Talking Stocks 2.0

[beshannon]

Boeing, Pfizer, Gilead, Covid-19 - 5 Things You Must Know Friday

https://www.thestreet.com/markets/5-...-friday-101620

Some news this morning futures +63, not much moving the markets so far.

[JParm]

Rule of 3 heading into the weekend (yesterday counts as a down day in my book). Do we continue south or turn things around, as has been the case throughout the summer?

Futures look flat, though there are certain tech names that look to bounce. TTD (no position) is one I'm keeping an eye on, as well as DDOG after yesterday.

Cathie and the ARK team bought up a nice chunk of FSLY yesterday (as well as ZM and PLTR), which generally gives retail investors a bullish feeling. As I've stated, I think that 86/87 level is a good base for FSLY.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Rule of 3 heading into the weekend (yesterday counts as a down day in my book). Do we continue south or turn things around, as has been the case throughout the summer?

Futures look flat, though there are certain tech names that look to bounce. TTD (no position) is one I'm keeping an eye on, as well as DDOG after yesterday.

Cathie and the ARK team bought up a nice chunk of FSLY yesterday (as well as ZM and PLTR), which generally gives retail investors a bullish feeling. As I've stated, I think that 86/87 level is a good base for FSLY.

It looks to me like we are at the upper end of the trading range on the S&P so we could see more weakness. I do not see anything that could cause a larger fall absent a black swan event. I believe the markets have begun to digest the news coming in the next three weeks and the reaction may be more muted than expected.

I am looking for opportunities but still holding a larger than normal cash position. If we were to move suddenly higher I would be a seller of some of my trade positions

[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

It looks to me like we are at the upper end of the trading range on the S&P so we could see more weakness. I do not see anything that could cause a larger fall absent a black swan event. I believe the markets have begun to digest the news coming in the next three weeks and the reaction may be more muted than expected.

I am looking for opportunities but still holding a larger than normal cash position. If we were to move suddenly higher I would be a seller of some of my trade positions

Agree there - Not much upside left, but also I don't see a significant (>10%) downfall in play. 3200 on the S&P held nicely.

On a side note, SQ price target upgraded to $240 from $200 from RBC capital.

[JWD531]

Originally Posted by beshannon

It looks to me like we are at the upper end of the trading range on the S&P so we could see more weakness. I do not see anything that could cause a larger fall absent a black swan event. I believe the markets have begun to digest the news coming in the next three weeks and the reaction may be more muted than expected.

I am looking for opportunities but still holding a larger than normal cash position. If we were to move suddenly higher I would be a seller of some of my trade positions

There is decent short term support at around 3440.

It will be interesting to see if it gets rejected at 3528-ish or if it continues back up to 3588-ish.


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[avidflyer]

SLB getting cheap pick up a little for a long term hold?? Missed Fsly at $85 today need to get a order in

[JParm]

Originally Posted by avidflyer

SLB getting cheap pick up a little for a long term hold?? Missed Fsly at $85 today need to get a order in

I'm still not a buyer of oil at this point - does oil even get back to its highs ever again?

FSLY at 85 and change now - guess I was a bit off on 86/87 as a base...

[derekhayden]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

I'm still not a buyer of oil at this point - does oil even get back to its highs ever again?

WTI Crude prices are already inching pretty close to the average price over the years. Sure we saw blips of high $50's low $60's but that is not the norm. The problem with investing in oil companies is most have huge debt leaving them at risk. I hold a couple oil companies but they have no debt and a lot of cash on hand to weather this. We are a long way from not needing oil. Of course take all this with a grain of salt since you see where I am located.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by derekhayden

WTI Crude prices are already inching pretty close to the average price over the years. Sure we saw blips of high $50's low $60's but that is not the norm. The problem with investing in oil companies is most have huge debt leaving them at risk. I hold a couple oil companies but they have no debt and a lot of cash on hand to weather this. We are a long way from not needing oil. Of course take all this with a grain of salt since you see where I am located.

Haha - you're definitely more of an oil expert than me!

I personally just find better places to stick my money...just my own opinion, of course.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

I'm still not a buyer of oil at this point - does oil even get back to its highs ever again?

