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24 December 2020, 06:20 AM | #5911 |
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7sins can we move into taxes topic next? haha Best ways to leverage short/long term gains (tools or links)? You're like a future google search, more robust, detailed, and to the point. Don't have to click 30 links to find what I'm looking for. LOL
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24 December 2020, 06:34 AM | #5912 |
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7sins; Incredibly helpful explanation. Thanks to everyone (I feel if I tried to list names I would leave out someone that has been a major resource) that helps educate us and provide investment tips on this board!
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24 December 2020, 06:36 AM | #5913 | |
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Great post. Thank you. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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24 December 2020, 08:08 AM | #5914 |
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Wow. Thanks everyone for all the great information.
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24 December 2020, 08:49 AM | #5915 |
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Hey guys, been a while since I’ve been in this thread and happy to see it’s still rolling! Just read the last couple pages but seems there are some Palantir bulls here? Love palantir and karp and thiel! It’s one of my healthier holdings and excited for its potential growth. Plus can’t wait until they announce some private/commercial contracts(bmw abbvie Accenture att Boeing etc)
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24 December 2020, 09:07 AM | #5916 | |
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Disclaimer: everything I say below likely reflects my own bias and is not intended to dissuade from an investment if one believes in the overall business fundamentals of PLTR (product does not equal business). PLTR formed in 2003, at that time offering bespoke AI/ML solutions to businesses/government. It was novel, because we were just starting to see the computing power required to be able to run these types of analyses with any sort of regularity, and consequently PLTR was offering something innovative to it’s customers. However, bespoke AI/ML isn’t cheap. It’s also not a good business model if you are looking to grow rapidly and have a broad reach. So, eventually they developed a SaaS platform that allows businesses to collate their data and run some basic AI/ML on it, sort of as pre-fab data analytics. PLTR isn’t alone in this space - AYX, AI, SPLK all offer something more or less the same, and it is my understanding that even CRM is starting this with their customers. Each business has it’s niche and target area, but the general idea is similar at least: group data from a variety of places, and offer basic data analytics. For most businesses, this is far superior to what they can do in Excel running simple stats. Still doesn’t come cheap though, making it somewhat limiting (I believe PLTR has something like 120ish clients - not huge). Now, this plug-and-play software is great for the time being, but it is my belief that this is not sustainable. By that, what I mean is that if we are making the argument that data and analytics are going to be game changing and transformative to a business, then it does not make sense to make this an afterthought and use generic approaches - there is only so much you can do with that, as the number of complexities involved in selecting the best model for the type of data you have and question you are asking, fitting parameters and hyperparameters, how to train and validate the data etc is not straight forward. Your predictions are only as good as your model, and if your business depends on your predictions, you need to make them the best possible. As such, I think businesses need their own custom algorithms and dedicated full time AI/ML engineers. Think of it this way: we can all do simple P/E calculations in Excel, and some of us might even generate a basic DCF model. But I’m sure most of the big firms are using fairly custom algorithms to generate their stock forecasts, let alone the intraday algos that run the market. Furthermore, consider the notion that if data is going to be as important as we think it is, there needs to be a place to store that data. Some businesses might have their own servers, but for many it will be on the cloud, using AWS, Azure or Google. I would imagine these mega caps have software and capability to do data analytics in there as well. Overall, it is my expectation that for any business to be competitive over the next 10-15 years, no matter what the business is, some element of AI/ML/analytics needs to be employed in a custom fashion to stay ahead of the competition. This means putting data collection, storage, integration and custom analytics at the forefront. The problem and limitation currently is simply that the demand for AI/ML overwhelms the number of people who have expertise in the area. I do not expect that to be the case forever, and at some point it becomes more economical and more advantageous to hire an internal team dedicated to it rather than contract out. By that token, I do not believe that PLTR has a sufficient moat in the AI/ML space. As such, for me personally I will trade PLTR when the opportunity arises given it is hot on Wall Street currently, but it will not be a long term hold for me. Again, this is just my bias as someone who works in the area and does not address specifically the financials of PLTR or related businesses so take my comments with a grain of salt. |
