The Rolex Forums   The Rolex Watch

ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX

Friday 7 March 2025 @ 12:46:34 am

Go Back   Rolex Forums - Rolex Forum > General Topics > Open Discussion Forum

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 19 December 2020, 07:52 PM   #5851
Xelorpepsi
"TRF" Member
 
Xelorpepsi's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: UK
Posts: 310
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hard_Six View Post
I'm in these for a bit, no worries. And you're right, the TAK and COTY calls are looking good.
I wouldn't touch COTY with a stick:
- Ageing product portfolio (e.g. Max Factor)
- Declining margins
- Highly levered ($7.8bn)
- Poor management team across the board and not sure the appointment of the new CEO, Sur Naby, will change much

If JAB did not control such a large portion of the group, they would be dead by now. I may be completely wrong, but they will have to sell all the valuable brands and assets to their competitors to delever.

The only way for these groups to survive is to keep acquiring challenger brands - It's a highly commoditised space and even P&G, J&J or Unilever struggle to maintain their profitability.
Xelorpepsi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 20 December 2020, 12:52 AM   #5852
chadwick4eva
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2020
Location: United States
Posts: 103
JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley announce share buyback programs after hours on Friday. Nike smoked earnings. All are up about 5-6% in after hours trading atm. All long term winners and holds for me- looks like we may be in for a good Monday
__________________
Rolex 126710BLNR
Rolex 116500LN
chadwick4eva is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 20 December 2020, 03:50 AM   #5853
logo
"TRF" Member
 
logo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2019
Location: North America
Posts: 2,369
Quote:
Originally Posted by 7sins View Post
Thank you for sharing, that is good insight. I spent a ton of time researching the rest of their pipeline which is extensive for the next 10 years. My hope was this EoE approval would be the catalyst to push them above $20. Either way, have 13 months for this to play out and with Cathie Woods loading into this and I know her team in/out, I have full confidence.

I own FDX June $320C, wanted to give myself plenty of time after this earnings. They are increasing prices and margins for the next two quarters, usually their holiday season ends just after xmas but they are forecasting a run all the way through Jan 19th. Upcoming quarter includes black friday and cyber monday, so I will wait on these positions until then at least. Looking at the order book, I see a lot of orders around $280, so I can't imagine we dip below $280 tomorrow and I will look to add if we are down in the AM.

Going to see what tomorrow opening bell brings, I think a lot of people come to their senses and see what a blowout quarter it was along with the positivity on their earnings call pushing it green. If not, I will look at June calls and Jan 2022 leaps to see where IV comes the most down. If you want less risk, go further ITM, I typically shoot for 10-15% OTM depending on the security, expiration and my personal PO.



Right on brother, not sure if the TSLA inclusion tomorrow will force index funds to trim most sp500 company positions for inclusion, which could cause more than normal sell volume in FDX.
No problem - I often try to limit myself away from health stocks because I find my own bias as a physician creeps in and leads me in the wrong direction (less able to think critically about the business, and focus more on the health problem it solves). So from that perspective I really enjoy hearing other members thoughts on health stocks here. As we know in medicine, a successful business does not equate to health demand and vice versa, and moreover medicine is notoriously slow to adopt change, unless it's truly something revolutionary. If the business plan is sound, probably that is much more important. Funny enough, I do engineering as well and in those cases I do tend to gravitate my investment strategies towards tech that I am familiar with, interested in or believe will be highly innovative - much faster uptake in the tech sphere.

Thanks again for the advice on the FDX calls - I put in an limit order at the open for Jun $320 calls, and it filled in the last hour of trading, so I got lucky. Feeling good about this one. I'm not super experienced in options, but have been slowly learning. I find the most challenging difference between options and holding shares is selling - as someone who usually buys and holds for a while, finding the right time to sell options to maximize profit, and avoid rapid declines in time value or IV (and prevent going negative!) is tough. I appreciate your advice and explanations/rationalizations in this thread.
logo is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 20 December 2020, 07:01 AM   #5854
7sins
"TRF" Member
 
7sins's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Real Name: B.
Location: Beverly Hills, CA
Posts: 3,692
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xelorpepsi View Post
I wouldn't touch COTY with a stick:
- Ageing product portfolio (e.g. Max Factor)
- Declining margins
- Highly levered ($7.8bn)
- Poor management team across the board and not sure the appointment of the new CEO, Sur Naby, will change much

If JAB did not control such a large portion of the group, they would be dead by now. I may be completely wrong, but they will have to sell all the valuable brands and assets to their competitors to delever.

