the bell.

I put into NET a while back after being prodded to research them a while back by you Logo (so thanks). I'm currently 24% up on NET and holding. I'm in FSLY too - got into that at 68 and should have trimmed last week but held on. Grrr. I'd buy more FSLY at 75.. Both good stocks and interesting companies I've enjoyed researching. Must tip a hat to Jpeezy for prompting me to research FSLY.
My one contribution in terms of tips was Aston Martin a while back - not sure if anyone looked at that but I'm up 31% on that and it's still got a lot of legs left of you can be patient for the new CEO to roll out his strategy.
Great thread this. I log in about 15 times a day!

JParm · 7 August 2020, 05:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Uggi

I put into NET a while back after being prodded to research them a while back by you Logo (so thanks). I'm currently 24% up on NET and holding. I'm in FSLY too - got into that at 68 and should have trimmed last week but held on. Grrr. I'd buy more FSLY at 75.. Both good stocks and interesting companies I've enjoyed researching. Must tip a hat to Jpeezy for prompting me to research FSLY.
My one contribution in terms of tips was Aston Martin a while back - not sure if anyone looked at that but I'm up 31% on that and it's still got a lot of legs left of you can be patient for the new CEO to roll out his strategy.
Great thread this. I log in about 15 times a day!

Definitely one of the better threads around

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/...ted-today.aspx

Have been looking at APPS as another growth vehicle. Knockout earnings on a platform that makes sense, with good price targets post-earnings (albeit not that many). Raised guidance as well.

My hesitation is the monster run-up, but I will be looking to add on a large pullback.

JParm · 7 August 2020, 06:38 AM

Cloud stocks not doing so well during earnings even after posting beats. DDOG down heavy at nearly 20% today, with NET down over 5%.

I added to DDOG, as it was something that I have owned in the past and do like business. To see it go from $90 back down to $75 was enough for me to buy-in.

Another example of a big run up that is crashing down due to lofty expectations - but that's not saying it can't get back to those levels soon. Again, earnings beat here and an announced acquisition of a complementary company to further their business as well.

RyanO · 7 August 2020, 06:54 AM

For anyone interested, here's an article outlining why Emergent Biosolutions is undervalued. Dropped a bit for a better entry, and I added a bit to my potition.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/436...ks-undervalued

RyanO · 7 August 2020, 07:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Cloud stocks not doing so well during earnings even after posting beats. DDOG down heavy at nearly 20% today, with NET down over 5%.

I added to DDOG, as it was something that I have owned in the past and do like business. To see it go from $90 back down to $75 was enough for me to buy-in.

Another example of a big run up that is crashing down due to lofty expectations - but that's not saying it can't get back to those levels soon. Again, earnings beat here and an announced acquisition of a complementary company to further their business as well.

They really aren't reacting well, are they, despite great earnings and guidance.

JParm · 7 August 2020, 07:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RyanO

They really aren't reacting well, are they, despite great earnings and guidance.

Yes, I think this just shows that the cloud stocks definitely ran too hot.

Was able to get in under $76 and it looks to be hovering above that while the call is going on; looking like the bottom is in.

And add AYX to the list of SaaS stocks getting hammered - now down over 20% as well.

logo · 7 August 2020, 07:44 AM

After a wild ride initially, NET is up after hours. Incredible earnings call with the CEO and raised guidance - look out Amazon AWS! NET is coming.

JParm · 7 August 2020, 09:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Cloud stocks not doing so well during earnings even after posting beats. DDOG down heavy at nearly 20% today, with NET down over 5%.

I added to DDOG, as it was something that I have owned in the past and do like business. To see it go from $90 back down to $75 was enough for me to buy-in.

Another example of a big run up that is crashing down due to lofty expectations - but that's not saying it can't get back to those levels soon. Again, earnings beat here and an announced acquisition of a complementary company to further their business as well.

Since buying into DDOG on the selloff post-earnings a couple hours ago (as mentioned, got in at $76), I'm up 10% in the stock.

These massive overreactions to earnings (which are actually beats) can be prime buying opportunities, as that is when the most downward pressure usually lies.

Tomorrow is another day and we'll see if I made the right decision, but just some food for thought as we continue through earnings with Q2 and into Q3.

gnuyork · 7 August 2020, 11:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by logo

After a wild ride initially, NET is up after hours. Incredible earnings call with the CEO and raised guidance - look out Amazon AWS! NET is coming.

We must being seeing different charts for today from each other.

scarlet knight · 7 August 2020, 11:21 AM

I am steering clear of the cloud stocks for a bit. Too wild for me.

logo · 7 August 2020, 11:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gnuyork

We must being seeing different charts for today from each other.