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24 December 2020, 09:41 AM | #5917 | |
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The client list of only 120 is definitely a trigger point. Why Karp thought having solely engineers for so long instead of hiring a solid sales team was a concern in my research. I held it off to them being tied to secretive operations in the beginning for the most part. Now, the sales team is somewhat out in full force selling the Foundry product. I also have heard it is somewhat clunky and takes some getting use too. I have also heard from military personal that this software is more efficient than anything else they have by a long shot. As you have mentioned this space cost a ton of money. Most companies will need multiple analyst's from PLTR to keep them up to speed on needs. I think the government side is obviously the easy part for them. The Foundry product model is the big question and can their growth model actually be sustainable for the commercial side. This is the component I think all the investors want to see. Can that commercial growth be achieved and sustained. I've watched military software demos and police demos. For them it makes complete sense. I cant wait for the demo day next month to get a true vision of the Foundry product. Most of what I've seen is a dated version of the product. I would love to hear your view of the demo next month! I think we can go on for days about this company back and forth. Like 7sins stated we are still in the early innings. Can we make it to the World Series or even the playoffs is questionable for sure. Cheers |
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24 December 2020, 09:47 AM | #5918 |
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Thanks 7Sins. Would buy you a beverage if the world is not so mucked up and you are on the left coast
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24 December 2020, 10:17 AM | #5919 | |
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24 December 2020, 11:13 AM | #5920 | |
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I agree! For context, I work in AI/ML too in one of the larger cap companies, and more specifically one that is involved in building our own ML platform for other engineers to experiment on. What PLTR is trying to do will NOT scale, and they will hit a wall pretty soon. But above everything @logo has mentioned, I interviewed with Palantir few years ago and know friends who work there. Some were early employees. I don’t know how much has changed, but they’re just a tech consulting business hyped up to be this big data / analytics all-in-one solution that do “marvelous” things. Their core IP is just reusable software (think of this as Excel). They fly out forward deployment engineers to clients’ offices to install their software, hook up their databases and do all the integrations etc. Their recent ramp up on sales proves that they’re doubling down on this biz strategy. But this is just my opinion. I may be biased, but I’m also interested in finance, and I try my best to avoid being burned. My tech holdings are just the FAANGs. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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24 December 2020, 11:24 AM | #5921 |
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So companies/govi are shelling out millions of dollars just to get a beefed up excel sheet? Their product is also beating out in house contractors on the defense side. How do they keep winning contracts from your perspective? Thats what keeps me coming back. If this is so easy and can be done cheaper why are people forking out millions to them? Are they showing something we are not seeing? I think the Gotham product is more advanced then what is being said here. Foundry & Apollo are my main concern.
Demo Link - https://investors.palantir.com/news-...lo%20platforms. |
24 December 2020, 11:44 AM | #5922 | |
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Being prior military, I can vouch for the govt/military always throwing around cash to buy software that solves 1 of the 36 problems, while creating 17 more problems. They pretty much created the MSFT business model of “just release it ASAP and allow the users to tell us what needs to be fixed.” It was infuriating on more than one occasion, but I can easily believe that anyone at a demo had that “this is so much better than what we used to have” moment. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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24 December 2020, 11:54 AM | #5923 | |
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24 December 2020, 12:20 PM | #5924 | |||
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That said, I’ll definitely check out the product demo. Again, I am biased. I probably underestimate the utility they bring to businesses without AI/ML, and overestimate the need for custom applications so my comments are just one piece of the PLTR investment story. |
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24 December 2020, 12:46 PM | #5925 | |
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24 December 2020, 11:10 PM | #5926 |
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BABA is down about 9% pre-market due to an anti-monopoly investigation. Anyone have an opinion whether BABA is a buy at this level?
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25 December 2020, 12:48 AM | #5927 |
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I just purchased a few long dated calls because of the big drop over the past few weeks.
