A word of advice: Grab the SS Sub-date 16610 while you can!!

[kyle L]

Also go pick up a nice vintage Explorer 114270.

[Jocke]

Originally Posted by JJ Irani

More proof of my prediction, guys!!

Proof and Rolex sales strategy is not the same.

If I say my dealer have 20 of them for sale, is that proof they are easy to get?

:r ofl:

[JJ Irani]

Originally Posted by kyle L

Also go pick up a nice vintage Explorer 114270.

[JJ Irani]

Originally Posted by Jocke

Proof and Rolex sales strategy is not the same.

If I say my dealer have 20 of them for sale, is that proof they are easy to get?

:r ofl:

Time will tell, buddy.........and I will be proved right.

Just look at the number of GMT-II 16710 that are floating around. But can you get one at a reasonable price today?

JJ

[Brunotheboxer]

Some guy from N.Z. just offered me a Brand new used Mazda for my 16610.

Should I do this deal guys??

[Cru Jones]

I'm hesitant to jump in the middle of this entertaining sheep-jocke battle, but, to me, a non-expert, the two situations aren't perfectly parallel. The new GMT had a new hand color and blinged out bracelet, while the sub's changes aren't so visually dramatic, IMO. Also, the existing pool of subs is much greater than the GMT, so those that really, really want an old sub should be able to find one.....if anything, I'd venture to guess that all the non-WIS old sub owners might flood the market while trying to flip to acquire the new sub.

Reading tea leaves here.....

[Jocke]

Originally Posted by kyle L

Also go pick up a nice vintage Explorer 114270.

When they release the 114270 so was there a japanese TV star that buy one and everyone want one. They was out of
stock everywhere and the go for the double retail price. 6 months later Rolex just send a dozen to every AD and no one
wants them longer and you can get 20% off when you buy one.

So I will say the new Sub will be expensive when they release the first batch and then it will be like normal again.
We see it everytime Rolex release a new model, it was not long ago since the green Milgauss was very hard to get.
Next one was the Deep Sea, now it back to normal too. The 16610 will takes time before it will be a watch that the
collectors are looking for. I will say the last ones will be like the last Sea Dweller's, some believe they will be
very expensive but that was not happend.

[JJ Irani]

Originally Posted by Brunotheboxer

Some guy from N.Z. just offered me a Brand new used Mazda for my 16610.

Should I do this deal guys??

You deserve that title of bastid tossa, ya bastid tossa!!

[Jocke]

Originally Posted by Brunotheboxer

Some guy from N.Z. just offered me a Brand new used Mazda for my 16610.

Should I do this deal guys??

Be careful, I've heard there is a dead sheep at the trunk.

And whatever the seller says, it's not made of stainless steel.

[Brunotheboxer]

Originally Posted by JJ Irani

You deserve that title of bastid tossa, ya bastid tossa!!

I might get this tattooed to my arm.

Originally Posted by Jocke

Be careful, I've heard there is a dead sheep at the trunk.

And whatever the seller says, it's not made of stainless steel.

Its either a dead sheep or 7 years worth of arm hair that was shaved off and stored away.

[Nicko]

I'll be hanging on to mine.....

Thanks JJ...

[Tools]

I think that there may be quite a few 16610's still in the warehouse/shipping chain..

I'm just guessing........ But I feel that if Rolex knew that they were coming out with a new ceramic model........ and the lines are already forming..., if they had too many 16610's on display, everybody would then want a "discount" because it's the old model...

But.... if they only let a few trickle out (16610's), everybody would think that there was only a few left and still pay MSRP - just to get their hands on one..

Something I find odd is that nobody is running to get the "new serials" that we know the latest 16610's have the same way that they had to have the latest "V" or "M" serial SD and GMT; with the thinking that the "last" serial would somehow be worth more later on...

After watching the SD and GMT phenomena, here is my prediction...

The Sub 16610 will still be available for a year or so at MSRP (just like the GMt and SD were).... Then, like the GMT, it will be unavailable and suddenly the re-sellers will spike the price and BNIB prices will jump before they settle back down.. (this was not seen with the SD)

I think that the LV will be available even longer and has seen it's hey-day......... anybody who wants green will only want the new ceramic........
... Let's call it the "LVc"

[JJ Irani]

Originally Posted by Tools

I think that there may be quite a few 16610's still in the warehouse/shipping chain..

I'm just guessing........ But I feel that if Rolex knew that they were coming out with a new ceramic model........ and the lines are already forming..., if they had too many 16610's on display, everybody would then want a "discount" because it's the old model...

But.... if they only let a few trickle out (16610's), everybody would think that there was only a few left and still pay MSRP - just to get their hands on one..

Something I find odd is that nobody is running to get the "new serials" that we know the latest 16610's have the same way that they had to have the latest "V" or "M" serial SD and GMT; with the thinking that the "last" serial would somehow be worth more later on...

After watching the SD and GMT phenomena, here is my prediction...

The Sub 16610 will still be available for a year or so at MSRP (just like the GMt and SD were).... Then, like the GMT, it will be unavailable and suddenly the re-sellers will spike the price and BNIB prices will jump before they settle back down.. (this was not seen with the SD)

I think that the LV will be available even longer and has seen it's hey-day......... anybody who wants green will only want the new ceramic........
... Let's call it the "LVc"

Thanks for your excellent and well thought out response, Larry.......appreciated!!

