Talking Stocks 2.0

[7sins]

Originally Posted by chadwick4eva

Big box retailers were something that I thought could get swallowed whole by ecommerce- but I think that both of these companies have adapted very well to needed changes. I bought both off of their recent bounces- both instances were an overreaction to fine earnings imo. I think there's a world where both Lowe's and Home Depot can succeed, while others may believe there can only be one winner. One thing is certain- Home Depot may have more brand recognition because they've been around longer, but Lowe's has the higher growth potential. The fact that each store is essentially a warehouse and a retail store- with delivery and pickup services available online means they really cover the full spectrum of retail services that people want. One could argue that their overhead is far greater because of the in-person stores and having to staff that operation, but I think the companies know how to manage staffing really well and they choose locations with low tax footprints.

Other news like this makes me think best buy is very safe for the long term-->

https://www.pcgamer.com/news/live/wh...graphics-card/

Nvidia tried to do DTC for the release of their new 3000 series, but their website had a huge meltdown from the demand and the whole thing was a PR fiasco. People like to call these releases "paper releases" because the product sells out instantly and there aren't nearly enough to keep up with demand. Nvidia, recognizing maybe they aren't so great at the whole ecommerce DTC model, have deferred the responsibility and recognized that best buy has the best infrastructure to handle sales of their product (at least here in the US), both online and in person. Polling of US and Canada retailers has hinted that 3060ti is expected to sell out opening day when it hits shelves, even though it sounds like they're doing a much better job stocking this time. I still have not been able to get a 3080 or 3090 at retail... Harder than SS Daytona I guess...

The other thing that helps me sleep at night is that Bill Ackman, who manages the multi billion dollar Berkshire-Hathaway-esque Pershing Square Holdings, is long on Lowe's- his firm owns a 2 billion dollar stake in the company and it's their largest holding. I do like Mr. Ackman, although he's a somewhat controversial figure whose made bold bets against Herbalife and had some friction with Carl Icahn in the past- his core principles of long term investing are sound and I think he makes the right calls more than he makes the wrong ones- otherwise he probably would not be in the business that he's in!

This website I found recently is a great resource that shows portfolio allocations and recent portfolio changes made by some of the biggest funds in the world- including the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Howard Marks' Oaktree Capital equities fund, Mr. Ackman's Pershing Square Holdings, and others. Nice to see some meta analysis and top down data of where "smart money," or maybe really just "big money," puts bets on. To my surprise, many of these funds don't have a single stake in many companies of the S&P 500- this really pushes me to avoid index funds and do my own research instead.

https://www.dataroma.com/m/home.php

Thanks for the response and agree on all accounts, I spoke with a few of the employees at our local best buy in LA, they said instore sales were lower than normal but online orders were the highest they have ever had for black friday and cyber monday. Which makes sense given that a lot of peoples non-essential discretionary spending is being re-allocated to purchases for items Best Buy offers.

100% agree on Ackman, PSTH is rumored to be merging with Stripe which would be HUGE. I would love to get into Nvidia on a pullback too.

Sounds like you have been trading for awhile, I HIGHLY encourage you to checkout flowalgo.com, this shows all the large options trading that big institutions, hedge funds etc trade to find opportunities and where big money is flowing before anyone else. Most of those large institutions go through dark pools to hide their trading, flowalgo tracks all of the black pools and sweep trades that fly under the normal radar.

[logo]

https://www.barrons.com/amp/articles...er-51607126763

Interesting article on the Salesforce-Slack deal. To me, the standout question is how Salesforce plans to scale uptake of Slack - that is the huge question looming on how to interpret this deal.