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25 December 2020, 01:32 AM | #5928 |
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You don’t want to be on the wrong side of the Chinese government
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25 December 2020, 01:49 AM | #5929 |
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25 December 2020, 02:13 AM | #5930 |
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25 December 2020, 02:29 AM | #5931 |
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https://seekingalpha.com/article/439...real-is-threat
Since the failed IPO of Ant and now that Ma is in relative disgrace, the stock has lost ove 32% in two months. I usually like to buy when on red days, but in this case it looks like a falling knife and without knowing what could happen to the group, I would be extremely cautious. If it falls under $180, I may open a small position. |
25 December 2020, 03:07 AM | #5932 | |
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Many of my high networth $10M+ are VERY worried about the estate tax minimum being lowered next year. Currently it is $11.5M and there are talks of lowering this minimum. My clients, specifically those that are older, are gifting their securities to their children and or a LLC not setup in their name to prepare in case the minimum is lowered. Lastly, not here to bring in politics but if the dems sweep both the house and senate you can expect your taxes to rise next year (which would cause more demand for muni bonds fyi). There are many talks of raising the long term cap gain rates as well, as this country will need to pay for all of this stimulus somehow. Thus a lot of my clients are selling this year in anticipation of taxes rising next year. Specifically if they have positions they plan on selling prior to a year (thus ST gain regardless) and the possibly of LT cap gains (Taxed at federal tax bracket) rising as well. This is why the municipal market is mostly owned by retail (70%) and typically those in a higher tax bracket. From a tax perspective, not all muni bonds are state tax free, all of them are federally tax free. If you live in a state with no state income tax (fl, tx, wa etc) you do not ever need to pay any tax on muni bonds. If you live in CA (thank you 13% top state tax bracket), you HAVE to buy CA muni bonds to not pay state taxes. If I am a CA resident and buy a NY muni bond, then I have to pay CA state tax but no federal taxes. Why would I buy non-CA muni bonds as a CA resident? This is because I can get broader state diversification and can find higher yields across the country, especially mid grade munis, even after paying CA state tax. This is also because CA does not issue an abudnace of midgrade and high yield muni paper despite account for 13% of issuance in the country, number 2 right behind New York. Muni bonds in states with no state income tax typically have less demand and higher yields. Anyone else want to build on this from a tax perspective? Would love to hear thoughts on what others are doing.
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25 December 2020, 03:26 AM | #5933 | |
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25 December 2020, 03:31 AM | #5934 |
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We should start a new thread on tax and estate related investment vehicles.
Life insurance policies are tax free and private because it is between you(as a policy holder and beneficiary(if you choose to disclose.). Interest income is still taxable but insurance policies are another way to avoid a chunk of tax liability. That is how some people keep their mistress(es) happy/setup financially! :). An additional advantage is that you are free to change the beneficiary of your life insurance policy with little to no fuss depending on how you set it up. That also keep the mistress(es) in check. :) |
25 December 2020, 03:36 AM | #5935 | |
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I would definitely be interested in a real estate thread and a tax/accountant thread... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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28 December 2020, 09:43 PM | #5936 |
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Expecting another quiet week again, Futures up on relief bill but not much else is moving markets.
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28 December 2020, 11:55 PM | #5937 |
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Semis getting a boost for 2021
AMD, Broadcom among Mizuho's top semiconductor stocks for 2021 https://seekingalpha.com/news/364747...tocks-for-2021 I am long QCOM, AVGO
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29 December 2020, 01:06 AM | #5938 |
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A few of my favorites (SE, TTD) getting destroyed today. Chalking it up to end of year movement, though SE might be getting some residual effects from BABA (even if SE has nothing to do with China).
Good dip opportunity here as we head into the new year.
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29 December 2020, 02:06 AM | #5939 |
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My green energy portfolio are going bonkers today as that market is forecasted to grow 25 fold in this upcoming decade.
Money moving out of internet and work from home stuff. |
29 December 2020, 02:18 AM | #5940 |
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