Talking Stocks 2.0

[austinp]

Big day today!


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[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by McGooberstein

I was looking to add HD or LOW at some point but it looks like that might never happen given their trajectory... Earnings for both are August 18 and 19, respectively, maybe there will be an opportunity to get in then but my assumption is that earnings will be pretty strong as more people spend time at home and work on home improvement projects.

Actually looking at the numbers more closely HD seems like its overbought whereas LOW is within reason of buying.

HD:
P/E: 27
Forward P/E: 24
PEG: 5.85 (mega yikes)

LOW:
P/E:~26
Forward P/E:~20.5
PEG: ~1.3

Any thoughts?

Have not sold any. It is now worth a lot of money. The quarterly dividend exceeds my initial investment. I am a big fan of HD stock. To go to their store is of no interest to me.

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Big turn around in tech at 2 pm, markets moving higher in thin volume, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, AMD, QCOM, NVDA all up nicely

Yessir. And I have 4 of those... if I didn't sell my microsoft recently then that would have been 5.

Also Tesla was up big today, but I sold/took profits when Apple made the announcement of the split and I used the cash to buy more Apple...Now Tesla's going to split. Oh well.

[Rwith22]

What’s everyone’s thoughts on the Tesla split? Glad I bought some in April!

[0xalate]

Originally Posted by Rwith22

What’s everyone’s thoughts on the Tesla split? Glad I bought some in April!

Mostly to get more Robinhood folks to buy it at a more accessible price, but then again not sure how valuable that is given that fractional shares are becoming a thing. It moved headlines though!

Equity prices have diverged from fundamentals so much, especially Tesla imo. I'd avoid it because of the downside risk.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Rwith22

What’s everyone’s thoughts on the Tesla split? Glad I bought some in April!

Splits create no value, they reprice shares and increase the number outstanding.

MMM reporting great sales in July

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/...ds-q3-comeback

CSCO with disappointing guidance down 6%

https://seekingalpha.com/news/360479...-earnings-beat

I am sticking with CSCO and will add this morning

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsl...?sref=Hny5JH2p

I like this chart

[beshannon]

I have been mildly cautious since July, although I cheer the rally.

Pragmatic instead of greedy I need to protect gains and capital as I near the next phase of my life.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/12/cram...ey-hurdle.html

I thought Tony Dwyer and his 3300 S&P call was wildly bullish, though now we could move to 3600.

This is technical analysis and although Carly Garner has a great track record I remain cautious. The two things keeping me invested is the fact that bearish sentiment is very high and cash is very high.

Everyone hates this rally and at the end of the day I tend to be a contrarian.

Stay sharp, these Summer days are rough, we wait jobless claims today.

[jaisonline]

Originally Posted by Rwith22

What’s everyone’s thoughts on the Tesla split? Glad I bought some in April!

As discussed nothing changes financially.

Thought is this split (like any) will help entice more regular investors. We know several brokerages allow fractional shares but much of the public seems to like whole shares. Also, some companies lower the price price through splits to get into news indices.

I do think we'll continue to see increased initial demand unless bad news hits. Then demand from folks who went “ga ga” just over the split will subside and we'll be back to following company news, earnings, products, etc...

Bottom line is if you believe in the company, ignore the split. Proceed as usual. Eventually, if Tesla announces a regular cash dividend, more shares for you to collect.

I currently own a small # of shares and will continue to watch with caution like any company. I like how Tesla is both a tech and auto company. Hoping Tesla can duplicate success like post-2010 popular splits (Netflix, Apple) and not many companies follow w/ more splits (especially in the tech sector). We'll see.

[beshannon]

Averaged down into CSCO at the open, I believe the long term story is still intact

[scarlet knight]

Anyone own SHOP or W? I have been in them, they appear overpriced, but keep going up.

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Everyone hates this rally.

We've been saying this since April and it's so true.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Anyone own SHOP or W? I have been in them, they appear overpriced, but keep going up.

I do not own either one.

Online shopping is going to grow. I do not know anything about W and no one can justify the valuation of SHOP. That does not mean they cannot go higher, these are not my kind of investments.

[vh2k]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Anyone own SHOP or W? I have been in them, they appear overpriced, but keep going up.

SHOP is gaining marketshare. I don't like W.

And both SHOP and W appear insanely overpriced. That being said, some thought AMZN was overpriced at $1,800 or TSLA at $500. You never know.

[77T]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I do not own either one.



Online shopping is going to grow. I do not know anything about W and no one can justify the valuation of SHOP. That does not mean they cannot go higher, these are not my kind of investments.

I agree that online shopping will grow. That would suggest the corrugated box companies should do the same.

Many will battle on the front line; no matter who wins, it ships in a box or original packaging (also a box).

IP?

Maybe others?

They are poised to succeed then.


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[beshannon]

Originally Posted by 77T

I agree that online shopping will grow. That would suggest the corrugated box companies should do the same.

Many will battle on the front line; no matter who wins, it ships in a box or original packaging (also a box).

IP?

Maybe others?