Salesforce has a large customer base of high paying customers (Fortune 500) given they are by far the leader in their space, but fewer small businesses, perhaps related to pricing. Conversely, Slack has a large base of free users (small business), with less than 1000 enterprise customers. So the two don’t perfectly align. On the other hand, Microsoft is ubiquitous among small and large businesses, and their office 365 suite comes with Teams for free. Teams has vastly outpaced Slack uptake this year in % gain, and not surprisingly total number of users greatly eclipses Slack. Teams integrates with other Microsoft cloud/office products, while Slack seems to integrate better with 3rd party apps. So if I’m a business owner, who has office 365 (and most do), why would I pay extra to have Slack if I get Teams for free? It would need to offer either superior security, superior reliability and performance or offer functionality that is compellingly different enough from Teams. I’d imagine most big businesses are looking to declutter the amount of software they use, so I’m not convinced 3rd party integration is the leap in functionality needed to sway a buyer. Similarly, if I’m a big business who uses CRM, why would I pay extra for my sales/marketing team to use Slack when the rest of the business probably uses Teams? So to me, there is a real possibility the deal for 28B eats into CRMs bottom line without much revenue generating prospect. Unless CRM plans to just bundle slack “for free” with their existing product and simply raise overall pricing?

I’d be curious to hear anyone else’s thoughts on the deal and how it affects CRM going forward short-mid term. I’ve contemplated buying CRM due to their dip and long term I imagine this deal is insignificant, but for a short term trade I’m not yet convinced and might wait until after CRMs investor day this week to see what they say.

[jaisonline]

I'm doing some research on BB (BlackBerry) and found this interesting 9/24 article by a Neil George.


“BlackBerry Redux
September 24, 2020

When you left the office back in the ‘80s and ‘90s, you were at risk.

You had primitive mobile devices and no way to check email or text. I remember going through a litany of devices, and they each kind of worked, but nothing like BlackBerry (BB).

I became plugged in from Central China to Russia to Latin America. Even at sea, my BlackBerry always worked.

Today, BlackBerry doesn’t make a single phone. Instead, it provides the software and security for communications of voice and data for industries ranging from cloud computing companies, such as Amazon’s Web Services and Microsoft’s Azure, to power-grid operators and power-generation companies, robotic operations of manufacturers and 90%+ of automakers.

For the first quarter of 2020 alone, according to analysis by Momentum Cyber and Arkos Labs (private), there were on average 55 cyber attacks every second of every day, 24/7. And that’s only what was tracked. Your devices—all devices—are at risk.

BlackBerry, through its own inventions and acquisitions, including Cylance last year, has built up a collection of nearly 30,000 patents, with over 1,000 more in application and more to follow. At its core, it provides secure connections that are used by 77% of the Fortune 100 companies to make everything work while staying locked down.

And of course, the rapidly advancing 5G communications and autonomous vehicles markets are increasingly dependent on the products and services of BlackBerry. For 5G, data communications in larger amounts at faster speeds with lower latency means that thieves have more to steal. And for systems to work quicker and better, they need to be secure.

The automotive sector is where BlackBerry has a long history. Its QNX software platform is embedded in the vast majority of modern cars, running everything from infotainment systems to advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS). That’s the safety stuff that makes semi-autonomous cars safer.

But to make autonomous cars work, they need to constantly communicate with each other in real time to avoid accidents. BlackBerry’s embedded systems and software and security really doesn’t have a peer for the autonomous car communications market.

Great Stuff, Bad Name

BlackBerry isn’t fully appreciated for what it is today. Its licensing agreement with TCL (TCLHF) to allow it to make BlackBerry phones with security from the company on the Android platform has kept its image in retro mode.



BlackBerry Stock Price—Source: Bloomberg Finance, L.P.

BlackBerry is trading under $5.00 a share, which values all of the patents, products, services as well as all of the huge clients around the globe at peanuts. The price to intrinsic (book) value is only 1.38 times, which is a tiny fraction of most companies in this high-tech stratosphere. And it is only valued at 2.6 times its trailing sales, which are up by 15% over the past year.

The company has lots of cash, and debt is very low at only 19.5% of assets. But it needs some management improvements to shore up profits along with growth in its assets and revenues. It looks like a high-tech flier but without the stock market fanboys.

I’ve been following it for a long time and see it as an ideal takeover candidate; to be taken private by private equity or a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC). And with its cheap valuation and low stock price, it should be a target with the slew of new day traders.

This isn’t the type of stock I typically recommend. But I see so much value in its assets, its book of business and its prospects with security and systems for so many important developments, including 5G and autonomous and other higher-tech vehicles, that I am now on board.”

