Talking Stocks 2.0

[ELLimon]

Originally Posted by huncho

apple has a cult following but the difference between apple and tesla is there are over a billion apple devices out there and each use their services. i maybe see one tesla a day here in nyc

i agree though, i don't consider tesla a car company. it fits more into tech category

I’m in San Francisco Bay Area and I see Tesla’s everywhere, they are very popular.

Apple at over 2T has to be overpriced.

[ELLimon]

Sold everything today.

Got some profits (not as big as 2 days ago :( ). And exited the market. I’ll get back in in Nov5.

[logo]

Originally Posted by Duey

Until we see Tesla for it's true value as a car company , (it's not a tech stock guys) It's a Cult. No other company with these numbers would exist in the world.

Agree with you - Tesla is not a tech company. Also, they are not an energy company. I like to consider the "poof" test - taking investments out of the mix, if TSLA as a company disappeared (poof, gone) tomorrow, who would care or even realize a difference in daily life? Extremely few. Conversely, take away NVDA, NKE, XOM, HD - all companies valued equal or less than TSLA, and basically everyone would feel that loss. To say nothing about MSFT/GOOGL/AAPL - no connectivity, no internet.

TSLA is important because they brought EVs to mass appeal. That is important and gives them advantage, and maybe they might grow into something more important down the road. But right now I view them as tremendously overvalued (even at the dip to 375 today) because so much of that price is based on hype, future "expectation", casual investors not recognizing that SpaceX, Neuralink and Boring Company are not TSLA, and of course a 300M valuation for Elon alone.

[aes7.5x55]

I'm pretty proud of myself, I ended the day up one whole cent!

[RyanO]

Kind of a wild day today. Have to be honest I nearly panic sold several of my positions, which is often a bullish sign. Today’s price action managed to hold and even firm up which suggests to me the uptrend is still intact. I think a pullback was absolutely due, but I think it was overdone to an extend in several names.

Anyone have thoughts on today and going forward?


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[cornerstore]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla...200529902.html

The problems? Let’s see. Take away “FSD (full self-driving) and credit sales in 2020,” and Johnson believes TSLA will lose roughly $200 million “in both 3Q20 and 4Q20,” adding “the core business is still a perpetual loss maker.”

[Zack21]

I know some of you have mentioned DKNG and I was thinking of a small position in either DKNG or PENN. Does anyone have any thoughts on why one over the other (or another option) in this gaming segment. Thanks.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by Zack21

I know some of you have mentioned DKNG and I was thinking of a small position in either DKNG or PENN. Does anyone have any thoughts on why one over the other (or another option) in this gaming segment. Thanks.

dkng imo is better because they have the fantasy market on lock and millions of people ready to start gambling once it's legalized in more states and their app already supports both

[HippoPAPAmus]

Originally Posted by huncho

dkng imo is better because they have the fantasy market on lock and millions of people ready to start gambling once it's legalized in more states and their app already supports both

I agree. I think this stock has a bright future as more and more states legalize to get a cut of the action. In the short term, if the NFL manages to play a full season, I think DKNG will do great. If the season gets canceled, we may well see a panic sell off so have your stops in place. I added some more on the dip today, but will not hesitate to pull the plug if the season is threatened.


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[Zack21]

Huncho and H-papa: Very helpful. Thanks.

[austinp]

Originally Posted by Zack21

I know some of you have mentioned DKNG and I was thinking of a small position in either DKNG or PENN. Does anyone have any thoughts on why one over the other (or another option) in this gaming segment. Thanks.

I like and own both but especially like PENN. The Barstool sports connection with their extremely loyal followers should really take off once their gambling platform goes online this month.


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[logo]

TSLA dumping 6.5% AH after no inclusion in S&P. https://apple.news/A5cUgm75BT0Kz2edULjY-pw

70% gain on split announcement, dumps 30% on a bad week, rises with random Elon tweets, and huge volatility from things that don’t really affect the underlying business. Trades like a penny stock - too much hype and “expectation” factored into its current price. Rug could get pulled swiftly.

[Zack21]

Originally Posted by austinp

I like and own both but especially like PENN. The Barstool sports connection with their extremely loyal followers should really take off once their gambling platform goes online this month.


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Thanks. Maybe a small take of each makes sense.

[Duey]

Originally Posted by logo

TSLA dumping 6.5% AH after no inclusion in S&P. https://apple.news/A5cUgm75BT0Kz2edULjY-pw

70% gain on split announcement, dumps 30% on a bad week, rises with random Elon tweets, and huge volatility from things that don’t really affect the underlying business. Trades like a penny stock - too much hype and “expectation” factored into its current price. Rug could get pulled swiftly.