The only way for these groups to survive is to keep acquiring challenger brands - It's a highly commoditised space and even P&G, J&J or Unilever struggle to maintain their profitability.
I politefully disagree, they just sold a portion of their Wella stake to KKR (highly regarded investment firm who would not invest in garbage) for $2.5B which drastically reduces their debt on the balance sheet which is a BIG deal. Lets not also forget that COTY is majority stake holder in kyliecosmetics which the majority of their line is almost entirely sold out when it is listed online and one of the most in demand cosmetics brands. I believe some of your comments would be reflective of Coty earlier this year, A LOT has changed since then and they are on their way to profitability given their significant pickup in EPS last quarter. A lot of this has to do with their transition more into the ecommerce market place opposed to traditional brick and mortar stores.

I'm not sure who Sur Naby is but Sue Nabi, COTY's new CEO has an incredible track record of success with spending over 20 years at L'Oreal and eventually became their youngest CEO in their 110 company history. In 2009, she joined Lancome – leading the brand to three years of up-to-double-digit growth and a record turnover of $3.2B. Her team and her also have extensive digital sales experience ,which Coty was lacking prior but will be significant as they continue to expand their global brand presence. Prior to her, I would agree there was high CEO turnover and poor management team which was reflected in the declining stock price and creates an opportunity for more upside with the new CEO.

Obviously the need for cosmetics this year fell off a cliff causing the stock to crater from $12 to $5. With vaccines coming and some form of normalcy next year, cosmetics should see a huge boost. Do you know any woman who does not use cosmetics? I am NOT saying this is a long term hold and it will NOT shoot from $7 today to $20 next year. I am saying that at $7 today it is VERY undervalued (especially compared to peers) and should easily be $10 by next year going into earnings (a recent Citi analyst agreed and raised their PO from $4 to $10). At $10, that would be 150% return on my call options.

Lastly there has been significant insider buying in COTY with very few insiders selling, which I view as a positive as they know the company better than anyone else https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activi...sider-activity.

Just my .02 and subjective opinion of course.
__________________
Richard Mille RG RM030 || Richard Mille RM72ti || AP 26240 50TH Green Royal Oak Chrono || AP Royal Oak Off Shore Gulf Blue 26238 || AP Royal Oak Blue JUMBO SS 15202ST || AP ROO Diver Green 15720ST || ♕ Rolex Platinum Daytona Diamond 116506 || Cartier Santos
7sins is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 20 December 2020, 07:29 AM   #5855
7sins
"TRF" Member
 
7sins's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Real Name: B.
Location: Beverly Hills, CA
Posts: 3,692
Quote:
Originally Posted by logo View Post
No problem - I often try to limit myself away from health stocks because I find my own bias as a physician creeps in and leads me in the wrong direction (less able to think critically about the business, and focus more on the health problem it solves). So from that perspective I really enjoy hearing other members thoughts on health stocks here. As we know in medicine, a successful business does not equate to health demand and vice versa, and moreover medicine is notoriously slow to adopt change, unless it's truly something revolutionary. If the business plan is sound, probably that is much more important. Funny enough, I do engineering as well and in those cases I do tend to gravitate my investment strategies towards tech that I am familiar with, interested in or believe will be highly innovative - much faster uptake in the tech sphere.

