Talking Stocks 2.0

[beshannon]

Walmart +6% after e-commerce surge leads to earnings smasher

https://seekingalpha.com/news/360658...rnings-smasher

I do not have a position in WMT

[JWD531]

Originally Posted by 904VT

Disney is also in a 60/40 joint venture with Comcast regarding Hulu. I'd put much greater growth projections for that business segment than I would Disney +. Hulu with its parents who they are, gets access to all ESPN Gameday channels too at no additional costs. If college sports ever come back, those channels alone are a big advantage over traditional cable.

Originally Posted by 904VT

Disney is also in a 60/40 joint venture with Comcast regarding Hulu. I'd put much greater growth projections for that business segment than I would Disney +. Hulu with its parents who they are, gets access to all ESPN Gameday channels too at no additional costs. If college sports ever come back, those channels alone are a big advantage over traditional cable.

Ya, I know ESPN is a big draw and even more once sports get back to normal. I always wished for an option for ONLY ESPN-1-2-U, FSSW, TNT, TBS, ABC, NBC, CBS, FOX, FS1, NHLN, NBCSN. I always knew it was unrealistic or would be too expensive. We have now transitioned “too far” past a la cart so now you need not one but 8 subscriptions to get everything you want. And then everyone will eventually JV or buyout and we’ll be back stuck with an oligopoly again. At least that’s my perception and prediction. Sorry to ramble.


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[beshannon]

U.S. housing starts total 1.496 million in July, vs 1.240 million expected

We have had a project pushed back twice due to our contractor not being able to get materials. HD stock is soaring.

It is not always easy to spot a trend but this one is smacking people in the face.

I am reviewing the XLB and other material names to add to my core HD position. I already own LYB and PPG and may add to those.

Names I am looking at are MAS, FAST, ITW and CTAS

[chsu74]

HD and Lowe is more reno than home building.

I am in CCS, DHI and NAIL

[JParm]

Back in action after a week away gents.

SE posted very strong earnings this morning, accounting for the 10% rise. Still underrated in my opinion.

Have been adding to my position in FSLY; long-term, this price point is a discount and has shown to be a solid base here at the 76 level.

Continuing monitor AAPL and have yet to open positions in any retail/cyclicals, outside of the LEAPS I've mentioned previously.

Still a long way to go to get to that widely distributed vaccine, so big and small tech remains my core holdings for now.

[beshannon]

Just started small positions in MAS and SPG

[aes7.5x55]

Thanks 904VT, that is very helpful. I appreciate it!

[glenn_herwig]

Out of TQQQ @ 135.04. Been holding BX and SPG. Holding some cash. Let’s see.

[logo]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Back in action after a week away gents.

SE posted very strong earnings this morning, accounting for the 10% rise. Still underrated in my opinion.

Have been adding to my position in FSLY; long-term, this price point is a discount and has shown to be a solid base here at the 76 level.

Continuing monitor AAPL and have yet to open positions in any retail/cyclicals, outside of the LEAPS I've mentioned previously.

Still a long way to go to get to that widely distributed vaccine, so big and small tech remains my core holdings for now.

That's key. A lot of people worry about missing out on "the big rocket" of the cyclicals/retail, but there is really unlikely to be a one day climb. For that to happen, you'd need (a) proven efficacy and safety of a vaccine in phase 3 trials, ideally published in a medical journal, (b) FDA approval for administration, (c) capacity to manufacture and administer the vaccine in large numbers, or at least in those at greatest risk, (d) do a-c before widespread transmission occurs, (e) hope that revenues return to pre-covid levels in these businesses. All that is not going to happen in one day, so plenty of time to add when the time is right.

[mbalmz]

Originally Posted by beshannon

U.S. housing starts total 1.496 million in July, vs 1.240 million expected

We have had a project pushed back twice due to our contractor not being able to get materials. HD stock is soaring.

It is not always easy to spot a trend but this one is smacking people in the face.

I am reviewing the XLB and other material names to add to my core HD position. I already own LYB and PPG and may add to those.

Names I am looking at are MAS, FAST, ITW and CTAS

wouldn’t the counter-argument here be that the july figure was several months’ worth of pent up/delayed (on account of lockdowns) demand for housing that’s now getting caught up but won’t necessarily mean continually increasing demand going forward?

the job loss has to have some impact on demand for home-building the next few years I’d think.