After hours dropped ~12% at one point, climbed up to +3% at the time of my post before closing out +0.15%.

gnuyork · 7 August 2020, 11:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by logo

After hours dropped ~12% at one point, climbed up to +3% at the time of my post before closing out +0.15%.

Odd, I'm seeing it as down 2.88%

beshannon · 7 August 2020, 10:34 PM

https://seekingalpha.com/news/360283...over-consensus

July jobs numbers better than expected, futures move higher, and then they promptly turn around

RyanO · 7 August 2020, 11:57 PM

Added to Fastly at 82.90. Really taking it in the nose. From almost $120 to nearly 80 on a beat and raised guidance. I think the Tik Tok fears are a bit overblown, and the 12% figure is really only 6% that is at risk - and the stock seems to be pricing in that revenue being lost - but it has not.

beshannon · 8 August 2020, 12:09 AM

UPS continuing to move higher

https://seekingalpha.com/news/360289...e-holiday-rush

Indicator of strong stay at home business traffic and retailers with online business are up as well. I am holding long into the holiday season and my dividend yield on cost is 4.2%

Price target just raised to 153, stock is overbought

-dustin · 8 August 2020, 12:46 AM

Well my toe-dipping into RKT seems to be going well.

scarlet knight · 8 August 2020, 01:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by beshannon

UPS continuing to move higher

https://seekingalpha.com/news/360289...e-holiday-rush

Indicator of strong stay at home business traffic and retailers with online business are up as well. I am holding long into the holiday season and my dividend yield on cost is 4.2%

Price target just raised to 153, stock is overbought

Lots of deliveries. An ingrained way to buy things now.

blown5.0 · 8 August 2020, 01:47 AM

Guys,
I had a quick question about losses. I have a couple of dead stocks. Lost 99% of their value (put very little in to begin with). If I sell, I have to pay a 6.95 commission which is worth more than the value of my position for each of these. Would you just sell it to clear your portfolio up a bit or keep it? My fear is that some random annual fee will hit the stock like they do sometimes. Sorry for the question but thanks. Also is the commission tax deductible?

aes7.5x55 · 8 August 2020, 01:48 AM

As someone who's been in the stock market for all of 1 whole month, I find this conversation very interesting. I don't understand 95% of it yet, but interesting nonetheless!

scarlet knight · 8 August 2020, 02:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blown5.0

Guys,
I had a quick question about losses. I have a couple of dead stocks. Lost 99% of their value (put very little in to begin with). If I sell, I have to pay a 6.95 commission which is worth more than the value of my position for each of these. Would you just sell it to clear your portfolio up a bit or keep it? My fear is that some random annual fee will hit the stock like they do sometimes. Sorry for the question but thanks. Also is the commission tax deductible?

I don’t think that the commission is tax deductible, but a capital loss usually is. What kind of stocks are you investing in that sustained a 99% loss? Sounds like penny stocks. Please reconsider if you have been buying those kind of stocks. Also note that most of the biggest brokerages no longer charge commissions to buy and sell stocks.

bryan13 · 8 August 2020, 02:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blown5.0

Guys,
I had a quick question about losses. I have a couple of dead stocks. Lost 99% of their value (put very little in to begin with). If I sell, I have to pay a 6.95 commission which is worth more than the value of my position for each of these. Would you just sell it to clear your portfolio up a bit or keep it? My fear is that some random annual fee will hit the stock like they do sometimes. Sorry for the question but thanks. Also is the commission tax deductible?

Where is your account that you're still paying a $7 commission? If you're trading frequently that adds up, and most of the top brokers in the US have $0 commissions now (TD, Schwab, Fidelity, etc)

blown5.0 · 8 August 2020, 02:09 AM

Thanks guys. There were some penny stocks from years ago my wife bought (less than 100 dollars in each). Not surprised they were worthless. We use Etrade.

RyanO · 8 August 2020, 02:18 AM

I use ETrade and do not pay commissions, you should contact them regarding updating your fee schedule if you're being charged.