Thanks again for the advice on the FDX calls - I put in an limit order at the open for Jun $320 calls, and it filled in the last hour of trading, so I got lucky. Feeling good about this one. I'm not super experienced in options, but have been slowly learning. I find the most challenging difference between options and holding shares is selling - as someone who usually buys and holds for a while, finding the right time to sell options to maximize profit, and avoid rapid declines in time value or IV (and prevent going negative!) is tough. I appreciate your advice and explanations/rationalizations in this thread.
Thank you for the very kind words, feel free to always ask any questions, more than happy to help. I've been trading options for a very long time and learned most of my lessons the hard way. Most importantly is it is always near impossible to time options, that is why I usually buy LEAPs (longer than a year) or if I see a really great opportunity I will target 6 months just in case we see severe market volatility. Most people overlook IV but it is something you can screen for, look for options with substantial IV and then write puts to collect income with a possible low likelihood of the options being assigned to you. Or since you like to own stocks, you can write a put to collect income and if it assigns to you, that lowers your cost basis. For a very extreme example, look at QS which has had a lot of volatility. Trades at 73 and jan 22 2021 options are over 200% IV. Lets say you were hypothetically bullish on QS, right now a Jan 22 $70 put is $23 (which is absurd, option expires in a month). If you write the put, you immediately generate $2300 per contract of income into your account with the breakeven now at $47. So if the stock doesn't reach $43 by Jan 22 2021 that means the 2300 for each put contract you wrote is yours to keep. Lets say the stock falls down and you get assigned the stock, since you were paid $23 you now own the stock at $47 net opposed to $70 which is great if you were bullish on the stock. I don't know enough about QS but just using this as an extreme example. The risk being here is that if QS shoots up, you miss out on the upside which can easily be hedged through various methods like buying calls on the stock.

One day I will write a thread about varying options to help everyone, or write maybe a post a week about a different type of option if everyone would find it helpful.
__________________
Richard Mille RG RM030 || Richard Mille RM72ti || AP 26240 50TH Green Royal Oak Chrono || AP Royal Oak Off Shore Gulf Blue 26238 || AP Royal Oak Blue JUMBO SS 15202ST || AP ROO Diver Green 15720ST || ♕ Rolex Platinum Daytona Diamond 116506 || Cartier Santos
7sins is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 20 December 2020, 09:50 AM   #5856
FLGatorM5
2025 TitaniumYM Pledge Member
 
FLGatorM5's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2019
Location: FL
Posts: 439
Quote:
Originally Posted by 7sins View Post
Thank you for the very kind words, feel free to always ask any questions, more than happy to help. I've been trading options for a very long time and learned most of my lessons the hard way. Most importantly is it is always near impossible to time options, that is why I usually buy LEAPs (longer than a year) or if I see a really great opportunity I will target 6 months just in case we see severe market volatility. Most people overlook IV but it is something you can screen for, look for options with substantial IV and then write puts to collect income with a possible low likelihood of the options being assigned to you. Or since you like to own stocks, you can write a put to collect income and if it assigns to you, that lowers your cost basis. For a very extreme example, look at QS which has had a lot of volatility. Trades at 73 and jan 22 2021 options are over 200% IV. Lets say you were hypothetically bullish on QS, right now a Jan 22 $70 put is $23 (which is absurd, option expires in a month). If you write the put, you immediately generate $2300 per contract of income into your account with the breakeven now at $47. So if the stock doesn't reach $43 by Jan 22 2021 that means the 2300 for each put contract you wrote is yours to keep. Lets say the stock falls down and you get assigned the stock, since you were paid $23 you now own the stock at $47 net opposed to $70 which is great if you were bullish on the stock. I don't know enough about QS but just using this as an extreme example. The risk being here is that if QS shoots up, you miss out on the upside which can easily be hedged through various methods like buying calls on the stock.

One day I will write a thread about varying options to help everyone, or write maybe a post a week about a different type of option if everyone would find it helpful.

I appreciate the thought process.

I’m just starting to move into spreads and cash covered puts. Any advice on places to read more (and preferably with real world examples)?
FLGatorM5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 20 December 2020, 11:59 AM   #5857
7sins
"TRF" Member
 
7sins's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Real Name: B.
Location: Beverly Hills, CA
Posts: 3,692
Quote:
Originally Posted by FLGatorM5 View Post
I appreciate the thought process.

I’m just starting to move into spreads and cash covered puts. Any advice on places to read more (and preferably with real world examples)?
https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/learn?....1608429316689

Don't let the peculiar name fool you, these guys are great. HIGHLY HIGHLY recommend reading the options for beginners guide, or if you are slightly more advanced they have a wide array of different lessons - notice the subsections if you want to read only on calendar spreads etc etc. They do a great job of explaining concepts that are easy to understand and use a lot of examples. All of it is free and highly informative, most of the lessons include a video too. Well worth the time.
__________________
Richard Mille RG RM030 || Richard Mille RM72ti || AP 26240 50TH Green Royal Oak Chrono || AP Royal Oak Off Shore Gulf Blue 26238 || AP Royal Oak Blue JUMBO SS 15202ST || AP ROO Diver Green 15720ST || ♕ Rolex Platinum Daytona Diamond 116506 || Cartier Santos
7sins is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 20 December 2020, 12:15 PM   #5858
FLGatorM5
2025 TitaniumYM Pledge Member
 