Any thoughts on that view?

[Hard_Six]

Originally Posted by mbalmz

wouldn’t the counter-argument here be that the july figure was several months’ worth of pent up/delayed (on account of lockdowns) demand for housing that’s now getting caught up but won’t necessarily mean continually increasing demand going forward?

the job loss has to have some impact on demand for home-building the next few years I’d think.

Any thoughts on that view?

I have some thoughts. It’s possible you are correct, although I believe there are a few other factors at play...

First off, there was a lack of housing supply in several major markets prior to COVID. So additional units were already warranted. Particularly within the “affordable” price point. This supply problem however was further exacerbated by the pandemic because it has led to far fewer “existing” units being listed. This is likely due to the fact that would-be sellers are holding off on listing their homes (maybe to avoid potentially infected strangers walking through them during showings). That additional lack of supply has bode well for builders (as their inventory has less on the market to compete with).

As it pertains to the unemployment aspect of it, I saw an article awhile back (and now I’m struggling to find it) but it was saying something along the lines of around 80% of the initial jobless claims filed due to COVID were service related positions (retail, hospitality, restaurant, etc...) and that roughly 2/3 of those affected were renters. Meaning the impact to multi family (particularly class B and C) would be greater than single-family for sale. I’m regurgitating what I recall here so take that with a grain of salt but either way, that would make sense to me.

On top of all that, we have the lowest 30-yr mortgage rates recorded by Freddie Mac going back 50+ years which I believe is driving buyers big time. So if someone is on the fence about buying, has proof of current income, and can close on a loan, there is a good bit of incentive to purchase in the near term. I also think that will continue for the foreseeable future. .

Just my 2 cents.

[JWD531]

Originally Posted by mbalmz

wouldn’t the counter-argument here be that the july figure was several months’ worth of pent up/delayed (on account of lockdowns) demand for housing that’s now getting caught up but won’t necessarily mean continually increasing demand going forward?

the job loss has to have some impact on demand for home-building the next few years I’d think.

Any thoughts on that view?

Interest rates are so low it’s hard not to take advantage. Also May-Jul is a bit of a sweet spot as home prices have not gone up too much yet combined with rates tremendously low. Housing market also tends to do well during a recession. Also, the demand is still projected to outpace supply for another year or two. I’m not sure how any migrations from big cities to suburbs will affect that, but there could be an impact there too if the COVID exodus continues.

The markets that were already hot are on fire. I know folks that are coming to Houston as I was leaving that couldn’t put in offers fast enough. With the delays of some people taking their homes off the market, that also spiked demand. That may have also pushed some people to build.


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[kearez]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Walmart +6% after e-commerce surge leads to earnings smasher

https://seekingalpha.com/news/360658...rnings-smasher

I do not have a position in WMT

Unfortunately never added WMT myself. I see strong growth in the future especially health care sector, and e-commerce.

[jltait]

Originally Posted by JWD531

I’m not sure how any migrations from big cities to suburbs will affect that, but there could be an impact there too if the COVID exodus continues.

That’s how I see it too. Demand from those fleeing the city is there but inventory is not. Thus higher sale prices and home builder valuations. Saw some CNBC report the other day that something like 15% of all NYC apartments are currently vacant. Amazing if true.

[jltait]

Has anyone bought into one of these fancy special purpose acquisition vehicles (SPACs) lately?

[beshannon]

TGT and LOW both crushed earnings, futures slightly positive

Target, Lowe's, Nvidia and Joe Biden - 5 Things You Must Know Wednesday

https://www.thestreet.com/markets/5-...dnesday-081920

NVDA reports tonight and SRNE terminated their CFO, stock down 10%

GILD had an FDA application halted for more data, stock down 5%

Analysts are cautioning on the retailers that are beating that the third quarter might be a different story. I am holding my core position in HD and I am not chasing TGT or LOW. I expect COST to report the same but not chasing there either. I feel there are too many opportunities in materials and staples along with tech to play the retail game.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jltait

Has anyone bought into one of these fancy special purpose acquisition vehicles (SPACs) lately?