[jaisonline]

Chadwick4ever & 7sins,

Great shared info and links. Thank you.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

I'm doing some research on BB (BlackBerry) and found this interesting 9/24 article by a Neil George.


“BlackBerry Redux
September 24, 2020

When you left the office back in the ‘80s and ‘90s, you were at risk.

You had primitive mobile devices and no way to check email or text. I remember going through a litany of devices, and they each kind of worked, but nothing like BlackBerry (BB).

I became plugged in from Central China to Russia to Latin America. Even at sea, my BlackBerry always worked.

Today, BlackBerry doesn’t make a single phone. Instead, it provides the software and security for communications of voice and data for industries ranging from cloud computing companies, such as Amazon’s Web Services and Microsoft’s Azure, to power-grid operators and power-generation companies, robotic operations of manufacturers and 90%+ of automakers.

For the first quarter of 2020 alone, according to analysis by Momentum Cyber and Arkos Labs (private), there were on average 55 cyber attacks every second of every day, 24/7. And that’s only what was tracked. Your devices—all devices—are at risk.

BlackBerry, through its own inventions and acquisitions, including Cylance last year, has built up a collection of nearly 30,000 patents, with over 1,000 more in application and more to follow. At its core, it provides secure connections that are used by 77% of the Fortune 100 companies to make everything work while staying locked down.

And of course, the rapidly advancing 5G communications and autonomous vehicles markets are increasingly dependent on the products and services of BlackBerry. For 5G, data communications in larger amounts at faster speeds with lower latency means that thieves have more to steal. And for systems to work quicker and better, they need to be secure.

The automotive sector is where BlackBerry has a long history. Its QNX software platform is embedded in the vast majority of modern cars, running everything from infotainment systems to advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS). That’s the safety stuff that makes semi-autonomous cars safer.

But to make autonomous cars work, they need to constantly communicate with each other in real time to avoid accidents. BlackBerry’s embedded systems and software and security really doesn’t have a peer for the autonomous car communications market.

Great Stuff, Bad Name

BlackBerry isn’t fully appreciated for what it is today. Its licensing agreement with TCL (TCLHF) to allow it to make BlackBerry phones with security from the company on the Android platform has kept its image in retro mode.



BlackBerry Stock Price—Source: Bloomberg Finance, L.P.

BlackBerry is trading under $5.00 a share, which values all of the patents, products, services as well as all of the huge clients around the globe at peanuts. The price to intrinsic (book) value is only 1.38 times, which is a tiny fraction of most companies in this high-tech stratosphere. And it is only valued at 2.6 times its trailing sales, which are up by 15% over the past year.

The company has lots of cash, and debt is very low at only 19.5% of assets. But it needs some management improvements to shore up profits along with growth in its assets and revenues. It looks like a high-tech flier but without the stock market fanboys.

I’ve been following it for a long time and see it as an ideal takeover candidate; to be taken private by private equity or a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC). And with its cheap valuation and low stock price, it should be a target with the slew of new day traders.

This isn’t the type of stock I typically recommend. But I see so much value in its assets, its book of business and its prospects with security and systems for so many important developments, including 5G and autonomous and other higher-tech vehicles, that I am now on board.”

they announced a partnership with amazon to create a platform that collects and analyzes data from vehicle sensors this past week so stock went up a bit. i was actually reading about them the past few days and i think i'll get in on monday

[vipereaper30]

BCRX is back at it this weekend with positive news in their oral Factor D inhibitor: https://ir.biocryst.com/news-release...gh-potency-and

"Discovered by BioCryst, BCX9930 is a novel, oral, potent and selective small molecule inhibitor of Factor D currently in Phase 1 clinical development for the treatment of complement-mediated diseases. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has granted both Fast Track status and Orphan Drug designation for BCX9930 in PNH. In an ongoing dose ranging trial of BCX9930 in patients with PNH, BCX9930 was safe and well tolerated, with no drug-related serious adverse events. As a Factor D inhibitor, BCX9930 is designed as an oral monotherapy that can address both intravascular and extravascular hemolysis in PNH patients. Treatment-naïve PNH patients who have received more than six weeks of therapy at a monotherapy dose of 400 mg bid showed rapid and dose-dependent reductions in key biomarkers, including LDH, and increases in hemoglobin levels that were maintained without transfusions."

