Talking Stocks 2.0

[JParm]

Small volume today; less than what we saw on Veterans Day, which is surprising.

[JWD531]

Originally Posted by -dustin

Those of y'all contributing to IRAs that are also managing investments on your own, is there overlap in what you're investing in? For example, if your IRA is volatile and aggressive, are you investing in similar stock/ funds on your own or are you playing it more safely?

My Roth is all aggressive growth due to the tax advantages and time horizon. Same with HSA (I pretty much treat that as a Roth but added advantage of pretax dollars - just keep all medical receipts and pay yourself back in the future).

My 401k is probably the least aggressive, due to future taxes and this is where I intend to balance out the large growth in other areas. If it grows less than the Roth, I don’t mind, since it means less taxes down the road.

My taxable account is really all over the place. I have index ETFs, low yield / growth stocks (aside from company stock grants). This allows me to tax harvest as needed down the line. If I swing and miss, this is where I do that. I have three to four ETFs and about 10-15 single stocks on average.

I analyze quarterly regarding rebalancing - that’s when I look at % weighting if there is anything that stands out. But for the most part, I am only in a few funds. However if my mutual fund has 12% weight in AMZN, I’m most likely not going to load up on AMZN in my taxable. The other thing I try to do with single stocks is to not be too exposed to the same sector or industry.

I am aggressive across all accounts now since I’m still in my 30s and not afraid of volatility. So that may/will change down the road.

I also have a separate taxable JUST for swing/day trading. That way I don’t get greedy and sacrifice any long term plans to risk a short term trade. This is independent from any other investments so I don’t have to worry what I trade, since I’m not keeping it long term.

I guess bottom line answer is 1. I am fairly aggressive across the board, but 2. If I am less risky, I’ll put those lower risk options in the 401k.


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[beshannon]

I think the markets are confused, first a vaccine rally, then a rotation back into tech and as happens time and again, everyone is now left standing there staring at each other.

Then the rush to take profits because nothing has fundamentally changed. Combine that with all of the other uncertainty and this is a perfect sell the news event last week, the tech rotation is a non event IMHO.

This is why I sold last week to raise cash and I am standing on the sidelines with my holdings. We will be higher in the future, trading this market today, is very difficult

[JWD531]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I think the markets are confused, first a vaccine rally, then a rotation back into tech and as happens time and again, everyone is now left standing there staring at each other.

Then the rush to take profits because nothing has fundamentally changed. Combine that with all of the other uncertainty and this is a perfect sell the news event last week, the tech rotation is a non event IMHO.

This is why I sold last week to raise cash and I am standing on the sidelines with my holdings. We will be higher in the future, trading this market today, is very difficult

That and any time CNBC posts that “sides are far apart from a stimulus agreement,” we get a .5-1.0% drop which also scares everyone...


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[glenn_herwig]

Very disappointed with PFE CEO. How did he sell a majority of his stock at $41 dollar price. I understand it was pre planned sell. But still something is fishy.

[HippoPAPAmus]

Originally Posted by glenn_herwig

Very disappointed with PFE CEO. How did he sell a majority of his stock at $41 dollar price. I understand it was pre planned sell. But still something is fishy.

While I doubt that it was actually nefarious, it was undeniably stupid from an optics perspective.


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[sokoloka]

Originally Posted by glenn_herwig

Very disappointed with PFE CEO. How did he sell a majority of his stock at $41 dollar price. I understand it was pre planned sell. But still something is fishy.

Wouldn't be surprised if he has another round of restricted shares or options coming through that will vest shortly and bump his holdings back up.

[JParm]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/12/chic...e-to-rise.html

Just a headline here, but again - the rush to value / cyclicals was grossly overdone with the vaccine news.

Let's see how many time we go through this "good vaccine news" cycle and rotation...

[Rolexfanmiami]

Originally Posted by sokoloka

Wouldn't be surprised if he has another round of restricted shares or options coming through that will vest shortly and bump his holdings back up.

Do you think PFE shares may go back to the 40's once the vaccine is fully approved?, I bought like 400 shares when it was at $35. 60 and basically sold 80% at 40.2 , I am thinking about loading again if it goes around $36.5 or so since it has a good dividend and many other drugs on the pipeline, just wanted to get your insight? thanks

[logo]

I’m still learning and practicing technical analysis, and looking for feedback. As examples, looking at TSLA and AAPL, it would appear these seem to be following a symmetrical triangle pattern over the past few months, price point converging and with low volume. My understanding is that at convergence, usually we breakout or breakdown, and in the next 3 months I don’t see much that will allow for a breakout, barring a few unlikelihoods. Thoughts, criticisms and suggestions welcome. Thanks!

[Duey]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I think the markets are confused, first a vaccine rally, then a rotation back into tech and as happens time and again, everyone is now left standing there staring at each other.