FLGatorM5's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2019
Location: FL
Posts: 439
Quote:
Originally Posted by 7sins View Post
https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/learn?....1608429316689

Don't let the peculiar name fool you, these guys are great. HIGHLY HIGHLY recommend reading the options for beginners guide, or if you are slightly more advanced they have a wide array of different lessons - notice the subsections if you want to read only on calendar spreads etc etc. They do a great job of explaining concepts that are easy to understand and use a lot of examples. All of it is free and highly informative, most of the lessons include a video too. Well worth the time.

Nice! Thank you.
FLGatorM5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 20 December 2020, 01:02 PM   #5859
JWD531
"TRF" Member
 
JWD531's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: Tulsa, OK
Watch: 126710 BLNR
Posts: 621
Quote:
Originally Posted by FLGatorM5 View Post
Nice! Thank you.

+ 1 for Tasty Trade, I am learning a lot from their info. My financial advisor actually recommended them to me.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
JWD531 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 20 December 2020, 10:39 PM   #5860
Xelorpepsi
"TRF" Member
 
Xelorpepsi's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: UK
Posts: 310
Quote:
Originally Posted by 7sins View Post
I politefully disagree, they just sold a portion of their Wella stake to KKR (highly regarded investment firm who would not invest in garbage) for $2.5B which drastically reduces their debt on the balance sheet which is a BIG deal. Lets not also forget that COTY is majority stake holder in kyliecosmetics which the majority of their line is almost entirely sold out when it is listed online and one of the most in demand cosmetics brands. I believe some of your comments would be reflective of Coty earlier this year, A LOT has changed since then and they are on their way to profitability given their significant pickup in EPS last quarter. A lot of this has to do with their transition more into the ecommerce market place opposed to traditional brick and mortar stores.

I'm not sure who Sur Naby is but Sue Nabi, COTY's new CEO has an incredible track record of success with spending over 20 years at L'Oreal and eventually became their youngest CEO in their 110 company history. In 2009, she joined Lancome – leading the brand to three years of up-to-double-digit growth and a record turnover of $3.2B. Her team and her also have extensive digital sales experience ,which Coty was lacking prior but will be significant as they continue to expand their global brand presence. Prior to her, I would agree there was high CEO turnover and poor management team which was reflected in the declining stock price and creates an opportunity for more upside with the new CEO.

Obviously the need for cosmetics this year fell off a cliff causing the stock to crater from $12 to $5. With vaccines coming and some form of normalcy next year, cosmetics should see a huge boost. Do you know any woman who does not use cosmetics? I am NOT saying this is a long term hold and it will NOT shoot from $7 today to $20 next year. I am saying that at $7 today it is VERY undervalued (especially compared to peers) and should easily be $10 by next year going into earnings (a recent Citi analyst agreed and raised their PO from $4 to $10). At $10, that would be 150% return on my call options.

Lastly there has been significant insider buying in COTY with very few insiders selling, which I view as a positive as they know the company better than anyone else https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activi...sider-activity.

Just my .02 and subjective opinion of course.
I enjoy my anonymity here, so let's just say that I know both the PE space, KKR in particular, and skincare extremely well. We are here to exchange ideas, learn and hopefully make some money too, so please don't take my comment personally.

- KKR acquired a 60% stake in Coty Professional Beauty, now Wella, for an EV of $4.3bn. On their end, it's pure financial engineering and a cost cutting exercise to bring margins up - won't comment on that. It helped delever a bit Coty's balance sheet, but they had to sell one of their rare cash cows and on a pro forma basis their net debt to EBITDA still looks really nasty. Most likely, KKR will exercise the drag along provision and force Coty to sell. Great on paper, will reduce the debt burden, but Coty will be left with few strong brands and significantly smaller - although with a cleaner cap structure.

- All the people who've been at the helm of COTY had amazing track-records. It's one thing to hire a top gun, but if the rest of the organisation is broken and relies on outdates processes and infrastructure, it will take ages to turnaround the business. One person can't do the job for the 19k or so existing employees.