Based on the approval last week of Orladeyo sales should start rolling in quickly (this is will be a key metric to watch pending further drug candidate progress). With a conservative estimate of 750M in peak sales and current market cap at 1B I see that as a 5 bagger with no further progress in their pipeline. With continued progress in other drug candidates (BCRX9930, BCRX9250, Galidesivir) I expect double that in the next 3-5 years. Already at 10% of my portfolio but damn do I want to buy more!

Short interest and institutional ownership have been high. With any chance to add on weakness I'll be breaking my own rules on position size.

[7sins]

Happy Sunday everyone! I've been trading options now for over 12 years and i've come across one of the best opportunities I have ever seen.

I noted in a previous post that SNOW has been skyrocketing, now $390 with a market cap of $109B - which is LARGER than IBM. For a company with $100M in revenue, this is absolutely absurd. This is 175X 2021 revenue, which makes it the most expensive SaaS company. For again, a company with $100m in revenue and fierce competition. So why did the shares spike? There are only 25m shares for the float and 20% short interest, this caused a massive short squeeze and the price to skyrock.

MOST IMPORTANT, here is the catalyst. The employee lockup expires on Dec 14th or 16th, and 11M shares are going to be free to be sold by employees of Snowflake. If the stock price stays above 159.60 10 days after that between December 15th/17th - December 29th/January 2nd, 37.5M shares from non-employed stock holders who bought the ipo are free to sell. So potential 48.5M free float increase if everyone unloads, which is almost 2x the existing float. The second lockup ends in March where the remaining 75% will be available to be sold. This is going to FLOOD the market with new shares and push the stock down to at least a normal valuation.

That is going to create a ton of selling pressure, now is the time to buy puts. Puts in Jan if you want to be aggressive or May so you can have the full unlock that takes place in March. This at the very least should move back to $250, roughly $130 move down, which should be a 2-300% return depending on your strike expiration. Also with the market at an all time high, this adds in a nice hedge, if we see vol, often stocks that have skyrocketed sell off the most due to profit takers.

[logo]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Happy Sunday everyone! I've been trading options now for over 12 years and i've come across one of the best opportunities I have ever seen.

I noted in a previous post that SNOW has been skyrocketing, now $390 with a market cap of $109B - which is LARGER than IBM. For a company with $100M in revenue, this is absolutely absurd. This is 175X 2021 revenue, which makes it the most expensive SaaS company. For again, a company with $100m in revenue and fierce competition. So why did the shares spike? There are only 25m shares for the float and 20% short interest, this caused a massive short squeeze and the price to skyrock.

MOST IMPORTANT, here is the catalyst. The employee lockup expires on Dec 14th or 16th, and 11M shares are going to be free to be sold by employees of Snowflake. If the stock price stays above 159.60 10 days after that between December 15th/17th - December 29th/January 2nd, 37.5M shares from non-employed stock holders who bought the ipo are free to sell. So potential 48.5M free float increase if everyone unloads, which is almost 2x the existing float. The second lockup ends in March where the remaining 75% will be available to be sold. This is going to FLOOD the market with new shares and push the stock down to at least a normal valuation.

That is going to create a ton of selling pressure, now is the time to buy puts. Puts in Jan if you want to be aggressive or May so you can have the full unlock that takes place in March. This at the very least should move back to $250, roughly $130 move down, which should be a 2-300% return depending on your strike expiration. Also with the market at an all time high, this adds in a nice hedge, if we see vol, often stocks that have skyrocketed sell off the most due to profit takers.

Thanks for posting. I’ve thought about this as well; however, wasn’t there some huge call buying last week? Like institutional level call buying? Makes me a bit wary if big money is betting on calls. Thoughts?

