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#5851 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: UK
Posts: 310
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Quote:
- Ageing product portfolio (e.g. Max Factor) - Declining margins - Highly levered ($7.8bn) - Poor management team across the board and not sure the appointment of the new CEO, Sur Naby, will change much If JAB did not control such a large portion of the group, they would be dead by now. I may be completely wrong, but they will have to sell all the valuable brands and assets to their competitors to delever. The only way for these groups to survive is to keep acquiring challenger brands - It's a highly commoditised space and even P&G, J&J or Unilever struggle to maintain their profitability. |
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#5852 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Sep 2020
Location: United States
Posts: 103
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JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley announce share buyback programs after hours on Friday. Nike smoked earnings. All are up about 5-6% in after hours trading atm. All long term winners and holds for me- looks like we may be in for a good Monday
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Rolex 126710BLNR Rolex 116500LN |
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#5853 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2019
Location: North America
Posts: 2,369
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Quote:
Thanks again for the advice on the FDX calls - I put in an limit order at the open for Jun $320 calls, and it filled in the last hour of trading, so I got lucky. Feeling good about this one. I'm not super experienced in options, but have been slowly learning. I find the most challenging difference between options and holding shares is selling - as someone who usually buys and holds for a while, finding the right time to sell options to maximize profit, and avoid rapid declines in time value or IV (and prevent going negative!) is tough. I appreciate your advice and explanations/rationalizations in this thread. |
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#5854 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2011
Real Name: B.
Location: Beverly Hills, CA
Posts: 3,692
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Quote:
I'm not sure who Sur Naby is but Sue Nabi, COTY's new CEO has an incredible track record of success with spending over 20 years at L'Oreal and eventually became their youngest CEO in their 110 company history. In 2009, she joined Lancome – leading the brand to three years of up-to-double-digit growth and a record turnover of $3.2B. Her team and her also have extensive digital sales experience ,which Coty was lacking prior but will be significant as they continue to expand their global brand presence. Prior to her, I would agree there was high CEO turnover and poor management team which was reflected in the declining stock price and creates an opportunity for more upside with the new CEO. Obviously the need for cosmetics this year fell off a cliff causing the stock to crater from $12 to $5. With vaccines coming and some form of normalcy next year, cosmetics should see a huge boost. Do you know any woman who does not use cosmetics? I am NOT saying this is a long term hold and it will NOT shoot from $7 today to $20 next year. I am saying that at $7 today it is VERY undervalued (especially compared to peers) and should easily be $10 by next year going into earnings (a recent Citi analyst agreed and raised their PO from $4 to $10). At $10, that would be 150% return on my call options. Lastly there has been significant insider buying in COTY with very few insiders selling, which I view as a positive as they know the company better than anyone else https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activi...sider-activity. Just my .02 and subjective opinion of course.
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Richard Mille RG RM030 || Richard Mille RM72ti || AP 26240 50TH Green Royal Oak Chrono || AP Royal Oak Off Shore Gulf Blue 26238 || AP Royal Oak Blue JUMBO SS 15202ST || AP ROO Diver Green 15720ST || ♕ Rolex Platinum Daytona Diamond 116506 || Cartier Santos |
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#5855 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2011
Real Name: B.
Location: Beverly Hills, CA
Posts: 3,692
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Quote:
One day I will write a thread about varying options to help everyone, or write maybe a post a week about a different type of option if everyone would find it helpful.
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Richard Mille RG RM030 || Richard Mille RM72ti || AP 26240 50TH Green Royal Oak Chrono || AP Royal Oak Off Shore Gulf Blue 26238 || AP Royal Oak Blue JUMBO SS 15202ST || AP ROO Diver Green 15720ST || ♕ Rolex Platinum Daytona Diamond 116506 || Cartier Santos |
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#5856 | |
2025 TitaniumYM Pledge Member
Join Date: Jun 2019
Location: FL
Posts: 439
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Quote:
I appreciate the thought process. I’m just starting to move into spreads and cash covered puts. Any advice on places to read more (and preferably with real world examples)? |
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#5857 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2011
Real Name: B.
Location: Beverly Hills, CA
Posts: 3,692
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Quote:
Don't let the peculiar name fool you, these guys are great. HIGHLY HIGHLY recommend reading the options for beginners guide, or if you are slightly more advanced they have a wide array of different lessons - notice the subsections if you want to read only on calendar spreads etc etc. They do a great job of explaining concepts that are easy to understand and use a lot of examples. All of it is free and highly informative, most of the lessons include a video too. Well worth the time.