- The acquisition of Kylie Skin still needs to be EPS accretive in the long run. They paid 9.6x FY18 Revenue (i.e. $125m top-line, can't remember the EBITDA back then) for a sub par and pricey product range that won't be relevant in the next 3 /4 years (formulas full of nasties, low / no recyclability, with a huge key person risk, etc). Kylie sells today, but nothing tells you she will tomorrow... just like most influencers. It was a fantastic opportunity for her to crystallise some of her gains, but it will most likely be a poor bet for Coty apart from the fantastic PR stunt. Keep in mind that even if things go well, it's still very small and with a 60% ownership the contribution to their bottom line is negligible.

- Only point where I agree with you is that makeup consumption is down and will bounce back. It's just a timing issue. The drop has already been partly offset by an increase in skincare purchases as people develop new skin problems (e.g. Maskne) due to face masks, the lack of exposure to the sun and an overexposure to blue light.

Is there a chance for the stock to bounce back from $7 to $10 or even $15, absolutely - but as we stand, Coty still needs to do a huge amount of work to turnaround their operations and be in a much better place in two or three years. It can be short-term bet, but if you take a long-term view, there are many safer stocks in the FMCG space.
Xelorpepsi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 21 December 2020, 01:13 AM   #5861
GB-man
2025 TitaniumYM Pledge Member
 
GB-man's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: USA
Watch: addiction issues
Posts: 37,668
Never ever did I think I would get this sort of in depth analysis of the skin care industry on TRF lol

Good info
__________________
GB-man is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 21 December 2020, 03:02 AM   #5862
logo
"TRF" Member
 
logo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2019
Location: North America
Posts: 2,369
I can see both sides to the argument. Skincare in general, while a huge business, has not had massive growth recently to its major players - not for lack of consumers, but more so because consumer preferences have shifted towards niche products from niche brands. Buy your moisturizer here, your eye cream there, your toner somewhere else etc. Same for makeup. The majority of skin care sales are to people with high incomes, and still the skin care industry took a hit of about 15-20% revenue this year. I’ve seen reports to suggest it will take up to 5 years to see revenues similar to 2019. By that token, the players that will outpace the rest are the ones who (a) offer the bare essentials that everyone uses like shampoos and cleansers (L’Oreal, P&G, Unilever), and (b) the specific niche brands that have something highly sought after. To me, that is the appeal of Coty’s KKW and Kylie Skin - the immediate and short term future demand is huge, regardless of whether it’s a good product or not. Nonetheless, if they can show huge growth to those lines above industry average in the short term, that may bode well for them as a quick trade opportunity. I would agree as a long term hold COTY would not be for me though, relating to some of the analysis here in this thread.

2020 has done wonders to reduce sun exposure, the main factor involved in ageing skin and skin cancer. Many patients are wanting cosmetic consults for their face resulting from being on Zoom all the time.
logo is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 21 December 2020, 12:13 PM   #5863
7sins
"TRF" Member
 
7sins's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Real Name: B.
Location: Beverly Hills, CA
Posts: 3,692
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xelorpepsi View Post
I enjoy my anonymity here, so let's just say that I know both the PE space, KKR in particular, and skincare extremely well. We are here to exchange ideas, learn and hopefully make some money too, so please don't take my comment personally.

- KKR acquired a 60% stake in Coty Professional Beauty, now Wella, for an EV of $4.3bn. On their end, it's pure financial engineering and a cost cutting exercise to bring margins up - won't comment on that. It helped delever a bit Coty's balance sheet, but they had to sell one of their rare cash cows and on a pro forma basis their net debt to EBITDA still looks really nasty. Most likely, KKR will exercise the drag along provision and force Coty to sell. Great on paper, will reduce the debt burden, but Coty will be left with few strong brands and significantly smaller - although with a cleaner cap structure.

- All the people who've been at the helm of COTY had amazing track-records. It's one thing to hire a top gun, but if the rest of the organisation is broken and relies on outdates processes and infrastructure, it will take ages to turnaround the business. One person can't do the job for the 19k or so existing employees.

- The acquisition of Kylie Skin still needs to be EPS accretive in the long run. They paid 9.6x FY18 Revenue (i.e. $125m top-line, can't remember the EBITDA back then) for a sub par and pricey product range that won't be relevant in the next 3 /4 years (formulas full of nasties, low / no recyclability, with a huge key person risk, etc). Kylie sells today, but nothing tells you she will tomorrow... just like most influencers. It was a fantastic opportunity for her to crystallise some of her gains, but it will most likely be a poor bet for Coty apart from the fantastic PR stunt. Keep in mind that even if things go well, it's still very small and with a 60% ownership the contribution to their bottom line is negligible.