[7sins]

Originally Posted by logo

Thanks for posting. I’ve thought about this as well; however, wasn’t there some huge call buying last week? Like institutional level call buying? Makes me a bit wary if big money is betting on calls. Thoughts?

Below is the option trade flow for SNOW over the last two weeks, filtered for any trades above $500k. Nothing too significant besides the 1.77M call order end of Friday. Most importantly, look at all of the expirations on these orders, several of them are right before the lockup expires on the 14th and ALL of them are before the March lockup expiration. Also, look at that strike price for the orders, the majority of them are ITM or ATM, you aren't seeing aggressive OTM buying.

With the float being so small and the short interest rising, it is possible this continues to move to the upside and there will be volatility. Over the next few weeks I suspect it settles below $300 when lockups expire. With the markets at all time highs, I think it is an ideal time to put a hedge on if we see a pull back (especially if the stimulus continues to be postponed). I find it much harder to find short/put positions than longs but this one has some merit.

As a side note, SNOW CEO is making $95M/mo with current comp plan, I can't fathom how that is even possible.

[GB-man]

You make an interesting case. I’ll take a look tomorrow. Admittedly I have a lot of research to do as my knowledge of cloud is minimal.

[scarlet knight]

Airbnb goes public this week, expected to happen Thursday, I believe.

[bimmer nerd]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Happy Sunday everyone! I've been trading options now for over 12 years and i've come across one of the best opportunities I have ever seen.

I noted in a previous post that SNOW has been skyrocketing, now $390 with a market cap of $109B - which is LARGER than IBM. For a company with $100M in revenue, this is absolutely absurd. This is 175X 2021 revenue, which makes it the most expensive SaaS company. For again, a company with $100m in revenue and fierce competition. So why did the shares spike? There are only 25m shares for the float and 20% short interest, this caused a massive short squeeze and the price to skyrock.

MOST IMPORTANT, here is the catalyst. The employee lockup expires on Dec 14th or 16th, and 11M shares are going to be free to be sold by employees of Snowflake. If the stock price stays above 159.60 10 days after that between December 15th/17th - December 29th/January 2nd, 37.5M shares from non-employed stock holders who bought the ipo are free to sell. So potential 48.5M free float increase if everyone unloads, which is almost 2x the existing float. The second lockup ends in March where the remaining 75% will be available to be sold. This is going to FLOOD the market with new shares and push the stock down to at least a normal valuation.

That is going to create a ton of selling pressure, now is the time to buy puts. Puts in Jan if you want to be aggressive or May so you can have the full unlock that takes place in March. This at the very least should move back to $250, roughly $130 move down, which should be a 2-300% return depending on your strike expiration. Also with the market at an all time high, this adds in a nice hedge, if we see vol, often stocks that have skyrocketed sell off the most due to profit takers.

How much are you putting in?

[jaisonline]

I don’t own KODK but do follow it.

It jumped this morning.

“Watchdog for U.S. Agency That Brokered Controversial Kodak Loan Deal Finds No Wrongdoing”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/watchdo...ng-11607270895

A government watchdog agency found no wrongdoing in the process that created a now-halted U.S. loan to Eastman Kodak Co. KODK 4.15% to produce drug ingredients for the Covid-19 response, according to a copy of the assessment reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.

The inspector general of the agency that brokered the deal, the U.S. International Development Finance Corp., provided his assessment last week to Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.), who had called for the investigation after the one-time photo giant landed a potential $765 million government loan in July.

[austinp]

I went back to the the beginning of this thread over the weekend. It started near the end of February. It was interesting reading the predictions at the beginning of the Covid outbreak. There were a few that advised to stay the course and not panic with your investments. It’s turned out to be a fantastic year in the markets.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[JParm]

Originally Posted by austinp

I went back to the the beginning of this thread over the weekend. It started near the end of February. It was interesting reading the predictions at the beginning of the Covid outbreak. There were a few that advised to stay the course and not panic with your investments. It’s turned out to be a fantastic year in the markets.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I was not a part of this thread back then but I think that has been sage advice since the stock market was born.

It can be a different story if you're nearing the end of your investment lifecycle, but for everyone else, holding strong and not panic-selling is the best way to see things through.