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Richard Mille RG RM030 || Richard Mille RM72ti || AP 26240 50TH Green Royal Oak Chrono || AP Royal Oak Off Shore Gulf Blue 26238 || AP Royal Oak Blue JUMBO SS 15202ST || AP ROO Diver Green 15720ST || ♕ Rolex Platinum Daytona Diamond 116506 || Cartier Santos |
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#5858 | |
2025 TitaniumYM Pledge Member
Join Date: Jun 2019
Location: FL
Posts: 439
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Quote:
Nice! Thank you. |
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#5859 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: Tulsa, OK
Watch: 126710 BLNR
Posts: 621
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#5860 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: UK
Posts: 310
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Quote:
- KKR acquired a 60% stake in Coty Professional Beauty, now Wella, for an EV of $4.3bn. On their end, it's pure financial engineering and a cost cutting exercise to bring margins up - won't comment on that. It helped delever a bit Coty's balance sheet, but they had to sell one of their rare cash cows and on a pro forma basis their net debt to EBITDA still looks really nasty. Most likely, KKR will exercise the drag along provision and force Coty to sell. Great on paper, will reduce the debt burden, but Coty will be left with few strong brands and significantly smaller - although with a cleaner cap structure. - All the people who've been at the helm of COTY had amazing track-records. It's one thing to hire a top gun, but if the rest of the organisation is broken and relies on outdates processes and infrastructure, it will take ages to turnaround the business. One person can't do the job for the 19k or so existing employees. - The acquisition of Kylie Skin still needs to be EPS accretive in the long run. They paid 9.6x FY18 Revenue (i.e. $125m top-line, can't remember the EBITDA back then) for a sub par and pricey product range that won't be relevant in the next 3 /4 years (formulas full of nasties, low / no recyclability, with a huge key person risk, etc). Kylie sells today, but nothing tells you she will tomorrow... just like most influencers. It was a fantastic opportunity for her to crystallise some of her gains, but it will most likely be a poor bet for Coty apart from the fantastic PR stunt. Keep in mind that even if things go well, it's still very small and with a 60% ownership the contribution to their bottom line is negligible. - Only point where I agree with you is that makeup consumption is down and will bounce back. It's just a timing issue. The drop has already been partly offset by an increase in skincare purchases as people develop new skin problems (e.g. Maskne) due to face masks, the lack of exposure to the sun and an overexposure to blue light. Is there a chance for the stock to bounce back from $7 to $10 or even $15, absolutely - but as we stand, Coty still needs to do a huge amount of work to turnaround their operations and be in a much better place in two or three years. It can be short-term bet, but if you take a long-term view, there are many safer stocks in the FMCG space. |
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#5861 |
2025 TitaniumYM Pledge Member
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: USA
Watch: addiction issues
Posts: 37,668
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Never ever did I think I would get this sort of in depth analysis of the skin care industry on TRF lol
Good info
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#5862 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2019
Location: North America
Posts: 2,369
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I can see both sides to the argument. Skincare in general, while a huge business, has not had massive growth recently to its major players - not for lack of consumers, but more so because consumer preferences have shifted towards niche products from niche brands. Buy your moisturizer here, your eye cream there, your toner somewhere else etc. Same for makeup. The majority of skin care sales are to people with high incomes, and still the skin care industry took a hit of about 15-20% revenue this year. I’ve seen reports to suggest it will take up to 5 years to see revenues similar to 2019. By that token, the players that will outpace the rest are the ones who (a) offer the bare essentials that everyone uses like shampoos and cleansers (L’Oreal, P&G, Unilever), and (b) the specific niche brands that have something highly sought after. To me, that is the appeal of Coty’s KKW and Kylie Skin - the immediate and short term future demand is huge, regardless of whether it’s a good product or not. Nonetheless, if they can show huge growth to those lines above industry average in the short term, that may bode well for them as a quick trade opportunity. I would agree as a long term hold COTY would not be for me though, relating to some of the analysis here in this thread.
2020 has done wonders to reduce sun exposure, the main factor involved in ageing skin and skin cancer. Many patients are wanting cosmetic consults for their face resulting from being on Zoom all the time. |
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#5863 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2011
Real Name: B.
Location: Beverly Hills, CA
Posts: 3,692
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Quote:
__________________
Richard Mille RG RM030 || Richard Mille RM72ti || AP 26240 50TH Green Royal Oak Chrono || AP Royal Oak Off Shore Gulf Blue 26238 || AP Royal Oak Blue JUMBO SS 15202ST || AP ROO Diver Green 15720ST || ♕ Rolex Platinum Daytona Diamond 116506 || Cartier Santos |
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#5864 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: UK
Posts: 310
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@7sins - Really appreciate the exchange. Let's see where we are in 3 months, suspect in the short-term you will be right, but in the long run I will. Have a nice day!
