Prices slump by up to 50% for discontinued Rolex watches (Watchpro)

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by TunaTuna

Did you buy the dip in stocks last year? It's easy to say that when stocks are at their highs, not so easy to buy when they are making new lows. Kinda like whats happening in watches now, not so easy to buy the dip when it's happening.

The point is that 5.5% risk free is likely what took the wind out of the sails.

Parking extra money in Rolex is fun and made more sense when the risk free yield was 0%. Until the easy money returns I don't think watches will see those highs again.

I have bought several watches "grey" the last 2 months during this dip.

[TunaTuna]

Originally Posted by EEpro

The point is that 5.5% risk free is likely what took the wind out of the sails.

Parking extra money in Rolex is fun and made more sense when the risk free yield was 0%. Until the easy money returns I don't think watches will see those highs again.

I have bought several watches "grey" the last 2 months during this dip.

Nice work. You don't get the warranty with grey market watches, but I'm sure you got great prices so probably doesn't matter

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by TunaTuna

Nice work. You don't get the warranty with grey market watches, but I'm sure you got great prices so probably doesn't matter

I don't think any Rolex are actually grey market. They all have cards white tags papers etc.

[KVNNSCHNG]

Originally Posted by TunaTuna

Nice work. You don't get the warranty with grey market watches, but I'm sure you got great prices so probably doesn't matter

Warranty follows the watch.

[TunaTuna]

Originally Posted by KVNNSCHNG

Warranty follows the watch.

No grey market watches have a warranty. Non of them, never, none

[BogdanS]

Originally Posted by TunaTuna

No grey market watches have a warranty. Non of them, never, none

Huh?


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[Watchman001]

Originally Posted by TunaTuna

No grey market watches have a warranty. Non of them, never, none

Most NIB and pre owned watches for sale on this forum come with warranty card and sellers explicitly state watches are under factory warranty. Not sure what you are talking about.

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by Watchman001

Most NIB and pre owned watches for sale on this forum come with warranty card and sellers explicitly state watches are under factory warranty. Not sure what you are talking about.

He's being pedantic. Grey market vs resale market (AD flip). Most people use them interchangeably but they aren't in fact the same thing.

[WatchEater666]

Originally Posted by TunaTuna

Did you buy the dip in stocks last year? It's easy to say that when stocks are at their highs, not so easy to buy when they are making new lows. Kinda like whats happening in watches now, not so easy to buy the dip when it's happening.

I think they are still fundamentally grossly overpriced.

I say this as a guy that buys distressed consumer companies lol

[DougUSMC]

Originally Posted by EEpro

He's being pedantic. Grey market vs resale market (AD flip). Most people use them interchangeably but they aren't in fact the same thing.

Hey everyone, new member and maybe a weird first post, but...

I'm here reading and trying to learn, but don't understand the inherent differences in your comment?

I'm learning my way around the forum, is there somewhere nubes should do our homework before peppering everyone with annoying questions?

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by DougUSMC

Hey everyone, new member and maybe a weird first post, but...

I'm here reading and trying to learn, but don't understand the inherent differences in your comment?

I'm learning my way around the forum, is there somewhere nubes should do our homework before peppering everyone with annoying questions?

Grey market: not sold through authorized channel. Factory warranty never valid.

(Not really possible with Rolex)

Reseller market: originally purchased from authorized dealer, warranty activated, then sold to a dealer or private party. Warranty follows the watch (in theory).

[Apheaven]

Curious what pricing is for stainless Patek 5164 on Moda and trading groups now that it has been discontinued? I appreciate lower price options might not have papers, etc.


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[Vince_76]

15500st fullset just went for $30.5k at auction (if you even believe that it’s not a shill bid). That’s literally retail price in CA

[psm11]

Vince saw a slider condition 43mm stainless (black/grey dial) ROO for 30k on moda and was up for hours with no takers. These things are tanking


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[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by psm11

Vince saw a slider condition 43mm stainless (black/grey dial) ROO for 30k on moda and was up for hours with no takers. These things are tanking


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Yeah, agreed. Royal Oaks/Offshores are having a more precipitous fall than anything else. Crazy how much jumbos have fallen too.