Now there's obviously a difference between that and not selling your losers, but if a company's outlook has not fundamentally changed during a time like this, then I think it's absolutely the right decision to get rid of emotions and stand pat with your initial investment in a stock.

[Redx22]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Sounds like you have been trading for awhile, I HIGHLY encourage you to checkout flowalgo.com, this shows all the large options trading that big institutions, hedge funds etc trade to find opportunities and where big money is flowing before anyone else. Most of those large institutions go through dark pools to hide their trading, flowalgo tracks all of the black pools and sweep trades that fly under the normal radar.

Do you have a subscription to this? seems a bit gimmicky to be honest. Do you find this info valuable? What if a put up a block with delayed reporting to the TRF? Just curious, how quickly do the alerts pop up after the print goes off?

[chadwick4eva]

Best buy down 3% today- adding a little to my position.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/c...st-buy/revenue

Williams Sonoma stock is also down a little- adding a little there as well.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/c...sonoma/revenue
WSM has been able to demonstrate excellent revenue growth and corresponding earnings growth as well over the past few years. Solid dividend growth as well. They have great online platforms for their businesses and strong consumer sentiment among millenials with brands like pottery barn and west elm- this makes me think they will do great for years to come. Like Lowe's, BBY and WSM are both high return on equity businesses- something I like to see.

Entered CRM today as well- fantastic business with rock solid revenue and earnings growth in their history. I think the slack acquisition was fantastic. Slack and discord (slack for gamers) are both best in class products- slack was clearly having some troubles making the business profitable. With a seasoned software sales and operations management team at CRM I think they will be able to turn slack into a cash cow. CRM, like AMD (Xilinx acquistion), have both made big moves that will give them extra scale for years to come.

If CRM manages to grow EPS at the current QoQ rate- they could actually be extremely undervalued at the moment.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/c...,-inc/pe-ratio

[AshCashEmAll]

LAZR has been up over 80% in the last week. You guys should take a look and see what you think.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[logo]

Originally Posted by chadwick4eva

Best buy down 3% today- adding a little to my position.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/c...st-buy/revenue

Williams Sonoma stock is also down a little- adding a little there as well.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/c...sonoma/revenue
WSM has been able to demonstrate excellent revenue growth and corresponding earnings growth as well over the past few years. Solid dividend growth as well. They have great online platforms for their businesses and strong consumer sentiment among millenials with brands like pottery barn and west elm- this makes me think they will do great for years to come. Like Lowe's, BBY and WSM are both high return on equity businesses- something I like to see.

Entered CRM today as well- fantastic business with rock solid revenue and earnings growth in their history. I think the slack acquisition was fantastic. Slack and discord (slack for gamers) are both best in class products- slack was clearly having some troubles making the business profitable. With a seasoned software sales and operations management team at CRM I think they will be able to turn slack into a cash cow. CRM, like AMD (Xilinx acquistion), have both made big moves that will give them extra scale for years to come.

If CRM manages to grow EPS at the current QoQ rate- they could actually be extremely undervalued at the moment.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/c...,-inc/pe-ratio

Agree they might be undervalued if the above continues; however, I think it’s totally dependent on how slack performs. They are paying 27B in cash for slack, which is >10% of CRMs market cap. However, Slack only brings in 2.5% of the revenue between slack/CRM combined. Not to mention CRM only has 9B cash, so the deal affects the balance sheet liabilities for sure. I’m just not yet convinced that slack can be scaled for greater profitability against Microsoft Teams, when the majority of Slack users currently use it for free, and Microsoft Teams is given free with Office 365. In any case, I’m waiting until CRMs presentation tomorrow to see what they say before adding.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by Redx22

Do you have a subscription to this? seems a bit gimmicky to be honest. Do you find this info valuable? What if a put up a block with delayed reporting to the TRF? Just curious, how quickly do the alerts pop up after the print goes off?

