Talking Stocks 2.0

[JWD531]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Until we get some inflation and interest rates rise, the financials will be challenged. It could be years away. If you want to look at financials look for solid balance sheets, and undervalued prices relative to the size of their loan book and fee income.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/362169...rt-sector-open

Ya, my financial holdings are JPM for national, V for credit, CINF for a regional and ICE to cover the exchanges. CINF and JPM are a smaller % of my portfolio at the moment.


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[JParm]

Originally Posted by KaVo8

Great point regarding id the leader among the group. I’ve been following Cathie Wood/ARK investment ETF PRNT. it’s been performing well for the 3D printing sector.

Thanks for your opinion, a different perspective.


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Getting into the ETF is a good way to provide some exposure for sure.

I'm usually a stock-picker, but I don't think that's a bad way to do it in this instance. Can't go wrong with Cathie / ARK.

[-dustin]

Originally Posted by G8RDPM

This has been my most followed thread on TRF for a while!

ditto. and it's kind of helped navigate the steep learning curve.

[logo]

Speaking of ARK, they picked up a position in NET yesterday :)

Added OTRK on the dip yesterday, always nice to start a position with the next day being up big.

[JWD531]

Originally Posted by -dustin

ditto. and it's kind of helped navigate the steep learning curve.

Ditto here too. Especially in the era of so many AD/market complaint posts. I also enjoy the food and travel posts.


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[KaVo8]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Getting into the ETF is a good way to provide some exposure for sure.

I'm usually a stock-picker, but I don't think that's a bad way to do it in this instance. Can't go wrong with Cathie / ARK.

Definitely, thank you for recommending AMWL. I got in around 28/share 20+% in two weeks is not too shabby.


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[tudorbaja27]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Getting into the ETF is a good way to provide some exposure for sure.

I'm usually a stock-picker, but I don't think that's a bad way to do it in this instance. Can't go wrong with Cathie / ARK.

Recently got into ARK across all their ETFs

[JParm]

Originally Posted by KaVo8

Definitely, thank you for recommending AMWL. I got in around 28/share 20+% in two weeks is not too shabby.


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Glad to be part of this thread where we can all help each other out!

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/...her-on-monday/

Not sure if you caught this yesterday, but a couple firms initiated coverage on AMWL with targets in the low 40's, so definitely still room to run.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by tudorbaja27

Recently got into ARK across all their ETFs

Not a bad place to live

[KaVo8]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Glad to be part of this thread where we can all help each other out!

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/...her-on-monday/

Not sure if you caught this yesterday, but a couple firms initiated coverage on AMWL with targets in the low 40's, so definitely still room to run.

I can see why there’s more legs to run up for these telemedicine companies. I’m long TDOC & LVGO as well. Cheers


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[JParm]

Pretty weak close to end the day.

I am a bit surprised though that the combination of both J&J and Eli Lilly pausing their vaccine trials didn't cause a larger downfall today. The market remains resilient...

[beshannon]

Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Apple, Walmart - 5 Things You Must Know Wednesday

https://www.thestreet.com/markets/5-...dnesday-101420

More quiet trading awaiting earnings

[jaisonline]

Same thought here.

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Pretty weak close to end the day.

I am a bit surprised though that the combination of both J&J and Eli Lilly pausing their vaccine trials didn't cause a larger downfall today. The market remains resilient...

[JParm]

Goldman crushes, while BoA and Wells miss.

Goldman's earnings weren't even close - nearly double what the analysts predicted. I have no position in any of the 3, but I take this as a sign that Q3 earnings will again be all over the place, as it's essentially guesswork (more so than usual) by the analysts at this point.

As I said yesterday, money is on the ready for post-earnings swings. I'm looking for tech names that maybe have run a bit hot; names that will produce great numbers but maybe the price will swing way down south because of the runup. As long as the fundamentals are sound, I'll be jumping into a few more names if I see double-digit percent swings in stock prices.

[beshannon]

Markets churning and digesting earnings

I added to my AAPL positions today, started a position in COP after the dividend raise and the CXO acquisition

[logo]

So I’m half considering selling a portion of my positions pre-earnings or pre November, and the other half says let it ride with stop losses. Happy with my positions as long holds, and truthfully have no idea if they’ll go up or down post-earnings (despite the fact I think their earnings will be strong), but want to avoid backpedaling if extreme volatility were to occur again. Any advice or opinions on stop loss setting? I’m sitting at like 5% cash now only. Don’t want them too tight or too loose, also don’t want to just watch a stock tick down 1% daily over several days thinking “well 1% down today is fine” over and over. Realizing this is super dependent on the inherent volatility of the individual stocks I own, wondering if anyone has any general thoughts on protecting gains as we head into potential volatility.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by logo

So I’m half considering selling a portion of my positions pre-earnings or pre November, and the other half says let it ride with stop losses. Happy with my positions as long holds, and truthfully have no idea if they’ll go up or down post-earnings (despite the fact I think their earnings will be strong), but want to avoid backpedaling if extreme volatility were to occur again. Any advice or opinions on stop loss setting? I’m sitting at like 5% cash now only. Don’t want them too tight or too loose, also don’t want to just watch a stock tick down 1% daily over several days thinking “well 1% down today is fine” over and over. Realizing this is super dependent on the inherent volatility of the individual stocks I own, wondering if anyone has any general thoughts on protecting gains as we head into potential volatility.