[WatchEater666]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

15500st fullset just went for $30.5k at auction (if you even believe that it’s not a shill bid). That’s literally retail price in CA

Pretty stoked. I liked my old RO for the $10k - $12k or w/e it was that I paid for it lol.

Would gladly own one for ~$20k again.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by WatchEater666

Pretty stoked. I liked my old RO for the $10k - $12k or w/e it was that I paid for it lol.

Would gladly own one for ~$20k again.

Same. Just tried one of the new ones on at the AP house the other day. Loved it. But not for retail. Def will be my next piece if prices continue this way.


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[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by WatchEater666

Pretty stoked. I liked my old RO for the $10k - $12k or w/e it was that I paid for it lol.

Would gladly own one for ~$20k again.

Originally Posted by psm11

Same. Just tried one of the new ones on at the AP house the other day. Loved it. But not for retail. Def will be my next piece if prices continue this way.


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Agreed. If you’re a true collector you’re loving the trajectory. Past several years have been insanity.

There’s barely any pricing support as is, so pretty clear that there is more room to fall

[Saintos]

Have we hit the bottom yet?

[messikens]

Started looking at 26393s (I.e. the new SS code 11.59s). Even the taupe one is now ok n C24 of all places for $29k, which is $8.5k lower than MSRP BEFORE tax added.

To the floor the go! Hope it's the Mariana Trench

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by messikens

Started looking at 26393s (I.e. the new SS code 11.59s). Even the taupe one is now ok n C24 of all places for $29k, which is $8.5k lower than MSRP BEFORE tax added.

To the floor the go! Hope it's the Mariana Trench

When you can easily get a 15510st in the 30s nobody is paying that for a code chrono. Would be a fun watch around 20k maybe.

[messikens]

Originally Posted by GB-man

When you can easily get a 15510st in the 30s nobody is paying that for a code chrono. Would be a fun watch around 20k maybe.

That's a great point!

I think the reversal of the grey market is going to kill assume of the resale value for less desirable pieces for sure.

My fave example is the 26420s. I love mine but at this point you're "down" $15k if you walk out the door.

Similar to your example, if you can pick up a full bracelet RO with minimal wear for $32k from a secondary dealer, are you really willing to plunk down $30k for a code 11.59? Or are you then waiting until the differential is more attractive, ie the Code Chrono has to be in the low 20s for it to make sense...

[j.mo]

When do we see 116500s in the low 20s.


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[Saintos]

Originally Posted by j.mo

When do we see 116500s in the low 20s.

Not sure if we will ever do that....

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by Saintos

Not sure if we will ever do that....

Agreed. Plenty of people would buy to hold at those prices. Watches aren't supposed to be investments but I'd hold at least 5 instead of gold coins at that price.

[Vince_76]

Mint fullset 15500 bid up to 27k and didn’t even meet reserve. That’s below MSRP+tax - with no pricing support, I think you’ll start seeing these trade below retail very soon.

[Watchguynyc8300]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Mint fullset 15500 bid up to 27k and didn’t even meet reserve. That’s below MSRP+tax - with no pricing support, I think you’ll start seeing these trade below retail very soon.

Let’s hope so! Wonder how 15510 still trades? The list for 155000 was lower I assume than the later one

[SBR]

Originally Posted by EEpro

Agreed. Plenty of people would buy to hold at those prices. Watches aren't supposed to be investments but I'd hold at least 5 instead of gold coins at that price.

I agree, I don't think a NIB 116500 is going down to the low 20s. If a white dial NIB was offered for 25, I would jump on it.

[Saintos]

Originally Posted by SBR

I agree, I don't think a NIB 116500 is going down to the low 20s. If a white dial NIB was offered for 25, I would jump on it.

You can get a mint one for 27-28

[SBR]

Originally Posted by Saintos

You can get a mint one for 27-28

That's good news. Once I am done writing tuition checks for my son, I can focus on that. I am holding out hope that I can get one from my AD but that's probably wishful thinking considering my spend history of only buying a SS Sub and DJ. That said, a NIB white dial 116500 for 25K and I would have to pull the trigger, any more and I am totally OK with waiting.