Depends how often you trade and if you utilize options. The alerts are immediate once the trade is placed, you want to look at unusual activity where all of a sudden heavy volume is being placed, usually in smaller sweeps. That then allows me to do more research into the stock and make a decision. Also helpful with the dark pools aforementioned. I work in finance and spend a ton of time in the option market, so for me it makes sense and other sophisticated investors. If you are a long term buy and hold investor who does little trading, probably not worth the subscription fee.

Originally Posted by bimmer nerd

How much are you putting in?

Dollar amount is rather irrelevant as compared to the % of your portfolio, IE if I said I put in 100k that would be deminimis if my portfolio was $100m but significant if it was $1m.

I staggered my puts evenly with price sensitivity, enough OI and small bid/ask spread in mind:

Feb 19th $300p strike
May 21st $250p strike

That way if it sees short term vol I will profit and if it takes a bit longer for my theory to materialize, I still have my May puts.

If we see a 10-15% leg down, I will probably close out of both positions. Not sure we will see that kind of vol until the first lockup period expires next week.

[huncho]

bought some leaps for blackberry today, might add a bit more later if it drops more. nice day for palantir but otherwise pretty boring day

[jaisonline]

Originally Posted by huncho

bought some leaps for blackberry today, might add a bit more later if it drops more. nice day for palantir but otherwise pretty boring day

I went long on BB & Paysafe . Small starter positions to which I usually add more over time. Same I did with PLTR after the IPO.
It was fun watching PLTR. Still rising in after hours after 2 dips.

[jaisonline]

Interesting article.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/07/inves...soc/index.html

Current Administration's regulators leave a warning for the Biden team
By Matt Egan, CNN Business
Updated 8:03 AM ET, Mon December 7, 2020

As they head out the door, Trump-led financial regulators are warning the incoming Biden team that a little-known yet critical corner of Wall Street is broken.

Their concern centers on the short-term funding market, which provides money to businesses, local governments and market players. When this market breaks down, the entire economy can screech to a halt.
That's what happened during the 2008 financial crisis -- and the pandemic caused it to collapse again.

Alarmingly, the short-term funding market imploded late last year and then again in March when the pandemic erupted -- forcing the Federal Reserve to come to the rescue by pledging hundreds of billions of dollars of support.
"Recent events, including the financial fallout from the pandemic, have confirmed that potentially significant structural vulnerabilities remain" in short-term funding markets, the Trump-led Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) warned late last week in its final annual report.

FSOC, created by the 2010 Dodd-Frank law, is a team of regulators from the SEC, Fed, FDIC and other agencies charged with identifying risks to the financial system. It's chaired by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Next year, assuming she's confirmed by the US Senate, the council will be led by Janet Yellen, whom President-elect Joe Biden tapped as Mnuchin's successor.
The FSOC is concerned enough about the liquidity issue that it called on regulators to study the short-term funding market and, "if warranted," take "appropriate measures to mitigate these vulnerabilities."

The council did not offer any potential solutions, however -- leaving that task up to the incoming team.

"Our short-term markets don't seem to be able to function without a very significant government backstop. We need to fix it," said Jeremy Kress, a University of Michigan professor who researches financial regulation.

'Structural vulnerabilities'


That won't be easy, because regulators and experts don't seem to know exactly why this corner of the financial market keeps breaking down.

"There is still so much we don't know about these markets and how they work," said Kress. "That's a big part of the problem,"

But there's little doubt short-term markets are vulnerable to bouts of market stress.

Just look at what happened to money market funds, a type of mutual fund that invests in very short-term debt. Although money market funds are supposed to be very safe, in the last dozen years they had to be bailed out twice by Uncle Sam.

As the pandemic erupted earlier this year, money market funds came under severe pressure, prompting investors to yank their cash. In March, outflows from certain institutional and retail money markets exceeded that of the September 2008 crisis, according to FSOC.

"Stresses" on money market funds in March "revealed continued structural vulnerabilities," the FSOC report said. Worse, this pressure "likely contributed to the stress" in the broader short-term funding markets.


Companies, local governments and market players rely on this funding to function. When it dries up, it can become difficult for companies and everyday Americans to borrow money.