Well not sure I have any specific advice, just some observations.

If you are looking to protect gains, how much of that gain are you willing to give back before you sell?

If you had stops on back in March and got stopped out, look where you would be now. I usually only put stops on if I believe the downside risk is severe and right now I have no stops on even though I am expecting volatility because I believe we will be higher in 12-18 months.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by logo

So I’m half considering selling a portion of my positions pre-earnings or pre November, and the other half says let it ride with stop losses. Happy with my positions as long holds, and truthfully have no idea if they’ll go up or down post-earnings (despite the fact I think their earnings will be strong), but want to avoid backpedaling if extreme volatility were to occur again. Any advice or opinions on stop loss setting? I’m sitting at like 5% cash now only. Don’t want them too tight or too loose, also don’t want to just watch a stock tick down 1% daily over several days thinking “well 1% down today is fine” over and over. Realizing this is super dependent on the inherent volatility of the individual stocks I own, wondering if anyone has any general thoughts on protecting gains as we head into potential volatility.

I'll give you my two cents - I'm not a stop-loss setter, and I don't think we'll see that continual 1-2% decrease down, pre or post-earnings in strong, fundamentally sound companies.

Obviously you know I'm a bull, but I'd much rather go for the ride than to sell out prematurely and think "what if". My opinion is that we will be higher in 12-18 months, and the incremental gains from pulling out (with thoughts about taxes) is not enough to pass up on potentially higher longer-term gains.

If it's companies that you aren't 100% sure of, I'd understand that. But for the blue chips / the ones that you are completely sold on, I would personally just stay put. 1 bad earnings call doesn't break the back - I added into PINS right before they got crushed after Q1 (that report and fallout was painful), and have held since - now up over 80% in the stock. Just 1 example, but it was a company that I truly believed in.

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by logo

So I’m half considering selling a portion of my positions pre-earnings or pre November, and the other half says let it ride with stop losses. Happy with my positions as long holds, and truthfully have no idea if they’ll go up or down post-earnings (despite the fact I think their earnings will be strong), but want to avoid backpedaling if extreme volatility were to occur again. Any advice or opinions on stop loss setting? I’m sitting at like 5% cash now only. Don’t want them too tight or too loose, also don’t want to just watch a stock tick down 1% daily over several days thinking “well 1% down today is fine” over and over. Realizing this is super dependent on the inherent volatility of the individual stocks I own, wondering if anyone has any general thoughts on protecting gains as we head into potential volatility.

I haven't contributed to this thread for ages but I still read it several times a day. Like many, I pumped cash into stocks in March/April and enjoyed a huge bounce but..... I cashed out too many positions to "protect gains" even though I knew, rationally, that the companies I was in were still undervalued and would recover more. I still did nicely but I ended up buying back into those companies at higher prices than my March entry points because you know.....TINA, cash has no value.
jpeezy is right when he says you are better off in the market than out of it (I think Buffet also said "never" when asked what the best time to close a position was).
So logo.... I've been there and I did close positions to protect gains and I'm kicking myself. I've banked some cash, treated myself to a few things which is all hunky dory but it isn't what I should have done. I've worked hard to get back into the market on dips (NET and FSLY have been good for this recently, as has AMZN) and this time I have no stops set and won't look to protect gains by liquidating green positions into cash. I'm still sat on 10% cash which isn't even earning buttons.
Just my tuppence.

[-dustin]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

I'd much rather go for the ride than to sell out prematurely and think "what if".

another part of that steep learning curve. i've hit a few stop-losses only to see it bounce back. i didn't sweat it too much as i wasn't wholly into the company, still kind of annoying..."what if". Read a little spot about AMWL on Monday that suggested a $33.69 stop loss, which was hit at around 10:30 this morning. I ignored that bit of advice.

[JParm]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/14/beyo...p-retail-.html

Good points on e-commerce, something that has been heavily discussed here. Both AMZN and SE are heavy in my portfolio.

Chart showing e-commerce sales as a percent of total sales since 2014 with projections through 2024.
Each year, e-commerce has steadily grown and become a larger part of overall retail sales. With the pandemic, that upward trajectory has taken a lasting leap forward as customers look for safer ways to shop, said Andrew Lipsman, principal analyst at eMarketer.

[JParm]

https://www.streetinsider.com/Corpor.../17469284.html

HUGE swing down for FSLY here - 30% down due to adjusted guidance. I'm a buyer of this dip; this is where FSLY was a month ago.

[cornerstore]

Fastly craters 23% after hours on downward income projections. I’m sure Motley Fools will try and rationalize it as a positive.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fastl...200500803.html

Last few days of trading up big looks somewhat suspicious.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by cornerstore

Fastly craters 23% after hours on downward income projections. I’m sure Motley Fools will try and rationalize it as a positive.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fastl...200500803.html

Last few days of trading up big looks somewhat suspicious.