- Only point where I agree with you is that makeup consumption is down and will bounce back. It's just a timing issue. The drop has already been partly offset by an increase in skincare purchases as people develop new skin problems (e.g. Maskne) due to face masks, the lack of exposure to the sun and an overexposure to blue light.

Is there a chance for the stock to bounce back from $7 to $10 or even $15, absolutely - but as we stand, Coty still needs to do a huge amount of work to turnaround their operations and be in a much better place in two or three years. It can be short-term bet, but if you take a long-term view, there are many safer stocks in the FMCG space.
Agree to disagree my friend, a variance of opinions is what drives stock prices up and down. Appreciate the back and forth, always nice to have a different perspective - even in disagreeance. I'll refrain from my opinion on the aforementioned to not get this thread off track. Lets check back in on $Coty in a few months and see where we stand. B
__________________
Richard Mille RG RM030 || Richard Mille RM72ti || AP 26240 50TH Green Royal Oak Chrono || AP Royal Oak Off Shore Gulf Blue 26238 || AP Royal Oak Blue JUMBO SS 15202ST || AP ROO Diver Green 15720ST || ♕ Rolex Platinum Daytona Diamond 116506 || Cartier Santos
7sins is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 21 December 2020, 08:07 PM   #5864
Xelorpepsi
"TRF" Member
 
Xelorpepsi's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: UK
Posts: 310
@7sins - Really appreciate the exchange. Let's see where we are in 3 months, suspect in the short-term you will be right, but in the long run I will. Have a nice day!
Xelorpepsi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 21 December 2020, 10:25 PM   #5865
beshannon
"TRF" Member
 
beshannon's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Real Name: Brian
Location: Northern Virginia
Watch: One of Not Many
Posts: 17,892
Quote:
Originally Posted by chadwick4eva View Post
JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley announce share buyback programs after hours on Friday. Nike smoked earnings. All are up about 5-6% in after hours trading atm. All long term winners and holds for me- looks like we may be in for a good Monday
Good to see the banks being allowed to resume buybacks. I am long JPM and MS.

The "sell the news" is very evident this morning combined with very light trading for the next two weeks, we could be in for some volatility.

Tesla, Stimulus, Coronavirus, Apple - 5 Things You Must Know Monday

https://www.thestreet.com/markets/5-...-monday-122120

At this point I would be inclined to take more off rather than buying.
__________________
IWC Portugieser 7 Day, Omega Seamaster SMP300m, Vacheron Constantin Traditionnelle Complete Calendar, Glashutte PanoInverse, Glashutte SeaQ Panorama Date, Omega Aqua Terra 150, Omega CK 859, Omega Speedmaster 3861 Moonwatch, Breitling Superocean Steelfish, JLC Atmos Transparent Clock
beshannon is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 21 December 2020, 10:57 PM   #5866
JParm
"TRF" Member
 
JParm's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: NorCal
Watch: Yes!
Posts: 6,579
Quote:
Originally Posted by beshannon View Post

The "sell the news" is very evident this morning combined with very light trading for the next two weeks, we could be in for some volatility.
Not sure if it's so much a sell the news event versus fears over the new strain found in the UK.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-...S%3D1608555378

Either way, I'm staying invested here and watching for large dips to add to on the tech side.
__________________
JParm is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 22 December 2020, 12:04 AM   #5867
jaisonline
2025 Pledge Member
 
jaisonline's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: USA
Watch: 5 digit models
Posts: 1,516
Interesting video interview of Andrew Left from Citron.

https://www.zer0es.tv/interviews-and...ed-valuations/
jaisonline is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 22 December 2020, 01:35 AM   #5868
logo
"TRF" Member
 
logo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2019
Location: North America
Posts: 2,369
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/...c7b4da9f0666c8

Still uncovering details about the new strain and what it means from a public health (and therefore economic) perspective. The thought is the new strain is more transmissible, or more contagious than the previous - while that’s problematic, often more contagious viruses are less fatal (after all, if the virus spreads quickly from one person to the next it implies the original host did not get sick enough to stop engaging in exposure-generating activities and did not die with it. In contrast to MERS which was also a coronavirus, but slow to spread and very deadly). Hopefully the new strain will be less severe if indeed it spreads quicker (keep in mind, the common cold is also in the coronavirus family of viruses). From a vaccine perspective, it is likely the current vaccines will still offer at least some protection to a new strain. And with the PFE/MRNA technology, the ability to produce a new vaccine with a different strain would be relatively quick, if absolutely needed.