Money market funds are significant buyers of a short-term form of debt known as commercial paper. But in March as markets cratered on recession fears, these funds stepped away from the commercial paper market, causing it to be "severely disrupted," according to FSOC. Borrowing rates reached levels unseen since 2008.

"Many firms reportedly were unable to issue CP or to only issue at a very high yield," FSOC said.

The Fed was forced to come to the rescue.

The US central bank invoked its emergency powers to launch (and in some cases, re-launch from its 2008 playbook) a series of programs aimed at unlocking markets.

At its peak in April, the Fed's money market liquidity facility provided $54 billion of loans. The programs worked as the exodus from money markets stopped and the commercial paper market calmed down.

"It's absolutely preposterous that money market funds needed a backstop during this crisis just like they did during the last," said Isaac Boltansky, director of policy research at Compass Point Research & Trading. "My sense is that the Biden administration will take another swing at that corner of the market."

'Defied any rational explanation'


The repo market, which is also part of the short-term lending market, blew up months before the pandemic. Although it operates in the shadows, this overnight market plays a central role in finance, allowing banks and market players to quickly and cheaply borrow money for a short period of time. More than $4 trillion in repo borrowings were conducted during the second quarter alone.

Overnight lending rates spiked in mid-September 2019 -- the first such period of extreme stress since 2008. Except, unlike in 2008, this breakdown occurred during an otherwise calm period for markets and the economy.

"In 2008, it made sense. At the end of last year, the short-term funding market defied any rational explanation," said Kress, the University of Michigan professor.

Worse, the unexpectedly high volatility in the repo market caused a relatively modest spillover to the fed funds market, according to FSOC. That caused the effective federal funds rate to break above the target set by the Federal Reserve --a bad sign because it suggests the Fed has lost control over the market.

The Fed was forced to step in by conducting its first repo operations in more than a decade. To further calm markets, the US central bank promised to buy $60 billion per month of Treasury bills. By injecting vast amounts of liquidity, the emergency steps worked to calm down the repo market, at least until the pandemic hit this year.

"The repo market was strained again because of the market dislocations caused by the Covid-19 pandemic," the FSOC report said.

The role of hedge funds


In March, the Fed calmed the repo market by pledging to buy Treasury securities, initially at a pace of $75 billion a day.

In its report last week, FSOC urged regulators to study the role of nonbank players, including hedge funds and real estate investment trusts, in contributing to the repeated repo market turmoil.

Now, that task will fall to Yellen and the Biden team of regulators.

Kress said the incoming administration will have to decide whether to "chip away" at the problem or "go bigger" by implementing larger-scale reform.

"We cannot continue to rely on the Federal Reserve to preserve the functioning of short-term funding markets," he said. "We need to get to a place where these markets can function on their own."

Hopefully that will happen well before the next crisis.

[beshannon]

Pfizer Vaccine, Tesla, Uber, Stitch Fix - 5 Things You Must Know Tuesday

https://www.thestreet.com/markets/5-...tuesday-120820

[JParm]

https://seekingalpha.com/news/364239...-shares-fall-2

Smart move by TSLA here. Long in the stock and not selling on this.

[chsu74]

Bought PERI divesting from APPS. Its running.

Also following ARK on PACB since the mid teens.

[gabrielnovar]

Originally Posted by chsu74

Bought PERI divesting from APPS. Its running.

Also following ARK on PACB since the mid teens.

pacb has a good shot of a 20X+ stock price. ARK stated ILMN was set to be a couple hundred billion MC they sold their position and went all in PACB

once it becomes known everyone will flood to PACB

[avidflyer]

FSLY making a run today

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by gabrielnovar

pacb has a good shot of a 20X+ stock price. ARK stated ILMN was set to be a couple hundred billion MC they sold their position and went all in PACB

once it becomes known everyone will flood to PACB

I hope so. Sitting on a nice chunk..

CLSK making a run as well. Stocks experienced with a hit piece typically takes 8-10 weeks to recover. Back on track and those rich option premiums sold are eroding nicely.

[RBradleigh]

Originally Posted by avidflyer

FSLY making a run today

I swear that stock is as volatile as bitcoin