TSLA was considered way over valued by most traders when it was at 62 ( 310 before the split ) so it has a long way to go before reality hits. But hey it's Elon so it's got to be good right ?

[-dustin]

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/...rvalued-right/

Article calls out TSLA and DKNG. I’ve got my eye on DKNG, but have trouble committing.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by -dustin

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/...rvalued-right/

Article calls out TSLA and DKNG. I’ve got my eye on DKNG, but have trouble committing.

i agree, i initially wanted to get into it around 19 but kept waiting for a dip that never happened. feel like i can't get in right now because it feels overvalued but i think its a super long term hold so depends on if you're into that

[Vishy26]

Agree with you guys on some points. You buy the car, it gets better with software updates later on. That was something unheard of before Tesla. Tesla chip, AI, software updates etc with all these, what else is it if its not a tech company?

Tesla is undoubtedly a tech company that makes cars. But its just terrible to hide in that mask forever and not sell a good number of cars. A point comes in future where it should make the pricing work, sell enough cars and post good numbers out there. Otherwise, how & where else would it show off this tech? A tech that is miles ahead of every other car manufacturer at this stage. If it can't, would be bad luck to its shareholders

[logo]

Originally Posted by Vishy26

Agree with you guys on some points. You buy the car, it gets better with software updates later on. That was something unheard of before Tesla. Tesla chip, AI, software updates etc with all these, what else is it if its not a tech company?

Tesla is undoubtedly a tech company that makes cars. But its just terrible to hide in that mask forever and not sell a good number of cars. A point comes in future where it should make the pricing work, sell enough cars and post good numbers out there. Otherwise, how & where else would it show off this tech? A tech that is miles ahead of every other car manufacturer at this stage. If it can't, would be bad luck to its shareholders

I’m afraid much of this is fallacy perpetuated by Elon’s own hype for his company, rather than fact. He’s a smart man from a technical perspective, but there’s a reason he’s CEO - he’s a grade-A salesman.

I work in AI/engineering and Medicine, so I’ll comment on a few things, just to highlight that while Tesla likes to announce they do a lot of tech things, this doesn’t differ from any other automaker.

You’ve mentioned Tesla’s AI. Well, basically every major company on Earth does AI now. In fact, if you don’t, you are falling behind. From product recommendations, to understanding customer behavior, to oil drilling, to healthcare, to cars - yes, ALL cars. So the question is does Tesla’s AI do something entirely unique? No it does not, or at least not in terms of how the AI works - it differs on the data it uses. Several other builders have similar or better functionality, and even in regards to complete autonomous driving there are other players in the space. Their tech here is not miles ahead by any means, despite Elon’s claims: https://www.businessinsider.com/tesl...t-works-2020-7

You also mentioned the Tesla chip. This was a marketing 101 lesson from Elon. Build a chip, declare its modelled after “the human nervous system”, say how many billions or trillions of operations it can perform, and the masses salivate. However, their chip is not revolutionary by any means, and inferior to Nvidia chips on the AI front - their chip was built for the sole purpose of their cars, to fit within other design constraints of their cars specifically. Will anyone else buy from them? Unlikely, because they’d probably just get the Nvidia one if AI is the goal. This is building tech as a secondary thing for their cars - I.e., they are a car maker first, that requires tech, same as every other car maker on the planet. Only difference is that Tesla decided to make their own, while most others would not because the economics may not make sense. https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.forb...g-panacea/amp/

When you label your products as “Full Self Driving,” when they are not, or call a chip a human brain when it’s nowhere close, and call your car the “cybertruck” and make it look like it’s from the year 2200, it’s hard to see Tesla as anything other than a tech company. But with a closer inspection and deeper dive into what it is they actually have and do, it becomes clear that Elon’s claim of “we do no advertising” is bogus - it’s all advertising, just not in the traditional sense, and that has prompted everyone to see the company as something bigger than what they actually are. It also doesn’t help that the concept of AI and GPUs and supercomputers etc are moving so rapidly, that most don’t know the details of what all these things mean - how does a Tsla chip compare to an NVDA GPU? What are tensor cores? What does an artificial neural network actually mean? So they quickly become buzz words.

Disclosure, I actually really like Tesla’s. It’s a great car to drive, and the company has done a great job building a nice electric car that has a lot of functionality, with a lot of dedicated buyers and hype, and so the company has value. But a tech company they are not, it’s just a means to building their cars, and at 1200x PE, that’s a huge pass for me on the investment front.