Agree with you there - it was running up pretty quickly over the last week or so.

I added more near the 88 level and will continue to ride FSLY through. I think a lot has happened this quarter with TikTok obviously, and do think they are still primed for the future - just have to get past Q3. The acquisition of Signal Sciences is big in my view for the future.

Now with this news, the Q3 earnings call shouldn't cause a larger swing down.

[JWD531]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

https://www.streetinsider.com/Corpor.../17469284.html

HUGE swing down for FSLY here - 30% down due to adjusted guidance. I'm a buyer of this dip; this is where FSLY was a month ago.

I LOVE a good overreaction! I’ll get in on this dip as well. Will nibble here and will nibble a bit more in a few days if still in this area.


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[JParm]

Originally Posted by JWD531

I LOVE a good overreaction! I’ll get in on this dip as well. Will nibble here and will nibble a bit more in a few days if still in this area.


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Yes - completely overblown reaction based on a slight reduction in guidance.

"A 4 million dollar reduction in guidance just cost them $3 Billion in market cap...wild"

[cornerstore]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Agree with you there - it was running up pretty quickly over the last week or so.

I added more near the 88 level and will continue to ride FSLY through. I think a lot has happened this quarter with TikTok obviously, and do think they are still primed for the future - just have to get past Q3. The acquisition of Signal Sciences is big in my view for the future.

Now with this news, the Q3 earnings call shouldn't cause a larger swing down.

That $88 level is an attractive base if it can shake off the guidance issues.

[77T]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Yes - completely overblown reaction based on a slight reduction in guidance.

"A 4 million dollar reduction in guidance just cost them $3 Billion in market cap...wild"

The open-ended statement is what sparked the flight to better choices methinks.

“All previously issued third quarter and full-year guidance that Fastly disclosed in its second quarter shareholder letter and related call on August 5 should not be relied upon.“

Announcing underperformance among its largest key customer segments
is enough to shed speculators at a discount due to their previous expectations.


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[logo]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Well not sure I have any specific advice, just some observations.

If you are looking to protect gains, how much of that gain are you willing to give back before you sell?

If you had stops on back in March and got stopped out, look where you would be now. I usually only put stops on if I believe the downside risk is severe and right now I have no stops on even though I am expecting volatility because I believe we will be higher in 12-18 months.

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

I'll give you my two cents - I'm not a stop-loss setter, and I don't think we'll see that continual 1-2% decrease down, pre or post-earnings in strong, fundamentally sound companies.

Obviously you know I'm a bull, but I'd much rather go for the ride than to sell out prematurely and think "what if". My opinion is that we will be higher in 12-18 months, and the incremental gains from pulling out (with thoughts about taxes) is not enough to pass up on potentially higher longer-term gains.

If it's companies that you aren't 100% sure of, I'd understand that. But for the blue chips / the ones that you are completely sold on, I would personally just stay put. 1 bad earnings call doesn't break the back - I added into PINS right before they got crushed after Q1 (that report and fallout was painful), and have held since - now up over 80% in the stock. Just 1 example, but it was a company that I truly believed in.

Originally Posted by Uggi

I haven't contributed to this thread for ages but I still read it several times a day. Like many, I pumped cash into stocks in March/April and enjoyed a huge bounce but..... I cashed out too many positions to "protect gains" even though I knew, rationally, that the companies I was in were still undervalued and would recover more. I still did nicely but I ended up buying back into those companies at higher prices than my March entry points because you know.....TINA, cash has no value.
jpeezy is right when he says you are better off in the market than out of it (I think Buffet also said "never" when asked what the best time to close a position was).
So logo.... I've been there and I did close positions to protect gains and I'm kicking myself. I've banked some cash, treated myself to a few things which is all hunky dory but it isn't what I should have done. I've worked hard to get back into the market on dips (NET and FSLY have been good for this recently, as has AMZN) and this time I have no stops set and won't look to protect gains by liquidating green positions into cash. I'm still sat on 10% cash which isn't even earning buttons.
Just my tuppence.

Thanks for the replies. I am not normally a stop-loss person, but had it passing through my thoughts today and felt I should see what others are considering.

Though with the AH FSLY news unfortunately affecting my NET position And basically all of cloud, maybe I’ll sell some other stuff to clear way to add on the NET dip.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by 77T

The open-ended statement is what sparked the flight to better choices methinks.

“All previously issued third quarter and full-year guidance that Fastly disclosed in its second quarter shareholder letter and related call on August 5 should not be relied upon.“

Announcing underperformance among its largest key customer segments
is enough to shed speculators at a discount due to their previous expectations.


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Good point there.

While this obviously isn't the best news, I do think it gets rid of a lot of the RH / speculator crowd who got in for the name. Client list hasn't changed as far as we know, still very strong and relied upon by some of the biggest internet names out there so as an investor, just have to look past the short-term burn of TikTok.