All that to say, I’m hopeful the markets will turn around a little bit this week.
logo is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 22 December 2020, 02:15 AM   #5869
jaisonline
2025 Pledge Member
 
jaisonline's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: USA
Watch: 5 digit models
Posts: 1,516
Talking Stocks 2.0

Hey Logo, my wife (also a MD who helps a couple pharmaceuticals with NASH trials) says the same about what’s going on in England based on current known info.
jaisonline is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 22 December 2020, 02:29 AM   #5870
logo
"TRF" Member
 
logo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2019
Location: North America
Posts: 2,369
Quote:
Originally Posted by jaisonline View Post
Hey Logo, my wife (also a MD who helps a couple pharmaceuticals with NASH trials) says the same about what’s going on in England based on current known info.
Let us hope that we are both correct. Sad this had to happen right at Christmas time for the UK.
logo is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 22 December 2020, 02:34 AM   #5871
Zack21
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: USA
Posts: 93
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dusko.Popov View Post
For those who don’t want to read all that ...

Fubo.

Recommendation from a half-assed country lawyer.

Fubo
Wow since you suggested FUBO, I have been watching and waiting for a little price pullback that never materialized. Great call on this stock and congratulations on major upward price movement! Not sure if I missed the boat or if there are more major gains to come.
Zack21 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 22 December 2020, 03:21 AM   #5872
tudorbaja27
"TRF" Member
 
tudorbaja27's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Location: Miami, FL
Watch: Tudor & Cartier
Posts: 2,499
Quote:
Originally Posted by logo View Post
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/...c7b4da9f0666c8

Still uncovering details about the new strain and what it means from a public health (and therefore economic) perspective. The thought is the new strain is more transmissible, or more contagious than the previous - while that’s problematic, often more contagious viruses are less fatal (after all, if the virus spreads quickly from one person to the next it implies the original host did not get sick enough to stop engaging in exposure-generating activities and did not die with it. In contrast to MERS which was also a coronavirus, but slow to spread and very deadly). Hopefully the new strain will be less severe if indeed it spreads quicker (keep in mind, the common cold is also in the coronavirus family of viruses). From a vaccine perspective, it is likely the current vaccines will still offer at least some protection to a new strain. And with the PFE/MRNA technology, the ability to produce a new vaccine with a different strain would be relatively quick, if absolutely needed.

All that to say, I’m hopeful the markets will turn around a little bit this week.
Give this man a prize!

And "fire" most of the media for the nonsense being spat out over the last few days regarding the new strain of the virus.
__________________
"Chi ha paura muore ogni giorno, chi non ha paura muore una volta sola" - Paolo Borsellino
tudorbaja27 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 22 December 2020, 03:23 AM   #5873
asloper6001
2025 Pledge Member
 
asloper6001's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
Location: West Coast
Posts: 1,398
Quote:
Originally Posted by jaisonline View Post
Interesting video interview of Andrew Left from Citron.

https://www.zer0es.tv/interviews-and...ed-valuations/
Guys a joke and that's putting it nicely. I guarantee he got in low on PLTR after he attacked it. Releases lopsided tweets to push his own agenda. You can just add him to the list of bs analysts. Might as well cry like the other guy on national tv during the pandemic when you have shorts across the board in play. Sorry for rant! How some of these guys get any coverage makes my stomach turn. We all know the jackals in this game.