They are poised to succeed then.


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I agree with this and I am long IP. However, there never seems to be enough margin to give them pricing power.

[77T]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I agree with this and I am long IP. However, there never seems to be enough margin to give them pricing power.

Yes - the I in IP is their Achilles heel. China’s packaging clout in EMEA limits IP - sort of a glass ceiling.


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[beshannon]

Trying to scale into some new names for me

Added small positions in DXCM and TMO

These two have been performing through the entire year and show no signs of stopping, I would add and average down. I have a nephew that has nothing but great things to say about DXCM and TMO is on the forefront of hospital analytics.

[Harvie]

Why not play with the big boys, the full S&P at the CME?
always moving .......

[glenn_herwig]

Closed SQQQ yesterday and booked a tiny gain. Bought some TQQQ today. Chased it a little higher where I sold last week but I dont want to miss a run up. I still remain long my core position via SPY.

[trippinjimmy]

Originally Posted by glenn_herwig

Closed SQQQ yesterday and booked a tiny gain. Bought some TQQQ today. Chased it a little higher where I sold last week but I dont want to miss a run up. I still remain long my core position via SPY.

Different strokes for different folks, but the way you wrote that, it seems to imply you're holding these triple leveraged ETFs longer than a one day play. Super risky if that is the case IMO, be careful and best of luck!

[RyanO]

Some good insights from HSBC

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/12/hsbc...aboolainternal

[scarlet knight]

Anyone into risk on travel stocks? Hotels, airlines, travel? Seems risky now, but if a vaccine comes out, they will rocket. OTOH, they could go bankrupt.

[Rwith22]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Anyone into risk on travel stocks? Hotels, airlines, travel? Seems risky now, but if a vaccine comes out, they will rocket. OTOH, they could go bankrupt.

I grabbed some airline stocks during the dip in April, Might be a little while before they go back up but even if they go back to where they were trading before the dip there is Still a lot of profit to be made

[huncho]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Anyone into risk on travel stocks? Hotels, airlines, travel? Seems risky now, but if a vaccine comes out, they will rocket. OTOH, they could go bankrupt.

i have norwegian shares and june 2021 calls. its risky but they have the liquidity to survive for over a year. have a bit of delta airlines that i bought in march but staying away from airlines otherwise

[JWD531]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Anyone into risk on travel stocks? Hotels, airlines, travel? Seems risky now, but if a vaccine comes out, they will rocket. OTOH, they could go bankrupt.

I bought a lot in early April but sold all I had in May as they will recovery latest. Not looking to get back in until there’s news of recovery or confirmed vaccine.

They WILL skyrocket as soon as news changes, but there will still be an opportunity.

I am just gonna do one of each if I get into any. I like MAR, UAL, RCL. But I’m also open to LUV, NCLH or CCL, depending on who “takes off” first. I’m in an out of DIS as well. They’re in the same neighborhood IMO, even if not on the same street as airlines, etc.


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[-dustin]

Anyone else watch the IGC then NTN melee over the past couple days? I’ve only been into the stocks thing for a week and those 2 provided some good entertainment. I managed to get into IGC early and came away with some lunch money.

What fuels those sorts of rapid escalations and plunges? Besides people like me stumbling across them and looking to make a quick buck.

And no, not a Robinhood user.

[RyanO]

I have a position in Marriott, otherwise no travel stocks and no plans to initiate any new positions there. I think airlines will eventually come back, but smaller and leaner and that recovery will likely take longer than many anticipate.


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[JParm]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Anyone into risk on travel stocks? Hotels, airlines, travel? Seems risky now, but if a vaccine comes out, they will rocket. OTOH, they could go bankrupt.

As far as cyclicals go, I'm only in LEAPS, with expirations in January 2020.

Tech-heavy at the moment until things change.

Having been watching the market too closely while on vacation but should be back in the game here next Tuesday. Hope everyone is well!

[huncho]

Originally Posted by JWD531

I bought a lot in early April but sold all I had in May as they will recovery latest. Not looking to get back in until there’s news of recovery or confirmed vaccine.

They WILL skyrocket as soon as news changes, but there will still be an opportunity.

I am just gonna do one of each if I get into any. I like MAR, UAL, RCL. But I’m also open to LUV, NCLH or CCL, depending on who “takes off” first. I’m in an out of DIS as well. They’re in the same neighborhood IMO, even if not on the same street as airlines, etc.


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disney has basically recovered to precorona values. it's not really in the same place as travel stocks which are still down 50% or more

[JWD531]

Originally Posted by huncho

disney has basically recovered to precorona values. it's not really in the same place as travel stocks which are still down 50% or more

I’m speaking less in terms of valuation and more in terms of a portion of their portfolio being involved in leisure activities, and those in which involve travel. They’ve made it almost back to pre-COVID levels, but if their parks were all open and operating at full capacity, they’d be well above those pre COVID levels IMO. Therefore, their growth has been hindered a bit. Once people start traveling more and aren’t worried about large gatherings, they’re very likely to jump much higher.


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