7 August 2020, 10:34 PM	#3950
beshannon "TRF" Member Join Date: Jun 2009 Real Name: Brian Location: Northern Virginia Watch: One of Not Many Posts: 17,892	https://seekingalpha.com/news/360283...over-consensus July jobs numbers better than expected, futures move higher, and then they promptly turn around __________________ IWC Portugieser 7 Day, Omega Seamaster SMP300m, Vacheron Constantin Traditionnelle Complete Calendar, Glashutte PanoInverse, Glashutte SeaQ Panorama Date, Omega Aqua Terra 150, Omega CK 859, Omega Speedmaster 3861 Moonwatch, Breitling Superocean Steelfish, JLC Atmos Transparent Clock

8 August 2020, 12:09 AM	#3952
beshannon "TRF" Member Join Date: Jun 2009 Real Name: Brian Location: Northern Virginia Watch: One of Not Many Posts: 17,892	UPS continuing to move higher https://seekingalpha.com/news/360289...e-holiday-rush Indicator of strong stay at home business traffic and retailers with online business are up as well. I am holding long into the holiday season and my dividend yield on cost is 4.2% Price target just raised to 153, stock is overbought __________________ IWC Portugieser 7 Day, Omega Seamaster SMP300m, Vacheron Constantin Traditionnelle Complete Calendar, Glashutte PanoInverse, Glashutte SeaQ Panorama Date, Omega Aqua Terra 150, Omega CK 859, Omega Speedmaster 3861 Moonwatch, Breitling Superocean Steelfish, JLC Atmos Transparent Clock

8 August 2020, 01:48 AM	#3956
aes7.5x55 "TRF" Member Join Date: Jul 2015 Real Name: Adam Location: Ohio Watch: ing the river flow Posts: 359	As someone who's been in the stock market for all of 1 whole month, I find this conversation very interesting. I don't understand 95% of it yet, but interesting nonetheless! __________________ Why is it always 10:10:31?

7 August 2020, 02:53 AM	#3937
logo "TRF" Member Join Date: Jan 2019 Location: North America Posts: 2,368	I’ll also mention BTG again. There looks to be a rotation out of gold today causing a minor pull back, but I think this is a great opportunity for anyone looking for a gold play. They reported record revenue, cash flow and gold production yesterday with minimal debt, a great cash position and doubled their dividend all while maintaining full or optimistic guidance for the year. Seems like a literal gold mine to me.

7 August 2020, 06:54 AM	#3941
RyanO "TRF" Member Join Date: Feb 2013 Real Name: Ryan Location: DMV Watch: LVc Posts: 2,160	For anyone interested, here's an article outlining why Emergent Biosolutions is undervalued. Dropped a bit for a better entry, and I added a bit to my potition. https://seekingalpha.com/article/436...ks-undervalued

7 August 2020, 07:44 AM	#3944
logo "TRF" Member Join Date: Jan 2019 Location: North America Posts: 2,368	After a wild ride initially, NET is up after hours. Incredible earnings call with the CEO and raised guidance - look out Amazon AWS! NET is coming.

7 August 2020, 11:21 AM	#3947
scarlet knight "TRF" Member Join Date: Jul 2010 Location: USA Watch: Good ones Posts: 8,518	I am steering clear of the cloud stocks for a bit. Too wild for me.

7 August 2020, 11:57 PM	#3951
RyanO "TRF" Member Join Date: Feb 2013 Real Name: Ryan Location: DMV Watch: LVc Posts: 2,160	Added to Fastly at 82.90. Really taking it in the nose. From almost $120 to nearly 80 on a beat and raised guidance. I think the Tik Tok fears are a bit overblown, and the 12% figure is really only 6% that is at risk - and the stock seems to be pricing in that revenue being lost - but it has not.

8 August 2020, 12:46 AM	#3953
-dustin 2025 Pledge Member Join Date: Apr 2019 Real Name: Dustin Location: A, TX Posts: 1,711	Well my toe-dipping into RKT seems to be going well.

8 August 2020, 01:47 AM	#3955
blown5.0 "TRF" Member Join Date: Oct 2017 Location: Los Angeles Posts: 416	Guys, I had a quick question about losses. I have a couple of dead stocks. Lost 99% of their value (put very little in to begin with). If I sell, I have to pay a 6.95 commission which is worth more than the value of my position for each of these. Would you just sell it to clear your portfolio up a bit or keep it? My fear is that some random annual fee will hit the stock like they do sometimes. Sorry for the question but thanks. Also is the commission tax deductible?

8 August 2020, 02:09 AM	#3959
blown5.0 "TRF" Member Join Date: Oct 2017 Location: Los Angeles Posts: 416	Thanks guys. There were some penny stocks from years ago my wife bought (less than 100 dollars in each). Not surprised they were worthless. We use Etrade.

8 August 2020, 02:18 AM	#3960
RyanO "TRF" Member Join Date: Feb 2013 Real Name: Ryan Location: DMV Watch: LVc Posts: 2,160	I use ETrade and do not pay commissions, you should contact them regarding updating your fee schedule if you're being charged.

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