[Zack21]

The TSLA discussion has been really interesting and informative. I have been tempted to invest in this stock for well over a year (probably longer) but just never felt like the price made sense. Of course, we all know how well that decision worked out. Even at what I consider a crazy p/e of 250, that would bring the stock price down to $96/share and that doesn't look likely. I realize there are plenty of high flying stocks that don't even make a profit but, as has been posted numerous times, the value just doesn't seem to be there. That being said, I congratulate those that pulled the trigger and made some extreme gains.

[logo]

Originally Posted by Zack21

The TSLA discussion has been really interesting and informative. I have been tempted to invest in this stock for well over a year (probably longer) but just never felt like the price made sense. Of course, we all know how well that decision worked out. Even at what I consider a crazy p/e of 250, that would bring the stock price down to $96/share and that doesn't look likely. I realize there are plenty of high flying stocks that don't even make a profit but, as has been posted numerous times, the value just doesn't seem to be there. That being said, I congratulate those that pulled the trigger and made some extreme gains.

Well, money making in Tesla has only been a thing for 6 months. It all comes down to what you believe the company is worth down the road. Remember Warren Buffet: “ Price is what you pay. Value is what you get” and that “the market is marvellous at transferring money from the inpatient to the patient.” Eventually, high flyers revert to their rightful value and the inpatient buying Tesla at these prices might get burned.

[Vishy26]

Originally Posted by logo

I’m afraid much of this is fallacy perpetuated by Elon’s own hype for his company, rather than fact. He’s a smart man from a technical perspective, but there’s a reason he’s CEO - he’s a grade-A salesman.

I work in AI/engineering and Medicine, so I’ll comment on a few things, just to highlight that while Tesla likes to announce they do a lot of tech things, this doesn’t differ from any other automaker.

You’ve mentioned Tesla’s AI. Well, basically every major company on Earth does AI now. In fact, if you don’t, you are falling behind. From product recommendations, to understanding customer behavior, to oil drilling, to healthcare, to cars - yes, ALL cars. So the question is does Tesla’s AI do something entirely unique? No it does not, or at least not in terms of how the AI works - it differs on the data it uses. Several other builders have similar or better functionality, and even in regards to complete autonomous driving there are other players in the space. Their tech here is not miles ahead by any means, despite Elon’s claims: https://www.businessinsider.com/tesl...t-works-2020-7

You also mentioned the Tesla chip. This was a marketing 101 lesson from Elon. Build a chip, declare its modelled after “the human nervous system”, say how many billions or trillions of operations it can perform, and the masses salivate. However, their chip is not revolutionary by any means, and inferior to Nvidia chips on the AI front - their chip was built for the sole purpose of their cars, to fit within other design constraints of their cars specifically. Will anyone else buy from them? Unlikely, because they’d probably just get the Nvidia one if AI is the goal. This is building tech as a secondary thing for their cars - I.e., they are a car maker first, that requires tech, same as every other car maker on the planet. Only difference is that Tesla decided to make their own, while most others would not because the economics may not make sense. https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.forb...g-panacea/amp/

When you label your products as “Full Self Driving,” when they are not, or call a chip a human brain when it’s nowhere close, and call your car the “cybertruck” and make it look like it’s from the year 2200, it’s hard to see Tesla as anything other than a tech company. But with a closer inspection and deeper dive into what it is they actually have and do, it becomes clear that Elon’s claim of “we do no advertising” is bogus - it’s all advertising, just not in the traditional sense, and that has prompted everyone to see the company as something bigger than what they actually are. It also doesn’t help that the concept of AI and GPUs and supercomputers etc are moving so rapidly, that most don’t know the details of what all these things mean - how does a Tsla chip compare to an NVDA GPU? What are tensor cores? What does an artificial neural network actually mean? So they quickly become buzz words.

Disclosure, I actually really like Tesla’s. It’s a great car to drive, and the company has done a great job building a nice electric car that has a lot of functionality, with a lot of dedicated buyers and hype, and so the company has value. But a tech company they are not, it’s just a means to building their cars, and at 1200x PE, that’s a huge pass for me on the investment front.

(Note: I am not a proponent of self-driving cars, they are nowhere near there as of now)

Good post. Actually, I agree with some of the points you wrote.

Anyway, cutting down the chase here.. Is there a car offered by any automobile manufacturer that could be bought by general public right now that has better Self-Driving capabilities than that of Tesla's? (That car's self-driving capabilities don't need to be anywhere close to perfect... All it needs to do is this.. Make less mistakes than Tesla's, and it beats it)
No further argument from here. Happy to stand corrected. If there is one, Telsa's tech isn't ahead

[logo]

Originally Posted by Vishy26

(Note: I am not a proponent of self-driving cars, they are nowhere near there as of now)

Good post. Actually, I agree with some of the points you wrote.