No as they serve no real purpose other than to enrich the creators of the SPAC

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spac.asp

[-dustin]

i'm a bit intrigued by SRNE at the moment.

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by jltait

Has anyone bought into one of these fancy special purpose acquisition vehicles (SPACs) lately?

Yes. CCH aka UTZ potato chips.

[-dustin]

I half-heartedly bought into some KIRK last week. I don't even remember why. But it seems to be paying off. Not something I plan on keeping around, and I don't really know what's behind the upward swing. I'll take it, though.

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by -dustin

i'm a bit intrigued by SRNE at the moment.

Tread lightly, I've been down this road before and it leads to heartbreak

[Zack21]

Originally Posted by -dustin

i'm a bit intrigued by SRNE at the moment.

I decided to sell my position in SRNE after the announcement the CFO was abruptly terminated without providing additional information and/or an explanation. I just felt there was too much downside risk.

[cornerstore]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/19/busin...omy/index.html

[beshannon]

Latest S&P targets



Markets flattish, waiting for NVDA and still digesting retail earnings. I don't expect much movement in the next two weeks, volume is really thin with little trading being done.

[piratepress]

Interesting...

Saudi Arabia's $300 billion sovereign wealth fund sold off 50% of its stake in Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway and ditched its stakes in the likes of Facebook, Boeing, and Disney.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/...-8-1029513501#

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by piratepress

Interesting...

Saudi Arabia's $300 billion sovereign wealth fund sold off 50% of its stake in Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway and ditched its stakes in the likes of Facebook, Boeing, and Disney.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/...-8-1029513501#

Not sure what to read into that, given the price of oil and the current pandemic situation it may just be they are hoarding cash.

In any case as an individual investor I have no problem with selling everything that they did and would not have been a buyer in the first place.

[kearez]

Im not too concerned about that. I exited my BA position a last month. Had no problem adding BRK.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by logo

That's key. A lot of people worry about missing out on "the big rocket" of the cyclicals/retail, but there is really unlikely to be a one day climb. For that to happen, you'd need (a) proven efficacy and safety of a vaccine in phase 3 trials, ideally published in a medical journal, (b) FDA approval for administration, (c) capacity to manufacture and administer the vaccine in large numbers, or at least in those at greatest risk, (d) do a-c before widespread transmission occurs, (e) hope that revenues return to pre-covid levels in these businesses. All that is not going to happen in one day, so plenty of time to add when the time is right.

Part of the reason why I haven't been as engaged (outside of vacation!) is the fact that not much has changed over the last couple weeks after earnings.

My holdings, of which there are only 9 and all pretty much in tech, are all I'm really keeping an eye on. Nothing else is of interest at the moment due to that lack of a vaccine to push other stocks higher.

Most know I'm here for growth and not dividends, and I've found those stocks which provide what I need for now.

Though Cramer can be frustrating to listen to, at times he does provide that "no-brainer" insight. Keep in my mind, this has been the same story all spring / summer:

It’s not “classic recovery stocks” — industrials or retail or banks — pushing indexes to new highs. Rather, it’s the likes of Apple AAPL, 0.66% , Amazon AMZ, +0.69% and Microsoft MSFT, -0.01% .

“The winners in this market are the companies that are most divorced from the underlying economy,” Cramer said on his “Mad Money” show on Tuesday. “The actual economy is in precarious shape, especially now that the government’s stimulus package has run out and Congress went home for the summer rather than trying to come up with a replacement.”

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-...S%3D1597864167

On top of that, you've got this commentary on the banks, which don't look to recover "anytime soon". With that, there's just no reason to hurry into the beaten down names with my strategy. I understand why you would if you're there for dividends, but even those are in a precarious situation.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/ban...?mod=hp_LATEST

[HippoPAPAmus]

NVDA beat. Will be interesting to see how folks react tomorrow.


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[beshannon]

Nvidia, Alibaba, Airbnb, Federal Reserve - 5 Things You Must Know Thursday

https://www.thestreet.com/markets/5-...hursday-082020

NVDA was priced for perfection down slightly in the pre-market. I would like to add but I just do not see it dropping enough

INTC with a 10bb stock buyback, I am sticking with my positions