Originally Posted by derekhayden

WTI Crude prices are already inching pretty close to the average price over the years. Sure we saw blips of high $50's low $60's but that is not the norm. The problem with investing in oil companies is most have huge debt leaving them at risk. I hold a couple oil companies but they have no debt and a lot of cash on hand to weather this. We are a long way from not needing oil. Of course take all this with a grain of salt since you see where I am located.

I have no specific recommendations.

What I do know is that the major oil companies have found ways to survive with oil at these prices. COP, CVX and even XOM can cover their dividends and operations. Will oil recover? Who knows but any trend toward non-oil energy is still a long time away.

[JParm]

https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-v...?mod=hp_LATEST

Good interview here with one of the top tech analysts to close out the week.

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by avidflyer

SLB getting cheap pick up a little for a long term hold?? Missed Fsly at $85 today need to get a order in

Is it possible that oil stocks are going down because the market recognizes that the future is one without fossil fuel? What goes down does not always go up. Sometimes it keeps going down. I have no interest in the oil sector.

[JWD531]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Is it possible that oil stocks are going down because the market recognizes that the future is one without fossil fuel? What goes down does not always go up. Sometimes it keeps going down. I have no interest in the oil sector.

That’s part of it. Some companies have done better than others in pursuing alternative energy sources other than all their eggs in the oil basket. XOM and CVX are more “behind” in some ways than the others, at least from what I’ve read recently. I know many companies “in the traditional energy sector” than have been trying to separate themselves from “oil” for years. It has yet to be successful. But they’re trying (some may be too late, but it is yet to be seen).


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[scarlet knight]

I like NEE for alternative energy. It is a conventional utility with a dollop of alternative energy projects.

[JWD531]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

I like NEE for alternative energy. It is a conventional utility with a dollop of alternative energy projects.

Indeed, great stock/company from what I’ve heard. I have a friend who just left to go work for them. She loves it.


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[chadwick4eva]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I am watching FSLY but I am inclined to agree with this article

https://seekingalpha.com/article/437...r-implications

I am looking at TSM this morning after an earnings beat and a guidance raise

MS beat with a solid increase in revenue. I am staying long MS

How much does the China/Taiwan geopolitical outlook weigh in on your decision regarding TSM? TSM is clearly doing great things- they are producing most of the best personal CPUs in the world at the moment, and the demand is real for their product. The company seems to also be in a strong position financially- they pay a solid dividend and there is definitely significant dividend growth upside in the future. The price at current valuation is also not too absurd given their upside.

After seeing the slow takeover of Hong Kong, and listening to the inflammatory CCP rhetoric regarding Taiwan and how they do not acknowledge them as a nation, one can only assume that Taiwan will indeed become the next Hong Kong, and China will try to lay claim to the nation. Just this weekend I saw an article (I think on WSJ?) about how China is gearing its Navy up more on the side of the country that faces Taiwan (maybe there will be an attempt at a land invasion/forceable takeover?). How long that will take, whether a matter of months or years, is something that I don't think anyone can predict, but it makes me think that there are better places to put my money given the uncertain nature of the situation over there.

[Mifune]

Lots of BIG money and institutionals moving to Bitcoin in mass for holding 'liquidity'... as opposed to cash, bonds or gold.

[slimboy1974]

Anyone been looking/buying alien metals (ufo) what a couple of weeks they’ve had and only looks to heading one way GLA

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by chadwick4eva

How much does the China/Taiwan geopolitical outlook weigh in on your decision regarding TSM? TSM is clearly doing great things- they are producing most of the best personal CPUs in the world at the moment, and the demand is real for their product. The company seems to also be in a strong position financially- they pay a solid dividend and there is definitely significant dividend growth upside in the future. The price at current valuation is also not too absurd given their upside.