Then the rush to take profits because nothing has fundamentally changed. Combine that with all of the other uncertainty and this is a perfect sell the news event last week, the tech rotation is a non event IMHO.

This is why I sold last week to raise cash and I am standing on the sidelines with my holdings. We will be higher in the future, trading this market today, is very difficult

Well SAID !!

I was finally able to get out of big pile HA stock I picked up along the way .

it's like the market just wants out of Tech so badly that it doesn't know what to do but in the end it comes back to it. It looks like back in 2000 with the death of the DotCom's and the FOMO mentality.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by glenn_herwig

Very disappointed with PFE CEO. How did he sell a majority of his stock at $41 dollar price. I understand it was pre planned sell. But still something is fishy.

It was a pre-planned sale back from August with a price target trigger. IE once the stock reached XYZ price it was already triggered and sold. SEC highly regulates insider trading, there is nothing fishy going on here. He sold roughly $5M worth of shares, which is a drop in the bucket for him, he has been there for many years. He sold roughly 150,000 shares with a stock that has a 5.5B share float. It does not impact the shareholders in the slightest bit or move the price of PFE.

Optically it is a PR nightmare.

[chadwick4eva]

Help me out guys- I'm getting huge FOMO looking at the three Chinese EV companies that are currently in growth stage: NIO, XPENG, and LI motors....I need to be talked out of going in on this one I feel like because there are virtually no fundamentals to back these already hugely overvalued companies. Within the past week NIO has surpassed the market cap of GM, and XPENG picked up $10B in market cap today alone.

I'm normally not a momentum trader but with successs of tesla shares over the years and an exploding middle class in China I feel like these companies can't fail going forward...

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by chadwick4eva

I feel like these companies can't fail going forward...

How much of your capital are you willing to risk on this statement?

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by logo

I’m still learning and practicing technical analysis, and looking for feedback. As examples, looking at TSLA and AAPL, it would appear these seem to be following a symmetrical triangle pattern over the past few months, price point converging and with low volume. My understanding is that at convergence, usually we breakout or breakdown, and in the next 3 months I don’t see much that will allow for a breakout, barring a few unlikelihoods. Thoughts, criticisms and suggestions welcome. Thanks!

I have not done the analysis you have.

I would say that doing this kind of work is better on a stock like AAPL rather than TSLA

[-dustin]

Originally Posted by chadwick4eva

Help me out guys- I'm getting huge FOMO looking at the three Chinese EV companies that are currently in growth stage: NIO, XPENG, and LI motors....I need to be talked out of going in on this one I feel like because there are virtually no fundamentals to back these already hugely overvalued companies. Within the past week NIO has surpassed the market cap of GM, and XPENG picked up $10B in market cap today alone.

I'm normally not a momentum trader but with successs of tesla shares over the years and an exploding middle class in China I feel like these companies can't fail going forward...

I got into NIO at $19 and have added multiple times since. I was ready to sell it all if it hit $50 today. Fairly certain I'm going to short 75% of it before earnings come out Tuesday. It's just too much. And today's run-up really just kind of made me feel a bit more uncomfortable.

[cornerstore]

US bans US investments that would aid China's military. News just out. Be interesting to see how it plays out as a few are publicly traded in US.

[bimmer nerd]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I think the markets are confused, first a vaccine rally, then a rotation back into tech and as happens time and again, everyone is now left standing there staring at each other.

Then the rush to take profits because nothing has fundamentally changed. Combine that with all of the other uncertainty and this is a perfect sell the news event last week, the tech rotation is a non event IMHO.

This is why I sold last week to raise cash and I am standing on the sidelines with my holdings. We will be higher in the future, trading this market today, is very difficult

I agree with you 100%. I think the rotation from Tech to Cyclical was an over reaction. The 10% run up in one week on S&P 500 isn't normal, nor sustainable.

With that being said, I purchased some SPY 330 and AMX 107 puts to hedge. I think there is more bleeding to come and nothing has changed fundamentally.

[beshannon]

A bit of a lift for risk-on this morning, S&P futures up 30

Looks like the see-saw of value vs. tech is evening itself out with traders getting settled with their allocations.

Behind the scenes of the news cycle, Wall Street is talking inflation, multiple expansion and recovery.

I believe that will happen but it is too soon, I remain on the sidelines unless I have new profit taking opportunities

[jaisonline]

For those with DKNG who want to listen in.

Main investor page =
https://draftkings.gcs-web.com/news-...-presentations

November 13, 2020 at 8:30 AM EST
https://draftkings.gcs-web.com/event...-earnings-call


Q4 Audio link =
https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/bx6w5x6v

[JParm]

Futures looking good to end this week.

Off to Aruba for a bit, so will revisit with you gentlemen on Tuesday. Let's see a strong end / good open next week!

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Futures looking good to end this week.

Off to Aruba for a bit, so will revisit with you gentlemen on Tuesday. Let's see a strong end / good open next week!