At least Bobby Axelrod has some spunk.
asloper6001 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 22 December 2020, 03:43 AM   #5874
trippinjimmy
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: May 2019
Location: The Good Life
Posts: 3,090
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zack21 View Post
Wow since you suggested FUBO, I have been watching and waiting for a little price pullback that never materialized. Great call on this stock and congratulations on major upward price movement! Not sure if I missed the boat or if there are more major gains to come.
David Gardener recommended the stock on Thursday, hence the upwards price action. Give it a couple of days, and it should stabilize a bit if you indeed think it's a long term winner.
trippinjimmy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 22 December 2020, 05:19 AM   #5875
Zack21
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: USA
Posts: 93
Quote:
Originally Posted by trippinjimmy View Post
David Gardener recommended the stock on Thursday, hence the upwards price action. Give it a couple of days, and it should stabilize a bit if you indeed think it's a long term winner.
Thanks for the heads up
Zack21 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 22 December 2020, 06:02 AM   #5876
jaisonline
2025 Pledge Member
 
jaisonline's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: USA
Watch: 5 digit models
Posts: 1,516
Quote:
Originally Posted by asloper6001 View Post
Guys a joke and that's putting it nicely. I guarantee he got in low on PLTR after he attacked it. Releases lopsided tweets to push his own agenda. You can just add him to the list of bs analysts. Might as well cry like the other guy on national tv during the pandemic when you have shorts across the board in play. Sorry for rant! How some of these guys get any coverage makes my stomach turn. We all know the jackals in this game.

At least Bobby Axelrod has some spunk.

I don’t disagree. It’s always good to know what some popular shorter sellers like Left & Hindenburg look at.

By the way, his PLTR casino tweet was fluff. No substance to support it & yes, Left likely buys in the dips he creates. I take him more seriously when reports are linked in the tweet.

I gotta check if he also has a short position in SNOW. I know he thinks DASH is a joke as do i
jaisonline is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 22 December 2020, 06:44 AM   #5877
bimmer nerd
"TRF" Member
 
bimmer nerd's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: Los Angeles
Watch: 126710 BLNR
Posts: 75
https://seekingalpha.com/article/439...etal-batteries

If you're in the EV market, good read on QuantumScape. It had a 23% jump today.
bimmer nerd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 22 December 2020, 06:46 AM   #5878
asloper6001
2025 Pledge Member
 
asloper6001's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
Location: West Coast
Posts: 1,398
Quote:
Originally Posted by jaisonline View Post
I don’t disagree. It’s always good to know what some popular shorter sellers like Left & Hindenburg look at.

By the way, his PLTR casino tweet was fluff. No substance to support it & yes, Left likely buys in the dips he creates. I take him more seriously when reports are linked in the tweet.

I gotta check if he also has a short position in SNOW. I know he thinks DASH is a joke as do i

Yea I agree. I think he was actively bashing SNOW too if I recall hearing second hand. I cant stand the guy as you've may have noticed, so I only see bits and pieces that seem to get published somehow. There was a chart if I recall that shows all his short positions and all them were up massive amounts of money besides one. Must be nice to be able to release a tweet and move a stock to your favor with a shit track record. His motive is clear to short to get in like you stated. Agree 100% on Dash though. lol
asloper6001 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 22 December 2020, 06:59 AM   #5879
jaisonline
2025 Pledge Member
 
jaisonline's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: USA
Watch: 5 digit models
Posts: 1,516
Talking Stocks 2.0

FYI...

3:40p ET 12/21/2020 - Benzinga
*Velodyne Lidar shares are trading higher following a report indicating Apple is targeting electric car production as early as 2024 and is expected to partner with outside lidar companies for some sensors.
jaisonline is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 22 December 2020, 07:00 AM   #5880
jaisonline
2025 Pledge Member
 
jaisonline's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: USA
Watch: 5 digit models
Posts: 1,516
Quote:
Originally Posted by asloper6001 View Post
Yea I agree. I think he was actively bashing SNOW too if I recall hearing second hand. I cant stand the guy as you've may have noticed, so I only see bits and pieces that seem to get published somehow. There was a chart if I recall that shows all his short positions and all them were up massive amounts of money besides one. Must be nice to be able to release a tweet and move a stock to your favor with a shit track record. His motive is clear to short to get in like you stated. Agree 100% on Dash though. lol

Many of us seem to have low expectations on DASH :)
jaisonline is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 2 (0 members and 2 guests)
 

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

DavidSW Watches

OCWatches

Wrist Aficionado

WatchShell

My Watch LLC

Takuya Watches

WatchesOff5th


*Banners Of The Month*
This space is provided to horological resources.





Copyright ©2004-2025, The Rolex Forums. All Rights Reserved.

ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX

Rolex is a registered trademark of ROLEX USA. The Rolex Forums is not affiliated with ROLEX USA in any way.