[2th Dr]

Originally Posted by Brunotheboxer

Some guy from N.Z. just offered me a Brand new used Mazda for my 16610.

Should I do this deal guys??

[2th Dr]

Originally Posted by Cru Jones

I'm hesitant to jump in the middle of this entertaining sheep-jocke battle, but, to me, a non-expert, the two situations aren't perfectly parallel. The new GMT had a new hand color and blinged out bracelet, while the sub's changes aren't so visually dramatic, IMO. Also, the existing pool of subs is much greater than the GMT, so those that really, really want an old sub should be able to find one.....if anything, I'd venture to guess that all the non-WIS old sub owners might flood the market while trying to flip to acquire the new sub.

Reading tea leaves here.....

Valid points, IMHO.

[BASSETHOUNDS]

No need to buy one ..... tomorrow 207 will be drawn out of that hat

[JJ Irani]

Originally Posted by BASSETHOUNDS

No need to buy one ..... tomorrow 207 will be drawn out of that hat

Yes, of course............some lucky bloke will get a free one tonight!! Remember, it's already the 7th morning here and the draw takes place tonight.

JJ

[Tools]

Originally Posted by JJ Irani

Thanks for your excellent and well thought out response, Larry.......appreciated!!

I had to come up with something that everybody else hadn't said.......

As you say............ Let's see in 6 months.............

[JJ Irani]

Originally Posted by Tools

I had to come up with something that everybody else hadn't said.......

As you say............ Let's see in 6 months.............

Yes, I did smile at the conjecture on your part...........but you never know.......some of it could be true!!

Time will tell though.........just like it did for the GMT-II 16710.

JJ

[Jocke]

I just read the header again JJ.

Whats gonna happend? Will we lose our hands?

[wantonebad]

I just had some "dish-rag" offer me a trade, my 16613 for his 16610 even up, same serial number same wear and tear. I know the 16610 is more popular but even up? hard for me not to be insulted a little, needless to say I said no.

I agree with you Larry, the 16610 has been their bread and butter for decades I don't see them just letting it peter-out with nothing to take its place for 6 months, they will be around I'm sure till the end, and at no discount.

And now people selling or reselling a 16610 will think they have a rising commodity on their hands, "not so fast" is my thinking

[landroverking]

There seems to be a boat load of them out there right now. Bernard, DeMesy and Wingate in Texas all have SS Subs starting at about $3800. The Sea Dweller has now been gone about a year and the used prices have edged up about $1k at the most. Don't think we have yet seen the TT Bluesy shoot up in price or the more rare TT Black dial, not even the 18Kt gold price has pushed up that much since the new "c" models have come out at the AD's. Not saying they will not be hard to come by in the years ahead, but for right now anyone who wants to add a Sub Date or even the SD will not have any trouble finding a mint one at a fair price. Thats goes for SS, TT and 18Kt gold.

[therolexguy]

Buy buy buy!

[rolexnovice]

Well. If I was to ever buy a Rolex, it would be a Subamariner. So will I have the ability to buy the Sub by the end of this year? Thanks JJ and TRF!

[dalip]

Interesting thoughts/conjecture....
I guess if I were in the market right now for new Rolex watches I'd go:

Latest serial of old Sub BNIB
New Sub Ceramic

Keep them both....

But alas I am not.....status quo for now.....South of France, UK, Geneva, Madrid and Seville coming up.....MUST save!!!
what is it with airfares from Australia....cripplingly bad....

[Casey VP-26]

JJ I'll go along with you on this one. I can remember going into AD's over the years and two that I was friendly with were always saying it was hard to get the 16610 back then. In fact I remember a couple occasions when the dealers told me in August, that they were told not to promise any 16610's to customers for Christmas. So I remember them as not always an easy watch to find when they were in full production. Good Point, remember when you are proven to be right some of us were with you.

[JEC]

I think the GMTIIc isn't as popular because it's just a sub with a 24 hour bezel. The "old" GMT looked and felt like a distinct model with the thinner case, smaller crown, and different dimensions.

I don't like the sub as much as the (pre ceramic) GMT. Thus I don't like the GMTIIc. Never mind the lack of coloured bezels, that's a whole other kettle of fish. And I'm pissed that prices have shot up so much on pre-ceramic models, because now they are all out of my price range.

[TheBluePrince]

Originally Posted by mborner

There's just too many SS 16610's out there.

+1. There isn't a shortage of these and never will be. As we know, Rolex don't release production figures but i'm sure the 16600 must now be the biggest selling Rolex SS sports model ever.

[ArthurPE]

that's what the first dealer said...he used it as a reason to not discount the watch...
the second dealer was more than happy to sell me one with a nice discount...

only time will tell

[Esexx]

Originally Posted by TerryF

Im beginning to wonder if JJ doesn't earn commission from all these "suggestions"

I think he is actually a Swiss Counter Intellegence Agent disguised as a Kiwi (the farthest away from Geneva) and planted in TRF to "make" people buy more Rolex.