Have a great trip Jessie. Have always wanted to visit Aruba. Will you be checking in with the AD there? I wonder if stock is better on the islands since people less are visiting.


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[trippinjimmy]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Futures looking good to end this week.

Off to Aruba for a bit, so will revisit with you gentlemen on Tuesday. Let's see a strong end / good open next week!

That's awesome! Have a great trip!

[m j b]

HRTX up 5% pre-market on re-submission of application to FDA.

[beshannon]

Markets up nicely, standing pat here, too pricey to buy and not up enough for more profit taking for me.

[-dustin]

Originally Posted by chadwick4eva

Help me out guys- I'm getting huge FOMO looking at the three Chinese EV companies that are currently in growth stage: NIO, XPENG, and LI motors....I need to be talked out of going in on this one I feel like because there are virtually no fundamentals to back these already hugely overvalued companies. Within the past week NIO has surpassed the market cap of GM, and XPENG picked up $10B in market cap today alone.

I'm normally not a momentum trader but with successs of tesla shares over the years and an exploding middle class in China I feel like these companies can't fail going forward...

Big dips today for XPEV and NIO if you want to gamble. NIO's dip is being attributed to https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nio-s...165144053.html but LI, XPEV, and NIO all have similar movements today. I think it was more of a sell off following massive run-up than reaction to that tweet. But who knows. After-hours movement should be telling.

[7sins]

MRNA up another 2% today and over 11% since I mentioned it here on Wed. Next week is going to make it or break it for them when they report their efficacy rating, which based on everything I have been reading should be at the PFE 90% level or higher (supposedly rolling trials in UK have been 95%). This will also prove their platform for their customized cancer cure that this week also showed positive results https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/...linical-trial/. If the news is good next week, this will go through the roof, really is incredible what they are doing.

Moderna will likely sell 800 million doses in 2021 and 1 billion doses in 2022 at an average cost of $20 per dose. The revenue for 2021 is $16 billion and for 2022 is $20 billion. Assuming an operating margin of 20%, Moderna's operating profits would be $3.2 billion for 2021 and $4 billion for $2022. Considering an effective tax rate of about 17% and 21% respectively in 2021 and 2022 and a share count of 389 million and 400 million over the two years, the EPS contribution of the Covid-19 vaccine would stand at $6.80 in 2021 and $7.90 in 2022. Based on these numbers ONLY from mRNA-1273 and not even considering the value of the rest of the pipeline:

At 30 times earnings, that puts MRNA at a projected share price of $205 for 2021 and $237 for 2022 with just the aforementioned sales and OM is usually MUCH MUCH higher than 20% on drugs.

Currently at $90 and that does not take into account how amazing the rest of their pipeline is. Specifically have customized cancer cures via their mRNA platform. This should be an absolute home run.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by m j b

HRTX up 5% pre-market on re-submission of application to FDA.

up 8%

[HippoPAPAmus]

Originally Posted by 7sins

MRNA up another 2% today and over 11% since I mentioned it here on Wed. Next week is going to make it or break it for them when they report their efficacy rating, which based on everything I have been reading should be at the PFE 90% level or higher (supposedly rolling trials in UK have been 95%). This will also prove their platform for their customized cancer cure that this week also showed positive results https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/...linical-trial/. If the news is good next week, this will go through the roof, really is incredible what they are doing.

Moderna will likely sell 800 million doses in 2021 and 1 billion doses in 2022 at an average cost of $20 per dose. The revenue for 2021 is $16 billion and for 2022 is $20 billion. Assuming an operating margin of 20%, Moderna's operating profits would be $3.2 billion for 2021 and $4 billion for $2022. Considering an effective tax rate of about 17% and 21% respectively in 2021 and 2022 and a share count of 389 million and 400 million over the two years, the EPS contribution of the Covid-19 vaccine would stand at $6.80 in 2021 and $7.90 in 2022. Based on these numbers ONLY from mRNA-1273 and not even considering the value of the rest of the pipeline:

At 30 times earnings, that puts MRNA at a projected share price of $205 for 2021 and $237 for 2022 with just the aforementioned sales and OM is usually MUCH MUCH higher than 20% on drugs.

Currently at $90 and that does not take into account how amazing the rest of their pipeline is. Specifically have customized cancer cures via their mRNA platform. This should be an absolute home run.

From your lips to God’s ears.


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[macuser553]

My theory on Pfizer is that the CEO knew in August that his vaccine likely worked, but that the competitors had more commercially-viable platforms. He likely had pre-determined the release date of the study findings, as what was released was done on a somewhat arbitrary date - before the study was even finished. The competing vaccines do not need as much refrigeration, so they are likely to be more commercially successful. Thus, the CEO planned to release good news and dump his stock. The Pfizer vaccine probably works, but it might not have been the potential commercial blockbuster that they had wanted.