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#5865 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2009
Real Name: Brian
Location: Northern Virginia
Watch: One of Not Many
Posts: 17,892
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Quote:
The "sell the news" is very evident this morning combined with very light trading for the next two weeks, we could be in for some volatility. Tesla, Stimulus, Coronavirus, Apple - 5 Things You Must Know Monday https://www.thestreet.com/markets/5-...-monday-122120 At this point I would be inclined to take more off rather than buying.
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#5866 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: NorCal
Watch: Yes!
Posts: 6,579
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Quote:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-...S%3D1608555378 Either way, I'm staying invested here and watching for large dips to add to on the tech side.
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#5867 |
2025 Pledge Member
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: USA
Watch: 5 digit models
Posts: 1,516
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Interesting video interview of Andrew Left from Citron.
https://www.zer0es.tv/interviews-and...ed-valuations/ |
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#5868 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2019
Location: North America
Posts: 2,369
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https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/...c7b4da9f0666c8
Still uncovering details about the new strain and what it means from a public health (and therefore economic) perspective. The thought is the new strain is more transmissible, or more contagious than the previous - while that’s problematic, often more contagious viruses are less fatal (after all, if the virus spreads quickly from one person to the next it implies the original host did not get sick enough to stop engaging in exposure-generating activities and did not die with it. In contrast to MERS which was also a coronavirus, but slow to spread and very deadly). Hopefully the new strain will be less severe if indeed it spreads quicker (keep in mind, the common cold is also in the coronavirus family of viruses). From a vaccine perspective, it is likely the current vaccines will still offer at least some protection to a new strain. And with the PFE/MRNA technology, the ability to produce a new vaccine with a different strain would be relatively quick, if absolutely needed. All that to say, I’m hopeful the markets will turn around a little bit this week. |
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#5869 |
2025 Pledge Member
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: USA
Watch: 5 digit models
Posts: 1,516
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Talking Stocks 2.0
Hey Logo, my wife (also a MD who helps a couple pharmaceuticals with NASH trials) says the same about what’s going on in England based on current known info.
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#5870 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2019
Location: North America
Posts: 2,369
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#5871 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: USA
Posts: 93
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Wow since you suggested FUBO, I have been watching and waiting for a little price pullback that never materialized. Great call on this stock and congratulations on major upward price movement! Not sure if I missed the boat or if there are more major gains to come.
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#5872 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Sep 2017
Location: Miami, FL
Watch: Tudor & Cartier
Posts: 2,499
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Quote:
And "fire" most of the media for the nonsense being spat out over the last few days regarding the new strain of the virus.
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"Chi ha paura muore ogni giorno, chi non ha paura muore una volta sola" - Paolo Borsellino |
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#5873 | |
2025 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jul 2017
Location: West Coast
Posts: 1,398
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Quote:
At least Bobby Axelrod has some spunk. |
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#5874 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: May 2019
Location: The Good Life
Posts: 3,090
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David Gardener recommended the stock on Thursday, hence the upwards price action. Give it a couple of days, and it should stabilize a bit if you indeed think it's a long term winner.
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#5875 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: USA
Posts: 93
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#5876 | |
2025 Pledge Member
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: USA
Watch: 5 digit models
Posts: 1,516
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Quote:
I don’t disagree. It’s always good to know what some popular shorter sellers like Left & Hindenburg look at. By the way, his PLTR casino tweet was fluff. No substance to support it & yes, Left likely buys in the dips he creates. I take him more seriously when reports are linked in the tweet. I gotta check if he also has a short position in SNOW. I know he thinks DASH is a joke as do i |
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#5877 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: Los Angeles
Watch: 126710 BLNR
Posts: 75
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https://seekingalpha.com/article/439...etal-batteries
If you're in the EV market, good read on QuantumScape. It had a 23% jump today. |
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#5878 | |
2025 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jul 2017
Location: West Coast
Posts: 1,398
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Quote:
Yea I agree. I think he was actively bashing SNOW too if I recall hearing second hand. I cant stand the guy as you've may have noticed, so I only see bits and pieces that seem to get published somehow. There was a chart if I recall that shows all his short positions and all them were up massive amounts of money besides one. Must be nice to be able to release a tweet and move a stock to your favor with a shit track record. His motive is clear to short to get in like you stated. Agree 100% on Dash though. lol |
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#5879 |
2025 Pledge Member
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: USA
Watch: 5 digit models
Posts: 1,516
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Talking Stocks 2.0
FYI...
3:40p ET 12/21/2020 - Benzinga *Velodyne Lidar shares are trading higher following a report indicating Apple is targeting electric car production as early as 2024 and is expected to partner with outside lidar companies for some sensors. |
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#5880 | |
2025 Pledge Member
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: USA
Watch: 5 digit models
Posts: 1,516
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Quote:
Many of us seem to have low expectations on DASH :) |
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