Anyway, cutting down the chase here.. Is there a car offered by any automobile manufacturer that could be bought by general public right now that has better Self-Driving capabilities than that of Tesla's? (That car's self-driving capabilities don't need to be anywhere close to perfect... All it needs to do is this.. Make less mistakes than Tesla's, and it beats it)
No further argument from here. Happy to stand corrected. If there is one, Telsa's tech isn't ahead

GM is probably the biggest currently, via Cadillac. Many believe the self-driving aspects that the Cadillac currently performs to be superior to Tesla, but that the Tesla has a bit of a broader capability currently, largely by difference in philosophy: Tesla releases things in beta to seem like the “hot tech company” so that drivers are the ones testing and giving data back to Tesla, GM does their own testing first so that the product they release is at its perfection by the time the public gets it. I’d imagine GM has plenty of tech cooking up behind the scenes that’s similar to all the beta stuff Tesla is releasing, but by philosophy we won’t see that on a publicly available GM vehicle until they feel it’s ready.

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-...cruise-2017-10

[JWD531]

Originally Posted by logo

GM is probably the biggest currently, via Cadillac. Many believe the self-driving aspects that the Cadillac currently performs to be superior to Tesla, but that the Tesla has a bit of a broader capability currently, largely by difference in philosophy: Tesla releases things in beta to seem like the “hot tech company” so that drivers are the ones testing and giving data back to Tesla, GM does their own testing first so that the product they release is at its perfection by the time the public gets it. I’d imagine GM has plenty of tech cooking up behind the scenes that’s similar to all the beta stuff Tesla is releasing, but by philosophy we won’t see that on a publicly available GM vehicle until they feel it’s ready.

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-...cruise-2017-10

My guess is that a new company like Tesla can get away with that philosophy. Whereas a GM release that wasn’t perfect would probably get so much more negative publicity.


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[cornerstore]

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.barr...ly-51599239365
The FT reported, citing sources familiar with the situation, that “SoftBank is the ‘Nasdaq whale’ that has bought billions of dollars’ worth of US equity derivatives in a move that stoked the fevered rally in big tech stocks before a sharp pullback on Thursday.”

[beshannon]

Starting to look like a blow off to the down side. Getting cash ready, many names to add here for me.

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Starting to look like a blow off to the down side. Getting cash ready, many names to add here for me.

At what levels are you comfortable adding Brian?


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[beshannon]

Originally Posted by RyanO

At what levels are you comfortable adding Brian?


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Depends on the individual stocks, I am looking at TSLA at the open, AAPL at 113 is nice, would like to have it go lower. V back below 200 looks better to me.

Since Tech was such a huge percentage of the NASDAQ these moves look outsized just as they did to the upside.

Most of the Industrials and Materials I have been rotating into are still rising even in a falling market. CAT, IP, LYB are all up nicely.

Finally people should be thoughtful and stick to their discipline. Just as not chasing up is a good idea, grabbing on the way down can be bad too.

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Depends on the individual stocks, I am looking at TSLA at the open, AAPL at 113 is nice, would like to have it go lower. V back below 200 looks better to me.

Since Tech was such a huge percentage of the NASDAQ these moves look outsized just as they did to the upside.

Most of the Industrials and Materials I have been rotating into are still rising even in a falling market. CAT, IP, LYB are all up nicely.

Finally people should be thoughtful and stick to their discipline. Just as not chasing up is a good idea, grabbing on the way down can be bad too.

As always, appreciate your input. Tech has definitely lost some momentum as I believe investors are seeing the value in cyclicals combined with the expectation that we get back to business as usual soon. I doubt that's going to happen but for the sake of the economy and just life in general am hopeful it does.

I can't help but think that many of these technology names look far more attractive at these levels despite folks abandoning ship. I'd like to think that a year from now, they are far more valuable than they're trading today but am concerned about a more significant move to the downside.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by RyanO

I can't help but think that many of these technology names look far more attractive at these levels despite folks abandoning ship. I'd like to think that a year from now, they are far more valuable than they're trading today but am concerned about a more significant move to the downside.

I agree

Most people cannot look beyond today. Panic is not a strategy, discipline needs to define action

[ndls]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I agree :thumbsup

Most people cannot look beyond today. Panic is not a strategy, discipline needs to define action

Agreed. Though I sold my TSLA at 480 (entry 270 split adjusted). I love the company, but trades like a penny stock. Told myself that any change >10% and I’m out.

That being said, I suspect I’ll be down 10% in my overall portfolio as of today, but. That’s too be expected. If we’re all thinking long term, a correction back to 5-6 weeks ago isn’t the worst, but I would like most of my stock to not drop below their 21 and 50 day moving averages.

Good luck to all today. Looks like a bloodbath for tech.