After seeing the slow takeover of Hong Kong, and listening to the inflammatory CCP rhetoric regarding Taiwan and how they do not acknowledge them as a nation, one can only assume that Taiwan will indeed become the next Hong Kong, and China will try to lay claim to the nation. Just this weekend I saw an article (I think on WSJ?) about how China is gearing its Navy up more on the side of the country that faces Taiwan (maybe there will be an attempt at a land invasion/forceable takeover?). How long that will take, whether a matter of months or years, is something that I don't think anyone can predict, but it makes me think that there are better places to put my money given the uncertain nature of the situation over there.

I would be far more worried about a slowdown in tech overall affecting semi stocks rather than some possible political scenario.

TSM is the world's first and largest dedicated semiconductor foundry.

The global semiconductor foundry market is projected to grow from around $42 billion in 2019 to over $62 billion in 2025 at a CAGR of 6.75%.

TSM is deeply involved in 5G

I understand your concerns, they do not concern me at all.

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by Mifune

Lots of BIG money and institutionals moving to Bitcoin in mass for holding 'liquidity'... as opposed to cash, bonds or gold.

Really? BTC price has barely moved in months

[beshannon]

AT&T, Netflix, American and Boeing - 5 Things You Must Know Monday

https://www.thestreet.com/markets/5-...-monday-101920

Some big earnings this week, futures up early

I remain concerned about valuation and that this latest move higher may be close to ending

[coucher]

If you think the market values the future, don’t forget what happens anytime quarterly results miss consensus

[JParm]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wh...S%3D1603108212

Growth stocks can continue to rise even in this "bubble" environment, according to TS Lombard.

But Blitz and Cicione said if a bubble was indeed inflating in tech, there was no guarantee Growth’s outperformance would stop now. “Through its aggressive policy choices, the Fed has engineered a rebound in equity prices since March that is giving investors the perception of lack of risk. So why stop betting on a winning horse now, especially if there is no downside,” they said.

Looking forward to earnings over the next few weeks to deploy cash.

[beshannon]

This may already be priced in

FedEx (FDX), United Parcel Service (UPS) – FedEx and UPS have told some of their largest shippers that most of their holiday capacity is already spoken for, according to The Wall Street Journal. The shipping crunch has sent retailers on a difficult search for alternatives, with companies like DHL and LaserShip already seeing holiday shipping availability booked months in advance.

I am long UPS

[beshannon]

Microsoft price target raised at Jefferies ahead of FQ1 earnings, expecting continued Azure strength

https://seekingalpha.com/news/362321...ontinued-azure

I am long MSFT

[JParm]

https://seekingalpha.com/article/437...limited-upside

Bearish outlook here on SE (I'm long) from a Seeking Alpha contributor.

While short-term upside may be limited, this is one stock that I would not count against. E-commerce and gaming leader in Southeast Asia.

[beshannon]

Retirement Strategy: What Does Dividend Growth Investing Actually Mean?

https://seekingalpha.com/article/437...-actually-mean

As I near retirement this article is a nice summation of investing approaches. I use all of them at various times. My focus on dividends is larger as I work to build an income stream for our future.

[trippinjimmy]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Retirement Strategy: What Does Dividend Growth Investing Actually Mean?

https://seekingalpha.com/article/437...-actually-mean

As I near retirement this article is a nice summation of investing approaches. I use all of them at various times. My focus on dividends is larger as I work to build an income stream for our future.

My favorite takeaway from this:

Time in the market is vastly more important than timing the market

[AshCashEmAll]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Retirement Strategy: What Does Dividend Growth Investing Actually Mean?

https://seekingalpha.com/article/437...-actually-mean

As I near retirement this article is a nice summation of investing approaches. I use all of them at various times. My focus on dividends is larger as I work to build an income stream for our future.

Any recommendations on dividend stocks I can buy into? I liked this article thanks for sharing !


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[beshannon]

Originally Posted by AshCashEmAll

Any recommendations on dividend stocks I can buy into? I liked this article thanks for sharing !


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Well that depends on your goals and your outlook towards certain sectors or stocks.

I like Seeking Alpha as they have a lot of dividend investment info

https://seekingalpha.com/

Then you should probably look at what you own and what you have on your research list.

Personally my dividend core holdings are D, ABBV, HD, JPM, WM, INTC, O, SPG, PM, MO as well as an Equity Income mutual fund